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我在科技業(yè)的第一位老板迪克是個(gè)備受尊敬的工程經(jīng)理,，上大學(xué)時(shí)在校橄欖球隊(duì)打線鋒，看上去就像寶潔公司旗下清潔品牌朗白先生一樣,，只不過沒戴耳環(huán),。迪克曾經(jīng)費(fèi)勁心思教我，可惜我當(dāng)時(shí)太傲慢,，沒領(lǐng)會(huì)他的心意,。

大塊頭的迪克在辦公室里貼了一張條子寫著：“我可能不算聰明，但我肯定經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富,?！庇幸惶欤蚁窀銗鹤鲃∷频匾泊蛴×艘粡埣?，寫著“我可能不算經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富,，但我肯定聰明,?！比缓筚N在工位的隔板上。

迪克看到以后,，搖搖頭走開了,。我記得當(dāng)時(shí)以為，他肯定心情不好,。后來我才意識(shí)到,，他花了很多時(shí)間想讓我這顆榆木腦袋明白：聰明反被聰明誤,，而且我太自以為是了根本意識(shí)不到。

我小小的惡作劇真是既可悲又諷刺,，這完全是我的損失,，其實(shí)影響不到迪克。

缺乏謙虛精神,、或者說狂妄自大不僅會(huì)困擾頗有潛力的后輩,，一些有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的人也會(huì)碰到類似問題，原因我們后面細(xì)說,。不管什么人遇到,，后果往往都是很嚴(yán)重的。

要說過分自負(fù)曾導(dǎo)致許多管理者和企業(yè)失敗可能還略顯保守,。根據(jù)我的經(jīng)驗(yàn),，這是企業(yè)失敗最常見的原因?？杀氖沁@一切原本可以避免,。

在《只有偏執(zhí)狂才能生存》一書中，英特爾公司前首席執(zhí)行官安迪·葛洛夫警告說：“成功是自己的掘墓人,?！笔聦?shí)上，人生最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)莫過于登上巔峰,。因?yàn)樗械母?jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手都會(huì)奮力追趕你,。你也可能因?yàn)樽源蠖蛎洠Y(jié)果爬得高跌得重,。

安然,、世通公司、Adelphia——一個(gè)個(gè)倒閉的巨頭無異于一座座自大撐起的紙牌屋,。這三起臭名昭著的丑聞都發(fā)生在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫時(shí)代,，當(dāng)時(shí)市場(chǎng)泡沫由非理性繁榮催生，不過是狂妄自大換個(gè)說法罷了,。

美國(guó)在線與時(shí)代華納,、斯普林特和Nextel、戴姆勒與克萊斯勒等注定失敗的超級(jí)并購(gòu)都是基于不切實(shí)際的設(shè)想,，人們以為合并后起碼不會(huì)比獨(dú)立經(jīng)營(yíng)時(shí)差,。盡職調(diào)查過程中雙方在戰(zhàn)略、企業(yè)文化和技術(shù)方面不合適等關(guān)鍵問題統(tǒng)統(tǒng)忽略,。盡職調(diào)查的是為了盡量減少法律責(zé)任,，殊不知只是為失敗埋下伏筆。

企業(yè)家為何會(huì)根據(jù)錯(cuò)誤的前提得出過于樂觀的結(jié)論,，忽視愿景或企劃不一定能成功的關(guān)鍵證據(jù)和推斷,？行為狂妄只是表面,，核心是過于輕視失敗、將成功視為理所當(dāng)然的奇葩想法,。

血液檢測(cè)初創(chuàng)公司Theranos就是個(gè)很好的例子,。這家估值90億美元的公司核心業(yè)務(wù)是一種獨(dú)家技術(shù)，只需從患者手指取幾滴血就能實(shí)時(shí)得到結(jié)果,。遺憾的是,，調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)檢測(cè)結(jié)果造假。該兩年內(nèi)數(shù)以萬計(jì)的病人測(cè)試全部作廢,。Theranos自吹自擂的加州實(shí)驗(yàn)室失去了聯(lián)邦政府的檢測(cè)認(rèn)證,，監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)還下令公司首席執(zhí)行官伊麗莎白·霍姆斯行業(yè)禁入。

事后回想,，其實(shí)Theranos留下了許多蛛絲馬跡,。公司核心技術(shù)一直秘而不宣，投資者,，合作的連鎖藥店沃爾格林都無從了解,，醫(yī)學(xué)期刊上也沒見過相關(guān)分析。外人不得進(jìn)入該司實(shí)驗(yàn)室,。該司的首位投資人,、知名風(fēng)投資本家蒂姆·德雷珀是霍姆斯一家的朋友，之所以投資是認(rèn)為霍姆斯有類似蘋果之父喬布斯的個(gè)人魅力,。

