美國外賣三足鼎立格局形成,，配送費會漲嗎,？
Danielle Abril
2020-07-09
據報道,，Uber有意以26.5億美元收購它在美國外賣市場上的主要競爭對手Postmates，這也讓競爭本就十分激烈的外賣市場愈發(fā)白熱化,。雖然收購之后,，市面上的主要競爭少了一家，但消費者關心的問題是,，只有百花齊放才會物美價廉,，寡頭壟斷只會店大欺客——我以后要想點一份披薩、炒粉或者卷餅什么的，是不是就要向平臺支付更高的跑腿費了,？
在三位分析師看來,，從某種角度看，這是很有可能的,。
投行機構D.A. Davidson的分析師湯姆?懷特對《財富》表示：“從中長期來看,，我認為行業(yè)整合將導致外賣食品價格上漲。因為這些企業(yè)也是需要盈利的,?！?/p>
有分析師表示，下一步,，消費者可能會發(fā)現,，各大外賣平臺的促銷活動減少了，或者是配送費用增加了,，這些都會是正?，F象。即便沒有Postmates和Grubhub等平臺被收購的事,，這種改變也很可能依然會發(fā)生,。（上個月，歐洲的Just Eat Takeaway公司同意以73億美元收購Grubhub,。）
投行機構Needham & Co的分析師布拉德·埃里克森也表示：“Uber的態(tài)度很明顯,，促銷已經是過去的事情了。我的觀點是,，隨著這些企業(yè)越做越大,，促銷活動也越來越少?！?/p>
過去幾個月,，由于很多人待在家里躲疫情的緣故，Uber Eats,、DoorDash和Postmates等外賣平臺的業(yè)務迎來了爆炸式增長,。與此同時，美國也有很多城市規(guī)定餐館不得開放堂食,，只能做外賣業(yè)務,。不過盡管各大外賣平臺的業(yè)務增長迅速，這些平臺的虧損額仍然是個天文數字,。這是因為這些平臺前期都采取了賠本賺吆喝的策略,，一邊給予消費者大量折扣，一邊還要花錢補貼騎手,，虧損也就在情理之中了,。
新冠疫情帶火了美國的外賣行業(yè),，不過他們仍然需要削減開支，想方設法朝盈利的方向努力——就跟網約車行業(yè)一樣,，一開始采用的都是賠本引流戰(zhàn)術,。當中小平臺被絞殺殆盡后，就該考慮盈利的事兒了,。
經紀公司AB Bernstein的分析師馬克?施穆利克表示,，從網約車市場的經驗可以推測，外賣市場的配送費很可能也不會搞“一刀切”的提價,，而是會采取“一城一策”的戰(zhàn)略,，由平臺決定在哪些城市先減少促銷活動和提高配送費。在接手了Postmates和它的用戶群之后,，Uber Eats很可能會在一些以前一直難以火起來的市場打開局面,，比如洛杉磯、圣地亞哥,、鳳凰城和拉斯維加斯等城市,。
施穆利克認為：“變化會首先在大城市里出現。這些公司會展開競爭,，而且他們會決定先在哪些城市進行價格調整,。”
懷特指出,，各大外賣平臺可能會在開源和節(jié)流上同時發(fā)力,，既削減營銷成本——比如取消免配送費政策，又提高配送費,，以促進盈利?，F在，美國外賣市場已呈現Grubhub,、Uber Eats和DoorDash三足鼎立的局面,，它們各自都要找到增加收入的方法?？紤]到疫情給餐飲行業(yè)的生存帶來了不小的壓力,，各大平臺不太可能會增加餐館的負擔。這樣一來,，就只能靠消費者的“轉移支付”了。
埃里克森卻并不同意這種看法,。他認為,，促銷活動的減少（最近美國各大外賣平臺的促銷活動已經不那么常見了），再加上需求的增長,，和整合帶來的效率提高,，已經足以讓這些平臺走上盈利的道路了。他還表示，各大外賣平臺都意識到了用戶對價格的敏感性,。在很多情況下,，提高配送費用，就意味著用戶會轉投其他平臺的懷抱,。
埃里克森表示：“這些公司一直在測試消費者的價格敏感性,，所以他們對什么能做、什么不能做有清醒的認識,。當他們談盈利問題是,，他們談的并不是提高消費者的配送費?！?/p>
Uber此前曾嘗試收購過Grubhub,，只不過由于反壟斷因素而失敗了。埃里克森說,，出于同樣的考慮,，Uber很可能會保持低調，不會很快提高價格,。如果反壟斷機構的調查再次啟動,，Uber眼下的這筆收購有可能又會被推遲幾個月。
施穆利克表示,，雖然消費者以后能享受到免配送費的機會可能越來越少了,，但這筆收購對消費者總歸還是有利的。
“消費者可能花了很長時間,，還沒法決定在這些APP上吃什么,。不過選擇越少，大家決定自己想什么就越簡單了,?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W）
譯者：隋遠洙
據報道，Uber有意以26.5億美元收購它在美國外賣市場上的主要競爭對手Postmates,，這也讓競爭本就十分激烈的外賣市場愈發(fā)白熱化,。雖然收購之后，市面上的主要競爭少了一家,，但消費者關心的問題是,，只有百花齊放才會物美價廉，寡頭壟斷只會店大欺客——我以后要想點一份披薩,、炒粉或者卷餅什么的,，是不是就要向平臺支付更高的跑腿費了？
在三位分析師看來,，從某種角度看,，這是很有可能的,。
投行機構D.A. Davidson的分析師湯姆?懷特對《財富》表示：“從中長期來看，我認為行業(yè)整合將導致外賣食品價格上漲,。因為這些企業(yè)也是需要盈利的,。”
有分析師表示,，下一步,，消費者可能會發(fā)現，各大外賣平臺的促銷活動減少了,，或者是配送費用增加了,，這些都會是正常現象,。即便沒有Postmates和Grubhub等平臺被收購的事,，這種改變也很可能依然會發(fā)生。（上個月,，歐洲的Just Eat Takeaway公司同意以73億美元收購Grubhub,。）
投行機構Needham & Co的分析師布拉德·埃里克森也表示：“Uber的態(tài)度很明顯，促銷已經是過去的事情了,。我的觀點是,，隨著這些企業(yè)越做越大，促銷活動也越來越少,?！?/p>
過去幾個月，由于很多人待在家里躲疫情的緣故,，Uber Eats,、DoorDash和Postmates等外賣平臺的業(yè)務迎來了爆炸式增長。與此同時,，美國也有很多城市規(guī)定餐館不得開放堂食,，只能做外賣業(yè)務。不過盡管各大外賣平臺的業(yè)務增長迅速,，這些平臺的虧損額仍然是個天文數字,。這是因為這些平臺前期都采取了賠本賺吆喝的策略，一邊給予消費者大量折扣,，一邊還要花錢補貼騎手,，虧損也就在情理之中了。
