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雜志訂閱

人造肉真的很有前途嗎,?

Daria Solovieva
2020-03-22

隨著人造肉市場逐漸成熟,許多人開始質(zhì)疑人造肉市場潛力和產(chǎn)品的營養(yǎng)價值,。

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植物肉市場的發(fā)展從十年前就開始趨于穩(wěn)定,。由于銷售額的飛速增長,就連動物蛋白領(lǐng)域的傳統(tǒng)肉類企業(yè)也想加入這場競爭,。不過,,隨著市場逐漸成熟,許多人開始質(zhì)疑這一市場長期發(fā)展的潛力,、產(chǎn)品的營養(yǎng)價值,以及是否真的有助于減少傳統(tǒng)肉類生產(chǎn)對環(huán)境所造成的傷害,。

雖然生產(chǎn)植物替代肉的企業(yè)正投入大量的資金,,不遺余力地向公眾宣傳自家產(chǎn)品的益處,但這類產(chǎn)品對環(huán)境和健康狀況的長期影響才剛開始通過數(shù)據(jù)慢慢顯現(xiàn)出來,。

The Good Food Institute報告稱,,目前植物性食品的零售市場價值為50億美元(約合人民幣354億元)。2019年,,植物肉占據(jù)的市場價值為9.39億美元,,相比2017年增長了38%。

IRI統(tǒng)計的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,受冷藏肉類市場發(fā)展的影響,,14%的美國家庭都在購買植物肉。

不過,,據(jù)The Good Food Institute統(tǒng)計,,植物肉銷售額只占肉類零售總額的1%。

動物肉生產(chǎn)企業(yè)近期的舉措足以表明,,他們已經(jīng)在植物性食品的市場里看到了發(fā)展的可能性,。在接受《財富》雜志的采訪時,The Good Food Institute的可持續(xù)海產(chǎn)品項目經(jīng)理詹尼弗·洛米表示:“現(xiàn)在還處于相當(dāng)早的階段,,但這著實令人興奮,,因為還有非常大的發(fā)展空間。大型肉類企業(yè)正朝著植物性食品的市場進發(fā),,這一現(xiàn)象表明,,無論是以投資還是增加產(chǎn)品線的方式,整個行業(yè)都將其視為一次巨大的轉(zhuǎn)型,而不僅僅是一時興起的決定,?!?/p>

購買這類產(chǎn)品的也不僅僅是千禧一代的素食主義者。

在與分析師進行財報電話會議時,,Beyond Meat的首席執(zhí)行官伊?!げ祭时硎荆镜暮诵目蛻羰顷P(guān)心健康問題,、環(huán)境因素和動物福利的“40歲以上人群”,。

另外一些報告顯示,大多數(shù)購買了植物肉的消費者還是喜歡時不時地把牛肉漢堡當(dāng)成晚餐,。NPD集團統(tǒng)計的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,90%購買了植物肉的消費者不是純素食主義者,甚至連素食主義者都不是,。

The Good Food Institute的布什內(nèi)爾(Bushnell)說:“基于最新一代植物性漢堡的驚人成功,,我們發(fā)現(xiàn),從初創(chuàng)企業(yè)到領(lǐng)先的(包裝消費品)公司,、乃至世界上最大的肉類企業(yè)都快速地創(chuàng)新了各種植物肉產(chǎn)品,。這是一個轉(zhuǎn)折點,大量的創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品都還未投入市場,?!?/p>

大型人造肉類企業(yè)

在過去十年里,Beyond Burger和Impossible Foods等生產(chǎn)植物性食品的企業(yè)都取得了不小的成就,。

華爾街的投資者正保持著關(guān)注,;大型肉類企業(yè)正盯著它們的一舉一動(2016年,Tyson Foods投資了Beyond Meat),;新的競爭者正不斷地涌現(xiàn),。

作為一家上市公司,Beyond Meat是植物性食品領(lǐng)域最受關(guān)注的一員,。The Good Food Institute的監(jiān)管顧問奈杰爾·巴雷拉說:“和一般的食品公司相比,,Beyond Meat最有趣的就是在產(chǎn)品研發(fā)方面巨大的資金投入。從某些方面來看,,它更像是一家科技公司,。”

Beyond Meat和風(fēng)險投資的一眾寵兒一樣,,都承諾要讓這個世界變得更加美好,。不過,當(dāng)談及對環(huán)境的影響時,,The Good Food Institute將該公司列為第二位,,僅次于另一家生產(chǎn)植物肉的大型企業(yè)——Impossible Foods,。

