正常情況下,美元兌歐元或英鎊漲跌1%,,已經(jīng)算是較大幅度的波動,。但現(xiàn)在屬于非常時期,。
美國外匯市場的日均交易量高達6.6萬億美元。最近幾天,,面對全球新型冠狀病毒疫情大流行,,恐慌不安的投資者紛紛拋售手里的資產(chǎn)換成美元,使美國外匯市場也出現(xiàn)了與股市和石油市場類似的大幅波動,。
上周三,,英鎊兌所向無敵的美元匯率下跌約4%,跌至35年來最低的水平,,挪威克朗兌美元匯率暴跌了7%,。雖然之后英鎊有小幅回升,但依舊維持在撒切爾時代的水平,。
在極度混亂的時期,,匯率漲跌就會成為對國家命運的一次投注。如果投資者認為在一場戰(zhàn)爭中或者在當前這場感染30多萬人,、導致超過1.3萬人死亡的全球疫情中,,某些國家最有可能取得勝利,他們就會抬高這些國家的貨幣價格,。但這一次,,這種心理只能解釋美元大幅升值的部分原因。
投資者選擇值得信任的避險貨幣,,使美元大幅升值,,與此同時,被投資者認為存在更高風險的國家貨幣卻紛紛貶值,。以英國為例,,一方面英國正在努力與歐盟談判英國脫歐之后的貿(mào)易協(xié)定,與此同時還要應對新型冠狀病毒對經(jīng)濟的毀滅性打擊,。
此外,,沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯本月有關(guān)限制石油產(chǎn)量的新協(xié)議談判破裂,引發(fā)了石油價格戰(zhàn),,并且在石油需求因新冠疫情大幅減少的時候大量原油涌入市場,,使產(chǎn)油國的貨幣也受到了影響。歐元對其他多數(shù)貨幣一直堅挺,,但在上周,,歐元兌美元匯率跌至三年最低水平,。
許多新興市場國家的貨幣也面臨壓力。
美元指數(shù)在過去11天上漲了8%,,創(chuàng)三年新高,。美元指數(shù)跟蹤美元對其他貨幣的匯率波動。
恐慌
到底是什么原因使美元繼續(xù)保持堅挺,?一個詞:恐慌,。投資者因為新型冠狀病毒陷入巨大的恐慌,因此他們紛紛拋售高風險資產(chǎn),。黃金通常被視為終極避險資產(chǎn),,但過去兩周,黃金價格有所下降,,甚至正常情況下被視為絕對安全的美國國債也曾在某些交易日出現(xiàn)拋售潮,。
投資者和企業(yè)想要掌握現(xiàn)金,還有比全球最重要的儲備和貿(mào)易貨幣美元更合適的嗎,?外國公司和政府需要用美元償還債務(wù),。
需求增加造成了美元短缺或者流動性問題,從而擴大了外匯市場的每日漲跌幅度,。
道富全球市場歐洲,、中東、非洲宏觀策略總監(jiān)蒂姆·格拉夫表示:“當前美元短缺,,人們?yōu)榱速徺I美元不惜代價,,因為在當前的情況下,尤其是在投資者層面,,人們必須去杠桿或減少風險,,購買基準貨幣。所以投資者正在放棄看空美元和看多高收益貨幣或新興市場證券的投資,。這給美元帶來了壓力,,所以外匯市場才會出現(xiàn)極端波動,比如本周的行情變化,?!?/p>
他告訴《財富》雜志:“一般而言,金融市場在股票和債券方面是脫節(jié)的,,這兩者有不同交易平臺,,因此導致通信不暢,流動性不夠理想,,貨幣也是同樣的情況,。”
流動性
上周,,投資者為將手頭的貨幣兌換成美元所支付的溢價大幅增加,,這體現(xiàn)出市場對美元的強勁需求,。
格拉夫認為,美元上漲不止是因為“美國是當前環(huán)境下最有吸引力的經(jīng)濟體,,盡管相對于歐洲或日本來說美國確實有一定的吸引力,。”還有一部分原因是“金融系統(tǒng)的流通性”,。
格拉夫稱,,海外銀行的資產(chǎn)負債表中持有大量美元負債,,而新興市場的政府和公司發(fā)行了大量以美元標價的債務(wù),。在當前市場面臨壓力的階段,新興市場貨幣貶值,,反過來會增加他們的美元融資負債,。格拉夫表示,這種情況給貨幣互換市場帶來巨大壓力,。投資者會利用貨幣互換市場短期借貸美元,,用于償還這些債務(wù)。
