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四分之一的美國(guó)大學(xué)將關(guān)門大吉

Lance Lambert
2021-03-10

整個(gè)高等教育領(lǐng)域最終的“大洗牌”正在逐漸逼近。

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美國(guó)高等教育存在著嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題:學(xué)費(fèi)越來(lái)越貴,,畢業(yè)率和就業(yè)前景卻停滯不前甚至日漸灰暗,。整個(gè)高等教育領(lǐng)域最終的“大洗牌”正在逐漸逼近,。自2010年以來(lái)一直執(zhí)掌教育科技公司Chegg的首席執(zhí)行官丹·羅森維格就是這一觀點(diǎn)的忠實(shí)維護(hù)者。

Chegg是一家提供數(shù)字和實(shí)體教科書租賃以及在線輔導(dǎo)等服務(wù)的公司,。該公司的首席執(zhí)行官羅森維格表示,,新冠疫情的蔓延加速了這一時(shí)刻的到來(lái)。普林斯頓大學(xué),、斯坦福大學(xué)等捐贈(zèng)基金豐厚的高校,,尚能夠抵抗這場(chǎng)風(fēng)暴,而規(guī)模較小的學(xué)院和綜合性大學(xué)或?qū)㈦y以支撐下去,。

情況到底有多糟糕,?羅森維格最近對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“我們估計(jì),未來(lái)幾年有25%的大學(xué)可能會(huì)走向破產(chǎn),?!?/p>

在疫情的影響下,偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)及混合型學(xué)校的學(xué)生人數(shù)呈現(xiàn)出急劇下降之勢(shì):2020年秋季,,美國(guó)大學(xué)的入學(xué)人數(shù)下降了約40萬(wàn)人,,其中降幅最大的是社區(qū)大學(xué),新生入學(xué)人數(shù)下降了13%,。這與經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間通常發(fā)生的情況恰恰相反——失業(yè)者為了改善就業(yè)前景,,會(huì)選擇入學(xué)深造。在2008年至2009年的經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條時(shí)期,,社區(qū)大學(xué)的入學(xué)人數(shù)猛增了250萬(wàn),。

而現(xiàn)在,大學(xué)急于吸引學(xué)生,,紛紛公布了學(xué)費(fèi)減免政策。這也導(dǎo)致了去年大學(xué)學(xué)費(fèi)的指數(shù)出現(xiàn)了自1978年以來(lái)的最大跌幅,。

羅森維格認(rèn)為,,對(duì)大學(xué)來(lái)說(shuō),疫情造成的財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)甚至還不是最嚴(yán)重的長(zhǎng)期問(wèn)題。他指出,,這些學(xué)校未能適應(yīng)現(xiàn)代學(xué)生的需求,。大約四分之三的大學(xué)生存在至少一種非傳統(tǒng)的特性,例如全職工作,、擁有子女等,。羅森維格表示,這些非傳統(tǒng)的學(xué)生尤其需要學(xué)校提供靈活的課程和線上授課選擇,。但他補(bǔ)充稱,,Z世代也希望如此。畢竟在他們成長(zhǎng)的時(shí)代,,Uber打車只需輕點(diǎn)屏幕即可完成,。

“在一個(gè)讓學(xué)生們負(fù)債累累、有近半可能無(wú)法畢業(yè)的教育體系中,,他們究竟能否受益,?況且即便他們成功畢業(yè),他們最終得到的工作收入也不足以償還貸款,。另外,,學(xué)校所教授的課程還有可能與他們的未來(lái)工作毫無(wú)關(guān)聯(lián)。整個(gè)系統(tǒng)在設(shè)計(jì)時(shí)還沒有考慮到學(xué)生群體的多樣性,,比如性別,、年齡、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況等等,。更要命的是,,學(xué)費(fèi)還越來(lái)越貴了?!绷_森維格說(shuō),。

數(shù)據(jù)印證了他的說(shuō)法。從2001年到2021年,,大學(xué)學(xué)費(fèi)上漲了140%,,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)了通貨膨脹的速度。與此同時(shí),,只有62%的學(xué)生能夠在入學(xué)后的六年內(nèi)畢業(yè)——這個(gè)數(shù)字幾乎沒有變化,。

