圖片來(lái)源:ILLUSTRATION BY JAMIE CULLEN
2020年,投資者們可謂是應(yīng)接不暇,。
首先是新冠肺炎疫情,,讓眾多投資者感到措手不及。然后我們又迎來(lái)了壓力滿滿的夏季,,期間,,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一路跛行,從迅速?gòu)?fù)蘇發(fā)展成為緩慢反彈,。如今,,距離這個(gè)分化嚴(yán)重的美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選投票還有不到一個(gè)月的時(shí)間,一些人對(duì)其結(jié)果充滿擔(dān)憂,,他們不知道拜登的勝出或特朗普的繼任會(huì)對(duì)其手中持有的股票帶來(lái)什么樣的影響,。
這種焦慮部分說(shuō)明,,人們對(duì)于撲朔迷離的大選結(jié)果可能對(duì)市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)的影響感到異常擔(dān)心。這類不確定性很有可能意味著股市在短期內(nèi)會(huì)動(dòng)蕩不堪,。確實(shí),,一些投資者已經(jīng)在購(gòu)買期貨、期權(quán)和其他衍生工具,,如果股市在大選日之后立即出現(xiàn)大幅震蕩,,投資者便可以從這些工具中受益。其他人則像往常一樣出現(xiàn)了些許無(wú)助感,,他們不知道這兩位候選者在醫(yī)療,、高科技公司法規(guī)、稅收以及貿(mào)易方面的立場(chǎng)是否會(huì)在未來(lái)影響其資產(chǎn)組合,。
然而,,像資產(chǎn)管理公司Vontobel Quality Growth的首席投資官馬特?本肯多夫這樣的老手則從現(xiàn)實(shí)分析著手,給了這些焦慮人士一顆定心丸,。本肯多夫向《財(cái)富》雜志透露:“我認(rèn)為選舉影響通常都被過于夸大了,。實(shí)際上,如果我們回顧歷史,,大選本身并不像人們所想的那樣,,會(huì)對(duì)市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)如此大的影響。最終影響股價(jià)的依然是經(jīng)濟(jì)的基本健康度和增速以及企業(yè)的利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)狀況,?!?/p>
當(dāng)然,當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)遠(yuǎn)談不上健康,,而且經(jīng)濟(jì)需要多長(zhǎng)才能夠恢復(fù)到疫情前水平亦充滿了諸多不確定性,。資金管理公司通常都已經(jīng)敲定了少數(shù)幾個(gè)應(yīng)該避而遠(yuǎn)之的重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域(例如,在《財(cái)富》雜志采訪的一些人士中,,大多數(shù)都會(huì)規(guī)避金融和能源行業(yè)),。很多人建議將目光瞄向那些自帶防御能力的股票:不妨想想那些呈穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)、可以提供可靠股息收益的公司的股票,。
當(dāng)然,,從資產(chǎn)組合優(yōu)化角度來(lái)講,這也并非在說(shuō)這場(chǎng)白宮角逐大戲毫無(wú)影響,。拜登的當(dāng)選可能意味著公司稅收負(fù)擔(dān)的增加,,但政府開支也有可能增加,而特朗普的連任可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易摩擦的加劇,,但稅收負(fù)擔(dān)可能會(huì)減少。在短期內(nèi),,Nuveen的全球股票負(fù)責(zé)人塞拉?馬利克認(rèn)為最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)自于這場(chǎng)大選競(jìng)賽所帶來(lái)的市場(chǎng)波動(dòng),。但馬利克認(rèn)為,市場(chǎng)從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看將回歸溫和增長(zhǎng),也就是達(dá)到類似于疫情前的水平,。
考慮到這一點(diǎn),,正如馬利克提到的,問題如今變成了,,“如果你不想押注其中的任何一個(gè)陣營(yíng),,人們?cè)诙叹€和長(zhǎng)線操作時(shí)應(yīng)該購(gòu)買什么股票?”為了幫助投資者回答這個(gè)問題,,《財(cái)富》雜志詢問了四位頂級(jí)資產(chǎn)組合經(jīng)理,,讓他們推薦有助于盡可能地抵御選舉影響、有望在未來(lái)四年或更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)有著不俗表現(xiàn)的股票組合,。
專注于消費(fèi)者
在經(jīng)濟(jì)中,,有沒有某個(gè)板塊不會(huì)受到2020年選舉的影響?那就是消費(fèi)開支,。盡管就業(yè)和收入遭到了疫情的沖擊,,而且像旅游這類可選活動(dòng)的開支出現(xiàn)了暴跌,但消費(fèi)開支依然占到了經(jīng)濟(jì)的約70%,。
因此,,資產(chǎn)組合經(jīng)理正在搜尋消費(fèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)中穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)、有望在各種環(huán)境中表現(xiàn)良好而且能夠承載新消費(fèi)趨勢(shì)的公司,。在這些公司中,,大多數(shù)都屬于日常消費(fèi)品類目。馬利克解釋說(shuō):“這類公司有這個(gè)抵御能力,,它們會(huì)因?yàn)槠渖a(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品獲得良好的業(yè)績(jī),,而且這些產(chǎn)品在任何情況下都是必須品。人們可以在這些領(lǐng)域獲得一些收益,?!保ㄊ找媸峭顿Y者尤為渴望追逐的事物:由于不管誰(shuí)入主白宮,利率至少在2023年之前都會(huì)停留在零點(diǎn)水平,,而且標(biāo)普500公司平均股息收益業(yè)已下滑至1.7%,,因此高額股息支付公司顯然要更具吸引力。)
在這類股票中,,馬利克推薦家居改善零售商家得寶的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手勞氏(Lowe’s,,股票代碼:LOW,股價(jià)171美元),。她十分欣賞該股票1.4%的收益率,,而且事實(shí)上該公司已經(jīng)為服務(wù)這個(gè)再次振興的房屋市場(chǎng)做好了準(zhǔn)備。由于更多的人都因?yàn)槠渥∷赡軙?huì)成為其工作場(chǎng)所而投資家居環(huán)境,,馬利克認(rèn)為勞氏將迎來(lái)“一系列有利的因素”,。尤為值得一提的是,,她相信該公司會(huì)受益于自身公司網(wǎng)站升級(jí)帶來(lái)的電商業(yè)務(wù)崛起、供應(yīng)鏈改善帶來(lái)的成本控制,,及其專業(yè)受眾的回歸(因?yàn)楦嗟目蛻粼俅芜x擇使用承包商),。(馬利克更喜歡勞氏而不是家得寶的原因在于前者的市盈率要低得多。)