他說:“通常情況下,,這些市場面臨巨大壓力,,不一定會給現(xiàn)貨市場帶來直接壓力,但現(xiàn)在顯然并非如此,?!?/p>
投資者擔心英國為防控新型冠狀病毒疫情采取的措施,可能包括全球最主要的外匯交易中心倫敦“封城”,,這種擔憂加劇了流動性危機,。英國政府隨后宣布不會限制人員出行,減少了投資者的恐慌,。
贏家和輸家
自3月6日歐佩克+協(xié)議談判破裂之后,,美元對俄羅斯盧布匯率上漲了15%。自3月9日以來美元兌英鎊匯率上漲了11%,。自2月中旬以來,,美元對墨西哥比索匯率上漲28%,兌加元匯率上漲了8%,。
上周,,由于市場擔憂全球經(jīng)濟衰退和中國需求下降可能打擊澳大利亞的煤炭和鐵礦石出口,導致澳元兌美元匯率跌至17年最低,。
只有日元和瑞士法郎等少數(shù)幾種貨幣能夠維持兌美元匯率,,因為在危機時期,這些貨幣也被視為是避險貨幣,。雖然新型冠狀病毒疫情最早在中國爆發(fā),,但中國的管制貨幣卻一直在狹窄區(qū)間內(nèi)波動,。
各有利弊
強勢美元會降低美國出口商品在海外市場的競爭力,但同時可以降低進口商品的價格,。美元升值受益的可能是普通消費者,,但美國的跨國公司,尤其是金融行業(yè),,可能受到拖累,。
美元走強會增加通脹下行壓力。美國的通貨膨脹率一直低于美聯(lián)儲提出的2%的目標,。
格拉夫認為這會出現(xiàn)問題,。“美國有通脹率目標……(強勢美元)會通過貿(mào)易渠道抑制美國的通貨膨脹率,,這是美國存在的問題,。”
他認為,,美元大幅升值“可能不利于美國的經(jīng)濟增長和美國的名義增長,,尤其是通貨膨脹?!?/p>
他說:“在當前的環(huán)境下,,美元升值對金融系統(tǒng)的危害更嚴重,因為強勢美元會破壞金融系統(tǒng),,而美聯(lián)儲則要努力保證金融系統(tǒng)的正常運行,。而且美元走強會使情況變得更復雜,因為全球貿(mào)易依舊以美元計價,。所以,,美元是全球貿(mào)易金融的結(jié)算貨幣。因此,,更強勢的美元只會讓所有重要的全球供應鏈的情況變得更加復雜,。”
美聯(lián)儲的舉措
美聯(lián)儲已經(jīng)采取行動,,以緩解海外的美元短缺,。美聯(lián)儲和歐洲央行以及加拿大、英國,、日本和瑞士的中央銀行在上周日宣布采取協(xié)調(diào)行動,,通過調(diào)低現(xiàn)有的美元流動性互換協(xié)議的定價,為全球市場提供更多流動性支持,。
根據(jù)美元流動性互換協(xié)議,,其他國家的央行可以用等額本國貨幣,向美聯(lián)儲兌換美元。所有經(jīng)濟體都需要有現(xiàn)成的渠道獲得美元(實際意義上的全球貨幣),。
美聯(lián)儲在周四宣布,,將與澳大利亞、巴西,、丹麥,、韓國、墨西哥,、挪威,、新西蘭、新加坡和瑞典等國的央行確立類似的美元流動性互換協(xié)議,。之后,,各國央行可以向國內(nèi)商業(yè)銀行供應美元,最終發(fā)放到客戶手中,。
格拉夫認為,,這種互換協(xié)議已經(jīng)開始緩解市場壓力,。
他說:“總體上而言,,與兩三天前相比,今天美元互換市場看起來更健康,,但還遠遠沒有恢復正常,。過去兩三天,美元互換市場之所以有所改善,,是因為除了日本央行,、歐洲央行和英格蘭銀行以外,美國與其他多個國家的中央銀行確立了美元互換協(xié)議……互換協(xié)議的范圍越大,,包括更多新興市場的央行加入,,它的效果越好,因為2008年金融危機之后就是這樣的情況,?!?/p>
美國是否會使美元貶值?