Impossible Foods成立于2011年,目標(biāo)是在2035年之前把動物從食品生產(chǎn)體系中剔除出去,。Impossible Foods的一位女發(fā)言人表示:“動物農(nóng)業(yè)是一種將植物轉(zhuǎn)化為美味蛋白質(zhì)的陳舊技術(shù),。它也是地球上最具破壞性的一種技術(shù)。我們有更好的選擇:把植物加工成肉類,?!北局茉缧r候,該公司完成了一輪5億美元的融資,。自2011年以來,,其外部投資總額已達到了13億美元。

Beyond Meat不愿對此做出評價,。

至于市場開拓這方面,,Beyond Meat的布朗在投資者電話會議中表示,該其公司在美國餐飲市場還只能算是“觸及皮毛”,,并且,,盡管對冠狀病毒疫情的爆發(fā)感到擔(dān)憂,但他們對進軍歐洲,、亞洲和中東市場仍保持著樂觀的態(tài)度,。

在近期的財報電話會議中,布朗說:“我們將繼續(xù)把重點放在亞洲市場,,目標(biāo)是在2020年年底前在該地區(qū)開始生產(chǎn),,并期待冠狀病毒危機能得到一定程度的解決,。機會可貴,,值得大力投資。我們相信,,亞洲市場的核心價格能為引入肉類生產(chǎn)的新模式提供一個前所未有的機遇,。”

Beyond Meat公布的上一季度毛利率為34%,,與分析師的預(yù)期相符,,不過和再往前一個季度35.6%的毛利率相比有所下降。2019年第四季度的銷售額為9850萬美元,,超出了分析師的預(yù)期,。

盡管對利潤率和激進的擴張方式有所擔(dān)憂,但眾多華爾街投資者和行業(yè)分析師依然很看好Beyond Meat的發(fā)展前景,。晨星一份研究報告稱:“鑒于‘先發(fā)制人’的優(yōu)勢,,以及該品牌在品嘗試驗(一直以來都僅次于私人企業(yè)Impossible Foods)中的強勁表現(xiàn),Beyond Meat應(yīng)該是植物肉行業(yè)發(fā)展的主要受益者,。該公司非常有可能拓展到新的產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)域(培根,、雞塊等)和地理區(qū)域(歐洲和亞洲),。”

然而,,隨著銷售額的增長,,尤其是美國各地快餐連鎖店銷售額的增長,該公司是否能夠保證產(chǎn)品的一致性仍然存在不確定性,。已經(jīng)在銷售Beyond Meat產(chǎn)品的快餐連鎖店包括麥當(dāng)勞,、肯德基、星巴克和Dunkin’,。

此外,,雖然許多生產(chǎn)植物性食品的企業(yè)在做市場推廣時,都著重強調(diào)自己的產(chǎn)品和傳統(tǒng)肉類相比,,擁有營養(yǎng)價值的優(yōu)越性,,但目前為止,并沒有多少全面的獨立數(shù)據(jù)能支撐這樣的說法,。

晨星方面表示:“和瘦牛肉相比,,Beyond Burger的產(chǎn)品沒有那么健康,這可能會引起消費者較多的關(guān)注,,因為這類產(chǎn)品零售量更高,,還有額外的食品配送服務(wù),導(dǎo)致植物肉產(chǎn)品的采用受限,。消費者已經(jīng)不再購買成分表很長的產(chǎn)品了(比如Beyond Burger的食品),,而是會選擇新鮮、天然的產(chǎn)品,。這可能也會對最終需求產(chǎn)生限制,。”

雖然Impossible Foods的發(fā)言人聲稱,,該公司的生產(chǎn)過程有可能會“逆轉(zhuǎn)氣候變化的時鐘”,,但仍然有很多人對這些說法表示懷疑。

原野維生素天然商店的特別項目主管艾倫·路易斯主要負責(zé)應(yīng)對政府事務(wù)和食品與農(nóng)業(yè)政策,,他說:“植物肉可能和T骨牛排一樣不干凈,,這取決于它的生產(chǎn)方式。環(huán)境中都有殺蟲劑,;新的遺傳物質(zhì)會從作物轉(zhuǎn)移到牲畜體內(nèi),,再轉(zhuǎn)入環(huán)境中;工人和社區(qū)居民的錢財和活力都會被吸干,。Impossible Foods與JBS,、Purdue和嘉吉(Cargill)的共同點要遠遠多于它和某個小型草飼農(nóng)場主的共同點?!?/p>

這些企業(yè)正在往其蛋白質(zhì)產(chǎn)品中加入肉類替代品,。JBS USA的一位發(fā)言人表示,,該公司將推出新產(chǎn)品以滿足消費者的需求。

