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6圖了解特朗普?qǐng)?zhí)政期間,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)如何

Lance Lambert
2020-10-12

在新冠肺炎疫情所導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)爆發(fā)之前,,特朗普的成績(jī)可謂卓然,。

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圖片來(lái)源:ILLUSTRATION BY JAMIE CULLEN

在2016年美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選期間,,唐納德·特朗普曾經(jīng)承諾,會(huì)讓美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)一片繁榮,。

但是他做到了嗎,?

新冠肺炎疫情給美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了史上最沉重的打擊,但在疫情爆發(fā)之前,,特朗普掌控著這一有史以來(lái)最強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)體,。目前,情況正在好轉(zhuǎn),,不過(guò)仍然有超過(guò)1000萬(wàn)的美國(guó)人失業(yè)——重振經(jīng)濟(jì)依舊任重道遠(yuǎn),。

在特朗普的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)如何,?《財(cái)富》雜志將其與前幾任總統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了對(duì)比,。大體上,我們采用年化或年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率來(lái)呈現(xiàn)這些經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)——因?yàn)榭紤]到有些總統(tǒng)任期八年,,有些任期四年,,而特朗普目前的任期是44個(gè)月,這樣就可以對(duì)他們進(jìn)行更公平的比較,。

我們通過(guò)下列指標(biāo)來(lái)觀測(cè)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的表現(xiàn):失業(yè)率,、貿(mào)易逆差、就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)率,、制造業(yè)的就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)率,、收入增長(zhǎng)率和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的收益率。

以下是我們的發(fā)現(xiàn),。

失業(yè)率(經(jīng)季節(jié)調(diào)整)

特朗普剛上任時(shí),,美國(guó)的失業(yè)率為4.7%。到2020年2月,,這一數(shù)字降至3.5%——這是50年來(lái)的最低點(diǎn),。

然而此后,疫情就爆發(fā)了,。今年4月,,失業(yè)率飆升至14.7%,達(dá)到1940年以來(lái)的最高水平,。

盡管在此之后,,經(jīng)濟(jì)從衰退轉(zhuǎn)向復(fù)蘇——截至9月,失業(yè)率降至7.9%——但仍然遠(yuǎn)高于特朗普上任時(shí)的水平,。如果連任失敗,,特朗普很可能會(huì)和兩位布什總統(tǒng)一樣,在離開(kāi)白宮時(shí),,國(guó)內(nèi)的失業(yè)率比上任時(shí)要高,。與此同時(shí),,奧巴馬總統(tǒng)在經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條時(shí)期上任,但美國(guó)的失業(yè)率卻在其任期內(nèi)下降:在他上任時(shí),,失業(yè)率為7.8%,,而等到他離職時(shí),已經(jīng)降至4.7%,。

特朗普還有一線希望嗎,?然而要讓美國(guó)的失業(yè)率再次降至特朗普在任期間3.5%的最低點(diǎn),可能需要數(shù)十年的時(shí)間,??v觀歷史,除了在經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)擴(kuò)張時(shí)期,,美國(guó)的失業(yè)率很少降至5%以下,。截至今年年底,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)持續(xù)了10年的擴(kuò)張態(tài)勢(shì)將要告一段落,,而這也是美國(guó)歷史上最長(zhǎng)的擴(kuò)張期,。

美國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差

在2016年的大選中,特朗普曾經(jīng)向選民承諾,,將縮小或消除美國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差,。他在任職總統(tǒng)期間,又與中國(guó)進(jìn)行了貿(mào)易戰(zhàn),,并向眾多盟國(guó)施加貿(mào)易壓力,。疫情爆發(fā)前,在特朗普的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,,美國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差有所改善——從他上任時(shí)的429億美元降至今年2月的370億美元,。

但在疫情期間,進(jìn)口量激增(圖表中的斷崖式暴跌趨勢(shì)表明貿(mào)易逆差進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大),。 8月,,美國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差額達(dá)到672億美元,創(chuàng)下14年來(lái)的新高,。

歷屆總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)的就業(yè)年增長(zhǎng)率

在奧巴馬擔(dān)任總統(tǒng)的八年中,,美國(guó)的就業(yè)率保持著1%的年增長(zhǎng)率。在特朗普領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,,這個(gè)增長(zhǎng)率仍然一直在攀升:截至2020年2月,,已達(dá)1.5%。