美國數(shù)十年來一直執(zhí)行的是強勢美元政策,,因為美國政府認為美元作為一種儲備和投資貨幣,,必須保持穩(wěn)定。但美國總統(tǒng)特朗普卻并不認同強勢美元,。2019年8月,,他在推文中寫道:“作為你們的總統(tǒng),有人或許認為我會對非常強勢的美元感到興奮,。我沒有,!跟其他國家相比,美聯(lián)儲的高利率讓美元始終處在高點,讓卡特彼勒,、波音,、約翰迪爾這些偉大的美國制造企業(yè)和我們的汽車廠商的處境更加艱難,無法公平競爭,?!?/p>
有人猜測美聯(lián)儲可能會與其他國家的央行聯(lián)合采取協(xié)調(diào)行動,干預外匯市場,,使美元貶值,,類似于2011年日本海嘯之后,七國集團的主要經(jīng)濟體攜手使日元貶值的做法,。
挪威央行在上周四威脅,,將通過干預措施阻止挪威貨幣克朗繼續(xù)貶值。自兩周前歐佩克協(xié)議談判破裂之后,,挪威克朗兌美元匯率下跌了14%,。挪威央行在聲明中表示:“在這種背景下,挪威銀行將繼續(xù)評估通過購買挪威克朗干預外匯市場的必要性,?!?/p>
格拉夫認為與兩個月前相比,各國通過某種形式的協(xié)調(diào)干預使美元貶值的幾率更高,,但他對此依舊存在疑問,。“問題是誰有美元可以賣,?當然美國可以,。但中國、日本,、歐元區(qū)(在一定程度上)等儲備貨幣持有國,,尤其是中國,是否會賣掉大量美元,,并使本國貨幣大幅升值,?因為這意味著這些國家需要賣掉美國國債,但美國肯定不希望他們這么做,?!?/p>
利率不是影響因素
以往影響匯率漲跌的各種因素,例如利率水平,、通貨膨脹,、經(jīng)常項目平衡等,現(xiàn)在變得不再重要,。重要的是一個國家防控疫情和避免經(jīng)濟受到持續(xù)傷害的策略是否有效,。
通常情況下,央行降息和增發(fā)貨幣購買政府債券,會使本國貨幣貶值,。但在此次危機期間,,各國政府和央行防控疫情和使經(jīng)濟恢復正軌的果斷舉措,卻受到了外匯市場的歡迎,。
美國政府現(xiàn)在也在全力以赴,,減少新型冠狀病毒疫情對經(jīng)濟的影響。特朗普政府迫切希望1萬億美元刺激(實際規(guī)??赡芨撸┓桨改軌蛲ㄟ^,,美聯(lián)儲則將利率下調(diào)至接近零,并啟動了7000億美元量化寬松計劃,。
雖然市場對政府應對疫情的果斷舉措表示歡迎,,但依舊有人擔心,為了落實這些緊急措施,,政府的海外負債會大幅增加,。
為什么英鎊會大幅貶值?
近幾周,,英鎊兌美元和英鎊兌歐元的匯率雙雙大幅下跌,。3月9日,1英鎊可兌1.31美元,,上周下跌至1.15美元,,之后又有小幅回升。不要搞錯 —— 英鎊的貶值令人感到震驚,。
英國政府宣布撥款3300億英鎊(約合3900億美元)幫助企業(yè)應對新型冠狀病毒。英國首相鮑里斯·約翰遜領(lǐng)導的政府,,最初因為防控疫情行動遲緩而遭到批評,,后來,政府命令學校,、酒吧,、餐廳和健身房全部關(guān)閉。即使在新冠疫情爆發(fā)之前,,外界預測英國經(jīng)濟的增長幅度也只有可憐的1.1%?,F(xiàn)在,英國和全球經(jīng)濟都面臨衰退的可能,。
英國在1月底正式脫離歐盟,。雙方關(guān)于未來貿(mào)易關(guān)系的談判因為新冠疫情的爆發(fā)被迫中斷,使更多人質(zhì)疑雙方能否在12月31日截止日期之前達成協(xié)議,。
上周,,受疫情影響,原定于在倫敦進行的談判取消。歐盟首席談判代表米歇爾·巴尼耶因新型冠狀病毒檢測呈陽性,,目前正在進行隔離,。約翰遜已經(jīng)拒絕延長截止期限,因此外界擔憂一旦雙方無法達成協(xié)議,,英國經(jīng)濟會再遭重創(chuàng),。
在解釋英鎊貶值的原因時,格拉夫說:“英國是一個雙重赤字經(jīng)濟體,。我們預計未來英國會出現(xiàn)巨大的預算赤字,。英國已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了很大的經(jīng)常項目赤字,需要資金填補赤字缺口,,而為了吸引資本進入,,英國政府將不得不做出讓步?!?/p>
他說:“大多數(shù)外匯機構(gòu)都看多英鎊,,但我們持看空的態(tài)度?!?/p>
反彈有望,?
