????通用汽車（GM）召回了上千萬輛有缺陷汽車,，這很難不讓人們?nèi)ハ?，如果在本世紀(jì)初負(fù)責(zé)設(shè)計(jì)點(diǎn)火開關(guān)的設(shè)計(jì)團(tuán)隊(duì)中有更多的非工程師人員參與，情況是否會(huì)有所不同呢,？他們是否能更好地預(yù)見到和科技風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有關(guān)的社會(huì)影響以及聲譽(yù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)呢？一個(gè)不同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估團(tuán)隊(duì),，或者說一個(gè)由更多思路開闊的多面手賦予其靈感的團(tuán)隊(duì),，能否讓通用汽車避免在過去六個(gè)月付出超過17億美元的代價(jià)召回 2,800多萬輛汽車的厄運(yùn)呢？

????更寬泛地說,，就評(píng)估公司風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而言,，誰處于最有利的位置？預(yù)測(cè)自己的支付處理系統(tǒng)遭到網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊的可能性對(duì)一家零售企業(yè)來說是個(gè)關(guān)鍵問題嗎,？煙草行業(yè)從業(yè)者是否應(yīng)該關(guān)注電子煙預(yù)測(cè)普及率的準(zhǔn)確性或者監(jiān)管部門對(duì)人們使用電子煙的反應(yīng)呢,？今后的碳排放交易價(jià)格走勢(shì)如何？它可能會(huì)對(duì)煤炭和電力行業(yè)產(chǎn)生什么樣的影響？

????全世界的公司董事會(huì)都越來越關(guān)注風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——這項(xiàng)工作本質(zhì)上就是預(yù)測(cè)實(shí)際情況和預(yù)期之間可能出現(xiàn)的偏差,，但在預(yù)測(cè)未來方面誰處于最佳位置呢？原因是什么呢,？對(duì)于這個(gè)問題,，人們已經(jīng)進(jìn)行了有針對(duì)性的研究，但我認(rèn)為這些研究成果并未對(duì)公司培養(yǎng)現(xiàn)任和未來負(fù)責(zé)人的思路產(chǎn)生影響,。

????有說服力的學(xué)術(shù)研究表明,，專家對(duì)自身專業(yè)領(lǐng)域發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)的預(yù)測(cè)實(shí)際上還沒有非專家準(zhǔn)確，這和人們的直覺相去甚遠(yuǎn),。預(yù)測(cè)者越專業(yè),，所做預(yù)期的準(zhǔn)確程度就越低。出現(xiàn)這種情況的一個(gè)可能原因是我們會(huì)拘泥于自己所專注的領(lǐng)域,。這就好像我們手里拿著錘子,，然后無論看向哪里都會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)釘子——這種情況并不讓人感到意外。

????專家們的預(yù)測(cè)史充斥著失敗,。讓我們看看計(jì)算機(jī)市場(chǎng)以及計(jì)算機(jī)行業(yè)中處于領(lǐng)軍位置的專家所做的預(yù)測(cè)吧。1943年,，備受尊重的IBM董事長(zhǎng)托馬斯?沃森表示,，他相信會(huì)出現(xiàn)一個(gè)“差不多由五臺(tái)計(jì)算機(jī)構(gòu)成的全球市場(chǎng)?！?977年,，數(shù)字設(shè)備公司（Digital Equipment Corporation）創(chuàng)始人、總裁兼董事長(zhǎng)肯?奧爾森稱：“人們沒有理由產(chǎn)生在家里擺一臺(tái)計(jì)算機(jī)的想法,?！?/p>

????今天，全球計(jì)算機(jī)和平板電腦市場(chǎng)每年的規(guī)模已經(jīng)超過數(shù)億臺(tái),。沃森和奧爾森絕對(duì)都是行業(yè)先行者,，許多人都認(rèn)為他們是計(jì)算機(jī)領(lǐng)域的頂尖專家和預(yù)言者，但他們的預(yù)測(cè)和實(shí)際情況有著天壤之別,。

????實(shí)踐表明,，通信領(lǐng)域?qū)＜业念A(yù)測(cè)也準(zhǔn)確不到哪兒去,。1980年,，麥肯錫（McKinsey）的市場(chǎng)規(guī)模專家曾針對(duì)美國(guó)電話電報(bào)公司（AT&T）預(yù)計(jì)，到2000年全球手機(jī)市場(chǎng)中的用戶人數(shù)不會(huì)超過100萬人。而實(shí)際情況是,，這個(gè)數(shù)字遠(yuǎn)高于1億人,?？萍夹袠I(yè)專家、時(shí)任微軟（Microsoft）首席執(zhí)行官的史蒂夫?鮑爾默2007年曾直率地對(duì)蘋果公司（Apple）的iPhone做出這樣的預(yù)測(cè)：“iPhone絕不會(huì)獲得多少市場(chǎng)份額,，絕對(duì)不會(huì),。”結(jié)果呢,，市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)comScore的數(shù)據(jù)表明,，今年4月份iPhone的市場(chǎng)份額約為41%。請(qǐng)大家來判斷一下這樣的市場(chǎng)份額算不算大,。

????As GM GM -0.32% recalls millions of faulty vehicles, it’s hard not to wonder if the outcome would have been different if its product design team tasked to design ignition switches had involved more non-engineers in the early 2000s? Might they have been able to better predict the social impact and reputational risks associated with technological risks? Is it possible that a different risk group – inspired by broad-minded generalists – could have prevented the recall of more than 28 million vehicles over the last six months at a cost in excess of $1.7 billion?

????More broadly, who is best positioned to assess a company’s risks? Is it critical for a retailer to predict the likelihood of a cyber attack on its payment processing system? Should those in the tobacco industry care about the accuracy of their e-cigarette adoption projections, or the regulatory response to such developments? What about the future price of carbon and the impact it might have on the coal and power production industries?

????Increasingly, boardrooms around the world have focused on risk – a task that is essentially one of predicting possible deviations from expectations, but who is really best positioned to make predictions about the future and why? There’s been meaningful research conducted on this topic, but I don’t believe the findings have affected how organizations think about developing their current and future leaders.

????In a quite counter-intuitive finding, convincing academic work suggests that specialized experts may in fact be less accurate in their predictions of developments within their field than non-experts; the more focused the predictor, the less accurate the prediction. One reason this may be the case is that we humans become wedded to our areas of focus. We effectively acquire hammers…and not surprisingly, then find nails everywhere we look.

????The history of predictions made by experts is littered with failures. Let’s consider the market for computers and predictions made about them by leading specialists within the computer industry. Thomas Watson, the esteemed chairman of IBM IBM -0.72% , proclaimed in 1943 that he believed there to be “a world market for maybe five computers.” Later in 1977, the president, chairman, and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation Ken Olsen stated, “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”

????Today, the worldwide market for computers and tablets exceeds several hundred million units per year. Watson and Olsen were true pioneers and believed by many to be industry-leading experts and visionaries, but their predictions were way off the mark.

????Experts in communications have not proven any more accurate. Consider that McKinsey’s experts in market sizing projected for AT&T T 1.06% in 1980 that the worldwide market for mobile phones would fail to exceed 1 million subscribers by the year 2000. The actual number proved to be well north of 100 million subscribers. Consider also when tech specialist and then Microsoft MSFT 0.74% CEO Steve Ballmerbluntly made his prediction for the Apple iPhone in 2007: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” As it turns out, the device had an approximately 41% market share in April this year, according to market research firm comScore. I’ll leave it you to decide if that share is significant.