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疫情下,刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)這招最有效,,為何美國就是不考慮,?

Shawn Tully
2020-03-27

很可惜,,對于這項措施,美國的政策制定者們視而不見,。

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美國國會正在為救市計劃吵得不可開交。該計劃將耗費(fèi)納稅人數(shù)萬億美元,。但值得注意的是,,面對新冠疫情危機(jī),有一種強(qiáng)有力的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激措施無需任何成本,,那就是取消外國進(jìn)口關(guān)稅,并說服全球貿(mào)易伙伴同樣取消對美國商品的關(guān)稅,。

很可惜,,對于這項措施,美國的政策制定者們視而不見,。關(guān)稅是對商品征收的稅費(fèi),即使臨時取消關(guān)稅,,也能大幅降低消費(fèi)者購買從洗衣機(jī)到運(yùn)動鞋等各種商品的價格,,提高美國制造商的效率,,并擴(kuò)大對外出口,。比如恢復(fù)對中國的大豆出口,可以增加農(nóng)民收入,,而且不會加重聯(lián)邦政府沉重的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān),。

雖然實(shí)施零關(guān)稅這種措施在華盛頓沒有市場,,但筆者采訪過多位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,以評估疫情可能對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生的破壞,,這種措施得到了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們的支持。有兩位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家?guī)字芮耙呀?jīng)開始主張推行這項政策,。資產(chǎn)管理巨頭資本集團(tuán)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家賈里德·弗朗茲表示:“這項措施可以馬上執(zhí)行,,不需要獲得國會批準(zhǔn),。當(dāng)前這種危機(jī)時刻需要取消全球關(guān)稅,,美國應(yīng)該發(fā)揮帶頭作用?!?/p>

太盟投資集團(tuán)負(fù)責(zé)人、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士單偉建認(rèn)為,,應(yīng)對即將到來的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,,取消關(guān)稅是一種重要手段,。太盟投資集團(tuán)是亞洲最大的私募股權(quán)公司。他表示:“關(guān)稅在經(jīng)濟(jì)中占很大一部分,。經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時期,,我們或許感受不到。但當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的時候,,關(guān)稅會進(jìn)一步抑制需求,增加消費(fèi)者的成本,?!眴蝹ソú┦拷ㄗh美國取消所有關(guān)稅,并要求貿(mào)易伙伴國家提供互惠待遇,,而不是像過去兩年一樣針鋒相對地提高關(guān)稅,結(jié)果導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)受到傷害,。

大批美國企業(yè)呼吁政府采取措施,。雖然鋼鋁等行業(yè)非常重視高關(guān)稅,,因為高關(guān)稅可以減少來自低成本進(jìn)口商品的競爭,但多數(shù)行業(yè)都將從自由貿(mào)易中受益,,因此呼吁降低關(guān)稅。隨著數(shù)十年來最慘烈的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退加速,,許多行業(yè)都請求華盛頓采取貿(mào)易救濟(jì)措施,。3月初,,代表照明、果汁,、休閑車等各行各業(yè)的100多個行業(yè)組織致信美國總統(tǒng)特朗普和其他政府高官,,請求政府取消對中國商品和全球鋼材加征的進(jìn)口關(guān)稅。特朗普的貿(mào)易顧問彼得·納瓦羅回絕了他們的請求,。他告訴《華爾街日報》:“取消或降低對華關(guān)稅,,等于美國就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長付出更高的代價,,結(jié)果卻救助了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)?!?/p>

降低關(guān)稅能帶來多大的刺激效果,?目前,特朗普加征的關(guān)稅涵蓋了價值3600億美元的中國進(jìn)口商品,,平均關(guān)稅水平為19.3%。此外,,他還對超過300億美元全球進(jìn)口鋼,、鋁征收了巨額關(guān)稅。加征關(guān)稅付出的代價主要是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所說的“無謂成本”,。雖然關(guān)稅提高了,但美國公司仍需要繼續(xù)從中國采購機(jī)械工具或紡織品,。在這種情況下,,美國的稅收收入,,與制造商和消費(fèi)者支付的更高價格,實(shí)際上是相互抵消的,。例如,,美國每年拿出數(shù)十億美元關(guān)稅收入,,向因中國的反制措施收入減少的農(nóng)民發(fā)放補(bǔ)貼。因此,,關(guān)稅收入補(bǔ)償了更高的價格,所以在很大程度上來說,,這種交換對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)來說,,得失相抵。