Jensen Investment Management董事總經(jīng)理兼資產(chǎn)組合經(jīng)理埃瑞克?斯科恩斯騰則推薦百事公司(PepsiCo,,股票代碼:PEP,,股價(jià)138美元),因?yàn)槠渑上⑹找孢_(dá)到了3%,。但他認(rèn)為,,股票并非只是“因?yàn)槭找媛识@得收益”。他說(shuō):“這些公司實(shí)現(xiàn)了真正的增長(zhǎng),、營(yíng)收,、盈利和現(xiàn)金流?!北M管百事所稱的“家庭之外”的銷售額(斯科恩斯騰稱占其總銷售額約35%到40%)在今年因?yàn)榘羟蝮w育館和餐館等場(chǎng)所的關(guān)閉而受到了沖擊,,但斯科恩斯騰認(rèn)為,其便利店和居家產(chǎn)品(包括居家零食產(chǎn)品,,例如Quaker Oats和Cheetos)在一定程度上幫助減少了損失,。未來(lái),他預(yù)計(jì)百事將實(shí)現(xiàn)中值到高值個(gè)位數(shù)的營(yíng)收增速,。
基建潮
DWS Group的美國(guó)業(yè)務(wù)首席投資官大衛(wèi)?比揚(yáng)卡認(rèn)為:“不管誰(shuí)入主白宮,,很多人認(rèn)為基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施將成為大選后的熱點(diǎn)行業(yè)?!眱牲h都贊成應(yīng)該加大對(duì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的投資,,而且比揚(yáng)卡“并不懷疑美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)可能會(huì)因此而出臺(tái)某種形式的投資方案?!比欢葥P(yáng)卡認(rèn)為,,這并非是祖父時(shí)代的那種“基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施”。它不僅僅是道路和橋梁,,同時(shí)還包括“新經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu),,在我看來(lái)就是智能電網(wǎng)、5G通訊,?!?/p>
比揚(yáng)卡認(rèn)為,即便存在政治不確定性,,有一個(gè)領(lǐng)域具有“唾手可得的不俗回報(bào)”,,那就是公用設(shè)施。他表示,,公用設(shè)施是“非常成熟,、可靠的創(chuàng)收業(yè)務(wù)”,,同時(shí)他認(rèn)為在未來(lái),,電子公司在5G技術(shù)的推出方面會(huì)發(fā)揮尤為重要的作用:“電線桿由公用設(shè)施公司所有,,而且它們將在安裝5G蜂窩系統(tǒng)方面發(fā)揮重要的作用,而且隨著時(shí)間的推移還將獲得一些場(chǎng)地租賃收益,?!?/p>
這類趨勢(shì)有可能會(huì)提振電網(wǎng)和可再生能源領(lǐng)域的大拿NextEra Energy(股票代碼:NEE,股價(jià)301美元),。該公司股票遠(yuǎn)期市盈率約為30倍,,派息收益率為1.8%。NextEra是公用設(shè)施公司Florida Power & Light與Gulf Power的母公司,,而且重點(diǎn)專注于清潔能源,。即便沒有通常伴隨民主黨總統(tǒng)而來(lái)的清潔能源支持,公司在共和黨政府的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下也一直處于增長(zhǎng)當(dāng)中,。NextEra的首席執(zhí)行官詹姆斯?羅博在最近的電話會(huì)議上宣布:“我們一直在對(duì)我們的業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行定位,,以獲得成功,并擺脫大選結(jié)果的影響,?!?/p>
Nuveen的馬利克還說(shuō),她預(yù)計(jì)大選之后會(huì)出現(xiàn)基建潮,。這對(duì)于Terex(股票代碼:TEX,,股價(jià)25美元)來(lái)說(shuō)應(yīng)該是一個(gè)好消息,該公司致力于生產(chǎn)建造行業(yè)空中作業(yè)平臺(tái)和設(shè)備,。公司受到了新冠疫情和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的嚴(yán)重沖擊,,其營(yíng)收在過去12個(gè)月中的跌幅超過了25%。然而公司的股價(jià)依然居高不下,,其持續(xù)運(yùn)營(yíng)靜態(tài)平均市盈率約為35倍(該行業(yè)當(dāng)前的平均水平為21倍),。馬利克認(rèn)為,Terex是“一名幸存者”,,而且相信公司的空中作業(yè)平臺(tái)部門(占到其銷售額的60%至65%)將出現(xiàn)預(yù)期的反彈,,繼而成為Terex營(yíng)收恢復(fù)的“首要引擎”。她重點(diǎn)提到了Terex強(qiáng)勁的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債情況,,并指出“公司在2024年之前沒有到期債務(wù),,同時(shí)還擁有正現(xiàn)金流?!彼€稱贊了首席執(zhí)行官約翰?加里森通過在2019年出售吊車等部門來(lái)精簡(jiǎn)公司的舉措,。她說(shuō):“這家公司將在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)回歸正常營(yíng)收,并度過經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,?!?/p>
可以肯定的是,,提升基建投資和財(cái)政支出并非既成事實(shí),而且很多投資者希望能夠確認(rèn)其股票不會(huì)受累于政府增加開支的舉措,。這也是為什么Jensen的斯科恩斯騰對(duì)3M(股票代碼:MMM,,股價(jià)168美元)青睞有加的原因。這家業(yè)務(wù)多元化的行業(yè)巨頭生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品包括飛機(jī),、運(yùn)輸,、鐵路和商用車組件(當(dāng)然還有個(gè)人防護(hù)設(shè)備)。斯科恩斯騰表示:“該公司不同的部門可以攜手并進(jìn),,在逆境中相互扶持,,在順境中共同成長(zhǎng)?!彼J(rèn)為3M的業(yè)務(wù)模式“略顯得更有韌性”的原因在于,,它并非“完全依靠大量的刺激性支出”,但也能夠從中受益,。此外,,公司的股價(jià)相對(duì)便宜,其遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為19倍,,其股息收益為3.5%,。
令人驚訝的領(lǐng)域:科技與醫(yī)療
在眾多受大選影響最嚴(yán)重的領(lǐng)域中,被種種新聞和政治辭令弄的頭昏腦脹的投資者可能會(huì)想到這兩個(gè)領(lǐng)域,。醫(yī)療可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些大的變化,,例如,從保險(xiǎn)“公眾選擇”的增加到白宮降低藥價(jià)的舉措,。與此同時(shí),,科技公司因?yàn)槠湟?guī)模和市場(chǎng)影響力而受到了決策者們的批評(píng),而且一些投資者越來(lái)越意識(shí)到,,這些公司的股價(jià)已經(jīng)過高,。然而,資產(chǎn)組合經(jīng)理依然看到了不少機(jī)會(huì),,這些機(jī)會(huì)應(yīng)該有助于其規(guī)避任何重大不利因素,,且無(wú)需考慮陣營(yíng)的問題。
例如,,DWS的比揚(yáng)卡并不認(rèn)為哪一個(gè)政黨(西部科技公司與東部科技公司之間存在競(jìng)爭(zhēng),,我并不認(rèn)為美國(guó)政客會(huì)采取舉措來(lái)削弱西部科技公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)能力)會(huì)“出臺(tái)任何刁難科技公司的立法”。