但這都是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在今年春天之前的情況了——自那以后,,就業(yè)崗位銳減了2220萬(wàn)個(gè)。到4月,,美國(guó)的就業(yè)人數(shù)已經(jīng)從1.525億下降到1.303億,,回到了1999年的水平,。之后,盡管已經(jīng)恢復(fù)了1140萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位,,但總體來(lái)看,,特朗普任職期間的就業(yè)年增長(zhǎng)率為負(fù),即–0.7%,。

如果特朗普連任失敗,,并且到明年1月,美國(guó)仍然沒(méi)有增加或至少恢復(fù)390萬(wàn)個(gè)就業(yè)崗位,,他將成為自二戰(zhàn)以來(lái),,首位在任期中出現(xiàn)國(guó)內(nèi)就業(yè)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)的總統(tǒng)。

歷屆總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)的制造業(yè)崗位年化增長(zhǎng)率

早在就職前,,特朗普就曾經(jīng)承諾過(guò)要結(jié)束美國(guó)的“工廠外包”時(shí)代,,并宣稱要幫助美國(guó)完成制造業(yè)復(fù)興。

這一方面,,特朗普的成績(jī)其實(shí)是有目共睹的,,雖然談不上復(fù)興,但在特朗普上任后的頭三年,,制造業(yè)領(lǐng)域內(nèi)就業(yè)崗位確有增加,,截至今年2月,制造業(yè)的就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)折合成年率已經(jīng)達(dá)到1.2%,。但在疫情爆發(fā)的同時(shí),,美國(guó)制造業(yè)迅速蒸發(fā)了近140萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位,抹去了特朗普?qǐng)?zhí)政期間的所有辛勞成果,。目前美國(guó)已經(jīng)恢復(fù)71.6萬(wàn)個(gè)制造業(yè)崗位,,但其年增長(zhǎng)率同樣降為了負(fù)數(shù),低至-0.4%.

好消息是在9月單月,,美國(guó)就恢復(fù)了6.6萬(wàn)個(gè)制造業(yè)崗位,,這樣平均下來(lái),特朗普上任后的制造業(yè)崗位縮減幅度并不大,,僅僅在16.4萬(wàn)個(gè)左右,。如果這種復(fù)蘇速度能夠持續(xù)下去,特朗普有望在明年1月底之前將該項(xiàng)數(shù)值拉回正值,。如此一來(lái),,他就可以成為自比爾·克林頓以來(lái)第一位幫助制造業(yè)完成就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的總統(tǒng)。

從圖表中可以看到,,無(wú)論是里根,、布什父子、還是奧巴馬在位期間,他們?nèi)纹趦?nèi)的制造業(yè)崗位增長(zhǎng)率均為負(fù)值,。

歷屆總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)的家庭收入年化增長(zhǎng)率

根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)法則,,一旦一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的就業(yè)率達(dá)到飽和,企業(yè)則必須開(kāi)始提高工資來(lái)留住人心,。這正是特朗普?qǐng)?zhí)政期間所發(fā)生的現(xiàn)象,,尤其在是他任期內(nèi)的最后三年,美國(guó)可以說(shuō)是經(jīng)歷了史上最大規(guī)模的經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張,。另外,,早在他執(zhí)政的第一、第二年,,美國(guó)的家庭收入年化增長(zhǎng)率就已經(jīng)上升了3.8%,,從最初的63,761美元增長(zhǎng)到了68,703美元。

特朗普對(duì)于美國(guó)家庭收入的貢獻(xiàn)明顯高于他的前任們,,這也是他完成得最優(yōu)秀的一項(xiàng)指標(biāo),。哪怕是奧巴馬在任內(nèi)的八年中,美國(guó)家庭收入折合成年率也只增長(zhǎng)了0.9%,,從上任前的59,458元美漲至了卸任時(shí)的63,761美元,。

值得注意的是,2020年的美國(guó)家庭平均收入數(shù)據(jù)尚未公布,,最終結(jié)果很可能受到疫情影響而產(chǎn)生衰退,。但根據(jù)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局公布的人均收入數(shù)據(jù),美國(guó)人的收入并沒(méi)有大幅下降,。事實(shí)上,,8月的美國(guó)人均收入還同比增長(zhǎng)了3.3%。在特朗普?qǐng)?zhí)政期間,,所有社會(huì)群體的收入均有所增長(zhǎng),。獲益于美國(guó)各城市居民要求“增加基本工資”的呼吁聲,其中低收入人群的收入增長(zhǎng)最快,。