加征關(guān)稅導(dǎo)致越來越多美國制造商不再從中國采購商品,,而是轉(zhuǎn)向了其他國家的供應(yīng)商,但這些國家的商品價格高于中國以前的水平,。假如一家汽車廠商去年從中國購買一個零部件的價格是100美元,。關(guān)稅增加迫使中國制造商將價格提高到120美元,。所以美國汽車廠商把訂單轉(zhuǎn)移到一家馬來西亞供應(yīng)商,但價格是110美元,。而且美國從這筆交易中得不到關(guān)稅收入。但汽車廠商卻額外支付了10美元或10%,,只是因為關(guān)稅使其不再向全世界效率最高的中國制造商采購,。將這個差額乘以成千上萬種商品,,可以看出與特朗普加征關(guān)稅以前相比,美國消費(fèi)者購買大部分商品都要支付更高的價格,。

這筆10美元的額外成本就是無謂負(fù)擔(dān)。每一美元無謂成本會減少一美元國民收入,,這是對經(jīng)濟(jì)的直接傷害,。

去年5月,紐約聯(lián)邦儲備銀行網(wǎng)站上發(fā)表了一篇文章,。在文章中,來自哥倫比亞大學(xué),、普林斯頓大學(xué)和紐約聯(lián)邦儲備銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們計算了特朗普對約3500億美元中國商品加征關(guān)稅所產(chǎn)生的無謂成本,。他們計算出每個美國家庭每年的無謂負(fù)擔(dān)為620美元,總計高達(dá)800億美元,。別忘了,特朗普還對超過300億美元進(jìn)口鋼,、鋁征收了巨額關(guān)稅,。根據(jù)合理估計,約4000億美元出口商品的無謂成本約為900億美元,。貿(mào)易摩擦的代價不止如此。面對特朗普的咄咄逼人,,中國采取了反制措施,,對以農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和鋼材為主的1100億美元美國出口商品加征關(guān)稅,。巨額關(guān)稅使美國對華出口遭遇重創(chuàng),。據(jù)《財富》雜志估計,中國的反制將使美國經(jīng)濟(jì)每年額外損失200億美元,。

如果特朗普政府取消對中國商品和全球鋼鋁的進(jìn)口關(guān)稅,,中國也采取對等措施,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)每年將增長約1100億美元,。首先,消除中國商品和全球鋼鋁制品進(jìn)口的無謂成本可以增加900億美元,,另外200億美元來自對華農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和鋼材出口增長,。去年,美國的GDP約為21萬億美元,,額外增加1100億美元相當(dāng)于GDP增長了0.5%。

如果特朗普政府同時取消對其他國家農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和紡織品等進(jìn)口商品加征的關(guān)稅,,其他國家也投桃報李,,取消對美國商品的關(guān)稅,零關(guān)稅政策將使美國GDP再增長0.1至0.2個百分點(diǎn),,相當(dāng)于未來美國GDP可以額外增長0.7%。

這個數(shù)字聽起來有些微不足道,,因為今年,,多數(shù)銀行和研究機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測美國的國民收入將減少5%甚至更多。但它代表了不小的數(shù)字,。在疫情爆發(fā)之前各界普遍預(yù)測的美國GDP增長率是2%。在此基礎(chǔ)上增長0.7%,,增長率高達(dá)35%,。如果國民收入減少5%,額外增加的1100億美元可以抵消其中的七分之一,。甚至可能更多,。對于美國各行業(yè)最好的禮物:特朗普從貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)士變身為和平使者的信號,。2018年逐步增加的關(guān)稅,扼殺了美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的活力。早在疫情爆發(fā)之前,,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)疲態(tài),。如果特朗普保證貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義不再是其核心政策,就能為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)重新注入生機(jī),。