然而,,一些大型科技公司比其他公司更加脆弱,。這也是為什么本肯多夫選擇微軟(Microsoft,股票代碼:MSFT,股價(jià)211美元)的原因,,因?yàn)樵摴尽爱?dāng)前都不在兩黨炮火的射程范圍之內(nèi)”,,然而像亞馬遜這類同行則有著不同的待遇。本肯多夫認(rèn)為,,考慮到微軟擁有穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)的軟件購(gòu)買業(yè)務(wù),,欣欣向榮的云平臺(tái)Azure,以及最近的各種收購(gòu),,“雖然微軟的股票表現(xiàn)還不錯(cuò),,但該公司將繼續(xù)被人們低估,也得不到應(yīng)有的賞識(shí),。”微軟遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為32倍,,其估值與眾多高高在上的同行相距甚遠(yuǎn),。
Jensen的斯科恩斯騰同樣認(rèn)為,微軟“能夠免受一些監(jiān)管問題的困擾”,。他指出,,科技巨頭在20年前便面臨著這些困難,但依然活了下來(lái),。他認(rèn)為微軟的工具和產(chǎn)品(包括其商業(yè)交流平臺(tái)Teams)正在幫助人們“適應(yīng)居家工作環(huán)境”,。斯科恩斯騰估計(jì),這一境況在未來(lái)幾年中可能會(huì)持續(xù),,受此影響,,公司可能會(huì)迎來(lái)低值雙位數(shù)的營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)。
本肯多夫認(rèn)為,,醫(yī)療保健是另一個(gè)投資者可能過于關(guān)注“新聞標(biāo)題恐懼”的領(lǐng)域,。他說(shuō):“人們可能會(huì)想:‘哦,我的天哪,,如果民主黨當(dāng)選,,什么什么事情就會(huì)發(fā)生?!钡罢f(shuō)到能夠?yàn)榭蛻魩?lái)巨大價(jià)值的絕佳業(yè)務(wù),,我認(rèn)為醫(yī)療設(shè)備依然是一個(gè)相對(duì)安全的行業(yè)?!?/p>
符合本肯多夫條件的其中一家公司是美敦力(Medtronic,,股票代碼:MDT,股價(jià)108美元),,他認(rèn)為這家醫(yī)療設(shè)備制造商屬于“安全,、經(jīng)營(yíng)良好、穩(wěn)健,、可預(yù)測(cè)的成長(zhǎng)型企業(yè)”,。公司生產(chǎn)的設(shè)備包括起搏器和胰島素泵,,其遠(yuǎn)期市盈率約為22倍,低于行業(yè)平均水平,。本肯多夫稱,,美敦力的Micra AV設(shè)備(一款無(wú)線微型起搏器)呈現(xiàn)出了強(qiáng)勁的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭。他還認(rèn)為公司的新首席執(zhí)行官杰奧夫?瑪莎正“尋求將更多的自主權(quán)下放至業(yè)務(wù)部門,,此舉最終將提升公司的靈活性,。”本肯多夫認(rèn)為,,即便美國(guó)醫(yī)療系統(tǒng)會(huì)受到藍(lán)營(yíng)(民主黨)入主白宮的影響,,“然而從各方面看,醫(yī)療公司在奧巴馬執(zhí)政時(shí)期過得并不算糟糕,。”
美國(guó)之外
有鑒于大選逆風(fēng)席卷全美,,一些資產(chǎn)組合管理公司正在尋找美國(guó)之外的潛力增長(zhǎng)股,,尤其是東亞地區(qū)。盡管如此,,資產(chǎn)組合管理公司認(rèn)為,,不管誰(shuí)上臺(tái),美國(guó)與中國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易緊張局勢(shì)不會(huì)消失,。然而,,這一點(diǎn)并不能夠阻止他們投資那些足夠強(qiáng)大的公司,來(lái)抵御Vontobel的本肯多夫所謂的“正當(dāng)”但“激昂的政治辭令”,。
中國(guó)的阿里巴巴集團(tuán)(股票代碼:BABA,,股價(jià)301美元)便是一家?guī)缀鯚o(wú)人能出其右的公司。這家巨型零售商在中國(guó)消費(fèi)者心目中的地位已經(jīng)根深蒂固,,這一點(diǎn)類似于亞馬遜,,但其遠(yuǎn)期市盈率約為29倍,而亞馬遜則達(dá)到了89倍,。Nuveen的馬利克認(rèn)為阿里巴巴有著“頗具吸引力的估值,,以及強(qiáng)勁的電商廣告增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭”,然而該公司“對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的推動(dòng)作用不如”其他零售商,。她還十分欣賞阿里巴巴進(jìn)軍地方商超行業(yè)的舉措,。
與此同時(shí),本肯多夫非??春梦浵伣鸱磳⑴e行的首次公開募股,,阿里巴巴在該公司的持股比例約為33%。他說(shuō),該IPO“應(yīng)該會(huì)激發(fā)阿里巴巴股價(jià)的額外價(jià)值,?!北究隙喾蜻€指出,美國(guó)與中國(guó)之間的較勁對(duì)阿里巴巴的威脅可能要低于其他公司,,因?yàn)榘⒗锇桶褪且患摇胺浅W⒂诒緡?guó)市場(chǎng)的企業(yè),,而且中國(guó)有著龐大的本土市場(chǎng)?!?/p>
在亞洲其他地方,,總部位于日本的Ibiden是一個(gè)不顯山露水但有著同樣吸引力的企業(yè)。該公司生產(chǎn)印制電路板和集成電路封裝板,。馬利克指出:“在新一代CPU的市場(chǎng)中,,英特爾和AMD有著很大的需求?!彼J(rèn)為Ibiden是封裝領(lǐng)域的“領(lǐng)頭羊”,,而且這一行業(yè)的準(zhǔn)入門檻很高。她認(rèn)為,,“隨著Ibiden通過擴(kuò)張產(chǎn)能來(lái)滿足大量的需求,公司將迎來(lái)持續(xù)多年的增長(zhǎng)”,,繼而帶來(lái)更高的利潤(rùn)率,。
馬利克還推薦臺(tái)積電(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.,股票代碼:TSM,,股價(jià)88美元)這家全球最大的代工芯片制造商,。她對(duì)臺(tái)積電青睞有加的原因在于公司受益于全球5G技術(shù)的推廣。馬利克指出,,智能手機(jī)占據(jù)了該芯片制造商約半數(shù)的業(yè)務(wù),,而且“隨著蘋果提升iPhone 12的產(chǎn)能,該公司亦會(huì)從中受益”,。臺(tái)積電生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品非常復(fù)雜,、先進(jìn),對(duì)于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手來(lái)說(shuō)是難以逾越的準(zhǔn)入門檻,。馬利克預(yù)測(cè),,公司的增長(zhǎng)將受益于“高性能計(jì)算能力數(shù)據(jù)中心”,也就是亞馬遜,、微軟和谷歌所修建的這類中心(她指出,,針對(duì)此類云計(jì)算的芯片占到了公司營(yíng)收的約30%至35%)。臺(tái)積電在英特爾這位新客戶那里也有著很大的業(yè)務(wù)潛力,,后者已經(jīng)釋放出信號(hào),,它可能會(huì)把自家更多的芯片業(yè)務(wù)外包給臺(tái)積電。馬利克估計(jì),該業(yè)務(wù)在未來(lái)五年可能會(huì)為公司帶來(lái)20%的營(yíng)收增幅,。公司的股價(jià)依然有上升空間,,當(dāng)前的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為25倍,低于半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)當(dāng)前29倍的平均水平,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
所有股價(jià)均為截至2020年10月8日的價(jià)格,。
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