此前,,JBS曾在巴西,、英國、歐洲和澳大利亞都試銷售過其植物性產(chǎn)品,。今年4月,,該公司將在美國推出旗下的Ozo品牌。

為人造肉的到來做好準(zhǔn)備

生產(chǎn)人造肉類替代品的小型初創(chuàng)企業(yè)即將步入這一市場,。此類公司聲稱,,從環(huán)保角度考慮,他們的生產(chǎn)過程能把傳統(tǒng)肉類企業(yè)和植物肉類企業(yè)統(tǒng)統(tǒng)打敗,。

他們還經(jīng)常引用人口統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)——以及為世界快速增長的人口提供食物的需要——作為加速生產(chǎn)以勝過生長在泥土里和土地上所有產(chǎn)品的理由,。根據(jù)世界資源研究所目前的預(yù)估,到2050年時,,全球人口將達到100億,,糧食生產(chǎn)需求將因此增加約70%。

Air Protein的首席執(zhí)行官麗莎·戴森表示:“這意味著我們需要更多的土地和資源才能滿足需求,。而在我們現(xiàn)有的供應(yīng)鏈中,,擴大土地或增加資源都不現(xiàn)實?!贝魃墓臼菑囊患铱臻g技術(shù)初創(chuàng)企業(yè)中劃分出來的,,目前正處于以碳、風(fēng)和微生物為材料研發(fā)“空氣肉”的早期階段,。

她補充說:“眼下糧食生產(chǎn)所排放的溫室氣體占總量的20%以上,,比各種交通運輸所產(chǎn)生的氣體總和還要多,而且還消耗了地球上超過37%的土地——相當(dāng)于非洲和南美洲的面積之和,?!?/p>

戴森表示,,其公司的目標(biāo)是憑借“在環(huán)境中留下最少的足跡”這一點來競爭,。

戴森說:“我們的創(chuàng)新科技可以用空氣生產(chǎn)肉類,比牛肉和用大豆生產(chǎn)的肉都便宜得多——因為是以空氣,、水和可再生能源生產(chǎn)的空氣肉制品,。通過養(yǎng)殖的方式,要過兩年才能得到一塊牛排,。這個過程太過昂貴,,既消耗了環(huán)境,又降低了資源效率,。而我們生產(chǎn)肉類(只需要幾天時間)無需使用耕地,,這對可持續(xù)的糧食系統(tǒng)和盈虧底線來說都有著令人興奮的益處,。”

然而,,一些肉類行業(yè)已經(jīng)明確表示,,他們在減少自身的環(huán)境足跡方面取得了長足的進步。美國雞肉協(xié)會網(wǎng)站的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,自1965年以來,,雞肉生產(chǎn)對環(huán)境的影響減少了50%,包括養(yǎng)雞所需的資源也有所減少,。耕地占用量減少了72%,,水資源使用量減少了58%,化石燃料使用量減少了39%,。

至于人造的肉類替代品,,仍有大量的監(jiān)管工作需要付諸實行,同時還要設(shè)法在口味上贏得消費者的青睞,,這都是Impossible Foods和Beyond Burger花了好幾年才做到的,。

The Good Food Institute的巴雷拉說:“可能要找一個產(chǎn)品得到認可的實例,好讓我們?nèi)娴亓私獗O(jiān)管機構(gòu)的要求,?!?/p>

與此同時,他表示,,像Air Protein,、Memphis Meat和Sustainable Bioproduct這樣的企業(yè),以及Beyond Meat和Impossible Foods這樣生產(chǎn)植物性食品的企業(yè)仍然“完全不在美國農(nóng)業(yè)部或美國食品藥品監(jiān)督管理局的框架內(nèi)”,。

不斷的創(chuàng)新,、多種核心成分、采購,、分銷和包裝可能會讓消費者感到困惑,,因為其它國家并沒有這種積極主動的公共監(jiān)管機構(gòu)。

實際成本是什么?

