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高盛:這只股票將成本年最??萍脊?

Anne Sraders
2021-02-15

今年,,“五巨頭”其中之一的股價(jià)或許會(huì)漲得更厲害。

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谷歌本身就處于“五巨頭”中不可撼動(dòng)的位置,也是疫情中的一個(gè)贏家,。

2020年,,美國(guó)科技五巨頭(即臉書、亞馬遜,、蘋果,、微軟和谷歌母公司Alphabet)在美股市場(chǎng)上一枝獨(dú)秀,業(yè)績(jī)搶眼,。今年,,“五巨頭”其中之一的股價(jià)或許會(huì)漲得更厲害。

至少,,高盛的一位理財(cái)經(jīng)理是這樣認(rèn)為的。

高盛資產(chǎn)管理公司科技機(jī)會(huì)基金會(huì)的常務(wù)董事,、理財(cái)經(jīng)理布魯克·戴恩對(duì)《財(cái)富》表示:“我認(rèn)為,,谷歌有望成為今年表現(xiàn)最好的超大型股?!?/p>

谷歌本身就處于“五巨頭”中不可撼動(dòng)的位置,,它也是疫情中的一個(gè)贏家,去年它的回報(bào)率超過了30%,。戴恩認(rèn)為,,在“后疫情時(shí)代”,谷歌的股票會(huì)顯得更有吸引力,。

特別是2021年,,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)廣告業(yè)務(wù)將迎來再次復(fù)蘇,谷歌在這上面處于非常有利的位置,?!拔覀冋J(rèn)為,去年一些因疫情停擺的重要行業(yè),,今年會(huì)回歸市場(chǎng),,并且重新開始支出。那么,,企業(yè)會(huì)出現(xiàn)哪種支出模式,?他們會(huì)如何利用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)廣告來推動(dòng)需求?人們又會(huì)首先在哪個(gè)網(wǎng)站上搜索,?想清楚這些問題,,你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),2021年,,搜索業(yè)務(wù)將會(huì)加速發(fā)展,?!?/p>

戴恩認(rèn)為,隨著酒店,、會(huì)展,、旅游等行業(yè)的回歸,以及隨著“所有人開始接種疫苗,,和經(jīng)濟(jì)的重新開放”,,谷歌“在核心的搜索市場(chǎng)上將得到雙重刺激,應(yīng)該會(huì)促進(jìn)業(yè)務(wù)的發(fā)展,?!?/p>

這些也符合戴恩的2021年投資戰(zhàn)略,即“在周期性復(fù)蘇和‘后疫苗時(shí)期’,,那找那些能夠在基本面中看到真正加速?gòu)?fù)蘇跡象的公司,,同時(shí)我們也不要為那些基本面付出太多成本?!蹦壳癆lphabet的預(yù)期市盈率大約為31倍,,價(jià)碼不可謂不高,但還是比其他一些科技巨頭便宜得多,。

不過戴恩同時(shí)指出:“雖然我很喜歡谷歌,,但我們對(duì)這些大型科技公司的持股基本上已經(jīng)越來越少了?!北M管去年大型科技公司的表現(xiàn)非常亮眼,。

除了部分行業(yè)回歸帶來的廣告收入,戴恩認(rèn)為,,谷歌最近宣布將提供更加透明的云服務(wù),,這也是一個(gè)積極的跡象。(他解釋道:“企業(yè)一般不愿給予更高的透明度,,除非他們非常自信,,認(rèn)為自己講的故事是一個(gè)好故事?!保?/p>

當(dāng)然,,隨著監(jiān)管力度的加大,谷歌今年也會(huì)面臨不少阻力(谷歌最近遭到了自去年秋天以來的第三次反壟斷訴訟),。一些華爾街人士預(yù)計(jì),,隨著民主黨力量在國(guó)會(huì)占據(jù)上風(fēng),國(guó)會(huì)很可能會(huì)加強(qiáng)對(duì)科技五巨頭的審查,。

不過戴恩認(rèn)為,,這些威脅并不嚴(yán)重:“看看以前的訴訟路徑,你就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),這些問題都不是結(jié)構(gòu)性的,,也不會(huì)影響讓谷歌提高收入,、利潤(rùn)和自由現(xiàn)金流的經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)。我只是認(rèn)為,,谷歌的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要比市場(chǎng)上的其他玩家小一些,。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:樸成奎

谷歌本身就處于“五巨頭”中不可撼動(dòng)的位置,,也是疫情中的一個(gè)贏家,。

2020年,美國(guó)科技五巨頭(即臉書,、亞馬遜,、蘋果、微軟和谷歌母公司Alphabet)在美股市場(chǎng)上一枝獨(dú)秀,,業(yè)績(jī)搶眼,。今年,“五巨頭”其中之一的股價(jià)或許會(huì)漲得更厲害,。

至少,,高盛的一位理財(cái)經(jīng)理是這樣認(rèn)為的。

高盛資產(chǎn)管理公司科技機(jī)會(huì)基金會(huì)的常務(wù)董事,、理財(cái)經(jīng)理布魯克·戴恩對(duì)《財(cái)富》表示:“我認(rèn)為,谷歌有望成為今年表現(xiàn)最好的超大型股,?!?/p>

谷歌本身就處于“五巨頭”中不可撼動(dòng)的位置,它也是疫情中的一個(gè)贏家,,去年它的回報(bào)率超過了30%,。戴恩認(rèn)為,在“后疫情時(shí)代”,,谷歌的股票會(huì)顯得更有吸引力,。

