????你是否曾在購(gòu)物的時(shí)候,，看到一件非常適合自己的夾克,？然后看了一眼價(jià)簽，卻變得有些猶豫,。你應(yīng)該現(xiàn)在買下這件完美的衣服,，還是等到必將來(lái)臨的換季促銷時(shí)，再看看能否買到這件衣服,？如果店鋪告訴你,，這件衣服數(shù)量有限，或者適合你的尺碼只有兩件了,，你會(huì)怎么辦,？

????筆者近期與凱倫?張教授合作進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，隨著消費(fèi)者對(duì)購(gòu)物的戰(zhàn)略性考慮越來(lái)越多,，后悔和可獲得性錯(cuò)覺(jué)等行為動(dòng)機(jī)成為至關(guān)重要的因素,，應(yīng)該在定價(jià)策略中發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。

????如果消費(fèi)者將自己的選擇行為結(jié)果,，與未選擇行為結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比后,，發(fā)現(xiàn)后者對(duì)他們更加有利，這時(shí)就會(huì)產(chǎn)生后悔情緒,。換言之,，如果上面提到的夾克在未來(lái)促銷時(shí)可以獲得7折的優(yōu)惠,，他們就會(huì)后悔現(xiàn)在以更高的價(jià)格買下了這件衣服。同樣,，如果在未來(lái)促銷時(shí),，適合他們的尺寸已經(jīng)售完，他們則會(huì)后悔現(xiàn)在沒(méi)有出手購(gòu)買,。

????消費(fèi)者由于缺乏處理所有相關(guān)信息的能力,，進(jìn)而會(huì)產(chǎn)生可獲得性錯(cuò)覺(jué)。消費(fèi)者需要考慮那件夾克現(xiàn)在的受歡迎程度,，來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)它未來(lái)的可獲得性,。如果消費(fèi)者認(rèn)為出現(xiàn)不確定結(jié)果的概率要高于實(shí)際概率，此時(shí)也會(huì)出現(xiàn)可獲得性錯(cuò)覺(jué),。即便實(shí)際概率并不明確,，消費(fèi)者也往往會(huì)表現(xiàn)得好像他們?cè)趦?nèi)心已經(jīng)感知到這種可能性。

????有趣的是,，零售商可以通過(guò)引發(fā)可獲得性錯(cuò)覺(jué),，來(lái)刺激消費(fèi)者的后悔情緒。他們可以通過(guò)標(biāo)識(shí)牌強(qiáng)調(diào)庫(kù)存有限,，或者發(fā)布較少數(shù)量的商品,，來(lái)達(dá)到這個(gè)目的。如果你發(fā)現(xiàn)在貨架上僅有兩件適合自己尺寸的衣服,，你會(huì)想當(dāng)然地認(rèn)為這件商品供應(yīng)量有限,。許多電子商務(wù)零售商，比如亞馬遜（Amazon）等,，都會(huì)明確標(biāo)注每件商品的剩余庫(kù)存,。

????這是一種聰明的策略，因?yàn)榭色@得性錯(cuò)覺(jué)對(duì)消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買決定的影響要大于后悔,。因此,，根據(jù)這種錯(cuò)覺(jué)開展的營(yíng)銷活動(dòng)往往會(huì)比只強(qiáng)調(diào)后悔的營(yíng)銷活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生更好的效果。

????當(dāng)然,，并不是所有的購(gòu)買行為都會(huì)受到這些行為動(dòng)機(jī)的影響,。如果你看中的是普通的貼身內(nèi)衣而不是夾克，會(huì)怎么樣,？這種內(nèi)衣在許多零售商店里都能買到,。不論今天買還是以后買，消費(fèi)者都不太可能后悔,。對(duì)于這類商品,，天天低價(jià)策略才是最佳選擇,。相反,，那些會(huì)引起后悔情緒的商品,，則更適合降價(jià)促銷策略。憑借龐大的銷售交易數(shù)據(jù)集,，以及零售商的經(jīng)驗(yàn),，我們可以確定消費(fèi)者在購(gòu)買不同商品時(shí)的行為動(dòng)機(jī)。零售商在確定一件商品是否會(huì)導(dǎo)致后悔之后,，就可以利用我們的算法,，決定到底應(yīng)該采取天天低價(jià)策略，還是降價(jià)促銷策略,。