2020年,投資者們可謂是應(yīng)接不暇,。
首先是新冠肺炎疫情,,讓眾多投資者感到措手不及。然后我們又迎來(lái)了壓力滿滿的夏季,,期間,,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一路跛行,從迅速?gòu)?fù)蘇發(fā)展成為緩慢反彈,。如今,,距離這個(gè)分化嚴(yán)重的美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選投票還有不到一個(gè)月的時(shí)間,一些人對(duì)其結(jié)果充滿擔(dān)憂,,他們不知道拜登的勝出或特朗普的繼任會(huì)對(duì)其手中持有的股票帶來(lái)什么樣的影響,。
這種焦慮部分說(shuō)明,人們對(duì)于撲朔迷離的大選結(jié)果可能對(duì)市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)的影響感到異常擔(dān)心,。這類不確定性很有可能意味著股市在短期內(nèi)會(huì)動(dòng)蕩不堪,。確實(shí),一些投資者已經(jīng)在購(gòu)買期貨,、期權(quán)和其他衍生工具,,如果股市在大選日之后立即出現(xiàn)大幅震蕩,投資者便可以從這些工具中受益,。其他人則像往常一樣出現(xiàn)了些許無(wú)助感,,他們不知道這兩位候選者在醫(yī)療、高科技公司法規(guī),、稅收以及貿(mào)易方面的立場(chǎng)是否會(huì)在未來(lái)影響其資產(chǎn)組合,。
然而,像資產(chǎn)管理公司Vontobel Quality Growth的首席投資官馬特?本肯多夫這樣的老手則從現(xiàn)實(shí)分析著手,,給了這些焦慮人士一顆定心丸,。本肯多夫向《財(cái)富》雜志透露:“我認(rèn)為選舉影響通常都被過于夸大了。實(shí)際上,,如果我們回顧歷史,,大選本身并不像人們所想的那樣,會(huì)對(duì)市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)如此大的影響,。最終影響股價(jià)的依然是經(jīng)濟(jì)的基本健康度和增速以及企業(yè)的利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)狀況,?!?/p>
當(dāng)然,當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)遠(yuǎn)談不上健康,,而且經(jīng)濟(jì)需要多長(zhǎng)才能夠恢復(fù)到疫情前水平亦充滿了諸多不確定性,。資金管理公司通常都已經(jīng)敲定了少數(shù)幾個(gè)應(yīng)該避而遠(yuǎn)之的重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域(例如,在《財(cái)富》雜志采訪的一些人士中,,大多數(shù)都會(huì)規(guī)避金融和能源行業(yè)),。很多人建議將目光瞄向那些自帶防御能力的股票:不妨想想那些呈穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)、可以提供可靠股息收益的公司的股票,。
當(dāng)然,,從資產(chǎn)組合優(yōu)化角度來(lái)講,這也并非在說(shuō)這場(chǎng)白宮角逐大戲毫無(wú)影響,。拜登的當(dāng)選可能意味著公司稅收負(fù)擔(dān)的增加,,但政府開支也有可能增加,而特朗普的連任可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易摩擦的加劇,,但稅收負(fù)擔(dān)可能會(huì)減少,。在短期內(nèi),Nuveen的全球股票負(fù)責(zé)人塞拉?馬利克認(rèn)為最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)自于這場(chǎng)大選競(jìng)賽所帶來(lái)的市場(chǎng)波動(dòng),。但馬利克認(rèn)為,,市場(chǎng)從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看將回歸溫和增長(zhǎng),也就是達(dá)到類似于疫情前的水平,。
考慮到這一點(diǎn),,正如馬利克提到的,問題如今變成了,,“如果你不想押注其中的任何一個(gè)陣營(yíng),人們?cè)诙叹€和長(zhǎng)線操作時(shí)應(yīng)該購(gòu)買什么股票,?”為了幫助投資者回答這個(gè)問題,,《財(cái)富》雜志詢問了四位頂級(jí)資產(chǎn)組合經(jīng)理,讓他們推薦有助于盡可能地抵御選舉影響,、有望在未來(lái)四年或更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)有著不俗表現(xiàn)的股票組合,。
專注于消費(fèi)者
在經(jīng)濟(jì)中,有沒有某個(gè)板塊不會(huì)受到2020年選舉的影響,?那就是消費(fèi)開支,。盡管就業(yè)和收入遭到了疫情的沖擊,而且像旅游這類可選活動(dòng)的開支出現(xiàn)了暴跌,,但消費(fèi)開支依然占到了經(jīng)濟(jì)的約70%,。
因此,資產(chǎn)組合經(jīng)理正在搜尋消費(fèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)中穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng),、有望在各種環(huán)境中表現(xiàn)良好而且能夠承載新消費(fèi)趨勢(shì)的公司,。在這些公司中,,大多數(shù)都屬于日常消費(fèi)品類目。馬利克解釋說(shuō):“這類公司有這個(gè)抵御能力,,它們會(huì)因?yàn)槠渖a(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品獲得良好的業(yè)績(jī),,而且這些產(chǎn)品在任何情況下都是必須品。人們可以在這些領(lǐng)域獲得一些收益,?!保ㄊ找媸峭顿Y者尤為渴望追逐的事物:由于不管誰(shuí)入主白宮,利率至少在2023年之前都會(huì)停留在零點(diǎn)水平,,而且標(biāo)普500公司平均股息收益業(yè)已下滑至1.7%,,因此高額股息支付公司顯然要更具吸引力。)
在這類股票中,,馬利克推薦家居改善零售商家得寶的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手勞氏(Lowe’s,,股票代碼:LOW,股價(jià)171美元),。她十分欣賞該股票1.4%的收益率,,而且事實(shí)上該公司已經(jīng)為服務(wù)這個(gè)再次振興的房屋市場(chǎng)做好了準(zhǔn)備。由于更多的人都因?yàn)槠渥∷赡軙?huì)成為其工作場(chǎng)所而投資家居環(huán)境,,馬利克認(rèn)為勞氏將迎來(lái)“一系列有利的因素”,。尤為值得一提的是,她相信該公司會(huì)受益于自身公司網(wǎng)站升級(jí)帶來(lái)的電商業(yè)務(wù)崛起,、供應(yīng)鏈改善帶來(lái)的成本控制,,及其專業(yè)受眾的回歸(因?yàn)楦嗟目蛻粼俅芜x擇使用承包商)。(馬利克更喜歡勞氏而不是家得寶的原因在于前者的市盈率要低得多,。)
Jensen Investment Management董事總經(jīng)理兼資產(chǎn)組合經(jīng)理埃瑞克?斯科恩斯騰則推薦百事公司(PepsiCo,,股票代碼:PEP,股價(jià)138美元),,因?yàn)槠渑上⑹找孢_(dá)到了3%,。但他認(rèn)為,股票并非只是“因?yàn)槭找媛识@得收益”,。他說(shuō):“這些公司實(shí)現(xiàn)了真正的增長(zhǎng),、營(yíng)收、盈利和現(xiàn)金流,?!北M管百事所稱的“家庭之外”的銷售額(斯科恩斯騰稱占其總銷售額約35%到40%)在今年因?yàn)榘羟蝮w育館和餐館等場(chǎng)所的關(guān)閉而受到了沖擊,但斯科恩斯騰認(rèn)為,,其便利店和居家產(chǎn)品(包括居家零食產(chǎn)品,,例如Quaker Oats和Cheetos)在一定程度上幫助減少了損失。未來(lái),,他預(yù)計(jì)百事將實(shí)現(xiàn)中值到高值個(gè)位數(shù)的營(yíng)收增速,。