當(dāng)然,特朗普不太可能推翻他的標(biāo)志性政策,,畢竟事實(shí)證明,,到目前為止這條政策在他的支持者當(dāng)中很受歡迎。但誰知道呢,?他已經(jīng)表現(xiàn)出了對待這個問題的靈活性,。2018年,他取消了之前對加拿大進(jìn)口鋼鋁征收的關(guān)稅,。今年1月,他與中國簽署了第一階段貿(mào)易協(xié)議,,下調(diào)了對1120億美元中國消費(fèi)品的進(jìn)口關(guān)稅,,并暫停對1600美元中國出口到美國的商品加征關(guān)稅。第一階段貿(mào)易協(xié)議受到市場歡迎,,并在2020年初提振了美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長前景。

特朗普是個特立獨(dú)行的人,,他經(jīng)常會突然改變方向,拋棄曾經(jīng)信任的顧問,。弗朗茲表示:“特朗普是個商人,。他可以在貿(mào)易方面展現(xiàn)出全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力,。”盡管特朗普這樣做的可能性不大,,但哪怕他在一定程度上降低關(guān)稅,,就能給美國帶來巨大的回報。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Biz

美國國會正在為救市計劃吵得不可開交,。該計劃將耗費(fèi)納稅人數(shù)萬億美元。但值得注意的是,,面對新冠疫情危機(jī),,有一種強(qiáng)有力的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激措施無需任何成本,那就是取消外國進(jìn)口關(guān)稅,并說服全球貿(mào)易伙伴同樣取消對美國商品的關(guān)稅,。

很可惜,對于這項措施,,美國的政策制定者們視而不見,。關(guān)稅是對商品征收的稅費(fèi),即使臨時取消關(guān)稅,,也能大幅降低消費(fèi)者購買從洗衣機(jī)到運(yùn)動鞋等各種商品的價格,提高美國制造商的效率,,并擴(kuò)大對外出口,。比如恢復(fù)對中國的大豆出口,可以增加農(nóng)民收入,,而且不會加重聯(lián)邦政府沉重的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)。

雖然實(shí)施零關(guān)稅這種措施在華盛頓沒有市場,,但筆者采訪過多位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,,以評估疫情可能對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生的破壞,這種措施得到了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們的支持,。有兩位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家?guī)字芮耙呀?jīng)開始主張推行這項政策。資產(chǎn)管理巨頭資本集團(tuán)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家賈里德·弗朗茲表示:“這項措施可以馬上執(zhí)行,,不需要獲得國會批準(zhǔn),。當(dāng)前這種危機(jī)時刻需要取消全球關(guān)稅,美國應(yīng)該發(fā)揮帶頭作用,。”

太盟投資集團(tuán)負(fù)責(zé)人,、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士單偉建認(rèn)為,,應(yīng)對即將到來的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,取消關(guān)稅是一種重要手段,。太盟投資集團(tuán)是亞洲最大的私募股權(quán)公司,。他表示:“關(guān)稅在經(jīng)濟(jì)中占很大一部分,。經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時期,我們或許感受不到,。但當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的時候,,關(guān)稅會進(jìn)一步抑制需求,,增加消費(fèi)者的成本?!眴蝹ソú┦拷ㄗh美國取消所有關(guān)稅,,并要求貿(mào)易伙伴國家提供互惠待遇,,而不是像過去兩年一樣針鋒相對地提高關(guān)稅,結(jié)果導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)受到傷害,。

大批美國企業(yè)呼吁政府采取措施,。雖然鋼鋁等行業(yè)非常重視高關(guān)稅,因為高關(guān)稅可以減少來自低成本進(jìn)口商品的競爭,,但多數(shù)行業(yè)都將從自由貿(mào)易中受益,,因此呼吁降低關(guān)稅,。隨著數(shù)十年來最慘烈的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退加速,許多行業(yè)都請求華盛頓采取貿(mào)易救濟(jì)措施,。3月初,,代表照明、果汁,、休閑車等各行各業(yè)的100多個行業(yè)組織致信美國總統(tǒng)特朗普和其他政府高官,請求政府取消對中國商品和全球鋼材加征的進(jìn)口關(guān)稅,。特朗普的貿(mào)易顧問彼得·納瓦羅回絕了他們的請求,。他告訴《華爾街日報》:“取消或降低對華關(guān)稅,等于美國就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長付出更高的代價,,結(jié)果卻救助了中國經(jīng)濟(jì),?!?/p>

