比特幣迎來了新的里程碑,,其價(jià)格在11月19日突破18,000美元大關(guān),自今年3月以來,,這種加密貨幣的價(jià)格上漲了近400%,。比特幣價(jià)格的本輪上漲令人印象深刻,但其中也有一些讓人似曾相識(shí)的感覺:三年前的這個(gè)時(shí)候,,比特幣價(jià)格曾經(jīng)達(dá)到20,000美元,,但幾周后,隨著2017年加密貨幣泡沫的突然破滅,,比特幣價(jià)格暴跌,。如今,20,000美元大關(guān)近在咫尺,,而比特幣很有可能在幾周內(nèi)超過這個(gè)水平,。加密貨幣研究公司Messari的創(chuàng)始人雷恩·希爾基斯告訴我,“有90%的把握比特幣的價(jià)格會(huì)在年底之前達(dá)到20,000美元,將突破多個(gè)關(guān)鍵阻力位,?!毕柣惯€提到比特幣最近受到PayPal和機(jī)構(gòu)投資者的歡迎。他認(rèn)為如果在2021年,,更多基金經(jīng)理涉足加密貨幣領(lǐng)域,,到明年1月,比特幣的價(jià)格還會(huì)繼續(xù)上漲,。許多基金經(jīng)理的年終業(yè)績報(bào)酬已經(jīng)十拿九穩(wěn),。
當(dāng)前的價(jià)格上漲驗(yàn)證了長期看好加密貨幣的投資者的眼光,但也提出了一個(gè)問題:它是否會(huì)像上一次一樣以悲劇告終,?對(duì)于這個(gè)問題,,簡單的答案是價(jià)格回調(diào)是不可避免的,任何資產(chǎn)升值400%必定會(huì)迎來調(diào)整,,但這一次并不會(huì)像上次那么嚴(yán)重,。比特幣發(fā)展過程的一個(gè)特征是波動(dòng)性始終存在但日益減少。在2011年第一次比特幣泡沫中,,其價(jià)格上漲至30美元,,但幾個(gè)月后卻下跌到2美元。在那之后,,比特幣的價(jià)格曾經(jīng)多次暴漲和暴跌,,卻都沒有前一次那么嚴(yán)重,這意味著下一次暴跌可能使比特幣的價(jià)格降至8,000美元,,而不是2,000美元,。
2020年的另外一個(gè)主要區(qū)別在于,當(dāng)前的牛市基礎(chǔ)更牢固,。2017年的比特幣泡沫來自所謂的首次代幣發(fā)售,,當(dāng)時(shí)無良商人把基本毫無價(jià)值的新加密貨幣,出售給了貪婪但容易受騙的公眾,,然后把獲取的利潤用來投資比特幣,。所以泡沫破滅不足為奇。這一次,,更嚴(yán)格的監(jiān)管意味著攪動(dòng)市場的“傻瓜資金”減少,,另外,媒體被新冠疫情,、政治話題和股市暴漲分散了注意力,,因此對(duì)比特幣價(jià)格上漲的炒作減少了很多。
2020年,,由于持有比特幣的人越來越多,,它的基礎(chǔ)也變得更加牢固,。一家名為Grayscale的公司宣傳比特幣可以替代黃金,取得了巨大成功,,以股份的形式把比特幣賣給了數(shù)百萬千禧一代投資者,。另外,從哈佛大學(xué)(Harvard University)到億萬富翁保羅·都鐸·瓊斯等大型機(jī)構(gòu)投資者,,也在增持加密貨幣,,而Square等上市公司則大量買進(jìn)比特幣以充實(shí)其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。
這與2017年形成了鮮明對(duì)比,。當(dāng)時(shí),,備受尊敬的投資者幾乎都在觀望,而沃倫·巴菲特和摩根大通(JP Morgan)的首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙等金融界傳奇人物則用“老鼠藥”和“欺詐”這種字眼來貶低比特幣,。今天,,對(duì)比特幣懷疑的聲音已經(jīng)全部消失。雖然戴蒙在本周說比特幣“不合他的口味”,,但他的銀行現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)開始與加密貨幣巨頭Coinbase合作提供相關(guān)服務(wù),。
這意味著雖然比特幣價(jià)格到20,000美元的時(shí)代可能只是曇花一現(xiàn),但這種加密貨幣的地位將變得比以前更加牢固,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
比特幣迎來了新的里程碑,,其價(jià)格在11月19日突破18,000美元大關(guān),自今年3月以來,,這種加密貨幣的價(jià)格上漲了近400%。比特幣價(jià)格的本輪上漲令人印象深刻,,但其中也有一些讓人似曾相識(shí)的感覺:三年前的這個(gè)時(shí)候,,比特幣價(jià)格曾經(jīng)達(dá)到20,000美元,但幾周后,,隨著2017年加密貨幣泡沫的突然破滅,,比特幣價(jià)格暴跌。如今,,20,000美元大關(guān)近在咫尺,,而比特幣很有可能在幾周內(nèi)超過這個(gè)水平。加密貨幣研究公司Messari的創(chuàng)始人雷恩·希爾基斯告訴我,,“有90%的把握比特幣的價(jià)格會(huì)在年底之前達(dá)到20,000美元,,將突破多個(gè)關(guān)鍵阻力位?!毕柣惯€提到比特幣最近受到PayPal和機(jī)構(gòu)投資者的歡迎,。他認(rèn)為如果在2021年,更多基金經(jīng)理涉足加密貨幣領(lǐng)域,,到明年1月,,比特幣的價(jià)格還會(huì)繼續(xù)上漲,。許多基金經(jīng)理的年終業(yè)績報(bào)酬已經(jīng)十拿九穩(wěn)。
當(dāng)前的價(jià)格上漲驗(yàn)證了長期看好加密貨幣的投資者的眼光,,但也提出了一個(gè)問題:它是否會(huì)像上一次一樣以悲劇告終,?對(duì)于這個(gè)問題,簡單的答案是價(jià)格回調(diào)是不可避免的,,任何資產(chǎn)升值400%必定會(huì)迎來調(diào)整,,但這一次并不會(huì)像上次那么嚴(yán)重。比特幣發(fā)展過程的一個(gè)特征是波動(dòng)性始終存在但日益減少,。在2011年第一次比特幣泡沫中,,其價(jià)格上漲至30美元,但幾個(gè)月后卻下跌到2美元,。在那之后,,比特幣的價(jià)格曾經(jīng)多次暴漲和暴跌,卻都沒有前一次那么嚴(yán)重,,這意味著下一次暴跌可能使比特幣的價(jià)格降至8,000美元,,而不是2,000美元。
2020年的另外一個(gè)主要區(qū)別在于,,當(dāng)前的牛市基礎(chǔ)更牢固,。2017年的比特幣泡沫來自所謂的首次代幣發(fā)售,當(dāng)時(shí)無良商人把基本毫無價(jià)值的新加密貨幣,,出售給了貪婪但容易受騙的公眾,,然后把獲取的利潤用來投資比特幣。所以泡沫破滅不足為奇,。這一次,,更嚴(yán)格的監(jiān)管意味著攪動(dòng)市場的“傻瓜資金”減少,另外,,媒體被新冠疫情,、政治話題和股市暴漲分散了注意力,因此對(duì)比特幣價(jià)格上漲的炒作減少了很多,。
2020年,,由于持有比特幣的人越來越多,它的基礎(chǔ)也變得更加牢固,。一家名為Grayscale的公司宣傳比特幣可以替代黃金,,取得了巨大成功,以股份的形式把比特幣賣給了數(shù)百萬千禧一代投資者,。另外,,從哈佛大學(xué)(Harvard University)到億萬富翁保羅·都鐸·瓊斯等大型機(jī)構(gòu)投資者,也在增持加密貨幣,,而Square等上市公司則大量買進(jìn)比特幣以充實(shí)其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表,。
這與2017年形成了鮮明對(duì)比,。當(dāng)時(shí),備受尊敬的投資者幾乎都在觀望,,而沃倫·巴菲特和摩根大通(JP Morgan)的首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙等金融界傳奇人物則用“老鼠藥”和“欺詐”這種字眼來貶低比特幣,。今天,對(duì)比特幣懷疑的聲音已經(jīng)全部消失,。雖然戴蒙在本周說比特幣“不合他的口味”,,但他的銀行現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)開始與加密貨幣巨頭Coinbase合作提供相關(guān)服務(wù)。