對于生產(chǎn)動物產(chǎn)品替代物的公司來說,,是時候拿出證據(jù)證明對環(huán)境和健康的益處了,。在財報電話會議中,Beyond Meat方幾乎沒有提供關(guān)于這兩點的任何細節(jié),。

FoodFutureCo旨在為食品科技初創(chuàng)企業(yè)提供推動力,,其創(chuàng)始人沈唐(Shen Tong)表示,從歷史角度出發(fā),,在低成本和低利潤率的推動下,,就長期營養(yǎng)價值而言,加工食品的前景并沒有那么美好,。植物性食品市場或許也有同樣的風(fēng)險,。

沈唐說:“當(dāng)你開始扮演上帝時,,你就已經(jīng)陷入危險的境地了?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))

譯者:殷圓圓

植物肉市場的發(fā)展從十年前就開始趨于穩(wěn)定,。由于銷售額的飛速增長,就連動物蛋白領(lǐng)域的傳統(tǒng)肉類企業(yè)也想加入這場競爭,。不過,,隨著市場逐漸成熟,許多人開始質(zhì)疑這一市場長期發(fā)展的潛力,、產(chǎn)品的營養(yǎng)價值,,以及是否真的有助于減少傳統(tǒng)肉類生產(chǎn)對環(huán)境所造成的傷害。

雖然生產(chǎn)植物替代肉的企業(yè)正投入大量的資金,,不遺余力地向公眾宣傳自家產(chǎn)品的益處,,但這類產(chǎn)品對環(huán)境和健康狀況的長期影響才剛開始通過數(shù)據(jù)慢慢顯現(xiàn)出來。

The Good Food Institute報告稱,,目前植物性食品的零售市場價值為50億美元(約合人民幣354億元),。2019年,植物肉占據(jù)的市場價值為9.39億美元,,相比2017年增長了38%,。

IRI統(tǒng)計的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,受冷藏肉類市場發(fā)展的影響,,14%的美國家庭都在購買植物肉,。

不過,據(jù)The Good Food Institute統(tǒng)計,,植物肉銷售額只占肉類零售總額的1%,。

動物肉生產(chǎn)企業(yè)近期的舉措足以表明,他們已經(jīng)在植物性食品的市場里看到了發(fā)展的可能性,。在接受《財富》雜志的采訪時,,The Good Food Institute的可持續(xù)海產(chǎn)品項目經(jīng)理詹尼弗·洛米表示:“現(xiàn)在還處于相當(dāng)早的階段,但這著實令人興奮,,因為還有非常大的發(fā)展空間,。大型肉類企業(yè)正朝著植物性食品的市場進發(fā),這一現(xiàn)象表明,,無論是以投資還是增加產(chǎn)品線的方式,,整個行業(yè)都將其視為一次巨大的轉(zhuǎn)型,,而不僅僅是一時興起的決定,。”

購買這類產(chǎn)品的也不僅僅是千禧一代的素食主義者,。

在與分析師進行財報電話會議時,,Beyond Meat的首席執(zhí)行官伊?!げ祭时硎荆镜暮诵目蛻羰顷P(guān)心健康問題,、環(huán)境因素和動物福利的“40歲以上人群”,。

另外一些報告顯示,大多數(shù)購買了植物肉的消費者還是喜歡時不時地把牛肉漢堡當(dāng)成晚餐,。NPD集團統(tǒng)計的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,90%購買了植物肉的消費者不是純素食主義者,甚至連素食主義者都不是,。

The Good Food Institute的布什內(nèi)爾(Bushnell)說:“基于最新一代植物性漢堡的驚人成功,,我們發(fā)現(xiàn),從初創(chuàng)企業(yè)到領(lǐng)先的(包裝消費品)公司,、乃至世界上最大的肉類企業(yè)都快速地創(chuàng)新了各種植物肉產(chǎn)品,。這是一個轉(zhuǎn)折點,大量的創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品都還未投入市場,?!?/p>

大型人造肉類企業(yè)

在過去十年里,Beyond Burger和Impossible Foods等生產(chǎn)植物性食品的企業(yè)都取得了不小的成就,。

華爾街的投資者正保持著關(guān)注,;大型肉類企業(yè)正盯著它們的一舉一動(2016年,Tyson Foods投資了Beyond Meat),;新的競爭者正不斷地涌現(xiàn),。

作為一家上市公司,Beyond Meat是植物性食品領(lǐng)域最受關(guān)注的一員,。The Good Food Institute的監(jiān)管顧問奈杰爾·巴雷拉說:“和一般的食品公司相比,,Beyond Meat最有趣的就是在產(chǎn)品研發(fā)方面巨大的資金投入。從某些方面來看,,它更像是一家科技公司,。”

Beyond Meat和風(fēng)險投資的一眾寵兒一樣,,都承諾要讓這個世界變得更加美好,。不過,當(dāng)談及對環(huán)境的影響時,,The Good Food Institute將該公司列為第二位,,僅次于另一家生產(chǎn)植物肉的大型企業(yè)——Impossible Foods。