降低關(guān)稅能帶來多大的刺激效果,?目前,特朗普加征的關(guān)稅涵蓋了價值3600億美元的中國進(jìn)口商品,,平均關(guān)稅水平為19.3%,。此外,他還對超過300億美元全球進(jìn)口鋼,、鋁征收了巨額關(guān)稅,。加征關(guān)稅付出的代價主要是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所說的“無謂成本”。雖然關(guān)稅提高了,,但美國公司仍需要繼續(xù)從中國采購機(jī)械工具或紡織品,。在這種情況下,美國的稅收收入,,與制造商和消費(fèi)者支付的更高價格,,實(shí)際上是相互抵消的,。例如,美國每年拿出數(shù)十億美元關(guān)稅收入,,向因中國的反制措施收入減少的農(nóng)民發(fā)放補(bǔ)貼,。因此,關(guān)稅收入補(bǔ)償了更高的價格,,所以在很大程度上來說,,這種交換對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)來說,,得失相抵。

加征關(guān)稅導(dǎo)致越來越多美國制造商不再從中國采購商品,,而是轉(zhuǎn)向了其他國家的供應(yīng)商,,但這些國家的商品價格高于中國以前的水平。假如一家汽車廠商去年從中國購買一個零部件的價格是100美元,。關(guān)稅增加迫使中國制造商將價格提高到120美元,。所以美國汽車廠商把訂單轉(zhuǎn)移到一家馬來西亞供應(yīng)商,,但價格是110美元。而且美國從這筆交易中得不到關(guān)稅收入,。但汽車廠商卻額外支付了10美元或10%,,只是因為關(guān)稅使其不再向全世界效率最高的中國制造商采購。將這個差額乘以成千上萬種商品,,可以看出與特朗普加征關(guān)稅以前相比,美國消費(fèi)者購買大部分商品都要支付更高的價格,。

這筆10美元的額外成本就是無謂負(fù)擔(dān),。每一美元無謂成本會減少一美元國民收入,這是對經(jīng)濟(jì)的直接傷害,。

去年5月,,紐約聯(lián)邦儲備銀行網(wǎng)站上發(fā)表了一篇文章,。在文章中,來自哥倫比亞大學(xué),、普林斯頓大學(xué)和紐約聯(lián)邦儲備銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們計算了特朗普對約3500億美元中國商品加征關(guān)稅所產(chǎn)生的無謂成本。他們計算出每個美國家庭每年的無謂負(fù)擔(dān)為620美元,,總計高達(dá)800億美元,。別忘了,特朗普還對超過300億美元進(jìn)口鋼,、鋁征收了巨額關(guān)稅,。根據(jù)合理估計,約4000億美元出口商品的無謂成本約為900億美元,。貿(mào)易摩擦的代價不止如此,。面對特朗普的咄咄逼人,,中國采取了反制措施,,對以農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和鋼材為主的1100億美元美國出口商品加征關(guān)稅,。巨額關(guān)稅使美國對華出口遭遇重創(chuàng)。據(jù)《財富》雜志估計,,中國的反制將使美國經(jīng)濟(jì)每年額外損失200億美元,。

如果特朗普政府取消對中國商品和全球鋼鋁的進(jìn)口關(guān)稅,中國也采取對等措施,,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)每年將增長約1100億美元,。首先,消除中國商品和全球鋼鋁制品進(jìn)口的無謂成本可以增加900億美元,,另外200億美元來自對華農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和鋼材出口增長,。去年,,美國的GDP約為21萬億美元,額外增加1100億美元相當(dāng)于GDP增長了0.5%,。

如果特朗普政府同時取消對其他國家農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和紡織品等進(jìn)口商品加征的關(guān)稅,,其他國家也投桃報李,取消對美國商品的關(guān)稅,,零關(guān)稅政策將使美國GDP再增長0.1至0.2個百分點(diǎn),相當(dāng)于未來美國GDP可以額外增長0.7%,。

