過去一年,,科技股飛速大幅上漲,。在以史上最快的速度跌入回調(diào)區(qū)間后,科技股最近已經(jīng)走出了陰霾,,但華爾街的許多分析師一直認(rèn)為,,科技股的表現(xiàn)可能是又一場(chǎng)科技泡沫,類似于2000年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫,。
事實(shí)是否如此,?我們是否正在經(jīng)歷一場(chǎng)似曾相識(shí)的股市泡沫?
由聯(lián)博集團(tuán)(AllianceBernstein)的托尼?薩克納吉領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的分析師在最近的一篇研究報(bào)告中寫道,,今天科技股的表現(xiàn)與2000年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫相比,,確實(shí)有“大量”相似之處。但兩者之間也有許多重要的區(qū)別,。
表現(xiàn)
首先,,聯(lián)博集團(tuán)指出,科技股的表現(xiàn)已經(jīng)連續(xù)八年“持續(xù)”跑贏大盤,。前12家大型科技公司(如蘋果(Apple),、微軟(Microsoft)、特斯拉(Tesla)等)的股票去年的平均漲幅為170%,而在2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅前一年,,這些公司的平均漲幅為146%,。分析師研究互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅前六個(gè)月的市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)后發(fā)現(xiàn),在這段時(shí)間科技股上漲了83%(相比之下,,過去六個(gè)月,,在9月初的回調(diào)之前,科技股上漲了79%),,這表明科技股的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)出類似的暴漲趨勢(shì),。
權(quán)重
科技股一直有很高的權(quán)重,但當(dāng)投資者抬高股價(jià)時(shí),,科技股的權(quán)重會(huì)顯著提高,。聯(lián)博的分析師指出,前10大科技股在標(biāo)普指數(shù)總市值中的占比達(dá)到29%(高于2000年的23%),。
散戶投資者
當(dāng)然,,Robinhood等免費(fèi)交易平臺(tái)和允許持有零散股的規(guī)定使散戶投資活動(dòng)大幅增加。分析師寫道,,這種情況“類似于1998年至2000年的情況,。當(dāng)時(shí)的在線交易量也曾經(jīng)大幅增加?!甭?lián)博的分析師指出,,現(xiàn)在,“與泡沫有關(guān)的狂熱跡象也正在顯現(xiàn)”,,尤其是蘋果和特斯拉等高價(jià)股票,。這兩家公司最近都進(jìn)行了分股。
但現(xiàn)在與2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫之間有一個(gè)重要的區(qū)別是,,現(xiàn)在的估值實(shí)際上并不像2000年時(shí)的科技股一樣極端,。這也是聯(lián)博集團(tuán)的分析師依舊推薦科技股(持股觀望)的原因。
事實(shí)上,,薩克納吉領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的分析師指出:“當(dāng)前科技股暴漲的量級(jí)和估值依舊遠(yuǎn)低于2000年的泡沫水平”,,因?yàn)椤霸诨ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)泡沫期間,科技股的股價(jià)上漲更加突出,?!狈治鰩煴硎荆环矫?,以科技股為主的納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)在2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅前7年,,每年上漲43%(最后一年的漲幅高達(dá)驚人的288%),但按照年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率(CAGR)計(jì)算,,2020年之前的7年,,納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)每年的平均漲幅為23%,。聯(lián)博集團(tuán)的分析師表示,雖然“估值水平極高,,但[它們]并沒有得到泡沫的最高峰,。”
分析師表示,,按絕對(duì)值計(jì)算,,科技股在2000年3月交易的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為45.8倍,而自8月31日起,,科技股在2020年9月交易的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為26.9倍(同等權(quán)重),。同樣,,市值加權(quán)科技股指數(shù)在2000年3月交易的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為53倍,,而現(xiàn)在只有34倍。另外,,分析師指出,,股價(jià)與自由現(xiàn)金流估值“更加離譜,2000年為118倍,,而今天只有31倍,。
美國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)研究與分析中心(CFRA Research)的山姆?斯托瓦爾告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,當(dāng)前科技股的表現(xiàn)不同于2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫的一個(gè)原因是“這些公司都有實(shí)際收入和盈利,,它們的交易并非是源自非理性的行為或者預(yù)期,。”他說,,從這個(gè)意義上來說,,2000年與2020年不能進(jìn)行“同類對(duì)比”。
但按照個(gè)別指標(biāo)衡量,,科技股的估值沒有達(dá)到與2000年一樣的高度,,這絕不意味著分析師認(rèn)為科技股是值得投資的便宜貨。
聯(lián)博集團(tuán)的分析師寫道:“科技股的交易價(jià)格依舊處于自互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅以來的最高水平,。而且我們認(rèn)為,,2021年科技行業(yè)的收益增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將顯著落后于整個(gè)市場(chǎng),這意味著相對(duì)而言,,科技股基于2021年收益計(jì)算的估值會(huì)顯著升高,。”
科技股經(jīng)歷過一輪暴漲,,但它們?nèi)缃袼幍母呶豢赡芑A(chǔ)不穩(wěn),,尤其是如果科技公司的收益乏善可陳,投資者會(huì)重新把目光投向今年表現(xiàn)落后于大盤的周期性價(jià)值股,。
但預(yù)計(jì)居家辦公和依賴科技的趨勢(shì)不會(huì)很快消失,。根據(jù)這種預(yù)期(更不要說“不要與美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)抗”的觀點(diǎn)),看好科技股的投資者會(huì)繼續(xù)堅(jiān)持自己的立場(chǎng)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
過去一年,,科技股飛速大幅上漲,。在以史上最快的速度跌入回調(diào)區(qū)間后,科技股最近已經(jīng)走出了陰霾,,但華爾街的許多分析師一直認(rèn)為,,科技股的表現(xiàn)可能是又一場(chǎng)科技泡沫,類似于2000年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫,。
事實(shí)是否如此,?我們是否正在經(jīng)歷一場(chǎng)似曾相識(shí)的股市泡沫?
