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預測商業(yè)風險的藝術(shù):為什么“非專家”做的更好

預測商業(yè)風險的藝術(shù):為什么“非專家”做的更好

Vikram Mansharamani 2014年07月23日
所謂術(shù)業(yè)有專攻,。在外科手術(shù),,科學研究等領(lǐng)域,專業(yè)化是成功的關(guān)鍵,。但就預測商業(yè)趨勢和風險而言,,專家們的預測往往跟現(xiàn)實有著云泥之別,讓人大跌眼鏡,。原因何在,?

????這些事例體現(xiàn)了專業(yè)化的一大缺陷,。我并不是說專業(yè)化本身有問題。在許多工作和領(lǐng)域中(外科,、科學研究等),,專業(yè)化是成功的關(guān)鍵。但在應(yīng)對不確定性和預測可能出現(xiàn)的情況方面,,我更愿意讓多面手來負責——這類人的經(jīng)驗多種多樣,,足以緩解上文中提到的“自認為手拿錘子”所引發(fā)的問題。

????對企業(yè)中各個層次的管理者來說,,以上事例的一個明確含義就是要尊重和珍視那些看似不相關(guān)的經(jīng)驗,。不要把應(yīng)聘財務(wù)職位的營銷事務(wù)管理人員拒之門外,,也不要認為零售公司負責人不能經(jīng)營建筑公司。培養(yǎng)未來負責人時,,現(xiàn)任領(lǐng)導應(yīng)當鼓勵他們擁有多種多樣的經(jīng)驗,,而不是局限于某個專業(yè)領(lǐng)域。

????本文作者維克拉姆?曼沙拉馬尼博士在耶魯大學(Yale University)教授倫理,、政治和經(jīng)濟課,,他是哈佛大學肯尼迪政府學院(Harvard Kennedy School)穆薩瓦-拉赫瑪尼(Mossavar-Rahmani)商業(yè)與政府中心高級研究員,著有《盛衰學:在金融泡沫破裂前發(fā)現(xiàn)它們》(Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst)一書,。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie

????These stories illustrate a major downside of specialization. I don’t mean to suggest that specialization unto itself is bad; in many functions and domains (surgery, scientific research, etc …), it is essential to success. But when it comes to navigating uncertainty and contemplating probabilistic scenarios, I’d rather have a generalist in charge—someone who has a breadth of experience diverse enough to mitigate the problematic hammer-carrying default setting.

????One obvious implication for managers at all levels of an organization is to respect and value seemingly unrelated experiences. Don’t dismiss the marketing executive applying for a finance position or the retail leader who thinks she can run a construction firm. And in grooming future leaders, current leaders should encourage a diversity of experience rather than narrow specialization.

????Vikram Mansharamani, PhD, is a lecturer at Yale University in the Program on Ethics, Politics, & Economics, a Senior Fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government at the Harvard Kennedy School, and the author of Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst.

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