高盛上周五表示,,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)或?qū)⒃谀曛械?000點(diǎn)——相較當(dāng)前下跌約20%,,與歷史高點(diǎn)相比下跌41%。并稱,,其正在結(jié)合美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)模型和歷史數(shù)據(jù)以預(yù)測(cè)觸底位置,,且已在兩周內(nèi)兩次下調(diào)了每股預(yù)測(cè)收益。該公司最新預(yù)測(cè)顯示,,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)每股收益將下降5%,。
嘉信理財(cái)交易和衍生品副總裁蘭迪·弗雷德里克認(rèn)為,市場(chǎng)很容易就會(huì)觸及2018年12月最低點(diǎn),,2351點(diǎn),。弗雷德里對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“雖然周一較為接近底部,但目前尚未觸底,?!钡紤]到標(biāo)普500指數(shù)在周一盤中曾跌至2400點(diǎn),預(yù)計(jì)可能很快就將觸達(dá)這一底線了——“在這個(gè)市場(chǎng)里,,5分鐘可能就會(huì)蒸發(fā)50點(diǎn),,”他說(shuō)。
上周日,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)緊急宣布降息,,基準(zhǔn)利率已降至接近零點(diǎn),但這似乎并未給投資者情緒帶來(lái)積極影響,。周一,,股市剛開盤就暴跌超余7%,再次觸發(fā)熔斷機(jī)制,。
預(yù)測(cè)股市將呈更大跌幅的,,絕不止高盛一家。獨(dú)立顧問(wèn)聯(lián)盟首席投資官克里斯·扎卡雷利認(rèn)為股市走向很清晰,?!扒熬安幻骼蕰r(shí),市場(chǎng)自然趨勢(shì)當(dāng)然是下行,,”扎卡雷利在一則告示中表示,。“但我預(yù)測(cè),,只要一出臺(tái)財(cái)政刺激措施或出現(xiàn)有關(guān)新冠肺炎的積極消息,,市場(chǎng)就會(huì)出現(xiàn)大幅反彈?!?/p>
此般背景下,,投資者該作何選擇?CFRA薩姆·斯托瓦爾告示中建議,,不要“靠拋售來(lái)鎖定下跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn),,這會(huì)成為投資組合的最大敵人”。
Bankrate.com首席金融分析師格雷格·麥克布萊德也認(rèn)同這一建議,。他指出,,盡管市場(chǎng)存在恐懼和不確定性,但投資者應(yīng)著眼于未來(lái),,不要受困于經(jīng)濟(jì)停擺的問(wèn)題,,要考慮商業(yè)活動(dòng)和生活恢復(fù)正常后的情況,,“考慮5年至10年以后的狀況,這可能有助于防止發(fā)生令人遺憾的下意識(shí)拋售行為,,讓潛在的買入機(jī)會(huì)顯露出來(lái),。”他說(shuō),。
但事實(shí)證明,,許多投資者并沒有把這一建議放在心上——周一,道瓊斯指數(shù)和標(biāo)普500指數(shù)盤中均暴跌逾11%,。
嘉信理財(cái)弗雷德里克認(rèn)為,,最糟糕的情況可能還在后頭。由于市場(chǎng)暴跌速度如此之快,,伴隨著新冠病毒傳播速度也相當(dāng)迅速,,我們還沒看到經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)受損的全貌。弗雷德里克指出,,周一帝國(guó)制造業(yè)指數(shù)顯示,,3月份制造業(yè)指數(shù)跌至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的-21.5,下降了34.4,。該數(shù)據(jù)不僅遠(yuǎn)低于4.8的預(yù)期,,更是自2009年以來(lái)的最低水平。弗雷德里克表示,,“在未來(lái)幾周,,我們將不可避免地看到,所有數(shù)據(jù)都會(huì)嚴(yán)重惡化,?!?/p>
但市場(chǎng)也并非毫無(wú)希望。高盛堅(jiān)稱,,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)到今年底可能會(huì)回升至3200點(diǎn)——比當(dāng)前上漲大約27%,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Emily
高盛上周五表示,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)或?qū)⒃谀曛械?000點(diǎn)——相較當(dāng)前下跌約20%,,與歷史高點(diǎn)相比下跌41%,。并稱,其正在結(jié)合美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)模型和歷史數(shù)據(jù)以預(yù)測(cè)觸底位置,,且已在兩周內(nèi)兩次下調(diào)了每股預(yù)測(cè)收益,。該公司最新預(yù)測(cè)顯示,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)每股收益將下降5%,。
嘉信理財(cái)交易和衍生品副總裁蘭迪·弗雷德里克認(rèn)為,,市場(chǎng)很容易就會(huì)觸及2018年12月最低點(diǎn),2351點(diǎn),。弗雷德里對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“雖然周一較為接近底部,,但目前尚未觸底,。”但考慮到標(biāo)普500指數(shù)在周一盤中曾跌至2400點(diǎn),,預(yù)計(jì)可能很快就將觸達(dá)這一底線了——“在這個(gè)市場(chǎng)里,,5分鐘可能就會(huì)蒸發(fā)50點(diǎn),”他說(shuō),。
上周日,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)緊急宣布降息,,基準(zhǔn)利率已降至接近零點(diǎn),,但這似乎并未給投資者情緒帶來(lái)積極影響。周一,,股市剛開盤就暴跌超余7%,,再次觸發(fā)熔斷機(jī)制。
預(yù)測(cè)股市將呈更大跌幅的,,絕不止高盛一家,。獨(dú)立顧問(wèn)聯(lián)盟首席投資官克里斯·扎卡雷利認(rèn)為股市走向很清晰?!扒熬安幻骼蕰r(shí),,市場(chǎng)自然趨勢(shì)當(dāng)然是下行,”扎卡雷利在一則告示中表示,?!暗翌A(yù)測(cè),只要一出臺(tái)財(cái)政刺激措施或出現(xiàn)有關(guān)新冠肺炎的積極消息,,市場(chǎng)就會(huì)出現(xiàn)大幅反彈,。”
此般背景下,,投資者該作何選擇,?CFRA薩姆·斯托瓦爾告示中建議,不要“靠拋售來(lái)鎖定下跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn),,這會(huì)成為投資組合的最大敵人”,。
Bankrate.com首席金融分析師格雷格·麥克布萊德也認(rèn)同這一建議。他指出,,盡管市場(chǎng)存在恐懼和不確定性,,但投資者應(yīng)著眼于未來(lái),不要受困于經(jīng)濟(jì)停擺的問(wèn)題,,要考慮商業(yè)活動(dòng)和生活恢復(fù)正常后的情況,,“考慮5年至10年以后的狀況,這可能有助于防止發(fā)生令人遺憾的下意識(shí)拋售行為,,讓潛在的買入機(jī)會(huì)顯露出來(lái),?!彼f(shuō)。
但事實(shí)證明,,許多投資者并沒有把這一建議放在心上——周一,,道瓊斯指數(shù)和標(biāo)普500指數(shù)盤中均暴跌逾11%。