歷屆總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)的標(biāo)普500指數(shù)年化增長(zhǎng)率

據(jù)《財(cái)富》雜志統(tǒng)計(jì),,自特朗普任職總統(tǒng)以來(lái),他一共在推特上發(fā)了200余次有關(guān)股市及401K養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的內(nèi)容,??梢?jiàn)股市表現(xiàn)對(duì)特朗普而言相當(dāng)重要。然而,,在特朗普掌舵期間,,股市的漲幅并未超越他的前任們。

在特朗普第一個(gè)任期內(nèi),,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)年化增長(zhǎng)率為11.6%,,該數(shù)值高于里根(10.2%),、老布什(10.9%)、小布什(-12%),,但低于克林頓時(shí)期的15.2%及奧巴馬時(shí)期的13.8%,。

綜上分析,最終的結(jié)論是什么呢,?

在疫情所導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)爆發(fā)之前,其實(shí)特朗普的成績(jī)可謂卓然,。在上述6項(xiàng)核心指標(biāo)(失業(yè)率,、貿(mào)易赤字、就業(yè)增長(zhǎng),、制造業(yè)崗位增長(zhǎng),、家庭收入增長(zhǎng)、股市漲幅)中,,特朗普已經(jīng)有4項(xiàng)領(lǐng)先于奧巴馬,。但現(xiàn)在,除了家庭收入指標(biāo)以外,,特朗普其余5項(xiàng)指標(biāo)均已一落千丈,,再次重新落后。不過(guò),,在特朗普第一個(gè)任期結(jié)束之前,,其在制造業(yè)領(lǐng)域的政績(jī)有望出現(xiàn)回轉(zhuǎn),重新超過(guò)奧巴馬,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳聰聰,、陳怡軒

在2016年美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選期間,唐納德·特朗普曾經(jīng)承諾,,會(huì)讓美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)一片繁榮,。

但是他做到了嗎?

新冠肺炎疫情給美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了史上最沉重的打擊,,但在疫情爆發(fā)之前,,特朗普掌控著這一有史以來(lái)最強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。目前,,情況正在好轉(zhuǎn),,不過(guò)仍然有超過(guò)1000萬(wàn)的美國(guó)人失業(yè)——重振經(jīng)濟(jì)依舊任重道遠(yuǎn)。

在特朗普的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)如何,?《財(cái)富》雜志將其與前幾任總統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了對(duì)比。大體上,,我們采用年化或年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率來(lái)呈現(xiàn)這些經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)——因?yàn)榭紤]到有些總統(tǒng)任期八年,,有些任期四年,,而特朗普目前的任期是44個(gè)月,這樣就可以對(duì)他們進(jìn)行更公平的比較,。

我們通過(guò)下列指標(biāo)來(lái)觀測(cè)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的表現(xiàn):失業(yè)率,、貿(mào)易逆差、就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)率,、制造業(yè)的就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)率,、收入增長(zhǎng)率和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的收益率。

以下是我們的發(fā)現(xiàn),。

特朗普剛上任時(shí),,美國(guó)的失業(yè)率為4.7%。到2020年2月,,這一數(shù)字降至3.5%——這是50年來(lái)的最低點(diǎn),。

然而此后,疫情就爆發(fā)了,。今年4月,,失業(yè)率飆升至14.7%,達(dá)到1940年以來(lái)的最高水平,。

盡管在此之后,,經(jīng)濟(jì)從衰退轉(zhuǎn)向復(fù)蘇——截至9月,失業(yè)率降至7.9%——但仍然遠(yuǎn)高于特朗普上任時(shí)的水平,。如果連任失敗,,特朗普很可能會(huì)和兩位布什總統(tǒng)一樣,在離開(kāi)白宮時(shí),,國(guó)內(nèi)的失業(yè)率比上任時(shí)要高,。與此同時(shí),奧巴馬總統(tǒng)在經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條時(shí)期上任,,但美國(guó)的失業(yè)率卻在其任期內(nèi)下降:在他上任時(shí),,失業(yè)率為7.8%,而等到他離職時(shí),,已經(jīng)降至4.7%,。