格拉夫認為,貶值的貨幣最終會有所反彈,?!爱斍坝幸环N或者兩種強勢貨幣,分別是美元和中國的人民幣,,當然這取決于你如何看待人民幣,。其他貨幣走弱,尤其是挪威克朗,、英鎊和澳元本周大幅貶值,,所以這些貨幣肯定會反彈。但我們很難預測反彈會從什么時候開始,,持續(xù)多長時間,。”
與此同時,,美元的霸主地位依舊不可動搖,。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Biz
正常情況下,美元兌歐元或英鎊漲跌1%,,已經(jīng)算是較大幅度的波動,。但現(xiàn)在屬于非常時期。
美國外匯市場的日均交易量高達6.6萬億美元,。最近幾天,,面對全球新型冠狀病毒疫情大流行,,恐慌不安的投資者紛紛拋售手里的資產(chǎn)換成美元,使美國外匯市場也出現(xiàn)了與股市和石油市場類似的大幅波動,。
上周三,,英鎊兌所向無敵的美元匯率下跌約4%,跌至35年來最低的水平,,挪威克朗兌美元匯率暴跌了7%,。雖然之后英鎊有小幅回升,但依舊維持在撒切爾時代的水平,。
在極度混亂的時期,,匯率漲跌就會成為對國家命運的一次投注。如果投資者認為在一場戰(zhàn)爭中或者在當前這場感染30多萬人,、導致超過1.3萬人死亡的全球疫情中,,某些國家最有可能取得勝利,他們就會抬高這些國家的貨幣價格,。但這一次,,這種心理只能解釋美元大幅升值的部分原因。
投資者選擇值得信任的避險貨幣,,使美元大幅升值,,與此同時,被投資者認為存在更高風險的國家貨幣卻紛紛貶值,。以英國為例,,一方面英國正在努力與歐盟談判英國脫歐之后的貿(mào)易協(xié)定,與此同時還要應對新型冠狀病毒對經(jīng)濟的毀滅性打擊,。
此外,,沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯本月有關(guān)限制石油產(chǎn)量的新協(xié)議談判破裂,引發(fā)了石油價格戰(zhàn),,并且在石油需求因新冠疫情大幅減少的時候大量原油涌入市場,,使產(chǎn)油國的貨幣也受到了影響。歐元對其他多數(shù)貨幣一直堅挺,,但在上周,歐元兌美元匯率跌至三年最低水平,。
許多新興市場國家的貨幣也面臨壓力,。
美元指數(shù)在過去11天上漲了8%,創(chuàng)三年新高,。美元指數(shù)跟蹤美元對其他貨幣的匯率波動,。
恐慌
到底是什么原因使美元繼續(xù)保持堅挺?一個詞:恐慌,。投資者因為新型冠狀病毒陷入巨大的恐慌,,因此他們紛紛拋售高風險資產(chǎn),。黃金通常被視為終極避險資產(chǎn),但過去兩周,,黃金價格有所下降,,甚至正常情況下被視為絕對安全的美國國債也曾在某些交易日出現(xiàn)拋售潮。
投資者和企業(yè)想要掌握現(xiàn)金,,還有比全球最重要的儲備和貿(mào)易貨幣美元更合適的嗎,?外國公司和政府需要用美元償還債務(wù)。
需求增加造成了美元短缺或者流動性問題,,從而擴大了外匯市場的每日漲跌幅度,。
道富全球市場歐洲、中東,、非洲宏觀策略總監(jiān)蒂姆·格拉夫表示:“當前美元短缺,,人們?yōu)榱速徺I美元不惜代價,因為在當前的情況下,,尤其是在投資者層面,,人們必須去杠桿或減少風險,購買基準貨幣,。所以投資者正在放棄看空美元和看多高收益貨幣或新興市場證券的投資,。這給美元帶來了壓力,所以外匯市場才會出現(xiàn)極端波動,,比如本周的行情變化,。”
他告訴《財富》雜志:“一般而言,,金融市場在股票和債券方面是脫節(jié)的,,這兩者有不同交易平臺,因此導致通信不暢,,流動性不夠理想,,貨幣也是同樣的情況?!?/p>
流動性
上周,,投資者為將手頭的貨幣兌換成美元所支付的溢價大幅增加,這體現(xiàn)出市場對美元的強勁需求,。
格拉夫認為,,美元上漲不止是因為“美國是當前環(huán)境下最有吸引力的經(jīng)濟體,盡管相對于歐洲或日本來說美國確實有一定的吸引力,?!边€有一部分原因是“金融系統(tǒng)的流通性”。