基建潮
DWS Group的美國(guó)業(yè)務(wù)首席投資官大衛(wèi)?比揚(yáng)卡認(rèn)為:“不管誰(shuí)入主白宮,,很多人認(rèn)為基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施將成為大選后的熱點(diǎn)行業(yè)?!眱牲h都贊成應(yīng)該加大對(duì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的投資,,而且比揚(yáng)卡“并不懷疑美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)可能會(huì)因此而出臺(tái)某種形式的投資方案?!比欢葥P(yáng)卡認(rèn)為,,這并非是祖父時(shí)代的那種“基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施”。它不僅僅是道路和橋梁,,同時(shí)還包括“新經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu),,在我看來(lái)就是智能電網(wǎng)、5G通訊,?!?/p>
比揚(yáng)卡認(rèn)為,即便存在政治不確定性,,有一個(gè)領(lǐng)域具有“唾手可得的不俗回報(bào)”,,那就是公用設(shè)施。他表示,,公用設(shè)施是“非常成熟,、可靠的創(chuàng)收業(yè)務(wù)”,同時(shí)他認(rèn)為在未來(lái),,電子公司在5G技術(shù)的推出方面會(huì)發(fā)揮尤為重要的作用:“電線桿由公用設(shè)施公司所有,,而且它們將在安裝5G蜂窩系統(tǒng)方面發(fā)揮重要的作用,而且隨著時(shí)間的推移還將獲得一些場(chǎng)地租賃收益,?!?/p>
這類趨勢(shì)有可能會(huì)提振電網(wǎng)和可再生能源領(lǐng)域的大拿NextEra Energy(股票代碼:NEE,股價(jià)301美元),。該公司股票遠(yuǎn)期市盈率約為30倍,,派息收益率為1.8%。NextEra是公用設(shè)施公司Florida Power & Light與Gulf Power的母公司,,而且重點(diǎn)專注于清潔能源。即便沒有通常伴隨民主黨總統(tǒng)而來(lái)的清潔能源支持,,公司在共和黨政府的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下也一直處于增長(zhǎng)當(dāng)中,。NextEra的首席執(zhí)行官詹姆斯?羅博在最近的電話會(huì)議上宣布:“我們一直在對(duì)我們的業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行定位,以獲得成功,,并擺脫大選結(jié)果的影響,?!?/p>
Nuveen的馬利克還說(shuō),,她預(yù)計(jì)大選之后會(huì)出現(xiàn)基建潮。這對(duì)于Terex(股票代碼:TEX,,股價(jià)25美元)來(lái)說(shuō)應(yīng)該是一個(gè)好消息,,該公司致力于生產(chǎn)建造行業(yè)空中作業(yè)平臺(tái)和設(shè)備。公司受到了新冠疫情和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的嚴(yán)重沖擊,,其營(yíng)收在過去12個(gè)月中的跌幅超過了25%,。然而公司的股價(jià)依然居高不下,其持續(xù)運(yùn)營(yíng)靜態(tài)平均市盈率約為35倍(該行業(yè)當(dāng)前的平均水平為21倍),。馬利克認(rèn)為,,Terex是“一名幸存者”,而且相信公司的空中作業(yè)平臺(tái)部門(占到其銷售額的60%至65%)將出現(xiàn)預(yù)期的反彈,,繼而成為Terex營(yíng)收恢復(fù)的“首要引擎”,。她重點(diǎn)提到了Terex強(qiáng)勁的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債情況,并指出“公司在2024年之前沒有到期債務(wù),,同時(shí)還擁有正現(xiàn)金流,。”她還稱贊了首席執(zhí)行官約翰?加里森通過在2019年出售吊車等部門來(lái)精簡(jiǎn)公司的舉措,。她說(shuō):“這家公司將在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)回歸正常營(yíng)收,,并度過經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退?!?/p>
可以肯定的是,,提升基建投資和財(cái)政支出并非既成事實(shí),而且很多投資者希望能夠確認(rèn)其股票不會(huì)受累于政府增加開支的舉措,。這也是為什么Jensen的斯科恩斯騰對(duì)3M(股票代碼:MMM,,股價(jià)168美元)青睞有加的原因。這家業(yè)務(wù)多元化的行業(yè)巨頭生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品包括飛機(jī),、運(yùn)輸,、鐵路和商用車組件(當(dāng)然還有個(gè)人防護(hù)設(shè)備)。斯科恩斯騰表示:“該公司不同的部門可以攜手并進(jìn),,在逆境中相互扶持,在順境中共同成長(zhǎng),。”他認(rèn)為3M的業(yè)務(wù)模式“略顯得更有韌性”的原因在于,,它并非“完全依靠大量的刺激性支出”,,但也能夠從中受益。此外,,公司的股價(jià)相對(duì)便宜,,其遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為19倍,,其股息收益為3.5%,。
令人驚訝的領(lǐng)域:科技與醫(yī)療
在眾多受大選影響最嚴(yán)重的領(lǐng)域中,被種種新聞和政治辭令弄的頭昏腦脹的投資者可能會(huì)想到這兩個(gè)領(lǐng)域,。醫(yī)療可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些大的變化,例如,,從保險(xiǎn)“公眾選擇”的增加到白宮降低藥價(jià)的舉措。與此同時(shí),,科技公司因?yàn)槠湟?guī)模和市場(chǎng)影響力而受到了決策者們的批評(píng),而且一些投資者越來(lái)越意識(shí)到,,這些公司的股價(jià)已經(jīng)過高。然而,,資產(chǎn)組合經(jīng)理依然看到了不少機(jī)會(huì),這些機(jī)會(huì)應(yīng)該有助于其規(guī)避任何重大不利因素,,且無(wú)需考慮陣營(yíng)的問題。
例如,,DWS的比揚(yáng)卡并不認(rèn)為哪一個(gè)政黨(西部科技公司與東部科技公司之間存在競(jìng)爭(zhēng),我并不認(rèn)為美國(guó)政客會(huì)采取舉措來(lái)削弱西部科技公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)能力)會(huì)“出臺(tái)任何刁難科技公司的立法”,。
