????星巴克公司（Starbucks）上周早些時候宣布,，該公司計(jì)劃斥資1億美元收購面包連鎖店La Boulange Bakery,。2012年下半年,，與這項(xiàng)收購相關(guān)的投資將使得該公司每股收益被稀釋0.02美元,，預(yù)計(jì)明年還會進(jìn)一步稀釋,。

????La Boulange Bakery在舊金山灣區(qū)擁有19個零售網(wǎng)點(diǎn)，向該地區(qū)數(shù)家高檔餐館,、酒店和特色雜貨店出售產(chǎn)品,。這次收購旨在改善星巴克連鎖店提供的面包和點(diǎn)心，但在我們看來,，它是霍華德?舒爾茨及其團(tuán)隊(duì)的一次豪賭,。

????與去年末收購果汁制造商Evolution Fresh類似，這次收購?fù)瑯邮腔谛前涂斯镜摹岸嗲缿?zhàn)略”,，即通過全國性的門店網(wǎng)絡(luò)引進(jìn)一種新產(chǎn)品,，等新產(chǎn)品的品牌知名度得到提升之后，再將其擴(kuò)充至包裝消費(fèi)品渠道,。這種戰(zhàn)略背后的基礎(chǔ)似乎是星巴克VIA即溶咖啡的成功,。就La Boulange品牌產(chǎn)品來說，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是,，作為星巴克旗下的產(chǎn)品之一,，VIA戰(zhàn)略是成功的，但這種成功不一定就能移植到一個非星巴克品牌的產(chǎn)品上面,。它要想獲得全國消費(fèi)者的認(rèn)可需要花費(fèi)的時間或許會長于預(yù)期,。至于La Boulange產(chǎn)品的推出計(jì)劃，星巴克公司僅僅表示,，這些產(chǎn)品將在2013年首先出現(xiàn)在星巴克舊金山分店之中,，最初將以糕點(diǎn)和面包類產(chǎn)品為主。

????盡管我們理解多渠道策略的吸引力,，也可以看到潛在的好處,，但如果歷史可以提供借鑒的話，假設(shè)星巴克的所有舉措都會成功卻不太可能站得住腳,。星巴克是一家令人印象深刻的公司,，3年多來,，我們一直在關(guān)注他們的股票。然而,，這家公司似乎已經(jīng)進(jìn)入到一個投資階段,，這種局面的確會改變其股票的前景。同時推出兩項(xiàng)重大舉措（果汁和食品）增加了股票下挫的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),；就每股收益而言,，營業(yè)收入增速放緩在未來造成的后果將大于過去幾年。

????鑒于把產(chǎn)品引入店內(nèi)所需的資本投資相對有限,，Evolution Fresh戰(zhàn)略雖然還沒有獲得驗(yàn)證,，但很可能是個利好消息，短期內(nèi)就會顯現(xiàn)出積極的效果,。將多渠道戰(zhàn)略應(yīng)用于食品領(lǐng)域意味著每股收益將在未來幾年中面臨更多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。另一個額外的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是，星巴克公司在全美各地分店中迅速擴(kuò)大La Boulange品牌產(chǎn)品供應(yīng),，這一舉動有可能危及La Boulange品牌迄今為止賴以安身立命,、取得成功的完整性。

????根據(jù)星巴克管理層就此項(xiàng)收購案舉行的電話會議,，我們可以判斷出La Boulange戰(zhàn)略很可能需要星巴克公司方面投入巨額資金。未來幾周內(nèi),，更多細(xì)節(jié)將進(jìn)一步明朗化,，但我們目前認(rèn)為，短期的投資很可能將是巨大的,，而回報(bào)（或許也是巨大的,，但這一點(diǎn)無法保證）或許需要數(shù)年時間方能實(shí)現(xiàn)。

????譯者：任文科

????Starbucks announced earlier this week that it plans to purchase La Boulange Bakery for $100 million. Investments pertaining to the acquisition will dilute earnings by $0.02 per share in the second half of 2012, and further dilution is expected next year.

????La Boulange Bakery operates 19 retail locations in the San Francisco Bay area and sells its products to several upscale restaurants, hotels, and specialty grocery stores in the region. The acquisition is aimed at improving the baked goods that Starbucks (SBUX) offers within its stores and represents, in our view, a significant gamble on the part of Howard Schultz and his team.

????This move, along with the Evolution Fresh juice acquisition late last year, is based on Starbucks' "multi-channel strategy" of introducing a new product through the national network of stores and then expanding the offering into the consumer packaged goods channel once the brand gains traction. The rationale behind this strategy seems to be based on the success of the Starbucks VIA product. The risk, in the case of La Boulange products, is that the VIA strategy was successful as a Starbucks product, but that success may not transfer over to a non-Starbucks branded offering or that it may take longer than expected for the brand to resonate with consumers on a national level. In terms of the scheduled rollout of the La Boulange offering, the company only said that the products will first show up in Starbucks' San Francisco stores in 2013. The offerings will initially focus on pastries and bread.

????While we understand the appeal of the multi-channel strategy and can see the potential benefits, assuming that all of Starbucks' initiatives are going to be successful is unlikely to be the right stance, if history is any guide. Starbucks is an impressive organization and we have been behind the stock for over three years. However, the company seems to have entered into an investment phase and that does change the outlook for the stock. Entering into two significant initiatives (juice and food) at once increases the risk of setbacks for the stock; the consequences, for EPS, of any slowdown in the top line are larger going forward than they would have been over the past few years.

????The Evolution Fresh strategy, while still unproven, could be more of an immediate-term positive given the limited capital investment required to get the product into the stores. Applying the multi-channel strategy to food implies more risk to EPS over the next few years. There is also the additional risk that, in quickly scaling the La Boulange offerings across the domestic store base, the company may compromise the integrity of what made La Boulange successful to date.

????Based on the conference call about the acquisition held by management, our view is that the La Boulange strategy will likely require significant capital investment on the part of Starbucks. More detail will emerge in the coming weeks but currently we believe that the near-term investment could be significant and the reward, while possibly substantial but not guaranteed, could take years to materialize.