Impossible Foods成立于2011年,,目標(biāo)是在2035年之前把動物從食品生產(chǎn)體系中剔除出去,。Impossible Foods的一位女發(fā)言人表示:“動物農(nóng)業(yè)是一種將植物轉(zhuǎn)化為美味蛋白質(zhì)的陳舊技術(shù)。它也是地球上最具破壞性的一種技術(shù)。我們有更好的選擇:把植物加工成肉類,?!北局茉缧r候,該公司完成了一輪5億美元的融資,。自2011年以來,,其外部投資總額已達到了13億美元。

Beyond Meat不愿對此做出評價,。

至于市場開拓這方面,,Beyond Meat的布朗在投資者電話會議中表示,該其公司在美國餐飲市場還只能算是“觸及皮毛”,,并且,,盡管對冠狀病毒疫情的爆發(fā)感到擔(dān)憂,但他們對進軍歐洲,、亞洲和中東市場仍保持著樂觀的態(tài)度,。

在近期的財報電話會議中,布朗說:“我們將繼續(xù)把重點放在亞洲市場,,目標(biāo)是在2020年年底前在該地區(qū)開始生產(chǎn),,并期待冠狀病毒危機能得到一定程度的解決。機會可貴,,值得大力投資,。我們相信,亞洲市場的核心價格能為引入肉類生產(chǎn)的新模式提供一個前所未有的機遇,?!?/p>

Beyond Meat公布的上一季度毛利率為34%,與分析師的預(yù)期相符,,不過和再往前一個季度35.6%的毛利率相比有所下降,。2019年第四季度的銷售額為9850萬美元,超出了分析師的預(yù)期,。

盡管對利潤率和激進的擴張方式有所擔(dān)憂,,但眾多華爾街投資者和行業(yè)分析師依然很看好Beyond Meat的發(fā)展前景。晨星一份研究報告稱:“鑒于‘先發(fā)制人’的優(yōu)勢,,以及該品牌在品嘗試驗(一直以來都僅次于私人企業(yè)Impossible Foods)中的強勁表現(xiàn),,Beyond Meat應(yīng)該是植物肉行業(yè)發(fā)展的主要受益者。該公司非常有可能拓展到新的產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)域(培根,、雞塊等)和地理區(qū)域(歐洲和亞洲),。”

然而,,隨著銷售額的增長,,尤其是美國各地快餐連鎖店銷售額的增長,,該公司是否能夠保證產(chǎn)品的一致性仍然存在不確定性。已經(jīng)在銷售Beyond Meat產(chǎn)品的快餐連鎖店包括麥當(dāng)勞,、肯德基,、星巴克和Dunkin’,。

此外,,雖然許多生產(chǎn)植物性食品的企業(yè)在做市場推廣時,都著重強調(diào)自己的產(chǎn)品和傳統(tǒng)肉類相比,,擁有營養(yǎng)價值的優(yōu)越性,,但目前為止,并沒有多少全面的獨立數(shù)據(jù)能支撐這樣的說法,。

晨星方面表示:“和瘦牛肉相比,,Beyond Burger的產(chǎn)品沒有那么健康,這可能會引起消費者較多的關(guān)注,,因為這類產(chǎn)品零售量更高,,還有額外的食品配送服務(wù),導(dǎo)致植物肉產(chǎn)品的采用受限,。消費者已經(jīng)不再購買成分表很長的產(chǎn)品了(比如Beyond Burger的食品),,而是會選擇新鮮、天然的產(chǎn)品,。這可能也會對最終需求產(chǎn)生限制,。”

雖然Impossible Foods的發(fā)言人聲稱,,該公司的生產(chǎn)過程有可能會“逆轉(zhuǎn)氣候變化的時鐘”,,但仍然有很多人對這些說法表示懷疑。

原野維生素天然商店的特別項目主管艾倫·路易斯主要負責(zé)應(yīng)對政府事務(wù)和食品與農(nóng)業(yè)政策,,他說:“植物肉可能和T骨牛排一樣不干凈,,這取決于它的生產(chǎn)方式。環(huán)境中都有殺蟲劑,;新的遺傳物質(zhì)會從作物轉(zhuǎn)移到牲畜體內(nèi),,再轉(zhuǎn)入環(huán)境中;工人和社區(qū)居民的錢財和活力都會被吸干,。Impossible Foods與JBS,、Purdue和嘉吉(Cargill)的共同點要遠遠多于它和某個小型草飼農(nóng)場主的共同點?!?/p>

這些企業(yè)正在往其蛋白質(zhì)產(chǎn)品中加入肉類替代品,。JBS USA的一位發(fā)言人表示,該公司將推出新產(chǎn)品以滿足消費者的需求,。