新冠疫情帶火了美國的外賣行業(yè),，不過他們仍然需要削減開支,，想方設法朝盈利的方向努力——就跟網約車行業(yè)一樣，一開始采用的都是賠本引流戰(zhàn)術,。當中小平臺被絞殺殆盡后,，就該考慮盈利的事兒了。
經紀公司AB Bernstein的分析師馬克?施穆利克表示,，從網約車市場的經驗可以推測,，外賣市場的配送費很可能也不會搞“一刀切”的提價，而是會采取“一城一策”的戰(zhàn)略,，由平臺決定在哪些城市先減少促銷活動和提高配送費,。在接手了Postmates和它的用戶群之后，Uber Eats很可能會在一些以前一直難以火起來的市場打開局面,，比如洛杉磯,、圣地亞哥、鳳凰城和拉斯維加斯等城市,。
施穆利克認為：“變化會首先在大城市里出現,。這些公司會展開競爭，而且他們會決定先在哪些城市進行價格調整,?！?/p>
懷特指出，各大外賣平臺可能會在開源和節(jié)流上同時發(fā)力,，既削減營銷成本——比如取消免配送費政策,，又提高配送費，以促進盈利?，F在,，美國外賣市場已呈現Grubhub、Uber Eats和DoorDash三足鼎立的局面,，它們各自都要找到增加收入的方法,。考慮到疫情給餐飲行業(yè)的生存帶來了不小的壓力,，各大平臺不太可能會增加餐館的負擔,。這樣一來，就只能靠消費者的“轉移支付”了,。
埃里克森卻并不同意這種看法,。他認為，促銷活動的減少（最近美國各大外賣平臺的促銷活動已經不那么常見了）,，再加上需求的增長,，和整合帶來的效率提高，已經足以讓這些平臺走上盈利的道路了,。他還表示,，各大外賣平臺都意識到了用戶對價格的敏感性。在很多情況下,，提高配送費用,，就意味著用戶會轉投其他平臺的懷抱,。
埃里克森表示：“這些公司一直在測試消費者的價格敏感性，所以他們對什么能做,、什么不能做有清醒的認識,。當他們談盈利問題是，他們談的并不是提高消費者的配送費,?！?/p>
Uber此前曾嘗試收購過Grubhub，只不過由于反壟斷因素而失敗了,。埃里克森說,，出于同樣的考慮，Uber很可能會保持低調,，不會很快提高價格,。如果反壟斷機構的調查再次啟動，Uber眼下的這筆收購有可能又會被推遲幾個月,。
施穆利克表示,，雖然消費者以后能享受到免配送費的機會可能越來越少了，但這筆收購對消費者總歸還是有利的,。
“消費者可能花了很長時間,，還沒法決定在這些APP上吃什么。不過選擇越少,，大家決定自己想什么就越簡單了,。”（財富中文網）
譯者：隋遠洙
Uber’s planned $2.65 billion acquisition of rival Postmates is turning up the heat in an already hot food-delivery market. But as the number of competitors shrinks, one question remains: Will fewer delivery services result in higher prices for people who want their pizza, pad thai, and tacos delivered to their homes?
The answer, according to three analysts is: probably, in some form.
“Over the intermediate and long term I would expect that consolidation will lead to higher prices for diners,” Tom White, analyst for investment banking firm D.A. Davidson, told Fortune. “These businesses need to get profitable.”
Analysts said consumers will likely see either fewer promotions for free delivery or an increase in delivery fees in the future. But they said such changes would have likely occurred even without the recent proposed acquisitions of Postmates and Grubhub, which Europe’s Just Eat Takeaway agreed to buy for $7.3 billion last month.
“Uber has been pretty clear that [promotions are] a thing of the past,” said Brad Erickson, an analyst at investment banking firm Needham & Co. “My view is, as these businesses get bigger, it’ll happen less and less.”
Food delivery companies like Uber Eats, DoorDash, and Postmates have experienced explosive growth in the past few months, as more people stayed home because of the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, more restaurants turned to the services following city mandates that allowed eateries to fulfill only takeout and delivery orders, analysts said. But the rapidly growing food delivery services are still suffering from big losses, mainly the result of steep diner discounts and big driver incentives.
