如果喬?拜登上任,,對經(jīng)濟有何影響?
隨著美國總統(tǒng)大選的投票日臨近,,每個人腦中都會想到這個問題,。根據(jù)政治傾向不同,有些人擔(dān)心,,有些人則希望這位前副總統(tǒng)實施激進的左傾改革,。其他有些人希望,也有人擔(dān)心他找麻煩,。
美國商務(wù)部的前部長彭妮?普利茨克曾經(jīng)在奧巴馬政府任職,,比大多數(shù)人更了解拜登的議程。身為拜登的高級經(jīng)濟顧問之一,,普利茨克相當(dāng)有話語權(quán),。此外,普利茨克還是凱悅酒店家族繼承人,、微軟董事會成員,、芝加哥PSP Partners投資公司創(chuàng)始人,,能夠精準(zhǔn)把握商業(yè)和投資者受到的影響。
《財富》雜志采訪了普利茨克,,請她分享對11月后經(jīng)濟前景的看法,。她認(rèn)為,除非處理好新冠病毒危機,,否則不可能實現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇,。以下是她對未來幾個月的期望。為了簡明起見,,對話經(jīng)過了編輯和精簡,。
《財富》:11月會發(fā)生什么?
佩妮?普里茨克:我支持拜登-賀錦麗組合,,這不是什么秘密,。拜登組合確定性更高也更穩(wěn)定。他對解決新冠危機制定了計劃,,對推動經(jīng)濟的想法也很棒,。從根本上說,我相信喬?拜登會是一位稱職的總統(tǒng),。他打算創(chuàng)造數(shù)百萬個高薪工作,。高盛和穆迪的報告稱,拜登的經(jīng)濟計劃將比唐納德?特朗普多創(chuàng)造700多萬個就業(yè)機會,。
特朗普總統(tǒng)最近在推特(Twitter)上說,,投票給民主黨就是支持大規(guī)模增稅、經(jīng)濟封鎖,,還會導(dǎo)致失業(yè),。誰說得對?
特朗普沒有提及自己的執(zhí)政情況,。他想讓我們在評價他時把橄欖球比賽當(dāng)作只有三個賽季,,而不是四個賽季。過去六個月里,,聯(lián)邦政府出現(xiàn)了史上最嚴(yán)重的管理不善,。美國損失了上千萬個工作崗位。由于并未推出有效的疫情應(yīng)對策略,,而且對專家意見也置若罔聞,,結(jié)果是數(shù)百萬美國人失業(yè)。
失去的崗位還能夠恢復(fù)么,?
有些可能不行,,其他應(yīng)該還有機會。請記住,大衰退后創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)機會中,,有25%在休閑和酒店領(lǐng)域,。人們渴望旅行。但人們要多了解數(shù)字領(lǐng)域的知識,,提升相關(guān)素質(zhì)。如果要繼續(xù)創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機會,,必須確保人們做好準(zhǔn)備,。
拜登施政會有何不同?
拜登將在研發(fā)等重要領(lǐng)域加大投資,。目前美國研發(fā)投入接近GDP的0.6%,,降至1955年以來最低水平。如果在研發(fā)上投入如此少,,如何在全球范圍內(nèi)競爭并確保領(lǐng)先地位,?我們要成為人工智能、量子,、電動汽車,、清潔能源、5G和寬帶領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者,。這些都是未來的技術(shù),,也是當(dāng)下需要投入的技術(shù)。
貿(mào)易摩擦如何處理,?
跟中國的貿(mào)易摩擦并未奏效,。特朗普承諾減少貿(mào)易逆差,然而今年夏天美國對中國和墨西哥的國際貿(mào)易逆差創(chuàng)下歷史新高,。這些是喬?拜登將要面對的問題,。
美國商務(wù)部接替你擔(dān)任部長的羅斯對流行的中國應(yīng)用程序TikTok和微信發(fā)布禁令。白宮稱這些軟件對國家安全造成威脅,。你建議如何處理,?
國家安全必須保護,問題是怎么做,?直接禁止可能現(xiàn)在感覺不錯,,但推演接下來的五六步再看看。對現(xiàn)在使用TikTok的1億用戶來說,,有什么影響,?關(guān)鍵在于制定計劃實現(xiàn)想要的結(jié)果。
你認(rèn)為有沒有比完全禁止更好的方法,?
有更細致的方法,。肯定無法一夜就實現(xiàn),需要結(jié)合強有力的舉措和外交手段,。需要談判,。其實很復(fù)雜,我認(rèn)為可以做到兩全其美,。只是需要能夠付諸實施的政府,。
身為微軟董事會成員,你對甲骨文和沃爾瑪突然加入收購TikTok,,還有可能獲勝有沒有感覺失望,?