大學(xué)應(yīng)該回到何處?羅森維格認(rèn)為,,大學(xué)應(yīng)該從頭開始,,制定大眾支付得起的項(xiàng)目,充分利用科技,,以大規(guī)模地支持學(xué)生發(fā)展,,提供對(duì)學(xué)生工作發(fā)展有實(shí)際用途的課程,。“如果想讓高等教育賦予學(xué)生就業(yè)能力,,讓他們賺到足夠多的錢,,成為中產(chǎn)階級(jí),那么整個(gè)體系就需要按照大多數(shù)人的需求來(lái)設(shè)計(jì),?!彼a(bǔ)充說(shuō)。

羅森維格表示,,Chegg對(duì)學(xué)生用戶的內(nèi)部調(diào)查顯示,,75%的大學(xué)生喜歡混合學(xué)習(xí)模式,即面對(duì)面授課和在線授課相結(jié)合的模式,,這也是疫情催生的在線學(xué)習(xí),、混合學(xué)習(xí)模式不會(huì)消失的原因。與電子商務(wù),、流媒體等其他領(lǐng)域類似,,疫情只是加快了高等教育的數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型。對(duì)于提供數(shù)字學(xué)習(xí)資源的Chegg來(lái)說(shuō),,這一加速的數(shù)字轉(zhuǎn)型給它帶來(lái)了極大的好處,。Chegg的教科書、家庭作業(yè)輔導(dǎo)等訂閱服務(wù)的訂閱量在2020年達(dá)到了660萬(wàn)這一新高,,同比上升了67%,。與此同時(shí),2020年的凈收入增長(zhǎng)了57%,,達(dá)到2.057億美元,。股東們?yōu)榇烁械礁吲d:自2020年1月以來(lái),Chegg的股價(jià)已經(jīng)上漲128%,,至87.55美元,。

其他科技、教育公司也出現(xiàn)了類似的增長(zhǎng),。曾任《財(cái)富》雜志編輯的丹·普里馬克在其Axios通訊報(bào)道中稱,,早教技術(shù)公司SV Venture新近籌集了1.8億美元的第二只基金?!安还軐W(xué)生們何時(shí)回到教室,,過(guò)去的一年已經(jīng)徹底改變了教育行業(yè)?;旌闲蛯W(xué)習(xí)模式可能會(huì)在新興國(guó)家的農(nóng)村地區(qū)等一些地方成為常態(tài),,而在成人學(xué)習(xí)領(lǐng)域,改進(jìn)Zoom臨時(shí)教室的初創(chuàng)公司可能擁有數(shù)十億潛在客戶,?!逼绽锺R克補(bǔ)充道,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:楊二一

美國(guó)高等教育存在著嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題:學(xué)費(fèi)越來(lái)越貴,畢業(yè)率和就業(yè)前景卻停滯不前甚至日漸灰暗,。整個(gè)高等教育領(lǐng)域最終的“大洗牌”正在逐漸逼近。自2010年以來(lái)一直執(zhí)掌教育科技公司Chegg的首席執(zhí)行官丹·羅森維格就是這一觀點(diǎn)的忠實(shí)維護(hù)者,。

Chegg是一家提供數(shù)字和實(shí)體教科書租賃以及在線輔導(dǎo)等服務(wù)的公司,。該公司的首席執(zhí)行官羅森維格表示,新冠疫情的蔓延加速了這一時(shí)刻的到來(lái),。普林斯頓大學(xué),、斯坦福大學(xué)等捐贈(zèng)基金豐厚的高校,尚能夠抵抗這場(chǎng)風(fēng)暴,,而規(guī)模較小的學(xué)院和綜合性大學(xué)或?qū)㈦y以支撐下去,。

情況到底有多糟糕?羅森維格最近對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“我們估計(jì),,未來(lái)幾年有25%的大學(xué)可能會(huì)走向破產(chǎn),。”

在疫情的影響下,,偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)及混合型學(xué)校的學(xué)生人數(shù)呈現(xiàn)出急劇下降之勢(shì):2020年秋季,,美國(guó)大學(xué)的入學(xué)人數(shù)下降了約40萬(wàn)人,其中降幅最大的是社區(qū)大學(xué),,新生入學(xué)人數(shù)下降了13%,。這與經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間通常發(fā)生的情況恰恰相反——失業(yè)者為了改善就業(yè)前景,會(huì)選擇入學(xué)深造,。在2008年至2009年的經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條時(shí)期,,社區(qū)大學(xué)的入學(xué)人數(shù)猛增了250萬(wàn)。