Though the coronavirus has altered the outlook for these services, they’re still expected to crack down on expenses and start working toward profitability—following a similar approach to ride-sharing services.
Mark Shmulik, analyst at brokerage firm AB Bernstein, said that as seen with ride-sharing, price changes will likely happen city by city, as food delivery services determine where they can pull back on promotions or raise delivery fees. Acquiring Postmates and its clientele will likely help Uber Eats in places—including Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, and Las Vegas—where it has historically struggled to gain popularity.
“This is going to play out on a metro-market level,” Shmulik said. “These companies are going to battle it out, and they’re going to pick and choose which cities’ [prices]” will change.
Food delivery services will likely have to both cut some marketing costs, such as free delivery promotions, and raise delivery fee prices to reach profitability, White said. With three large players, Grubhub, Uber Eats, and DoorDash, in competition, each will have to find some way to increase revenue. Given the economic pressures the coronavirus has placed on restaurants, White said, the services likely won’t increase fees for eateries. Therefore, consumers will likely have to pay more.
But Erickson disagreed. He said fewer promotions, which already aren’t as common these days, combined with increasing efficiency fueled by growing demand and consolidation will be enough to get these companies on the path to profitability. He added that food delivery services are aware of their customers’ price sensitivity, and that driving up delivery fees in a lot of cases means driving away customers.
“[The companies] test that all the time, so they have a keen sense of what they can do and can’t do,” Erickson said. “When they talk about getting to profitability, it’s not about raising the [delivery fee] for consumers.”
Because Uber’s proposed acquisition of Grubhub reportedly fell apart owing to antitrust concerns, Erickson said Uber will likely lie low and not raise prices anytime soon. An antitrust investigation could postpone the deal for several months, at least.
At the end of the day, though consumers may have less opportunities for free delivery, the acquisition works in their favor, said Shmulik.
“Consumers probably spend way too much time figuring out what to eat on these apps,” he said. “The fewer there are, the simpler it is to figure out what we want to eat.”
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