特朗普還有一線希望嗎?然而要讓美國(guó)的失業(yè)率再次降至特朗普在任期間3.5%的最低點(diǎn),,可能需要數(shù)十年的時(shí)間,。縱觀歷史,,除了在經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)擴(kuò)張時(shí)期,,美國(guó)的失業(yè)率很少降至5%以下。截至今年年底,,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)持續(xù)了10年的擴(kuò)張態(tài)勢(shì)將要告一段落,,而這也是美國(guó)歷史上最長(zhǎng)的擴(kuò)張期,。

在2016年的大選中,特朗普曾經(jīng)向選民承諾,,將縮小或消除美國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差,。他在任職總統(tǒng)期間,又與中國(guó)進(jìn)行了貿(mào)易戰(zhàn),,并向眾多盟國(guó)施加貿(mào)易壓力,。疫情爆發(fā)前,在特朗普的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,,美國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差有所改善——從他上任時(shí)的429億美元降至今年2月的370億美元,。

但在疫情期間,進(jìn)口量激增(圖表中的斷崖式暴跌趨勢(shì)表明貿(mào)易逆差進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大),。 8月,美國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差額達(dá)到672億美元,,創(chuàng)下14年來(lái)的新高,。

在奧巴馬擔(dān)任總統(tǒng)的八年中,美國(guó)的就業(yè)率保持著1%的年增長(zhǎng)率,。在特朗普領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,,這個(gè)增長(zhǎng)率仍然一直在攀升:截至2020年2月,已達(dá)1.5%,。

但這都是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在今年春天之前的情況了——自那以后,,就業(yè)崗位銳減了2220萬(wàn)個(gè)。到4月,,美國(guó)的就業(yè)人數(shù)已經(jīng)從1.525億下降到1.303億,,回到了1999年的水平。之后,,盡管已經(jīng)恢復(fù)了1140萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位,,但總體來(lái)看,特朗普任職期間的就業(yè)年增長(zhǎng)率為負(fù),,即–0.7%,。

如果特朗普連任失敗,并且到明年1月,,美國(guó)仍然沒(méi)有增加或至少恢復(fù)390萬(wàn)個(gè)就業(yè)崗位,,他將成為自二戰(zhàn)以來(lái),首位在任期中出現(xiàn)國(guó)內(nèi)就業(yè)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)的總統(tǒng),。

早在就職前,,特朗普就曾經(jīng)承諾過(guò)要結(jié)束美國(guó)的“工廠外包”時(shí)代,并宣稱要幫助美國(guó)完成制造業(yè)復(fù)興,。

這一方面,,特朗普的成績(jī)其實(shí)是有目共睹的,,雖然談不上復(fù)興,但在特朗普上任后的頭三年,,制造業(yè)領(lǐng)域內(nèi)就業(yè)崗位確有增加,,截至今年2月,制造業(yè)的就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)折合成年率已經(jīng)達(dá)到1.2%,。但在疫情爆發(fā)的同時(shí),,美國(guó)制造業(yè)迅速蒸發(fā)了近140萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位,抹去了特朗普?qǐng)?zhí)政期間的所有辛勞成果,。目前美國(guó)已經(jīng)恢復(fù)71.6萬(wàn)個(gè)制造業(yè)崗位,,但其年增長(zhǎng)率同樣降為了負(fù)數(shù),低至-0.4%.

好消息是在9月單月,,美國(guó)就恢復(fù)了6.6萬(wàn)個(gè)制造業(yè)崗位,,這樣平均下來(lái),特朗普上任后的制造業(yè)崗位縮減幅度并不大,,僅僅在16.4萬(wàn)個(gè)左右,。如果這種復(fù)蘇速度能夠持續(xù)下去,特朗普有望在明年1月底之前將該項(xiàng)數(shù)值拉回正值,。如此一來(lái),,他就可以成為自比爾·克林頓以來(lái)第一位幫助制造業(yè)完成就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的總統(tǒng)。

從圖表中可以看到,,無(wú)論是里根,、布什父子、還是奧巴馬在位期間,,他們?nèi)纹趦?nèi)的制造業(yè)崗位增長(zhǎng)率均為負(fù)值,。