特別是2021年,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)廣告業(yè)務(wù)將迎來再次復(fù)蘇,,谷歌在這上面處于非常有利的位置,。“我們認(rèn)為,,去年一些因疫情停擺的重要行業(yè),,今年會(huì)回歸市場(chǎng),并且重新開始支出,。那么,,企業(yè)會(huì)出現(xiàn)哪種支出模式?他們會(huì)如何利用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)廣告來推動(dòng)需求?人們又會(huì)首先在哪個(gè)網(wǎng)站上搜索,?想清楚這些問題,,你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),2021年,,搜索業(yè)務(wù)將會(huì)加速發(fā)展,。”

戴恩認(rèn)為,,隨著酒店,、會(huì)展、旅游等行業(yè)的回歸,,以及隨著“所有人開始接種疫苗,,和經(jīng)濟(jì)的重新開放”,谷歌“在核心的搜索市場(chǎng)上將得到雙重刺激,,應(yīng)該會(huì)促進(jìn)業(yè)務(wù)的發(fā)展,。”

這些也符合戴恩的2021年投資戰(zhàn)略,,即“在周期性復(fù)蘇和‘后疫苗時(shí)期’,,那找那些能夠在基本面中看到真正加速?gòu)?fù)蘇跡象的公司,同時(shí)我們也不要為那些基本面付出太多成本,?!蹦壳癆lphabet的預(yù)期市盈率大約為31倍,價(jià)碼不可謂不高,,但還是比其他一些科技巨頭便宜得多,。

不過戴恩同時(shí)指出:“雖然我很喜歡谷歌,但我們對(duì)這些大型科技公司的持股基本上已經(jīng)越來越少了,?!北M管去年大型科技公司的表現(xiàn)非常亮眼。

除了部分行業(yè)回歸帶來的廣告收入,,戴恩認(rèn)為,,谷歌最近宣布將提供更加透明的云服務(wù),這也是一個(gè)積極的跡象,。(他解釋道:“企業(yè)一般不愿給予更高的透明度,,除非他們非常自信,認(rèn)為自己講的故事是一個(gè)好故事,?!保?/p>

當(dāng)然,隨著監(jiān)管力度的加大,,谷歌今年也會(huì)面臨不少阻力(谷歌最近遭到了自去年秋天以來的第三次反壟斷訴訟),。一些華爾街人士預(yù)計(jì),,隨著民主黨力量在國(guó)會(huì)占據(jù)上風(fēng),國(guó)會(huì)很可能會(huì)加強(qiáng)對(duì)科技五巨頭的審查,。

不過戴恩認(rèn)為,,這些威脅并不嚴(yán)重:“看看以前的訴訟路徑,你就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),,這些問題都不是結(jié)構(gòu)性的,,也不會(huì)影響讓谷歌提高收入、利潤(rùn)和自由現(xiàn)金流的經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ),。我只是認(rèn)為,,谷歌的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要比市場(chǎng)上的其他玩家小一些?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:樸成奎

The FAAMG stocks as a group had a roaring 2020, but one of those Big Tech names might just rise above the pack this year.

At least, that's what one Goldman Sachs portfolio manager is betting.

"Google I think is poised to be the best performing of those very mega cap large names," Brook Dane, a managing director and portfolio manager of the Technology Opportunities Fund at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, tells Fortune.

Despite Google's venerable status among the FAAMGs—now categorized as Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet (Google's parent company)—as a winner of the pandemic (not to mention its over 30% return last year), Goldman's Dane thinks the stock still looks attractive as, surprisingly, a post-pandemic play.

In particular he argues Google is poised to benefit as internet advertising picks up again in 2021. "In our minds, you’re going to see some of the big sectors that had been absent the market because of the pandemic—so think travel, hospitality, live events—those businesses will return to the marketplace and return to spending," says Dane. "When you also think about how companies approach their spending patterns and how they use internet advertising to drive demand, one of the first things people return to is search, and you would expect search businesses to accelerate as we move through 2021."

Indeed, he sees a scenario where search improves as hospitality, live events, and travel return as "everyone starts to get vaccinated and the economy reopens," which should give Google a "double-kicker in their core search market that should start to drive business."

That all fits into Dane's strategy for 2021 of "looking for names where we think as we get to more of a cyclical recovery, post-vaccine, you could see real acceleration in the fundamentals and we’re not being asked to pay too much for those fundamentals," Dane says. Currently Alphabet is trading at around 31 times forward earnings, a heady price tag yet much less expensive than some of its tech peers.

Indeed, Dane notes "notwithstanding my love for Google, we’ve moved to an increasingly underweight position in those [mega cap] names" coming off such a big year for the class.

But apart from beleaguered businesses boosting their ad spend once more, Dane thinks Google's recent announcement they will be more transparent around their cloud business (GCP) is a positive sign ("Companies don’t give more transparency unless they’re very confident the story they’re about to tell is a good story," he says).

To be sure, Google is facing plenty of headwinds this year as regulatory issues heat up (the company was recently slapped with its third antitrust lawsuit since last fall). And some on the Street expect the new narrowly Democrat-controlled Congress to up the scrutiny on the FAAMG names moving forward.

But Dane for one largely brushes those threats off: "When you look at ... where the first path of the [law]suits have been, it’s nothing that's structural and would impair the economics from how Google drives revenues, profit, and free cash flows," Dane suggests. "I just think Google is less at risk than the other players out there."

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