格拉夫稱,,海外銀行的資產(chǎn)負債表中持有大量美元負債,,而新興市場的政府和公司發(fā)行了大量以美元標價的債務(wù),。在當前市場面臨壓力的階段,新興市場貨幣貶值,,反過來會增加他們的美元融資負債,。格拉夫表示,這種情況給貨幣互換市場帶來巨大壓力,。投資者會利用貨幣互換市場短期借貸美元,,用于償還這些債務(wù)。
他說:“通常情況下,,這些市場面臨巨大壓力,,不一定會給現(xiàn)貨市場帶來直接壓力,但現(xiàn)在顯然并非如此,?!?/p>
投資者擔心英國為防控新型冠狀病毒疫情采取的措施,可能包括全球最主要的外匯交易中心倫敦“封城”,,這種擔憂加劇了流動性危機,。英國政府隨后宣布不會限制人員出行,減少了投資者的恐慌,。
贏家和輸家
自3月6日歐佩克+協(xié)議談判破裂之后,,美元對俄羅斯盧布匯率上漲了15%。自3月9日以來美元兌英鎊匯率上漲了11%,。自2月中旬以來,,美元對墨西哥比索匯率上漲28%,兌加元匯率上漲了8%,。
上周,,由于市場擔憂全球經(jīng)濟衰退和中國需求下降可能打擊澳大利亞的煤炭和鐵礦石出口,導致澳元兌美元匯率跌至17年最低,。
只有日元和瑞士法郎等少數(shù)幾種貨幣能夠維持兌美元匯率,,因為在危機時期,這些貨幣也被視為是避險貨幣,。雖然新型冠狀病毒疫情最早在中國爆發(fā),,但中國的管制貨幣卻一直在狹窄區(qū)間內(nèi)波動。
各有利弊
強勢美元會降低美國出口商品在海外市場的競爭力,,但同時可以降低進口商品的價格,。美元升值受益的可能是普通消費者,但美國的跨國公司,,尤其是金融行業(yè),可能受到拖累,。
美元走強會增加通脹下行壓力,。美國的通貨膨脹率一直低于美聯(lián)儲提出的2%的目標,。
格拉夫認為這會出現(xiàn)問題?!懊绹型浡誓繕恕◤妱菝涝ㄟ^貿(mào)易渠道抑制美國的通貨膨脹率,,這是美國存在的問題?!?/p>
他認為,,美元大幅升值“可能不利于美國的經(jīng)濟增長和美國的名義增長,尤其是通貨膨脹,?!?/p>
他說:“在當前的環(huán)境下,美元升值對金融系統(tǒng)的危害更嚴重,,因為強勢美元會破壞金融系統(tǒng),,而美聯(lián)儲則要努力保證金融系統(tǒng)的正常運行。而且美元走強會使情況變得更復雜,,因為全球貿(mào)易依舊以美元計價,。所以,美元是全球貿(mào)易金融的結(jié)算貨幣,。因此,,更強勢的美元只會讓所有重要的全球供應鏈的情況變得更加復雜?!?/p>
美聯(lián)儲的舉措
美聯(lián)儲已經(jīng)采取行動,,以緩解海外的美元短缺。美聯(lián)儲和歐洲央行以及加拿大,、英國,、日本和瑞士的中央銀行在上周日宣布采取協(xié)調(diào)行動,通過調(diào)低現(xiàn)有的美元流動性互換協(xié)議的定價,,為全球市場提供更多流動性支持,。
根據(jù)美元流動性互換協(xié)議,其他國家的央行可以用等額本國貨幣,,向美聯(lián)儲兌換美元,。所有經(jīng)濟體都需要有現(xiàn)成的渠道獲得美元(實際意義上的全球貨幣)。
美聯(lián)儲在周四宣布,,將與澳大利亞,、巴西、丹麥,、韓國,、墨西哥、挪威,、新西蘭,、新加坡和瑞典等國的央行確立類似的美元流動性互換協(xié)議,。之后,各國央行可以向國內(nèi)商業(yè)銀行供應美元,,最終發(fā)放到客戶手中,。
格拉夫認為,這種互換協(xié)議已經(jīng)開始緩解市場壓力,。
他說:“總體上而言,,與兩三天前相比,今天美元互換市場看起來更健康,,但還遠遠沒有恢復正常,。過去兩三天,美元互換市場之所以有所改善,,是因為除了日本央行,、歐洲央行和英格蘭銀行以外,美國與其他多個國家的中央銀行確立了美元互換協(xié)議……互換協(xié)議的范圍越大,,包括更多新興市場的央行加入,,它的效果越好,因為2008年金融危機之后就是這樣的情況,?!?/p>
美國是否會使美元貶值?