然而,一些大型科技公司比其他公司更加脆弱,。這也是為什么本肯多夫選擇微軟(Microsoft,股票代碼:MSFT,,股價(jià)211美元)的原因,因?yàn)樵摴尽爱?dāng)前都不在兩黨炮火的射程范圍之內(nèi)”,,然而像亞馬遜這類同行則有著不同的待遇,。本肯多夫認(rèn)為,,考慮到微軟擁有穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)的軟件購(gòu)買業(yè)務(wù),,欣欣向榮的云平臺(tái)Azure,,以及最近的各種收購(gòu),“雖然微軟的股票表現(xiàn)還不錯(cuò),,但該公司將繼續(xù)被人們低估,也得不到應(yīng)有的賞識(shí),。”微軟遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為32倍,,其估值與眾多高高在上的同行相距甚遠(yuǎn)。
Jensen的斯科恩斯騰同樣認(rèn)為,,微軟“能夠免受一些監(jiān)管問題的困擾”,。他指出,科技巨頭在20年前便面臨著這些困難,,但依然活了下來(lái),。他認(rèn)為微軟的工具和產(chǎn)品(包括其商業(yè)交流平臺(tái)Teams)正在幫助人們“適應(yīng)居家工作環(huán)境”,。斯科恩斯騰估計(jì),這一境況在未來(lái)幾年中可能會(huì)持續(xù),,受此影響,,公司可能會(huì)迎來(lái)低值雙位數(shù)的營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)。
本肯多夫認(rèn)為,,醫(yī)療保健是另一個(gè)投資者可能過于關(guān)注“新聞標(biāo)題恐懼”的領(lǐng)域。他說(shuō):“人們可能會(huì)想:‘哦,,我的天哪,如果民主黨當(dāng)選,什么什么事情就會(huì)發(fā)生,。’”但“說(shuō)到能夠?yàn)榭蛻魩?lái)巨大價(jià)值的絕佳業(yè)務(wù),,我認(rèn)為醫(yī)療設(shè)備依然是一個(gè)相對(duì)安全的行業(yè),。”
符合本肯多夫條件的其中一家公司是美敦力(Medtronic,,股票代碼:MDT,股價(jià)108美元),,他認(rèn)為這家醫(yī)療設(shè)備制造商屬于“安全,、經(jīng)營(yíng)良好、穩(wěn)健,、可預(yù)測(cè)的成長(zhǎng)型企業(yè)”。公司生產(chǎn)的設(shè)備包括起搏器和胰島素泵,,其遠(yuǎn)期市盈率約為22倍,,低于行業(yè)平均水平,。本肯多夫稱,,美敦力的Micra AV設(shè)備(一款無(wú)線微型起搏器)呈現(xiàn)出了強(qiáng)勁的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭,。他還認(rèn)為公司的新首席執(zhí)行官杰奧夫?瑪莎正“尋求將更多的自主權(quán)下放至業(yè)務(wù)部門,此舉最終將提升公司的靈活性,?!北究隙喾蛘J(rèn)為,即便美國(guó)醫(yī)療系統(tǒng)會(huì)受到藍(lán)營(yíng)(民主黨)入主白宮的影響,,“然而從各方面看,,醫(yī)療公司在奧巴馬執(zhí)政時(shí)期過得并不算糟糕?!?/p>
美國(guó)之外
有鑒于大選逆風(fēng)席卷全美,,一些資產(chǎn)組合管理公司正在尋找美國(guó)之外的潛力增長(zhǎng)股,尤其是東亞地區(qū)。盡管如此,,資產(chǎn)組合管理公司認(rèn)為,,不管誰(shuí)上臺(tái),美國(guó)與中國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易緊張局勢(shì)不會(huì)消失,。然而,,這一點(diǎn)并不能夠阻止他們投資那些足夠強(qiáng)大的公司,,來(lái)抵御Vontobel的本肯多夫所謂的“正當(dāng)”但“激昂的政治辭令”。
中國(guó)的阿里巴巴集團(tuán)(股票代碼:BABA,,股價(jià)301美元)便是一家?guī)缀鯚o(wú)人能出其右的公司。這家巨型零售商在中國(guó)消費(fèi)者心目中的地位已經(jīng)根深蒂固,,這一點(diǎn)類似于亞馬遜,,但其遠(yuǎn)期市盈率約為29倍,,而亞馬遜則達(dá)到了89倍,。Nuveen的馬利克認(rèn)為阿里巴巴有著“頗具吸引力的估值,以及強(qiáng)勁的電商廣告增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭”,,然而該公司“對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的推動(dòng)作用不如”其他零售商。她還十分欣賞阿里巴巴進(jìn)軍地方商超行業(yè)的舉措,。
與此同時(shí),,本肯多夫非常看好螞蟻金服即將舉行的首次公開募股,,阿里巴巴在該公司的持股比例約為33%,。他說(shuō),該IPO“應(yīng)該會(huì)激發(fā)阿里巴巴股價(jià)的額外價(jià)值?!北究隙喾蜻€指出,美國(guó)與中國(guó)之間的較勁對(duì)阿里巴巴的威脅可能要低于其他公司,,因?yàn)榘⒗锇桶褪且患摇胺浅W⒂诒緡?guó)市場(chǎng)的企業(yè),而且中國(guó)有著龐大的本土市場(chǎng),?!?/p>
在亞洲其他地方,,總部位于日本的Ibiden是一個(gè)不顯山露水但有著同樣吸引力的企業(yè)。該公司生產(chǎn)印制電路板和集成電路封裝板,。馬利克指出:“在新一代CPU的市場(chǎng)中,,英特爾和AMD有著很大的需求?!彼J(rèn)為Ibiden是封裝領(lǐng)域的“領(lǐng)頭羊”,,而且這一行業(yè)的準(zhǔn)入門檻很高。她認(rèn)為,,“隨著Ibiden通過擴(kuò)張產(chǎn)能來(lái)滿足大量的需求,,公司將迎來(lái)持續(xù)多年的增長(zhǎng)”,繼而帶來(lái)更高的利潤(rùn)率,。
馬利克還推薦臺(tái)積電(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.,,股票代碼:TSM,股價(jià)88美元)這家全球最大的代工芯片制造商,。她對(duì)臺(tái)積電青睞有加的原因在于公司受益于全球5G技術(shù)的推廣,。馬利克指出,智能手機(jī)占據(jù)了該芯片制造商約半數(shù)的業(yè)務(wù),,而且“隨著蘋果提升iPhone 12的產(chǎn)能,,該公司亦會(huì)從中受益”。臺(tái)積電生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品非常復(fù)雜,、先進(jìn),,對(duì)于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手來(lái)說(shuō)是難以逾越的準(zhǔn)入門檻。馬利克預(yù)測(cè),,公司的增長(zhǎng)將受益于“高性能計(jì)算能力數(shù)據(jù)中心”,,也就是亞馬遜,、微軟和谷歌所修建的這類中心(她指出,針對(duì)此類云計(jì)算的芯片占到了公司營(yíng)收的約30%至35%),。臺(tái)積電在英特爾這位新客戶那里也有著很大的業(yè)務(wù)潛力,,后者已經(jīng)釋放出信號(hào),它可能會(huì)把自家更多的芯片業(yè)務(wù)外包給臺(tái)積電,。馬利克估計(jì),,該業(yè)務(wù)在未來(lái)五年可能會(huì)為公司帶來(lái)20%的營(yíng)收增幅。公司的股價(jià)依然有上升空間,,當(dāng)前的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為25倍,,低于半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)當(dāng)前29倍的平均水平。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
所有股價(jià)均為截至2020年10月8日的價(jià)格,。
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
It’s been one thing after another for investors in 2020.
