美國二季度GDP會跌多慘,？預測結果讓人吃驚
Lee Clifford, Anne Sraders
2020-06-30
數(shù)字相當驚人。
多位經(jīng)濟學家忙著討論經(jīng)濟將如何復蘇,，不過首先還得面對第二季度的小問題,。眾人公認美國GDP跌幅將創(chuàng)下歷史紀錄，而在具體跌多少方面的意見并不統(tǒng)一,。
亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲的GDPNow跟蹤系統(tǒng)是廣受關注的指標之一,，該系統(tǒng)的基礎是數(shù)學模型，可以利用最新發(fā)布的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)來預測未來一個季度的GDP數(shù)據(jù)變動,。截至6月25日星期四,，GDPNow發(fā)布的第二季度GDP預測結果讓人大跌眼鏡，預測下跌46.6%,。
圖片來源：GettyImages
不過,，由于上周五發(fā)布的消費者支出數(shù)據(jù)好于預期，預測結果有所改善,，跌幅變?yōu)?9.5%,。GDPNow下次更新數(shù)據(jù)會于7月1日星期三發(fā)布,。
跟蹤系統(tǒng)還提供了重要的警告。網(wǎng)站上的一條注釋寫道：“GDPNow并非亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲的官方預測,。最好將其當作基于當前季度已掌握數(shù)據(jù)對實際GDP增長的持續(xù)估算,。而且，預測結果僅關注到新冠疫情對GDP原始數(shù)據(jù)和已發(fā)布相關經(jīng)濟報告的影響,，疫情其他方面的影響并未捕捉到,。”
在華爾街其他地方,，對第二季度的預測也大幅下滑,，有些人認為只能算可怕，有些人則認為將迎來大災難,。高盛的最新預測為本季度經(jīng)濟下跌33%左右,，紐約聯(lián)儲的Nowcast（類似的GDP實時跟蹤系統(tǒng)）則上調(diào)了第二季度的預測，認為將下跌16.3%左右,。
亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲和紐約聯(lián)儲調(diào)整后的預測數(shù)據(jù)（以及不斷改善的數(shù)據(jù)）表明,，雖然隧道盡頭還有一線光明，但要走出第二季度的深坑并非易事,。
“好消息是,，經(jīng)濟開始增長了。壞消息是增長的起點是非常深的巨坑,，需要很長時間才能恢復,。”瑞銀全球財富管理的高級經(jīng)濟學家布賴恩?羅斯最近對《財富》雜志說道,。
與此同時，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的首席經(jīng)濟學家吉塔?戈皮納特于上周三在新聞發(fā)布會上表示,，“很明顯,，我們還沒有脫離困境?！盜MF下調(diào)了對美國全年GDP的預測,。戈皮納特指出，“這場危機的嚴重程度前所未有,，復蘇的難度同樣前所未見,。”
不過有一點可以肯定：不管最終公布的GDP數(shù)字是多少,，肯定會創(chuàng)造歷史,。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：Feb
數(shù)字相當驚人。
多位經(jīng)濟學家忙著討論經(jīng)濟將如何復蘇,，不過首先還得面對第二季度的小問題,。眾人公認美國GDP跌幅將創(chuàng)下歷史紀錄,，而在具體跌多少方面的意見并不統(tǒng)一。
亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲的GDPNow跟蹤系統(tǒng)是廣受關注的指標之一,，該系統(tǒng)的基礎是數(shù)學模型,，可以利用最新發(fā)布的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)來預測未來一個季度的GDP數(shù)據(jù)變動。截至6月25日星期四,，GDPNow發(fā)布的第二季度GDP預測結果讓人大跌眼鏡,，預測下跌46.6%。
不過,，由于上周五發(fā)布的消費者支出數(shù)據(jù)好于預期,，預測結果有所改善，跌幅變?yōu)?9.5%,。GDPNow下次更新數(shù)據(jù)會于7月1日星期三發(fā)布,。
跟蹤系統(tǒng)還提供了重要的警告。網(wǎng)站上的一條注釋寫道：“GDPNow并非亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲的官方預測,。最好將其當作基于當前季度已掌握數(shù)據(jù)對實際GDP增長的持續(xù)估算,。而且，預測結果僅關注到新冠疫情對GDP原始數(shù)據(jù)和已發(fā)布相關經(jīng)濟報告的影響,，疫情其他方面的影響并未捕捉到,。”
在華爾街其他地方,，對第二季度的預測也大幅下滑,，有些人認為只能算可怕，有些人則認為將迎來大災難,。高盛的最新預測為本季度經(jīng)濟下跌33%左右,，紐約聯(lián)儲的Nowcast（類似的GDP實時跟蹤系統(tǒng)）則上調(diào)了第二季度的預測，認為將下跌16.3%左右,。
亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲和紐約聯(lián)儲調(diào)整后的預測數(shù)據(jù)（以及不斷改善的數(shù)據(jù)）表明,，雖然隧道盡頭還有一線光明，但要走出第二季度的深坑并非易事,。
“好消息是,，經(jīng)濟開始增長了。壞消息是增長的起點是非常深的巨坑,，需要很長時間才能恢復,。”瑞銀全球財富管理的高級經(jīng)濟學家布賴恩?羅斯最近對《財富》雜志說道,。
與此同時,，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的首席經(jīng)濟學家吉塔?戈皮納特于上周三在新聞發(fā)布會上表示，“很明顯,，我們還沒有脫離困境,?！盜MF下調(diào)了對美國全年GDP的預測。戈皮納特指出,，“這場危機的嚴重程度前所未有,，復蘇的難度同樣前所未見?！?
不過有一點可以肯定：不管最終公布的GDP數(shù)字是多少,，肯定會創(chuàng)造歷史。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：Feb
That’s a big number.
While plenty of economists are busy debating the shape of an eventual economic recovery, there’s still the small matter of the second quarter to get through first. And while everyone agrees U.S. GDP is in for a historic drop, there’s still a wide variety of opinions about just how big that drop will be.
One widely watched gauge is the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, a mathematical model that feeds in new economic data as it is released, and tries to factor in how it will move the overall GDP figure for an upcoming quarter. And as of Thursday June 25, the GDPNow’s estimate for second-quarter GDP was a stunning –46.6%.
However by last Friday that had improved somewhat, to –39.5%, based on better than expected consumer spending data. The next GDPNow update will be released on Wednesday July 1.
The tracker does come with a significant caveat. As a note on the site reads, “GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released.”
Elsewhere on Wall Street, forecasts for the second quarter have careened wildly, ranging from merely terrible to downright catastrophic. Goldman Sachs’s latest prediction is around –33% for the quarter, while the New York Fed’s Nowcast (a similarly real-time GDP tracker) has actually raised its second-quarter estimates to around –16.3%.
While the revised estimates from both the Atlanta Fed and the New York Fed (as well as the improving data) suggest there is light at the end of the tunnel, the second quarter could prove a deep hole to dig out of.
“The good news [is] that we are starting to grow again. The bad news is that we’re starting from an awfully deep hole” that will take a long time to recover from, UBS Global Wealth Management senior economist Brian Rose recently told Fortune.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist Gita Gopinath said at a press briefing on last Wednesday, “We are definitely not out of the woods.” The IMF lowered full-year GDP estimates for the U.S., and Gopinath noted, “This is a crisis like no other and will have a recovery like no other.”
One thing’s for sure: Whatever the actual GDP number is, it will certainly make history.
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