????忽視這些行為動(dòng)機(jī),，對(duì)于零售商來(lái)說(shuō)非常危險(xiǎn)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn),，零售商忽視這些行為可能導(dǎo)致庫(kù)存過(guò)低,，同時(shí)失去14%的潛在需求。鑒于零售商的利潤(rùn)空間相對(duì)較小,，14%的數(shù)字非同小可,，因?yàn)樗赡芤馕吨?0%的利潤(rùn)。

????各公司越來(lái)越重視定價(jià)策略,，因?yàn)樗麄円庾R(shí)到這是決策過(guò)程中最重要的手段之一,。商業(yè)的其他方面，如運(yùn)營(yíng)與供應(yīng)鏈等,，之前一直很受關(guān)注,。而定價(jià)將是下一個(gè)重點(diǎn)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文奧扎爾普?奧澤爾教授來(lái)自德克薩斯大學(xué)達(dá)拉斯分校內(nèi)瓦金達(dá)爾管理學(xué)院,，現(xiàn)任麻省理工學(xué)院斯隆管理學(xué)院客座教授,。此外，奧扎爾普?奧澤爾教授也是《牛津定價(jià)管理手冊(cè)》一書的作者之一,，及論文《降價(jià)還是天天低價(jià),？行為動(dòng)機(jī)的作用》的作者之一。

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????Have you ever been shopping and found a great jacket with a perfect fit? Then you look at the price tag and pause. Should you buy that perfect item now or wait to see if it’s still available during the inevitable end-of-season sale? What if the store told you that it only had a limited number left, or only had two on the rack in your size?

????In a recent study I conducted with Prof. Karen Zheng, we found that as consumers have become more strategic about purchases, behavioral motives like regret and availability misperception are significant factors and should play a key role in pricing strategy.

????Regret happens when consumers compare the outcome of a chosen action with that of the unchosen one and realize they would have been better off with the latter. In other words, they may regret buying the jacket now at the higher price if it turns out to be available during the sale for 30% off. Similarly, they may regret not buying it now if their size is gone by the time of the sale.

????The availability misperception occurs due to lack of ability to process all relevant information. The consumer needs to consider how popular that jacket is now to anticipate its availability later. It also occurs simply because consumers perceive an uncertain outcome to be more likely than its actual probability. Consumers often behave as if they have mentally perceived the probabilities even when those probabilities are not explicitly known.

????Interestingly, retailers can prime that sense of regret by triggering the availability misperception. They can do this by emphasizing limited inventory either with signage or just putting out less of that item. If you only found two jackets in your size on the rack, you’d likely assume it’s in limited supply. Many e-commerce retailers like Amazon do this by explicitly noting how much of each item is left in stock.

????This is a smart strategy, as availability misperception has a greater impact on consumers’ purchase decisions than regret. As a result, marketing campaigns that act on this misperception are more effective than ones that only emphasize regret.

????Of course not all purchases are affected by these behavioral motives. What if, instead of a jacket, you were looking at basic undershirts? Those tend to be readily available at many retailers. You aren’t likely going to experience regret whether you buy today or later. With that type of product, an everyday-low-price strategy is optimal. In contrast, products that will induce regret are better off using a markdown strategy. Large data sets available for sales transactions and the retailer’s experience help us determine consumers’ behavioral motives in purchasing various product lines. Once they determine whether it’s a regret-inducing product or not, retailers can use our algorithm to determine what the optimal everyday-low-price or mark downs should be.

????Ignoring these behavioral motives is dangerous for retailers. We found that it could lead the seller to under-stock too much and unnecessarily forgo up to 14% of potential demand. Given that retailers operate with relatively slim profit margins, 14% is very significant. It could result in 10% of profits.

????Companies are starting to pay a lot more attention to pricing strategy, realizing that it is one of the most important levers in the decision process. There has been a lot of attention to other aspects of the business like operations and supply chains. Pricing is the next frontier.

????Prof. ?zalp?zer is a visiting professor at MIT Sloan from the Naveen Jindal School of Management at the University of Texas at Dallas. He also is coeditorof the book The Oxford Handbook of Pricing Management and coauthor of the paper, “Markdown or Everyday-Low-Price? The Role of Behavioral Motives.”