此前,,JBS曾在巴西、英國、歐洲和澳大利亞都試銷售過其植物性產(chǎn)品,。今年4月,,該公司將在美國推出旗下的Ozo品牌。

為人造肉的到來做好準(zhǔn)備

生產(chǎn)人造肉類替代品的小型初創(chuàng)企業(yè)即將步入這一市場,。此類公司聲稱,,從環(huán)保角度考慮,他們的生產(chǎn)過程能把傳統(tǒng)肉類企業(yè)和植物肉類企業(yè)統(tǒng)統(tǒng)打敗,。

他們還經(jīng)常引用人口統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)——以及為世界快速增長的人口提供食物的需要——作為加速生產(chǎn)以勝過生長在泥土里和土地上所有產(chǎn)品的理由,。根據(jù)世界資源研究所目前的預(yù)估,到2050年時,,全球人口將達到100億,,糧食生產(chǎn)需求將因此增加約70%。

Air Protein的首席執(zhí)行官麗莎·戴森表示:“這意味著我們需要更多的土地和資源才能滿足需求,。而在我們現(xiàn)有的供應(yīng)鏈中,,擴大土地或增加資源都不現(xiàn)實?!贝魃墓臼菑囊患铱臻g技術(shù)初創(chuàng)企業(yè)中劃分出來的,,目前正處于以碳、風(fēng)和微生物為材料研發(fā)“空氣肉”的早期階段,。

她補充說:“眼下糧食生產(chǎn)所排放的溫室氣體占總量的20%以上,,比各種交通運輸所產(chǎn)生的氣體總和還要多,而且還消耗了地球上超過37%的土地——相當(dāng)于非洲和南美洲的面積之和,?!?/p>

戴森表示,其公司的目標(biāo)是憑借“在環(huán)境中留下最少的足跡”這一點來競爭,。

戴森說:“我們的創(chuàng)新科技可以用空氣生產(chǎn)肉類,,比牛肉和用大豆生產(chǎn)的肉都便宜得多——因為是以空氣、水和可再生能源生產(chǎn)的空氣肉制品,。通過養(yǎng)殖的方式,,要過兩年才能得到一塊牛排。這個過程太過昂貴,,既消耗了環(huán)境,,又降低了資源效率。而我們生產(chǎn)肉類(只需要幾天時間)無需使用耕地,,這對可持續(xù)的糧食系統(tǒng)和盈虧底線來說都有著令人興奮的益處,。”

然而,,一些肉類行業(yè)已經(jīng)明確表示,,他們在減少自身的環(huán)境足跡方面取得了長足的進步,。美國雞肉協(xié)會網(wǎng)站的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示,自1965年以來,,雞肉生產(chǎn)對環(huán)境的影響減少了50%,,包括養(yǎng)雞所需的資源也有所減少。耕地占用量減少了72%,,水資源使用量減少了58%,,化石燃料使用量減少了39%。

至于人造的肉類替代品,,仍有大量的監(jiān)管工作需要付諸實行,,同時還要設(shè)法在口味上贏得消費者的青睞,,這都是Impossible Foods和Beyond Burger花了好幾年才做到的,。

The Good Food Institute的巴雷拉說:“可能要找一個產(chǎn)品得到認可的實例,好讓我們?nèi)娴亓私獗O(jiān)管機構(gòu)的要求,?!?/p>

與此同時,他表示,,像Air Protein,、Memphis Meat和Sustainable Bioproduct這樣的企業(yè),以及Beyond Meat和Impossible Foods這樣生產(chǎn)植物性食品的企業(yè)仍然“完全不在美國農(nóng)業(yè)部或美國食品藥品監(jiān)督管理局的框架內(nèi)”,。

不斷的創(chuàng)新,、多種核心成分、采購,、分銷和包裝可能會讓消費者感到困惑,,因為其它國家并沒有這種積極主動的公共監(jiān)管機構(gòu)。

實際成本是什么?

對于生產(chǎn)動物產(chǎn)品替代物的公司來說,,是時候拿出證據(jù)證明對環(huán)境和健康的益處了,。在財報電話會議中,Beyond Meat方幾乎沒有提供關(guān)于這兩點的任何細節(jié),。

FoodFutureCo旨在為食品科技初創(chuàng)企業(yè)提供推動力,,其創(chuàng)始人沈唐(Shen Tong)表示,從歷史角度出發(fā),,在低成本和低利潤率的推動下,,就長期營養(yǎng)價值而言,加工食品的前景并沒有那么美好,。植物性食品市場或許也有同樣的風(fēng)險,。

沈唐說:“當(dāng)你開始扮演上帝時,你就已經(jīng)陷入危險的境地了,?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))

譯者:殷圓圓

The growth of the plant-based meat sector started to take hold a decade back. Thanks to rapidly increasing sales, even traditional meat companies—those of the animal protein world—want in on the game. But as the sector matures, many people are beginning to ask tougher questions about the long-term potential of the trend, the nutritional value of the products, and whether faux meat production can really help reduce the harm traditional meat production causes the environment.