由聯(lián)博集團(tuán)(AllianceBernstein)的托尼?薩克納吉領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的分析師在最近的一篇研究報(bào)告中寫道,,今天科技股的表現(xiàn)與2000年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫相比,,確實(shí)有“大量”相似之處。但兩者之間也有許多重要的區(qū)別,。
表現(xiàn)
首先,,聯(lián)博集團(tuán)指出,科技股的表現(xiàn)已經(jīng)連續(xù)八年“持續(xù)”跑贏大盤,。前12家大型科技公司(如蘋果(Apple),、微軟(Microsoft)、特斯拉(Tesla)等)的股票去年的平均漲幅為170%,,而在2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅前一年,,這些公司的平均漲幅為146%。分析師研究互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅前六個(gè)月的市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)后發(fā)現(xiàn),,在這段時(shí)間科技股上漲了83%(相比之下,,過去六個(gè)月,在9月初的回調(diào)之前,,科技股上漲了79%),,這表明科技股的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)出類似的暴漲趨勢(shì)。
權(quán)重
科技股一直有很高的權(quán)重,,但當(dāng)投資者抬高股價(jià)時(shí),,科技股的權(quán)重會(huì)顯著提高。聯(lián)博的分析師指出,,前10大科技股在標(biāo)普指數(shù)總市值中的占比達(dá)到29%(高于2000年的23%),。
散戶投資者
當(dāng)然,Robinhood等免費(fèi)交易平臺(tái)和允許持有零散股的規(guī)定使散戶投資活動(dòng)大幅增加,。分析師寫道,,這種情況“類似于1998年至2000年的情況。當(dāng)時(shí)的在線交易量也曾經(jīng)大幅增加,?!甭?lián)博的分析師指出,,現(xiàn)在,“與泡沫有關(guān)的狂熱跡象也正在顯現(xiàn)”,,尤其是蘋果和特斯拉等高價(jià)股票,。這兩家公司最近都進(jìn)行了分股。
但現(xiàn)在與2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫之間有一個(gè)重要的區(qū)別是,,現(xiàn)在的估值實(shí)際上并不像2000年時(shí)的科技股一樣極端,。這也是聯(lián)博集團(tuán)的分析師依舊推薦科技股(持股觀望)的原因。
事實(shí)上,,薩克納吉領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的分析師指出:“當(dāng)前科技股暴漲的量級(jí)和估值依舊遠(yuǎn)低于2000年的泡沫水平”,,因?yàn)椤霸诨ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)泡沫期間,科技股的股價(jià)上漲更加突出,?!狈治鰩煴硎荆环矫?,以科技股為主的納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)在2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅前7年,,每年上漲43%(最后一年的漲幅高達(dá)驚人的288%),,但按照年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率(CAGR)計(jì)算,,2020年之前的7年,納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)每年的平均漲幅為23%,。聯(lián)博集團(tuán)的分析師表示,,雖然“估值水平極高,但[它們]并沒有得到泡沫的最高峰,?!?/p>
分析師表示,按絕對(duì)值計(jì)算,,科技股在2000年3月交易的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為45.8倍,,而自8月31日起,科技股在2020年9月交易的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為26.9倍(同等權(quán)重),。同樣,,市值加權(quán)科技股指數(shù)在2000年3月交易的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為53倍,而現(xiàn)在只有34倍,。另外,,分析師指出,股價(jià)與自由現(xiàn)金流估值“更加離譜,,2000年為118倍,,而今天只有31倍。
美國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)研究與分析中心(CFRA Research)的山姆?斯托瓦爾告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,,當(dāng)前科技股的表現(xiàn)不同于2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫的一個(gè)原因是“這些公司都有實(shí)際收入和盈利,,它們的交易并非是源自非理性的行為或者預(yù)期,。”他說,,從這個(gè)意義上來說,,2000年與2020年不能進(jìn)行“同類對(duì)比”。
但按照個(gè)別指標(biāo)衡量,,科技股的估值沒有達(dá)到與2000年一樣的高度,,這絕不意味著分析師認(rèn)為科技股是值得投資的便宜貨。
聯(lián)博集團(tuán)的分析師寫道:“科技股的交易價(jià)格依舊處于自互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅以來的最高水平,。而且我們認(rèn)為,,2021年科技行業(yè)的收益增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將顯著落后于整個(gè)市場(chǎng),這意味著相對(duì)而言,,科技股基于2021年收益計(jì)算的估值會(huì)顯著升高,。”
科技股經(jīng)歷過一輪暴漲,,但它們?nèi)缃袼幍母呶豢赡芑A(chǔ)不穩(wěn),,尤其是如果科技公司的收益乏善可陳,投資者會(huì)重新把目光投向今年表現(xiàn)落后于大盤的周期性價(jià)值股,。
但預(yù)計(jì)居家辦公和依賴科技的趨勢(shì)不會(huì)很快消失,。根據(jù)這種預(yù)期(更不要說“不要與美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)抗”的觀點(diǎn)),看好科技股的投資者會(huì)繼續(xù)堅(jiān)持自己的立場(chǎng),。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Tech stocks have risen so far and fast in the past year, that even as they recently shrugged off a record-fast dive into correction territory, many on the Street have been positing this may be another tech bubble, akin to 2000.
So, is that the case? Are we having stock bubble déjà vu?
To be sure, there are "myriad" ways tech stocks today resemble the bubble in 2000, analysts led by Toni Sacconaghi at firm AllianceBernstein wrote in a recent research note. But there are a few important differences, too.
Performance