或許最明顯的跡象就是,，去年霍姆斯接受時(shí)尚雜志Glamour采訪時(shí)說：“我有幸成長(zhǎng)在充滿激勵(lì)的環(huán)境里，從小我就相信沒有什么做不到的,?！蔽艺J(rèn)為，年輕的霍姆斯可能把父母的鼓勵(lì)太過當(dāng)真,。失去理智的自信在Theranos案例中隨處存在,，卻像指紋一樣肉眼難見。

就在Theranos露出真面目那會(huì)兒,，我看到對(duì)查爾斯·科赫在一次采訪中回憶,，身為科氏工業(yè)集團(tuán)創(chuàng)始人的父親將首席執(zhí)行官一職交給他之前說：“希望你的第一筆買賣失敗，否則你會(huì)覺得自己無比聰明,，實(shí)際上并不是,。”

聽起來,，老科赫和我過去的老板是同樣的用意,。不過老科赫的兒子一定是聽進(jìn)去了,，后來公司成長(zhǎng)為銷售額1150美元,、員工達(dá)10萬名的全球巨頭,。

才華橫溢的新人缺少謙虛精神其實(shí)很正常，然而在變?yōu)槌晒︻I(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的過程中,，總有一天會(huì)學(xué)會(huì)滿招損謙受益的道理,。要記得保持謙遜，未來的人生道路上有可能幫你大忙,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

My first boss in the tech industry was a highly respected engineering manager named Dick. A former college football lineman who looked just like Mr. Clean but without the earrings, Dick tried his best to teach me lessons that I was unfortunately too arrogant to appreciate.

The big guy had a sign in his office that said, “I may not be smart, but I sure am experienced.” One day as a prank I printed up a sign that said “I may not be experienced, but I sure am smart” and hung it on my cubicle wall.

When Dick saw it, he just shook his head and walked away. I remember thinking he must be in a bad mood. I later came to realize something he had been trying to get through my thick skull for the longest time: that I was too smart for my own good and too full of myself to realize it.

The sad irony of my little prank was completely lost on me, but apparently not on Dick.

Lack of humility or hubris doesn’t just plague young up-and-comers with more potential than they perhaps deserve. It’s also common among those with enough experience to know better but, for reasons we’ll get to in a minute, don’t. And the outcome is often catastrophic.

To say that exaggerated overconfidence has caused the tragic demise of many executives and their companies is a gross understatement. In my experience, it’s among the most common business failure modes. What makes it tragic is that it’s so easily preventable.

In his book, Only the Paranoid Survive (Crown Business, 1999), former Intel CEO Andy Grove cautions that “Success leads to its own demise.” Indeed, there’s no greater risk than being at the top of your game. That’s when all your competitors will be gunning for you. It’s also when your oversized ego is most likely to write checks that reality can’t cash.

Enron, WorldCom, Adelphia – some of the biggest corporate failures were nothing more than houses of cards held together by hubris. It’s no coincidence that all three of those infamous scandals took place during the dot-com era – a market bubble built entirely on irrational exuberance, which is just another way of saying hubris.

Doomed mega mergers like AOL-Time Warner, Sprint-Nextel and Daimler-Chrysler were all based on the unrealistic assumption that the companies involved would be at least as successful together as they were independently. Key issues like lack of strategic, cultural or technological fit were simply ignored in due diligence processes designed to minimize legal liability while rubberstamping a predetermined outcome.

What causes leaders to draw overly optimistic conclusions based on false assumptions, while ignoring critical evidence and reasoning that doesn’t fit their vision or plans? The behavior may be hubris, but at its core is a sort of magical thinking that takes failure far too lightly and success for granted.

Theranos is a perfect example. The company’s $9 billion valuation was based on proprietary technology that was supposed to deliver real-time diagnostics from a few drops of blood from a finger stick. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work. Two years of tests on tens of thousands of patients have been voided, its vaunted California lab has lost its federal certification andCEO Elizabeth Holmes has been banned from the business.

In hindsight, there were plenty of clues. Shrouded in secrecy, the technology was never vetted by investors, partner Walgreens or peer-reviewed medical journals. Outsiders were never allowed in the lab. And the first investor,?noted venture capitalist Tim Draper, was a family friend who was taken with Holmes’ Steve Jobs-like charisma.

Perhaps the most telling sign was something?Holmes said in aGlamour?interview last year, “I was blessed to grow up in an environment in which I was encouraged to believe that there was nothing I couldn’t do.” I think the young Holmes may have taken that parental encouragement just a little too literally. Irrational self-confidence is all over the Theranos mess like latent fingerprints.

Around the same time we learned that everything was not as it seemed at Theranos, I saw?an interview where Charles Kochrecounted what his dad, founder of Koch Industries, told him before handing over the CEO reins. “I hope your first deal is a loser,” he said, “Otherwise you’ll think you’re a lot smarter than you are.”

Sounds like the elder Koch was cut from the same cloth as my old boss. His advice must have sunk in: his son grew the company into a global behemoth with $115 billion in sales and 100,000 employees.

While it’s not unusual for talented up-and-comers to lack humility, all successful leaders pick it up somewhere along the line. Make sure you do. It may very well save your butt down the road.