這個數(shù)字聽起來有些微不足道,,因為今年,,多數(shù)銀行和研究機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測美國的國民收入將減少5%甚至更多,。但它代表了不小的數(shù)字,。在疫情爆發(fā)之前各界普遍預(yù)測的美國GDP增長率是2%,。在此基礎(chǔ)上增長0.7%,增長率高達(dá)35%,。如果國民收入減少5%,,額外增加的1100億美元可以抵消其中的七分之一。甚至可能更多,。對于美國各行業(yè)最好的禮物:特朗普從貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)士變身為和平使者的信號,。2018年逐步增加的關(guān)稅,扼殺了美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的活力,。早在疫情爆發(fā)之前,,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)疲態(tài),。如果特朗普保證貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義不再是其核心政策,,就能為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)重新注入生機(jī),。

當(dāng)然,特朗普不太可能推翻他的標(biāo)志性政策,,畢竟事實(shí)證明,,到目前為止這條政策在他的支持者當(dāng)中很受歡迎。但誰知道呢,?他已經(jīng)表現(xiàn)出了對待這個問題的靈活性,。2018年,他取消了之前對加拿大進(jìn)口鋼鋁征收的關(guān)稅,。今年1月,,他與中國簽署了第一階段貿(mào)易協(xié)議,下調(diào)了對1120億美元中國消費(fèi)品的進(jìn)口關(guān)稅,,并暫停對1600美元中國出口到美國的商品加征關(guān)稅。第一階段貿(mào)易協(xié)議受到市場歡迎,,并在2020年初提振了美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長前景,。

特朗普是個特立獨(dú)行的人,他經(jīng)常會突然改變方向,,拋棄曾經(jīng)信任的顧問,。弗朗茲表示:“特朗普是個商人,。他可以在貿(mào)易方面展現(xiàn)出全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力?!北M管特朗普這樣做的可能性不大,但哪怕他在一定程度上降低關(guān)稅,,就能給美國帶來巨大的回報,。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Biz

At a time when Congress is hotly debating a bailout package that could cost taxpayers several trillion with a tall “T,” it’s remarkable that policymakers are ignoring a powerful stimulus that can be deployed cost-free to blunt the coronavirus crisis: eliminating all tariffs on foreign imports and persuading our global trading partners to drop their duties on U.S. goods. Tariffs are taxes, and lifting them, even temporarily, would substantially lower prices to consumers on everything from washing machines to sneakers, boost the efficiency of U.S. manufacturers, and swell our exports—think of recharging our soybeans sales to China, swelling farmers’ incomes without adding a nickel to the mountainous federal debt.

Though the zero-tariff option is getting no traction in Washington, the idea wins a ringing endorsement from the economists I’ve spoken to in assessing the looming damage from the pandemic. Two of them began advocating the policy weeks ago. “It can be done instantaneously without congressional support,” says Jared Franz, an economist at asset management colossus Capital Group. “These desperate times call for cutting global tariffs to zero, with the U.S. leading the way.”

Weijian Shan, a Ph.D. economist who heads PAG, the largest private equity firm in Asia, lauds the idea as an essential counterweight to coming contraction. “Tariffs take a chunk out of the economy, which is less felt in a booming economy but which will further dampen demand and cost customers at a time when they are stretched,” he says. Shan recommends that the U.S. eliminate all duties and request reciprocal treatment from our trading partners, in a reversal of the tit-for-tat tariff hikes that have so damaged our economy over the past two years.

A wide swath of American business is calling for action. While industries such as steel and aluminum prize high tariffs because they curb competition from low-cost imports, most sectors benefit from free trade, and say so. As the steepest economic slide in decades quickens, they’re requesting trade relief from Washington. In early March, more than 100 business groups representing industries as varied as lighting, juices, and recreational vehicles wrote to President Trump and other officials requesting the elimination of the duties that the administration imposed on imports of Chinese goods, as well as steel imported from around the world. Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro waved off their plea, telling the Wall Street Journal, “To eliminate or lower the China tariffs would amount to a bailout for the China economy at the expense of even more American jobs and growth.”