First came the novel coronavirus that threw many a shareholder for a loop. Then came a stressful summer in which the global economy moved in fits and starts, petering out from a quick recovery to a slower rebound. Now, with less than a month until the ballots will be counted in a polarizing U.S. election, some are anxious about the outcome, wondering what a Biden presidency or a second Trump term would mean for their stock market holdings.
That anxiety partly reflects the fear of what a disputed election result could do to markets. Such uncertainty would likely mean volatile markets in the short term; indeed, some investors are already buying futures, options, and other derivatives that could pay off if markets swing wildly immediately following Election Day. And others are doing a bit of old-fashioned hand-wringing over whether the candidates’ stances on health care, Big Tech regulation, taxes, and trade could hurt their portfolios down the road.
But for such fretful types, market pros like Matt Benkendorf, chief investment officer of asset manager Vontobel Quality Growth, offer a reassuring reality check. “I think the election impact is generally overexaggerated,” Benkendorf tells Fortune. “Quite frankly, if we go and look back historically, the elections themselves don’t have as tremendous outcomes [on the market] as people believe. It’s the underlying health of the economy and growth there and corporate profit growth, ultimately, that are going to impact stock prices.”
The economy isn’t nearly as healthy as it could be, of course, and there remains plenty of uncertainty about how long it will take for it to recover from the pandemic. Money managers in general have earmarked a few key sectors to steer clear of (among those who spoke with Fortune, for example, most are avoiding financials and energy). And many recommend looking to stocks that have defensive elements to them: Think shares in steadily growing companies that are able to deliver reliable dividend yields.
That’s certainly not to say that the race for the White House means nothing, portfolio-wise. A Biden presidency may mean higher corporate taxes but perhaps increased government spending, while a status quo Republican administration could translate to rising trade tensions but more relaxed taxes—and either result could create winners and losers. In the near term, Saira Malik, head of global equities at Nuveen, believes the biggest risk is volatility from a contested election. But longer term, Malik believes we’ll return to a moderate growth environment akin to the days BC (before coronavirus).
With that in mind, as Malik notes, the question now is “What can you own in either scenario, if you don’t want to place your stake in either camp?” To help investors answer that question, Fortune asked four top portfolio managers to nominate their stocks for a portfolio that’s as election-proof as possible, the kind that might hold up nicely for the next four years or more.
Concentrate on the consumer
One element of the economy that isn’t in the crosshairs for the 2020 election? Consumer spending. Though the pandemic delivered a hit to employment and incomes, and spending on optional activities like travel has plummeted, consumer spending still makes up roughly 70% of the economy.
So portfolio managers are scanning the consumer economy for steadily growing companies that tend to perform well in all environments and can piggyback on new trends in the way we’re spending. Most of these companies fall in the category of consumer staples, Malik explains: “They’re defensive; they’re going to perform well because of the types of goods they produce that are needed in any kind of environment; and you can find some yield there.” (Yield is something investors are particularly eager to capture: With interest rates likely to stick at near zero through at least 2023 regardless of who is in the White House, and the average S&P 500 dividend yield having slipped to 1.7%, significant dividend-payers look even more attractive.)
One such stock Malik favors is Lowe’s (LOW, $171), chief rival of home improvement retailer Home Depot. She likes the stock’s 1.4% yield and the fact that the company is poised to serve a housing market that’s booming once more. With more people investing in their homes “because their workspace can now be their house,” Malik sees Lowe’s as having a “whole host of factors that work in their favor.” In particular, she believes Lowe’s will benefit from a boost in e-commerce as the company upgrades its website; from cost controls as it improves its supply chain; and from the return of its professional crowd as more customers feel comfortable using contractors again. (Malik prefers Lowe’s over Home Depot for its significantly lower P/E.)
Eric Schoenstein, a managing director and portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management, likes PepsiCo (PEP, $138) for its 3% dividend. But he argues the stock isn’t “just yield for yield’s sake.” “They’re producing real growth and revenues and earnings and free cash flow,” he says. Although what PepsiCo calls its “away from home” sales (which make up roughly 35% to 40% of total sales, Schoenstein says) have taken a hit this year owing to closures of venues like baseball stadiums and restaurants, Schoenstein argues that its convenience store and at-home products (including snack-at-home staples like Quaker Oats and Cheetos) have helped to somewhat stem the losses. Moving forward, he anticipates earnings growth in the mid-to-high single digits.
The infrastructure play
David Bianco, the chief investment officer for the Americas at DWS Group, is making the call: “A lot of people think that infrastructure is going to be the play postelection” no matter who wins. There’s bipartisan support for increased investment in infrastructure, and Bianco “wouldn’t doubt there’s some kind of investment package” likely to emerge from Congress. But from Bianco’s perspective, this isn’t your grandpa’s “infrastructure.” The term doesn’t only mean roads and bridges, but also includes the “new economy structure, which to me is an intelligent power grid, 5G communications.”
One sector that Bianco argues is “l(fā)ow-hanging fruit for good return,” even amid political uncertainty: utilities. Not only are utilities “very mature, very reliable income-producing businesses,” he notes, but moving forward he thinks electric companies in particular will play an important role in the rollout of 5G technology: “The electric poles are owned by the utility companies, and they will play a big part in installing 5G cells and will receive some rental income for the space” over time.