而現(xiàn)在,,大學(xué)急于吸引學(xué)生,,紛紛公布了學(xué)費(fèi)減免政策。這也導(dǎo)致了去年大學(xué)學(xué)費(fèi)的指數(shù)出現(xiàn)了自1978年以來(lái)的最大跌幅,。

羅森維格認(rèn)為,,對(duì)大學(xué)來(lái)說(shuō),疫情造成的財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)甚至還不是最嚴(yán)重的長(zhǎng)期問(wèn)題,。他指出,,這些學(xué)校未能適應(yīng)現(xiàn)代學(xué)生的需求。大約四分之三的大學(xué)生存在至少一種非傳統(tǒng)的特性,,例如全職工作,、擁有子女等。羅森維格表示,,這些非傳統(tǒng)的學(xué)生尤其需要學(xué)校提供靈活的課程和線上授課選擇,。但他補(bǔ)充稱,,Z世代也希望如此。畢竟在他們成長(zhǎng)的時(shí)代,,Uber打車只需輕點(diǎn)屏幕即可完成,。

“在一個(gè)讓學(xué)生們負(fù)債累累、有近半可能無(wú)法畢業(yè)的教育體系中,,他們究竟能否受益,?況且即便他們成功畢業(yè),他們最終得到的工作收入也不足以償還貸款,。另外,,學(xué)校所教授的課程還有可能與他們的未來(lái)工作毫無(wú)關(guān)聯(lián)。整個(gè)系統(tǒng)在設(shè)計(jì)時(shí)還沒有考慮到學(xué)生群體的多樣性,,比如性別,、年齡、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況等等,。更要命的是,,學(xué)費(fèi)還越來(lái)越貴了?!绷_森維格說(shuō),。

數(shù)據(jù)印證了他的說(shuō)法。從2001年到2021年,,大學(xué)學(xué)費(fèi)上漲了140%,,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)了通貨膨脹的速度。與此同時(shí),,只有62%的學(xué)生能夠在入學(xué)后的六年內(nèi)畢業(yè)——這個(gè)數(shù)字幾乎沒有變化,。

大學(xué)應(yīng)該回到何處?羅森維格認(rèn)為,,大學(xué)應(yīng)該從頭開始,,制定大眾支付得起的項(xiàng)目,充分利用科技,,以大規(guī)模地支持學(xué)生發(fā)展,,提供對(duì)學(xué)生工作發(fā)展有實(shí)際用途的課程?!叭绻胱尭叩冉逃x予學(xué)生就業(yè)能力,,讓他們賺到足夠多的錢,成為中產(chǎn)階級(jí),,那么整個(gè)體系就需要按照大多數(shù)人的需求來(lái)設(shè)計(jì),。”他補(bǔ)充說(shuō),。

羅森維格表示,,Chegg對(duì)學(xué)生用戶的內(nèi)部調(diào)查顯示,,75%的大學(xué)生喜歡混合學(xué)習(xí)模式,即面對(duì)面授課和在線授課相結(jié)合的模式,,這也是疫情催生的在線學(xué)習(xí),、混合學(xué)習(xí)模式不會(huì)消失的原因。與電子商務(wù),、流媒體等其他領(lǐng)域類似,,疫情只是加快了高等教育的數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型。對(duì)于提供數(shù)字學(xué)習(xí)資源的Chegg來(lái)說(shuō),,這一加速的數(shù)字轉(zhuǎn)型給它帶來(lái)了極大的好處。Chegg的教科書,、家庭作業(yè)輔導(dǎo)等訂閱服務(wù)的訂閱量在2020年達(dá)到了660萬(wàn)這一新高,,同比上升了67%。與此同時(shí),,2020年的凈收入增長(zhǎng)了57%,,達(dá)到2.057億美元。股東們?yōu)榇烁械礁吲d:自2020年1月以來(lái),,Chegg的股價(jià)已經(jīng)上漲128%,,至87.55美元。