美國數(shù)十年來一直執(zhí)行的是強勢美元政策,,因為美國政府認為美元作為一種儲備和投資貨幣,,必須保持穩(wěn)定。但美國總統(tǒng)特朗普卻并不認同強勢美元,。2019年8月,,他在推文中寫道:“作為你們的總統(tǒng),有人或許認為我會對非常強勢的美元感到興奮,。我沒有,!跟其他國家相比,美聯(lián)儲的高利率讓美元始終處在高點,,讓卡特彼勒,、波音、約翰迪爾這些偉大的美國制造企業(yè)和我們的汽車廠商的處境更加艱難,,無法公平競爭,。”
有人猜測美聯(lián)儲可能會與其他國家的央行聯(lián)合采取協(xié)調(diào)行動,,干預外匯市場,,使美元貶值,類似于2011年日本海嘯之后,七國集團的主要經(jīng)濟體攜手使日元貶值的做法,。
挪威央行在上周四威脅,,將通過干預措施阻止挪威貨幣克朗繼續(xù)貶值。自兩周前歐佩克協(xié)議談判破裂之后,,挪威克朗兌美元匯率下跌了14%。挪威央行在聲明中表示:“在這種背景下,,挪威銀行將繼續(xù)評估通過購買挪威克朗干預外匯市場的必要性,。”
格拉夫認為與兩個月前相比,,各國通過某種形式的協(xié)調(diào)干預使美元貶值的幾率更高,,但他對此依舊存在疑問?!皢栴}是誰有美元可以賣,?當然美國可以。但中國,、日本,、歐元區(qū)(在一定程度上)等儲備貨幣持有國,尤其是中國,,是否會賣掉大量美元,,并使本國貨幣大幅升值?因為這意味著這些國家需要賣掉美國國債,,但美國肯定不希望他們這么做,。”
利率不是影響因素
以往影響匯率漲跌的各種因素,,例如利率水平,、通貨膨脹、經(jīng)常項目平衡等,,現(xiàn)在變得不再重要,。重要的是一個國家防控疫情和避免經(jīng)濟受到持續(xù)傷害的策略是否有效。
通常情況下,,央行降息和增發(fā)貨幣購買政府債券,,會使本國貨幣貶值。但在此次危機期間,,各國政府和央行防控疫情和使經(jīng)濟恢復正軌的果斷舉措,,卻受到了外匯市場的歡迎。
美國政府現(xiàn)在也在全力以赴,,減少新型冠狀病毒疫情對經(jīng)濟的影響,。特朗普政府迫切希望1萬億美元刺激(實際規(guī)模可能更高)方案能夠通過,美聯(lián)儲則將利率下調(diào)至接近零,,并啟動了7000億美元量化寬松計劃,。
雖然市場對政府應對疫情的果斷舉措表示歡迎,但依舊有人擔心,,為了落實這些緊急措施,,政府的海外負債會大幅增加。
為什么英鎊會大幅貶值,?
近幾周,,英鎊兌美元和英鎊兌歐元的匯率雙雙大幅下跌。3月9日,,1英鎊可兌1.31美元,,上周下跌至1.15美元,之后又有小幅回升,。不要搞錯 —— 英鎊的貶值令人感到震驚,。
英國政府宣布撥款3300億英鎊(約合3900億美元)幫助企業(yè)應對新型冠狀病毒。英國首相鮑里斯·約翰遜領(lǐng)導的政府,,最初因為防控疫情行動遲緩而遭到批評,,后來,政府命令學校,、酒吧,、餐廳和健身房全部關(guān)閉。即使在新冠疫情爆發(fā)之前,,外界預測英國經(jīng)濟的增長幅度也只有可憐的1.1%?,F(xiàn)在,英國和全球經(jīng)濟都面臨衰退的可能,。
英國在1月底正式脫離歐盟,。雙方關(guān)于未來貿(mào)易關(guān)系的談判因為新冠疫情的爆發(fā)被迫中斷,使更多人質(zhì)疑雙方能否在12月31日截止日期之前達成協(xié)議,。
上周,,受疫情影響,原定于在倫敦進行的談判取消,。歐盟首席談判代表米歇爾·巴尼耶因新型冠狀病毒檢測呈陽性,,目前正在進行隔離。約翰遜已經(jīng)拒絕延長截止期限,,因此外界擔憂一旦雙方無法達成協(xié)議,,英國經(jīng)濟會再遭重創(chuàng)。
在解釋英鎊貶值的原因時,,格拉夫說:“英國是一個雙重赤字經(jīng)濟體,。我們預計未來英國會出現(xiàn)巨大的預算赤字,。英國已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了很大的經(jīng)常項目赤字,需要資金填補赤字缺口,,而為了吸引資本進入,,英國政府將不得不做出讓步?!?/p>
他說:“大多數(shù)外匯機構(gòu)都看多英鎊,,但我們持看空的態(tài)度?!?/p>
反彈有望,?
格拉夫認為,貶值的貨幣最終會有所反彈,。“當前有一種或者兩種強勢貨幣,,分別是美元和中國的人民幣,,當然這取決于你如何看待人民幣。其他貨幣走弱,,尤其是挪威克朗,、英鎊和澳元本周大幅貶值,所以這些貨幣肯定會反彈,。但我們很難預測反彈會從什么時候開始,,持續(xù)多長時間?!?/p>
與此同時,,美元的霸主地位依舊不可動搖。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Biz
In normal times, a 1% daily change in the value of the dollar against the euro or the British pound would be a big move. These are not normal times.
The $6.6 trillion-a-day?foreign exchange market has experienced dramatic swings similar to those seen on stock exchanges or oil markets in recent days as panicked investors react to the global coronavirus pandemic by dumping everything in exchange for the greenback.
The British pound fell by around 4% against the all-conquering dollar, hitting a 35-year low, Wednesday while Norway’s krone slumped by a staggering 7%. The pound clawed back a bit of lost ground but it's still trading at Thatcher-era levels.
In times of tremendous turmoil, the rise and fall of currencies become a proxy bet about the fate of nations. Investors bid up the currencies they believe are best positioned to win a war, or, in this case, a global pandemic that's infected more than 300,000, killing more than 13,000. This time around, that can explain only part of the dollar's surge.