Such trends are likely to boost NextEra Energy (NEE, $301), a big player in the power grid and in renewable energy. The stock currently trades at around 30 times forward earnings with a 1.8% dividend yield. NextEra is the parent of utilities Florida Power & Light and Gulf Power, and it has a heavy focus on investing in clean energy. The company has been able to grow under a Republican administration, even without the full-on clean-energy support likely to come with a Democratic President. As NextEra’s CEO James Robo declared on a recent earnings call: “We always position our business to try to win, regardless of the outcome of elections.”
Nuveen’s Malik also says she expects a postelection infrastructure boost. That’s likely good news for Terex (TEX, $25), a producer of aerial work platforms and equipment used for construction. The company has taken a big hit owing to the coronavirus and recession, with revenues falling more than 25% in the past 12 months. It’s also a bit on the expensive side, trading at roughly 35 times trailing earnings from continued operations (the industrial sector average is currently 21). But Malik believes Terex is “a survivor,” and argues an expected rebound in the company’s aerial work platforms division (roughly 60% to 65% of its sales) will be the “main driver” in Terex’s earnings recovery. She highlights Terex’s solid balance sheet, noting that “they have no debt due until 2024 [and] positive free cash flow.” She also commends CEO John Garrison for streamlining the company through the sale of segments like cranes in 2019. “This will be a company that returns to normalized earnings over time and survives the recession,” she argues.
To be sure, more infrastructure and fiscal spending is not a done deal, and many investors are eager to make sure their stocks aren’t fully tethered to more government cash. That’s why Jensen’s Schoenstein likes 3M (MMM, $168), the multifaceted industrial behemoth whose products include components for aircraft, transportation, rails, and commercial vehicles (and, of course, personal protective equipment). “Its individual industries can work hand in hand to help offset each other in tough times but grow together in good times,” Schoenstein argues. He believes 3M’s business model is “a bit more resilient” in that it’s not “solely reliant upon huge stimulus spending” but can still be a beneficiary of those forces. Plus, the stock comes fairly cheap at 19 times forward earnings with a 3.5% dividend yield.
Surprise sectors: Tech and health care
Investors besieged by myriad headlines and political rhetoric may think of these two sectors as among those facing the biggest threats from the election. Health care could see some big changes, for example, from an expansion of a “public option” for insurance to White House efforts to lower drug prices. Tech, meanwhile, faces criticism from lawmakers over its size and market power, along with the growing conviction among some investors that their stock prices have just become too high. But portfolio managers still see plenty of opportunities that should skirt any major headwinds in either space.
DWS’s Bianco, for one, doesn’t “think you’re going to get any difficult legislation” around tech from either party (“There’s competition of Western tech versus Eastern tech, and I don’t think U.S. politicians are going to do things that hobble the ability of Western tech to compete,” he argues).
Still, some Big Tech companies will be more vulnerable than others. That’s why Benkendorf favors Microsoft (MSFT, $211), which is “not the focus of government ire right now on either side of the aisle” compared with peers like Amazon. With a growing and stable subscription software business, a booming cloud platform in Azure, and a recent M&A spree, Benkendorf thinks Microsoft “continues to be undervalued and underappreciated even despite the stock doing well.” At 32 times forward earnings, Microsoft’s valuation is dwarfed by many of its high-flying peers.
Jensen’s Schoenstein is equally convinced Microsoft has “insulation from some of the regulatory concerns,” pointing out the tech giant faced these troubles two decades earlier and lived to tell the tale. He notes Microsoft’s tools and products (including Teams, its business communication platform) are helping people “pivot into this work-from-home environment.” That’s likely to stick around in coming years, which could all translate to low-double-digit earnings growth, Schoenstein estimates.
Health care is another arena in which, as Benkendorf argues, investors may be too focused on the “headline fears”: “People sort of think, ‘Oh my goodness, if you get a Democratic supermajority [then] this and that happens,’” he says. But “if you have great businesses that add tremendous value for customers, I think medical devices is still a relatively safe space.”
One company that fits that bill for Benkendorf is Medtronic (MDT, $108), a medical-device manufacturer he deems a “safe, well-run, steady, predictable grower.” The company makes devices like pacemakers and insulin pumps, and trades at roughly 22 times forward earnings—a discount to the sector at large. Benkendorf says Medtronic is seeing strong growth in its Micra AV device, a miniaturized pacemaker that doesn’t require wires. He also believes the company’s new CEO, Geoff Martha, is “l(fā)ooking to push more autonomy down to the business units, which should ultimately lead to a more nimble organization.” Even if a blue wave washes over the U.S. health care system, Benkendorf argues, “what we had under Obama was not a bad situation for those companies by any means.”
Beyond the U.S.
With election headwinds stateside, some portfolio managers are looking for promising growth outside the U.S. altogether—with an eye to East Asia in particular. To be sure, portfolio managers agree tensions between the U.S. and China won’t disappear, no matter who is in the White House in January. But that’s not stopping them from investing in companies that are strong enough to defend against what Vontobel’s Benkendorf calls “l(fā)egitimate” yet “heated political rhetoric.”
None is quite as formidable as China’s Alibaba Group (BABA, $301). The massive retailer has an Amazon-like ingrained foothold among China’s consumers, but it trades at roughly 29 times forward earnings, compared with nearly 89 for Amazon. Nuveen’s Malik believes Alibaba has “an attractive valuation, strong ad growth in e-commerce,” yet is “l(fā)ess levered to the economy” than other retailers; she also likes that it’s moving into local supermarket services.
Benkendorf, meanwhile, is bullish about the upcoming IPO of fintech Ant Group, of which Alibaba owns roughly 33%, which he says, “should crystallize an additional piece of value within [Alibaba’s] share price.” And rivalry between the U.S. and China may pose less of a threat to Alibaba than to other companies, because Alibaba is a “very domestically focused business, and China has a very deep domestic market,” Benkendorf notes.
Elsewhere in Asia, Japan-based Ibiden, which makes printed circuit boards and integrated circuit packaging, is a lesser-known but equally appealing name. Malik notes the “next generation CPU market is in high demand from Intel and AMD,” and argues Ibiden is “the leader” in packaging—a space with high barriers to entry. She expects a “multiyear period of growth as Ibiden expands capacity to meet volume demands,” which should translate into higher profit margins.
Malik also favors Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) (ADR: TSM, $88), the world’s largest contract chipmaker. She likes TSMC in particular because it’s benefiting from the global buildout in 5G. Smartphones make up roughly half the chipmaker’s business, Malik notes, and “as Apple ramps up for the iPhone 12, they benefit.” TSMC makes complicated, advanced products that pose huge barriers to entry for competitors. And Malik predicts its growth will be driven by “high-performance computing for data centers” of the kind being built by Amazon, Microsoft, and Google (chips for such cloud computing account for roughly 30% to 35% of revenues, she notes). TSMC also has a major potential new customer in Intel, which has signaled that it might subcontract more of its own chips to TSMC. Malik estimates that business could add 20% in incremental revenue to the company over the next five years. The stock has room to run, trading at 25 times forward earnings—below the current semiconductor industry average at 29.
All stock prices calculated as of Oct. 8, 2020.