我真沒法發(fā)表評論。感謝你的詢問,。
面對大選的不確定性和可能出現(xiàn)的新一波疫情,,你想跟讀者分享什么建議?
我給自己的建議是,,首先確保當(dāng)前實際掌握的別出問題,。確保你掌管的企業(yè)資本充足,可以順利度過波動?,F(xiàn)在,,我們身處極度不確定的時期。我預(yù)測疫情還會持續(xù)一段時間,。同時要接受新的想法,。世界正在以前所未有的速度利用新技術(shù)。要充分抓住這個機會,。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
如果喬?拜登上任,,對經(jīng)濟有何影響?
隨著美國總統(tǒng)大選的投票日臨近,,每個人腦中都會想到這個問題,。根據(jù)政治傾向不同,有些人擔(dān)心,,有些人則希望這位前副總統(tǒng)實施激進的左傾改革,。其他有些人希望,也有人擔(dān)心他找麻煩,。
美國商務(wù)部的前部長彭妮?普利茨克曾經(jīng)在奧巴馬政府任職,,比大多數(shù)人更了解拜登的議程。身為拜登的高級經(jīng)濟顧問之一,,普利茨克相當(dāng)有話語權(quán),。此外,普利茨克還是凱悅酒店家族繼承人,、微軟董事會成員,、芝加哥PSP Partners投資公司創(chuàng)始人,,能夠精準(zhǔn)把握商業(yè)和投資者受到的影響。
《財富》雜志采訪了普利茨克,,請她分享對11月后經(jīng)濟前景的看法,。她認(rèn)為,除非處理好新冠病毒危機,,否則不可能實現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇,。以下是她對未來幾個月的期望。為了簡明起見,,對話經(jīng)過了編輯和精簡,。
《財富》:11月會發(fā)生什么?
佩妮?普里茨克:我支持拜登-賀錦麗組合,,這不是什么秘密。拜登組合確定性更高也更穩(wěn)定,。他對解決新冠危機制定了計劃,,對推動經(jīng)濟的想法也很棒。從根本上說,,我相信喬?拜登會是一位稱職的總統(tǒng),。他打算創(chuàng)造數(shù)百萬個高薪工作。高盛和穆迪的報告稱,,拜登的經(jīng)濟計劃將比唐納德?特朗普多創(chuàng)造700多萬個就業(yè)機會,。
特朗普總統(tǒng)最近在推特(Twitter)上說,投票給民主黨就是支持大規(guī)模增稅,、經(jīng)濟封鎖,,還會導(dǎo)致失業(yè)。誰說得對,?
特朗普沒有提及自己的執(zhí)政情況,。他想讓我們在評價他時把橄欖球比賽當(dāng)作只有三個賽季,而不是四個賽季,。過去六個月里,,聯(lián)邦政府出現(xiàn)了史上最嚴(yán)重的管理不善。美國損失了上千萬個工作崗位,。由于并未推出有效的疫情應(yīng)對策略,,而且對專家意見也置若罔聞,結(jié)果是數(shù)百萬美國人失業(yè),。
失去的崗位還能夠恢復(fù)么,?
有些可能不行,其他應(yīng)該還有機會,。請記住,,大衰退后創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)機會中,,有25%在休閑和酒店領(lǐng)域。人們渴望旅行,。但人們要多了解數(shù)字領(lǐng)域的知識,,提升相關(guān)素質(zhì)。如果要繼續(xù)創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機會,,必須確保人們做好準(zhǔn)備,。
拜登施政會有何不同?
拜登將在研發(fā)等重要領(lǐng)域加大投資,。目前美國研發(fā)投入接近GDP的0.6%,,降至1955年以來最低水平。如果在研發(fā)上投入如此少,,如何在全球范圍內(nèi)競爭并確保領(lǐng)先地位,?我們要成為人工智能、量子,、電動汽車,、清潔能源、5G和寬帶領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者,。這些都是未來的技術(shù),,也是當(dāng)下需要投入的技術(shù)。
貿(mào)易摩擦如何處理,?
跟中國的貿(mào)易摩擦并未奏效,。特朗普承諾減少貿(mào)易逆差,然而今年夏天美國對中國和墨西哥的國際貿(mào)易逆差創(chuàng)下歷史新高,。這些是喬?拜登將要面對的問題,。
美國商務(wù)部接替你擔(dān)任部長的羅斯對流行的中國應(yīng)用程序TikTok和微信發(fā)布禁令。白宮稱這些軟件對國家安全造成威脅,。你建議如何處理,?
國家安全必須保護,問題是怎么做,?直接禁止可能現(xiàn)在感覺不錯,,但推演接下來的五六步再看看。對現(xiàn)在使用TikTok的1億用戶來說,,有什么影響,?關(guān)鍵在于制定計劃實現(xiàn)想要的結(jié)果。
你認(rèn)為有沒有比完全禁止更好的方法,?