The dollar is rising inexorably as investors flock to a trusted safe haven while the currencies of countries perceived as more risky, such as Britain, which is trying to negotiate a post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union at the same time as it must deal with the devastating economic fallout of the coronavirus outbreak, take a beating.
The currencies of oil producers are also being hit after Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to agree on a new oil production-limiting agreement this month, opening the way to an oil price war and a flood of crude just as demand has collapsed because of coronavirus. The euro, strong against most other currencies, hit a three-year low against the dollar last week.
The currencies of many emerging market countries are also under pressure.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of other currencies, has risen 8% in the last 11 days, hitting a three-year high.
Fear factor
So what is driving the dollar’s persistent strength? In a word: Fear. The coronavirus panic has gripped investors so tightly that they are fleeing risky assets. The price of gold, usually perceived as the ultimate safe haven, has dipped in the last two weeks and even normally safe-as-houses U.S. Treasuries have sold off on some days.
Investors and businesses want cash, and what better cash to hold than the dollar, the world’s leading reserve and trading currency? Foreign companies and governments need dollars to pay off debts in the U.S. currency.
All this has led to a shortage of dollars, or a liquidity problem, which has magnified daily moves in the foreign exchange markets.
“People are just short of dollars and buying them really at any cost because they are going through situations where—especially more at the investor level—they have to deleverage or de-risk and get to benchmark. So anything that is short of dollars and long some sort of higher yielding currency or emerging market instrument, that’s just being unwound. That puts pressure on the dollar, so you get the moves that are as extreme as we’ve seen this week happening,” says Tim Graf, head of macro strategy EMEA at State StreetGlobal Markets.
“And also just generally, financial markets are dislocated in equities, in bonds, you have trading desks working split sites and therefore the communication isn’t as good, the liquidity isn’t as good and that goes for currencies too,” he told Fortune.
The liquidity factor
Premiums paid by investors to swap their currencies for dollars surged last week, reflecting the strong demand for the U.S. currency.
The dollar is rising not so much because “the U.S. is the most attractive economy in this environment, although it probably has that appeal still relative to say Europe or Japan,” Graf said. It was also partly due to “the plumbing of the financial system.”
Overseas banks had a lot of dollar liabilities on their balance sheets while governments and companies in emerging markets issued a lot of dollar-denominated debt, Graf said. At times of market stress, such as now, emerging market currencies depreciate, which in turn increases their dollar funding liability. That leads to currency swap markets, which are used to borrow dollars short-term to cover those liabilities, getting really stressed, Graf says.
“When those markets get very stressed, oftentimes it doesn’t necessarily lead to direct pressure on the spot market, but right now it is,” he said.
The liquidity crisis was aggravated by fears that London, the world’s leading foreign exchange dealing hub, could be “l(fā)ocked down” as part of official measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak. The government has played this down, saying there will be no limits on movement.
Winners and losers
The dollar is up 15% against the Russian rouble since the OPEC+ agreement broke down on March 6 and up by 11% against the British pound since March 9. It's up 28% against the Mexican peso and 8% versus the Canadian dollar since mid-February.
The Australian dollar slumped to a 17-year low against the U.S. currency last week on fears that its exports of coal and iron ore will be hit by global recession and falling Chinese demand.
The Japanese yen and Swiss franc have been among the few currencies to hold their own against the dollar, as they are also seen as safe havens in a crisis. China’s managed currency has traded in a tight range even though the coronavirus outbreak originated there.
Pros and cons
A strong dollar makes U.S. exports less competitive in overseas markets while making imported goods cheaper for Americans. It's a potential win for consumers and drag for America's multinationals, particularly the finance sector.
The dollar’s strength could put further downwards pressure on inflation which has persistently undercut the Fed’s 2% target.
Graf says that’s a problem. “For the U.S., it’s problematic in the sense that the U.S. has an inflation target … (A strong dollar) suppresses U.S. inflation through the trade channel.”
A surging dollar was “detrimental potentially for the U.S. economy and for U.S. nominal growth and particularly U.S. inflation,” he said.
“It’s detrimental really, in this episode, far more for the financial system because a strong dollar basically throws sand in the gears of the financial system whereas the Fed is trying to grease the gears of the financial system. And the dollar really complicates that because global trade is still heavily invoiced in dollars. Therefore global trade finance is transacted in dollars. So a stronger dollar just makes it more complicated for pretty much every global supply chain of significance,” he said.
Fed action
The Federal Reserve has acted to ease the dollar shortage abroad. The Fed and the European Central Bank, plus the central banks of Canada, Britain, Japan and Switzerland, announced coordinated action?last Sunday to provide greater liquidity by lowering the pricing of existing U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements.
The swap lines enable other central banks to receive U.S. dollars from the Fed in exchange for an equivalent amount of their currencies provided to the Federal Reserve. All economies need ready access to dollars, the de-facto global currency.