其他科技,、教育公司也出現(xiàn)了類似的增長(zhǎng),。曾任《財(cái)富》雜志編輯的丹·普里馬克在其Axios通訊報(bào)道中稱,早教技術(shù)公司SV Venture新近籌集了1.8億美元的第二只基金,?!安还軐W(xué)生們何時(shí)回到教室,過(guò)去的一年已經(jīng)徹底改變了教育行業(yè),?;旌闲蛯W(xué)習(xí)模式可能會(huì)在新興國(guó)家的農(nóng)村地區(qū)等一些地方成為常態(tài),而在成人學(xué)習(xí)領(lǐng)域,,改進(jìn)Zoom臨時(shí)教室的初創(chuàng)公司可能擁有數(shù)十億潛在客戶,。”普里馬克補(bǔ)充道,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:楊二一

There is something deeply wrong with U.S. higher education: Tuition seemingly never stops rising, while outcomes like graduation rates and job prospects are stagnating or worsening. Eventually a reckoning is coming to higher education. Or at least that's the message Chegg CEO Dan Rosensweig has been preaching since he took the helm of the education technology company in 2010.

The COVID-19 pandemic, Rosensweig says, has hastened that moment. Schools with the biggest endowments, like Princeton or Stanford, can weather the storm, while smaller colleges and universities might not be able to hang on.

Just how bad is it? Rosensweig, who leads a company that provides services ranging from digital and physical textbook rentals to online tutoring, recently told Fortune, "We estimate 25% of colleges could go out of business in the next few years."

Many institutions that went remote or hybrid as a result of the pandemic have seen precipitous declines in their student bodies: Fall 2020 enrollment at U.S. colleges was down about 400,000, with the sharpest drop occurring at community colleges, where freshman enrollment dropped 13%. That's exactly the opposite of what usually occurs during recessions, with the unemployed enrolling in an attempt to improve their job prospects. In fact, during the Great Recession, enrollment at community colleges jumped 2.5 million.

Schools are so desperate to entice students that many schools are turning to tuition breaks. That's why last year the consumer price index for college tuition saw its biggest price decline since 1978.

But the financial crunch caused by the pandemic isn't even the biggest long-term issue for colleges, Rosensweig says. Instead he points to the fact they aren't adapting to students’ modern needs. Around three in four college students have at least one nontraditional trait, for example: working full-time or having children. These nontraditional students, in particular, need schools to offer flexible classes and online options, Rosensweig says. But Gen Zers want that too, he adds. After all, they grew up at a time when an Uber ride was just a click away.

"Is the student benefiting from a system where they run up debt and has an almost 1 in 2 chance they’re not going to graduate? That even if they do, they end up in a job that's not paying them what they need to make to pay back their loan. And they [schools] have curriculums that have nothing to do with the careers [students] are likely to enter. The whole system wasn’t designed to work at scale with a diverse student base: diversity in terms of gender, age, socioeconomic, and in many ways race…and prices keep going up," Rosensweig said.

The numbers show Rosensweig has a point. Between 2001 to 2021, tuition rose over 140%, which far outpaced inflation. At the same time, only 62% of students graduated within six years of enrolling—a figure that has barely moved.

Where should colleges start? Rosensweig says they need to go back to the drawing board and build programs that are affordable, utilize technology, support students at scale, and provide curriculums that better prepare students for the modern workforce. He added, "If you want [higher education] to empower students to be employable and earn enough to be middle class, then the whole system needs to be designed to do that for the majority of people."

Rosensweig says Chegg's internal surveys of its student users show that 75% of college students favor a hybrid model (that is, a mix of in-person and online learning). That's why the adoption of online and hybrid learning that the pandemic spurred won't go away, he says. Similar to other areas in our lives, including e-commerce and video streaming, the pandemic has only sped up the digital transformation of higher education. That accelerated digital transformation has immensely benefited Chegg, which provides digital resources to students. Its subscription service, which includes access to textbooks and homework help, saw its subscription base hit a record of 6.6 million in 2020. That was a 67% year-over-year uptick. At the same time, net revenue increased by 57% to $205.7 million in 2020. That has made Chegg shareholders happy: Since January 2020, its share price has climbed 128% to $87.55.

Other tech/education players are seeing similar gains. SV Ventures is an early-stage education technology firm that just raised $180 million in its second fund, according to Dan Primack's Axios newsletter. Primack, a former Fortune editor, added, "The past year has permanently changed education, regardless of when all students return to the classroom. Some form of ‘hybrid’ learning could become the norm in certain places (e.g., rural areas of emerging countries) and among certain cohorts (e.g., adult learning), meaning there could be billions of potential customers for startups that improve on makeshift Zoom classrooms."

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