根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)法則,一旦一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的就業(yè)率達(dá)到飽和,,企業(yè)則必須開(kāi)始提高工資來(lái)留住人心,。這正是特朗普?qǐng)?zhí)政期間所發(fā)生的現(xiàn)象,尤其在是他任期內(nèi)的最后三年,,美國(guó)可以說(shuō)是經(jīng)歷了史上最大規(guī)模的經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張,。另外,早在他執(zhí)政的第一,、第二年,,美國(guó)的家庭收入年化增長(zhǎng)率就已經(jīng)上升了3.8%,從最初的63,761美元增長(zhǎng)到了68,703美元,。

特朗普對(duì)于美國(guó)家庭收入的貢獻(xiàn)明顯高于他的前任們,,這也是他完成得最優(yōu)秀的一項(xiàng)指標(biāo)。哪怕是奧巴馬在任內(nèi)的八年中,,美國(guó)家庭收入折合成年率也只增長(zhǎng)了0.9%,,從上任前的59,458元美漲至了卸任時(shí)的63,761美元,。

值得注意的是,2020年的美國(guó)家庭平均收入數(shù)據(jù)尚未公布,,最終結(jié)果很可能受到疫情影響而產(chǎn)生衰退,。但根據(jù)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局公布的人均收入數(shù)據(jù),美國(guó)人的收入并沒(méi)有大幅下降,。事實(shí)上,,8月的美國(guó)人均收入還同比增長(zhǎng)了3.3%。在特朗普?qǐng)?zhí)政期間,,所有社會(huì)群體的收入均有所增長(zhǎng),。獲益于美國(guó)各城市居民要求“增加基本工資”的呼吁聲,其中低收入人群的收入增長(zhǎng)最快,。

據(jù)《財(cái)富》雜志統(tǒng)計(jì),,自特朗普任職總統(tǒng)以來(lái),他一共在推特上發(fā)了200余次有關(guān)股市及401K養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的內(nèi)容,??梢?jiàn)股市表現(xiàn)對(duì)特朗普而言相當(dāng)重要。然而,,在特朗普掌舵期間,股市的漲幅并未超越他的前任們,。

在特朗普第一個(gè)任期內(nèi),,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)年化增長(zhǎng)率為11.6%,該數(shù)值高于里根(10.2%),、老布什(10.9%),、小布什(-12%),但低于克林頓時(shí)期的15.2%及奧巴馬時(shí)期的13.8%,。

綜上分析,,最終的結(jié)論是什么呢?

在疫情所導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)爆發(fā)之前,,其實(shí)特朗普的成績(jī)可謂卓然,。在上述6項(xiàng)核心指標(biāo)(失業(yè)率、貿(mào)易赤字,、就業(yè)增長(zhǎng),、制造業(yè)崗位增長(zhǎng)、家庭收入增長(zhǎng),、股市漲幅)中,,特朗普已經(jīng)有4項(xiàng)領(lǐng)先于奧巴馬。但現(xiàn)在,,除了家庭收入指標(biāo)以外,,特朗普其余5項(xiàng)指標(biāo)均已一落千丈,,再次重新落后。不過(guò),,在特朗普第一個(gè)任期結(jié)束之前,,其在制造業(yè)領(lǐng)域的政績(jī)有望出現(xiàn)回轉(zhuǎn),重新超過(guò)奧巴馬,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳聰聰,、陳怡軒

While on the campaign trail in 2016, Donald Trump promised to create an economic boom.

But did he?

Before the onset of the pandemic—which created the hardest economic shock in U.S. history—he was at the helm of a historically strong economy. We’re in recovery now, but we still have a long way to go as more than 10 million Americans remain unemployed.

Fortune set out to measure how the economic performance under Trump stacks up to that of recent Presidents. We created annualized returns, or compound annual growth rates, for most of these metrics. That way we could fairly compare eight-year presidencies and four-year presidencies to Trump’s 44-month presidency.

We looked at the following U.S. economic metrics: The unemployment rate, the trade deficit, job growth, manufacturing job growth, income growth, and S&P 500 index returns.

Here’s what we learned.

When Trump took office the unemployment rate sat at just 4.7%. By February 2020 it had chipped down to 3.5%—a 50-year low.

Then the pandemic hit. The jobless rate soared to 14.7% in April, its highest level since 1940.