On Thursday, the Fed announced it was setting up similar U.S. dollar liquidity arrangements with the central banks?of Australia, Brazil, Denmark, South Korea, Mexico, Norway, New Zealand, Singapore and Sweden. The central banks can then supply those dollars to commercial banks in their countries, which can pass them on to customers.
Graf said these swap lines were starting to ease the stress in the market.
“In aggregate, the dollar swap market looks a lot healthier today than it did say two or three days ago. It’s not quite back to normal. Why it has improved specifically in the last day or two is those swap lines have been opened to other central banks beyond the Bank of Japan, ECB, the Bank of England … The more they expand the scope of swap lines to include emerging market central banks, the better this will get because that’s exactly what happened in the crisis of 2008,” he said.
Could the U.S. weaken the dollar?
For decades, the U.S. has had a strong-dollar policy, believing that its role as a reserve and investment currency requires it to be stable. But President Trump is no fan of the strong dollar. In August 2019, he tweeted: “As your President, one would think that I would be thrilled with our very strong dollar. I am not! The Fed’s high interest rate level, in comparison to other countries, is keeping the dollar high, making it more difficult for our great manufacturers like Caterpillar, Boeing, John Deere, our car companies, & others, to compete on a level playing field.”
There has been speculation that the U.S. and other central banks could join together in coordinated foreign exchange market intervention to weaken the dollar much in the same way that the Group of Seven major economies banded together to weaken the yen after the 2011 tsunami in Japan.
The Norwegian?central bank threatened intervention Thursday to stop the slide in the Norwegian currency, the krone, which has fallen 14% since the OPEC agreement collapsed two weeks ago. “Against this background Norges Bank is continuously considering whether there is a need to intervene in the market by purchasing Norwegian kroner,” it said in a statement.
Graf says he believes there is a better chance of some form of coordinated intervention to weaken the dollar happening than there was two months ago, but he still has doubts. “The issue is who has dollars to sell? Of course the U.S. does. The other owners of reserve currencies—China, Japan, the euro zone to some degree—are they going to really sell that many dollars and drive their own currencies up that much more, especially China, because that entails selling Treasurys which the U.S. probably doesn’t want them to do?”
Interest rates not a factor
Factors that usually influence a currency’s weakness or strength, such as the level of interest rates, inflation, the current account balance, are less important right now than the effectiveness of a country’s strategy for containing coronavirus and avoiding lasting damage to the economy.
Typically, a central bank’s move to slash interest rates and create money to buy government bonds would weaken a country’s currency. But in the current crisis, foreign exchange markets are cheering decisive action by governments and central banks to contain coronavirus and get their economies back on track.
The U.S. government is now pulling out all the stops to lessen the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the economy. The Trump administration is pressing for a $1 trillion stimulus package?(which may go much higher than that) while the Fed has slashed rates to near zero and launched a $700 billion quantitative easing program.
While markets have welcomed decisive government action on coronavirus, there are still lingering fears over the debt governments around the world will build up to pay for these emergency measures.
Why is the pound tanking?
The British pound has fallen sharply in recent weeks—not only against the dollar but also against the euro. Sterling was trading at $1.31 on March 9 but dropped below $1.15 last week before recovering slightly. Make no mistake—that's a staggering fall.
British authorities have announced 330 billion pounds?($390 billion) to help business cope with coronavirus, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government, after initially facing criticism that it had been slow to act to contain the outbreak, has ordered the closure of schools as well as pubs, restaurants and gyms. The British economy was forecast to grow by an anemic 1.1% this year even before coronavirus hit. Now, Britain and the global economy face the prospect of recession.
Talks on Britain’s future trading relationship with the European Union, which it left at the end of January, have been disrupted by the coronavirus outbreak, fueling doubts about whether a deal can be negotiated by the December 31 deadline.
A round of talks in London was canceled last week due to the outbreak and the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier is in isolation after testing positive for the virus. Johnson has ruled out seeking an extension to the deadline, raising fears that the British economy could face another shock if no agreement is reached.
“The U.K. is a twin-deficit economy. We’re talking about huge budget deficits to come. It already has a big current account deficit and that requires funding and therefore you need to build in a concession to attract capital to fund deficits,” Graf said, explaining why the pound was sinking.
“Sterling was also a massive consensus long for most of the (foreign exchange) community—except for us, we were quite short,” he said.
Recovery in the works?
Slumping currencies should eventually recoup some of their losses, says Graf. “There are one or two expensive currencies out there, that is the dollar and possibly the (Chinese) renminbi, depending on how you look at it. Everything else is cheap and especially after this week exceedingly cheap for currencies like Norway, sterling, the Aussie dollar, so yes they will recover. It’s hard to know when that recovery starts and how long it will take.”
In the meantime, it's king dollar all the way.