這意味著雖然比特幣價(jià)格到20,000美元的時(shí)代可能只是曇花一現(xiàn),,但這種加密貨幣的地位將變得比以前更加牢固,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Good morning. The price of Bitcoin crossed the $18,000 mark on November 19, the latest in a series of milestones that has seen the cryptocurrency's price rise by nearly 400% since March. The current rally is impressive, but also has an element of déjà vu: It was this time three years ago that Bitcoin brushed $20,000, only to crash spectacularly weeks later amid a broader popping of the 2017 cryptocurrency bubble. Now, the $20,000 mark is within reach again and, chances are, Bitcoin will eclipse it in the coming weeks if not sooner. Ryan Selkis, the founder of crypto research firm Messari tells me he’s “90% confident we'll see $20k by year end, [as it’s] blown through a number of key resistance levels. " Selkis also cites Bitcoin’s recent embrace by PayPal and institutional investors, and thinks the price could soar even higher in January if more fund managers, many of whom are safely locking in their year-end performance fees, decide to dip their toes in crypto in 2021.
The current rally is validation for longtime crypto bulls, but also raises the question of whether, like last time, this will end in tears. The short answer is that a collapse is all but inevitable—assets that go up 400% are due for a correction—but that it won’t be as severe as last time. The history of Bitcoin has been defined by constant but decreasing volatility. During its first big bubble in 2011, the cryptocurrency soared to $30 only to fall to $2 months later. Since then, it’s soared and swooned numerous times but always less dramatically than before, meaning the next crash could well take the price to $8,000 but not $2,000.
The other big difference from 2020 is that the current bull market is built upon more solid foundations. In 2017, the bubble was inflated by so-called Initial Coin Offerings, which saw hucksters sell mostly worthless new currencies to a greedy and gullible public, and then plow the profits back into Bitcoin. Little wonder things blew up. This time around, tighter regulation means there's less dumb money sloshing around, while the media—distracted by COVID, politics and a roaring stock market—has been more subdued in hyping the rally.
Bitcoin’s foundations are also more firm in 2020 because it is owned by more people. A company called Grayscale has been wildly successful in pitching Bitcoin as an alternative to gold, and selling it to millions of millennial investors in the form of shares. Meanwhile, major institutional investors ranging from Harvard University to billionaire Paul Tudor Jones have been adding crypto to their portfolios, while public companies like Square are gobbling up Bitcoin to add to their balance sheets.
That's a far cry from 2017, when respectable investors mostly watched from the sidelines while financial sages like Warren Buffett and JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon decried Bitcoin with terms like “rat poison” and “fraud.” Today, the skeptics have all but vanished—though Dimon, whose bank now provides services with crypto giant Coinbase, this week said Bitcoin is “not his cup of tea.”
All of this means that, while the coming era of $20,000 Bitcoin might be temporary, the cryptocurrency is, more than ever before, here to stay.