有更細致的方法,。肯定無法一夜就實現(xiàn),,需要結(jié)合強有力的舉措和外交手段,。需要談判,。其實很復(fù)雜,我認(rèn)為可以做到兩全其美,。只是需要能夠付諸實施的政府,。
身為微軟董事會成員,你對甲骨文和沃爾瑪突然加入收購TikTok,,還有可能獲勝有沒有感覺失望,?
我真沒法發(fā)表評論。感謝你的詢問,。
面對大選的不確定性和可能出現(xiàn)的新一波疫情,你想跟讀者分享什么建議,?
我給自己的建議是,,首先確保當(dāng)前實際掌握的別出問題。確保你掌管的企業(yè)資本充足,,可以順利度過波動?,F(xiàn)在,,我們身處極度不確定的時期。我預(yù)測疫情還會持續(xù)一段時間,。同時要接受新的想法,。世界正在以前所未有的速度利用新技術(shù),。要充分抓住這個機會。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
What would a Joe Biden presidency mean for the economy?
It’s a question that hangs on everyone’s mind as poll day approaches. Some people fear—or hope, depending on political inclinations—the former vice president will make radical leftward changes. Others wish—or worry—he’ll not rock the boat.
Penny Pritzker, former secretary of commerce under Obama, has a closer view than most into Biden’s agenda. As one of his top economic advisers, Pritzker is uniquely situated to weigh in. Also, as a scion of the Hyatt Hotels family fortune, Microsoft board member, and founder of the Chicago-based PSP Partners investment firm, Pritzker has a nonpareil grasp on the implications for business and investors.
Fortune asked Pritzker to share her thoughts about the economic outlook, post-November. She believes recovery can’t happen until the COVID-19 crisis is effectively handled. Here is what she expects in the months ahead. The conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
Fortune: What’s going to happen in November?
Penny Pritzker: It’s no secret I'm on the Biden-Harris team. Biden represents greater certainty and stability. He has a plan to address the COVID crisis. He’s got a terrific economic plan. I fundamentally believe Joe Biden is a good jobs President. He has a plan to create millions of good-paying jobs. Reports from Goldman Sachs and Moody's say Biden's economic plan will create more than 7 million more jobs than Donald Trump.
President Trump recently tweeted that a vote for the Democrats is a vote for massive tax increases, economics shutdowns, and job losses. Who's right?
Donald Trump is not running on his track record. He wants us to judge him as if the football game only has three quarters, not four quarters. We've had the worst federal mismanagement in our history over the last six months. That’s cost us tens of millions of jobs. By not having an effective COVID strategy and by being dismissive of the experts, we're stuck in a situation where millions of Americans are out of work.
Are the lost jobs ever coming back?
Some may not. Others will, for sure. Remember, 25% of the jobs created after the Great Recession were in leisure and hospitality. People are itching to travel. But people are going to need to be more digitally astute and better trained. If we’re going to continue to create jobs, we have to make sure that our people are prepared for them.
What will Biden do differently?
Biden will invest in important things, like R&D. Our R&D investment is near 0.6% of GDP, which is the lowest level since 1955. How are we expected to compete globally, and be in the lead, if we're spending that little on R&D? We need to be a leader in A.I., in quantum, electric vehicles, clean energy, 5G, and broadband. These are the technologies of the future, but they're also the technologies of now.
What about the trade war?
The trade war with China has not worked. Trump promised to reduce our trade deficit, but instead our global trade deficit in goods with China and with Mexico hit all-time highs this summer. These are the things Joe Biden will stand up against.
Your successor at the Commerce Department, Secretary Ross, is issuing bans on popular Chinese apps TikTok and WeChat. The White House says they are national security threats. How would you recommend handling this predicament?
We have to protect our national security—the question is, how? A ban may feel good in the moment, but let's play this out five or six plays ahead. How will this work for the 100 million people using TikTok today? Having a plan to achieve your desired outcome is critical.
And you think there are better ways than an outright ban?
There are more nuanced approaches. It's not something that can be done overnight. It requires a combination of forceful behavior and diplomacy. It requires negotiation. It's complicated, but I think we can achieve both. But you need a government that's capable of doing that.
As a board member of Microsoft, were you disappointed that Oracle and Walmart swooped in as the likely winners of the TikTok acquisition contest?
I really can't comment on that. But I appreciate you asking.
With the uncertainty of an election looming alongside fears of new waves of coronavirus infections, what parting words of advice might you share with our readers?
The advice I try to give myself is first make sure you take care of what you've got. Make sure the businesses you own are well capitalized and can survive the volatility. Right now, we're in a period of extreme uncertainty. I predict that will continue for a while until we get through this pandemic. Also, be open to new ideas. The world is adopting technology at a pace it has never done before. Make sure you're taking advantage of those opportunities.