How much of a boost would scotching tariffs provide? Currently, $360 billion in Chinese imports are covered by Trump-imposed duties that average 19.3%. In addition, he’s hit over $30 billion in global steel and aluminum imports with heavy tariffs. The price these taxes exact consists mainly of what economists call “deadweight costs.” When U.S. companies keep buying machine tools or textiles from China in spite of the higher duties, the U.S. collects tax revenue that offsets the higher prices to manufacturers and consumers. For example, the U.S. is channeling that revenue to furnish several billion dollars a year in subsidies to farmers whose revenues got hit by the barriers China raised in retaliation. Hence, the tariff revenue compensates for higher prices, so for the most part,the exchange is a wash to our economy.

But the higher tariffs rise, the more U.S. producers stop buying from China and source from suppliers in other countries that charge more than the Chinese used to. Say an automaker was buying a part from China that cost $100 last year. Tacking on the new tariffs is forcing the Chinese producer to raise its price to $120. So the U.S. manufacturer shifts orders to a Malaysian supplier that charges $110. The U.S. gets no tariff revenue from that sale. But the carmaker is paying $10 or 10% more, strictly because the duties prevent it from sourcing from the world’s most efficient producers in China. When those differences are multiplied by hundreds of thousands of products, U.S. consumers end up paying a lot more for much of what they buy than they did in the pre-Trump-tariff era.

That extra cost—the $10 in our example—is the deadweight burden. Every dollar in deadweight cost reduces national income by the same amount and is a direct hit to our economy.

In a paper published last May for a New York Federal Reserve website, economists from Columbia, Princeton, and the N.Y. Fed calculated the deadweight costs of Trump tariffs then covering around $350 billion in Chinese products. They put the annual burden at $620 per U.S. household, or a total of $80 billion. Keep in mind that Trump also hit over $30 billion in steel and aluminum imports with heavy duties. All told, a reasonable estimate of the deadweight costs on almost $400 billion in exports is around $90 billion. The trade war’s toll doesn’t stop there. Trump’s offensive prompted China to fire back with high tariffs on $110 billion in U.S. exports, chiefly agricultural commodities and steel. Those big taxes have hammered our sales to China. By Fortune’s estimate, the retaliatory duties are subtracting another $20 billion a year from the U.S. economy.

If the administration erased tariffs only on Chinese and global steel and aluminum imports, and China responded by erasing duties on our exports, our economy would swell by roughly $110 billion a year. That’s the $90 billion from eliminating deadweight costs on Chinese goods plus steel and aluminum, plus $20 billion from boosting our farm and steel sales to China. On last year’s GDP of around $21 trillion, the extra $110 billion would add 0.5 points to growth.

But if Trump managed to eliminate the additional tariffs we impose on other nations, mainly for textiles and farm products, and those nations returned the favor by dropping duties on the goods they buy from us, the zero-tariff policy would likely add another tenth of a point or two, adding, say, 0.7% of GDP to our future rate of growth.

That may not sound like much in a year when most banks and research firms predict that national income will plummet by 5% or even more. But it’s a big number. Adding 0.7% to the widespread forecast of 2% that prevailed before the virus struck would have lifted growth by 35%. That cushion could offset one-seventh of a 5% downturn. Or more. The greatest gift to U.S. industry: the signal that Trump is switching from trade warrior to peacemaker. It was the ratcheting up in tariffs during 2018 that took the spark out of the Trump economy. Assurances that protectionism is no longer a core policy could unleash animal spirits that went dormant even before the virus hit.

Of course, Trump is unlikely to reverse a signature policy that has so far proved popular with his base. But who knows? He’s already shown flexibility on the issue. In 2018, he reversed course by removing duties on steel and aluminum imports from Canada that he’d previously imposed. In January, he signed the Phase One deal that lowered tariffs on $112 billion in consumer goods from China and put threatened tariffs on another $160 billion in its exports to the U.S. on hold. Phase One cheered the markets and helped lift the nation’s growth prospects at the start of 2020.

Trump is a maverick who often veers in new directions and dumps once-trusted advisers. “Trump is a dealmaker,” says Franz. “He can show global leadership on trade.” That Trump will do it is a long shot. But going even part way would pay off bigly.

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