While the economy has since moved from contraction to recovery, with the jobless rate falling to 7.9% as of September, it’s still well above its level when Trump took office. If he loses reelection, he’ll likely join George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush as recent Presidents who left the White House with a higher level of joblessness than when they took office. Meanwhile, Barack Obama, who took office a year into the Great Recession, saw the jobless rate fall from 7.8% at his inauguration to 4.7% at his departure.

The silver lining for Trump? It may take decades for the U.S. to again reach the 3.5% unemployment rate low achieved during the Trump administration. Historically, the U.S. unemployment rate rarely drops under 5% outside of long economic expansions. The 10-year expansion that ended this year was the longest in U.S. history.

On the 2016 campaign trail, Trump promised to shrink or close the U.S. trade deficit. As President he’d wage a trade war with China, and pressure numerous allies on trade. Prior to the pandemic, the U.S. trade deficit was improving a bit under Trump, coming in at an annual rate of $37 billion in February—down from $42.9 billion when he took office.

But during the pandemic imports have surged (see the plunge in the chart, representing a widening gap). In August, the U.S. trade deficit hit $67.2 billion—the highest in 14 years.

During Obama’s eight years at the helm of the nation, U.S. employment maintained a 1% annualized return. That growth level had been climbing under Trump; as of February 2020 employment was increasing on a 1.5% annualized basis during his presidency.

But that was before the U.S. economy shed a staggering 22.2 million jobs in the spring. By April, U.S. employment had fallen from 152.5 million to 130.3 million—putting the country back at 1999 employment levels. We’ve since recovered 11.4 million jobs, however, the annualized job growth for Trump sits at –0.7%.

If Trump loses reelection and the nation doesn’t add or recover 3.9 million jobs by January, he’ll become the first post–World War II President to see employment fall during his presidency.

Before taking office, Trump promised he’d end the era of offshoring factory jobs and oversee a manufacturing renaissance.

While it was hardly a renaissance, manufacturing job growth did rise during Trump’s first three years: It rose 1.2% on an annualized basis through February. But at the onset of the pandemic, the nation lost nearly 1.4 million manufacturing jobs, wiping out all the gains made during the Trump years. We’ve since recovered 716,000, but annualized manufacturing job growth during the Trump administration is at –0.4%.

The good news? After recovering 66,000 manufacturing jobs in September, the nation is down by 164,000 manufacturing jobs since Trump took office. If that rate of recovery continues, Trump would pull that figure back into positive territory by the end of January. If he did so, he’d be the first President since Bill Clinton to oversee positive manufacturing job growth.

Manufacturing jobs fell during the presidencies of Reagan, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Obama.

Economics 101: Once an economy nears full employment, businesses must begin to bid up wages to secure and retain workers. That’s exactly what happened during the Trump administration—which oversaw the final three years of the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. During Trump’s first two years, real household income rose by 3.8% on an annualized basis. It climbed from $63,761 to $68,703.

Income growth is the one metric where Trump clearly stands ahead of his predecessors. During the eight-year Obama presidency, real household income rose by 0.9% on an annualized basis, climbing from $59,458 to $63,761.

We should note median household income hasn’t yet been released for 2020—a.k.a. the COVID-19 recession. But income data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis suggest incomes haven’t fallen dramatically. In fact, in August real personal incomes were up 3.3% year over year. Income gains during the Trump years rose for all income groups, with low-income earners seeing the most growth—a trend spurred in part by a movement among cities and states to increase the minimum wage.

Trump has tweeted about the stock market or 401(k)s nearly 200 times since his inauguration, according to Fortune’s count. It’s safe to assume that stock market performance is important to the President. However, the market gains during his time at the helm lag that of his predecessor.

During Trump’s first term the S&P 500 index has grown 11.6% on an annualized basis. That’s higher than the annualized return of the past three Republican presidents: Reagan (10.2%), George H.W. Bush (10.9%), and George W. Bush (–12%). But it’s below the levels seen under Clinton (15.2%) and Obama (13.8%).

Final verdict?

Before the economic crisis hit, the Trump years were ahead of the Obama years for gains in four of six core metrics Fortune looked at. But now the Obama years top Trump years in five of the six core economic metrics (unemployment rate, trade deficit, employment growth, manufacturing job growth, and stock market gains), while Trump is besting him in one (income growth). However, by the end of his first term, Trump is poised to retake Obama in manufacturing job growth.

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