For starters, the firm notes tech stocks have been "sustained" outperformers of the overall market for eight consecutive years. The top 12 mega tech names (think Apple, Microsoft, Tesla) have risen 170% on average in the past year, versus 146% in the year before the 2000 crash. The analysts also looked at the six months preceding the Dot Com crash and found stocks soared 83% in that time (for comparison, tech stocks were up 79% in the last six months, before the early September correction), showing similar run-ups in tech stock prices.
Weighting
Tech always carries a heavy weight, but that increases markedly when investors bid shares up. The top 10 tech stocks make up 29% of the S&P's total market cap (higher than 2000's 23%), analysts at the firm point out.
Retail investors
And, of course, the massive increase in retail investor activity spurred on by free trading platforms like Robinhood and fractional share ownership is elevated, "akin to what happened in 1998-2000," the analysts write, when "online trading proliferated." Now, analysts at the firm note "signs of mania associated with a bubble are also appearing," especially in high fliers like Apple and Tesla who both recently performed stock splits.
Yet there's one big difference between now and 2000 that has analysts at AllianceBernstein still recommending tech (as a market weight): Valuations now are actually not quite as extreme as in 2000.
In fact, analysts led by Sacconaghi note "the magnitude of the tech run-up and valuations today remain notably below 2000 bubble levels," as "tech appreciation was much more pronounced in the bubble." For one, the firm notes the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated 43% per year in the seven years before the 2000 tech bubble burst (and a whopping 288% in the final year), whereas the index has appreciated an average of 23% per year over the last seven years up until 2020, via compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Analysts at AllianceBernstein note that while "valuations are very elevated, [they are] nowhere near the levels of the peak of the bubble."
The firm's analysis shows that, on an absolute basis, tech stocks in 2000 were trading at 45.8 times forward price-to-earnings in March 2000, whereas tech in September 2020 is trading at roughly 26.9 times forward earnings (equal weighted), as of Aug. 31. Meanwhile, the cap weighted tech index traded at 53 times forward earnings back in March 2000 compared to 34 times forward earnings today, while price-to-free cash flow valuations were "even more extreme," the firm notes, at 118 times in 2000 versus 31 times today.
One reason for that is unlike in 2000, "these companies actually have revenues and earnings, they're not just trading on fumes or expectations," CFRA Research's Sam Stovall tells Fortune. In that sense, comparing 2000 to 2020 isn't "apples to apples," he says.
But just because valuations aren't as heady based on some measures as in 2000 doesn't mean analysts think tech is a steal by any means.
"Tech stocks are still trading at their highest levels since the bubble and we note that tech sector earnings growth is expected to significantly lag the broader market in 2021—meaning valuations based on 2021 earnings are considerably higher for tech on a relative basis," analysts at AllianceBernstein wrote.
And with tech stocks having seen a torrid run-up, their current supremacy may be on shaky ground—especially if earnings in tech prove lackluster, beckoning investors back to those cyclical and value stocks that have lagged this year.
Yet in light of the expectations that work from home and tech-dependent trends won't be disappearing anytime soon (not to mention the Don't Fight the Fed argument), it appears tech bulls are continuing to stand their ground.