While companies that produce plant-based meat substitutes are pushing money into telling the public about the benefits of their products, the data behind the environmental and long-term health impacts of the products are just beginning to trickle in.

The Good Food Institute reports that the current retail market for plant-based foods is valued at $5 billion. In 2019, plant-based meats accounted for $939 million of those billions, a 38% jump from 2017.

And according to IRI, 14% of U.S. households are buying plant-based meat, driven primarily by growth in the refrigerated segment.

Still, plant-based meats make up only 1% of all dollar sales of total retail meat, according to the Good Food Institute.

Recent moves by animal-based meat producers make it clear that they see room for themselves in the plant-based market. “It’s still very early, which is exciting because there is so much growth still,” Jennifer Lamy, a sustainable seafood initiative manager with the Good Food Institute, told Fortune. “The big meat companies that are jumping into the space are indicating, either through their investments or their own product lines, that this is being perceived in the industry as a whole as an enormous shift, not just a fad.”

And it’s not just vegetarian millennials buying up the products.

During an earnings call with analysts, Beyond Meat CEO Ethan Brown said the company’s core customers are “people who are over 40” and are driven by health concerns, as well as environmental factors and animal welfare.

Other reports suggest that the majority of consumers of plant-based meats still like to chow down on beef burgers on other nights. According to the NPD Group, 90% of the consumers buying plant-based meat are neither vegans nor vegetarians.

“Building on the incredible success of the latest generation of plant-based burgers, we're seeing rapid product innovation across a wide variety of plant-based meat products from startups, leading [consumer packaged goods] companies, and even the world's largest meat companies,” said Good Food’s Bushnell. “This is a tipping point, with so much product innovation yet to hit the market.”

Big (faux) meat

What Beyond Burger, Impossible Foods, and other plant-based companies have accomplished in the past decade is no small feat.

Wall Street investors are paying attention; the big meat companies are watching their every move (Tyson Foods invested in Beyond Meat back in 2016); and new competitors continue to come on the scene.

A public company, Beyond Meat is the most heavily scrutinized player in the plant-based space. “One of the most interesting aspects of Beyond is the amount of money they spend on R&D, compared to an average food company. In some ways they are more like a tech company,” said Nigel Barrella, regulatory counsel at the Good Food Institute.

Beyond Meat’s promise is similar to that of a lot of venture capital darlings that pledge to make the world a better place. But, when it comes to environmental impact, the Good Food Institute rates the company the runner-up against the other big name in plant-based meats, Impossible Foods.

Launched in 2011, Impossible wants to eliminate animals from the food production system by 2035. “Animal agriculture is a prehistoric technology to turn plants into delicious protein. It’s also the most destructive technology on earth. There is a better way: meat from plants,” said an Impossible spokeswoman. The company closed on a $500 million funding round earlier this week, bringing the total for outside investment to $1.3 billion since 2011.

Beyond Meat declined to comment for this story.

As for expansion, during the investor call, Beyond’s Brown said the company is still just “scratching the surface” of the U.S. restaurant market and remains optimistic about moving into Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, despite concerns about the coronavirus outbreak.

“We continue to focus on Asia with the goal of producing in the region before the end of 2020, pending some level of resolution of the coronavirus crisis,” Brown said on the recent earnings call. “The magnitude of the opportunity merits significant investment. We believe that the core price in Asia provides an unprecedented opening to introduce new production models for meat.”

Beyond Meat reported a gross profit margin of 34% for the last quarter, meeting analysts’ projections, although a decline from the previous quarter’s gross profit margin of 35.6%. Sales during the fourth quarter of 2019 came in at $98.5 million, topping analyst estimates.

Despite concerns about margins and aggressive expansion risks, many Wall Street investors and industry analysts view Beyond Meat’s outlook favorably. “Beyond Meat should be a major beneficiary of PBM (plant-based meat) growth, given its first-mover advantage, and the brand’s strong performance in taste tests (consistently second only to privately held Impossible Foods),” said a research note from Morningstar. “Beyond has significant opportunity to expand into new product offerings (bacon, chicken nuggets) and geographies (Europe and Asia).”