嘉信理財(cái)弗雷德里克認(rèn)為,,最糟糕的情況可能還在后頭,。由于市場(chǎng)暴跌速度如此之快,伴隨著新冠病毒傳播速度也相當(dāng)迅速,,我們還沒看到經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)受損的全貌,。弗雷德里克指出,周一帝國(guó)制造業(yè)指數(shù)顯示,,3月份制造業(yè)指數(shù)跌至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的-21.5,,下降了34.4。該數(shù)據(jù)不僅遠(yuǎn)低于4.8的預(yù)期,,更是自2009年以來(lái)的最低水平,。弗雷德里克表示,“在未來(lái)幾周,,我們將不可避免地看到,,所有數(shù)據(jù)都會(huì)嚴(yán)重惡化?!?/p>
但市場(chǎng)也并非毫無(wú)希望,。高盛堅(jiān)稱,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)到今年底可能會(huì)回升至3200點(diǎn)——比當(dāng)前上漲大約27%,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Emily
The firm said Friday that the S&P 500 could see a mid-year trough at 2,000—that's down around 20% from current levels and 41% from its all-time high. Goldman says it is using the Fed model, a Dividend Discount Model, and history to come to that bottom—and has already cut its EPS forecast twice in two weeks (the firm is now forecasting S&P 500 EPS will decline by 5%) .
For those like Randy Frederick, the vice president of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab, markets could easily test the lows from December of 2018, which is 2,351 on the S&P. "We got relatively close [on Monday] but we didn’t get there," Frederick tells Fortune. But given that the S&P 500 hit around 2,400 in intraday trading on Monday, it's likely the index might test that support level soon—"50 points could evaporate in five minutes in this market," he says.
An emergency Fed rate cut on Sunday that whittled interest rates effectively down to zero seemingly had no impact on investor sentiment, as stocks plunged over 7% right at the bell, triggering yet another circuit breaker.
But Goldman is by no means alone in seeing a steeper drop on the horizon. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, notes the trajectory is clear: "In the absence of more clarity, the market’s natural direction will be down," Zaccarelli said in a note. "However, I would expect sharp bounce backs whenever fiscal stimulus and/or more positive Covid-19 news develops."
The message for investors this week? Don't "become their portfolio’s worst enemy by locking in these declines by selling out," CFRA's Sam Stovall suggests in a note.
That rings true for Bankrate.com's chief financial analyst Greg McBride: "Despite fear and uncertainty, investors should think to the future, beyond the economic pause and when business and life resumes normalcy," he said in a note. "Thinking 5, 10 years down the road could prevent that regrettable knee-jerk selling reaction and reveal potential buying opportunities."
Many investors were not taking that message to heart on Monday, however, as the Dow and S&P 500 both plunged more than 11% in intraday trading.
Still, Charles Schwab's Frederick thinks the worst may be yet to come. Because the market plunge has been so fast (and the spread of coronavirus so rapid), we haven't seen much impact on economic data—yet. Frederick points to the Empire State manufacturing index data released Monday, which saw a record 34.4 point drop, coming in at negative 21.5 in March—that's not only way off estimates of a 4.8 reading, but is also the lowest level since 2009. Frederick says it's "inevitable we’re going to see some serious deterioration in all the data over the next few weeks."
But all hope is not lost. Goldman maintains the S&P 500 could likely end the year back up at 3,200 points—which would represent a roughly 27% increase from current levels.