There are still questions, however, about whether or not the company will be able to control consistency of its products as sales grows, in particular to fast-food chain restaurants across the United States. Fast-food chains that already sell Beyond Meat products include McDonald’s, KFC, Starbucks, and Dunkin’.

Also, while the marketing of many plant-based companies focuses on what they say is the nutritional superiority of their products compared to conventional meat, there is still little comprehensive independent data to back up a lot of these assertions.

According to Morningstar: “Beyond Burger’s relative lack of health benefits as compared with lean beef may garner increased consumer attention as the category gains additional retail and food-service distribution, limiting PBM product adoption. Consumers have been shifting away from products with long ingredient lists (such as Beyond’s fare), opting toward fresh, natural products, which could also limit ultimate demand.”

And though Impossible’s spokesperson said the company’s production process could potentially “turn back the clock on climate change,” there are plenty of people who remain unconvinced of those claims.

“Plant-based meat can be just as dirty as a T-bone steak, depending on how it’s produced. In both cases, pesticides enter the environment, novel genetic material is passed from crop to livestock to the environment, workers and communities are drained of their wealth and vitality,” said Alan Lewis, a director of special projects at Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage who focuses on government affairs and food and agriculture policy. “Impossible Foods has far more in common with JBS, Purdue, and Cargill than with a small holder grass-fed rancher.”

And those companies are starting to add meat alternatives to their protein lineups. A JBS USA spokesperson said the company is launching new products in response to consumer cravings.

JBS has previously tested its plant-based products in Brazil, the U.K., Europe, and Australia. And, in April, the company will start distributing its Ozo brand in the U.S.

Get ready for lab-grown meats

Smaller startups that produce lab-derived meat alternatives have started to join the category. The companies claim that their production processes beat both traditional and plant-based meat companies on the environmental front.

And they often cite population statistics—and the need to feed the world’s fast-growing population—as a reason for their faster-to-create products to win out over anything that starts out growing in or walking on the ground. Current estimates put the global population at 10 billion people by 2050, which will require a 70% increase in the demand for food production, according to the World Resource Institute.

“This means an increased need for land and resources to meet this need, both of which are not realistic with our current supply chains,” said Lisa Dyson, CEO of Air Protein. Dyson’s company, which was spun off from a space tech startup, is in the early stages of developing “air-based meat” made of carbon, wind, and microbes.

“Current food production accounts for over 20% of greenhouse gases,” she added, “more than all of transportation combined, and uses over 37% of the planet’s land mass—the amount of land equivalent to the size of both Africa and South America.”

Dyson said her company’s goal is to compete by using a much smaller environmental footprint.

“Our innovation enables a path to producing meat from air in a way that’s far cheaper than meat from cows or even meat from soy—that’s because air-based meat production starts with air, water, and renewable energy,” said Dyson. “It takes two years to grow a steak, which is an extremely costly process that’s both taxing on the environment and resource inefficient. Our way of producing meat [takes just a few days and] doesn’t require the use of arable land, which has even more exciting upsides for a sustainable food system and bottom lines.”

Some meat sectors, however, have made clear that they’ve made strides in reducing their own environmental footprint. According to the National Chicken Council’s “Chicken Check In” site, the environmental impact of chicken production decreased by 50% since 1965, including the reduction of resources needed to raise a chicken. Farmland dropped 72%, water 58%, and fossil fuels 39%.

For lab-derived meat substitutes, there’s still a good deal of regulatory oversight to put in place, as well as finding ways to win over consumers on taste, something Impossible and Beyond took years to do.

“We may need an actual example of a product getting approval to get the full outline of what regulators are going to require,” said Good Food’s Barrella.

In the meantime, companies including Air Protein, Memphis Meat, and Sustainable Bioproduct as well as plant-based companies like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods remain “entirely outside the USDA/FDA framework,” he said.

And constant innovation, multiple core ingredients, sourcing, distribution, and packaging practices can be confusing for consumers in the absence of the kind of public watchdog that is proactive in other countries.

What’s the real cost?

For companies built on offering alternatives to animal products, it’s time to back up claims of environmental and health benefits with proof. Beyond Meat offered few details on either front during the earnings call.

“The problem is not whether we can mimic nature, it’s about unintended consequences,” said Shen Tong, a founder of the FoodFutureCo accelerator for food tech startups. He argued that historically the promise of processed food, driven by lower costs and profitability, didn’t turn out so well in terms of long-term nutritional value. The allure of plant-based food presents the same risk.

“That’s where you get into dangerous territory," said Tong. "You start playing God.”

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