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Slowly but surely, Tesla is making inroads in India.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted last October that the electric-vehicle (EV) maker would enter India in 2021 "for sure," and last month the company incorporated two subsidiaries—Tesla Motors India and Energy Private Limited—in the subcontinent’s southern tech hub, Bengaluru. Local media reported in mid-February that the governor of Karnataka—the Indian state containing Bengaluru—confirmed Tesla's plans to construct an assembly plant in the region too.

The news sent India Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari hustling to persuade Tesla to source components and manufacture EVs in India as well, rather than just assemble and sell vehicles in the country. In early March, the minister told Reuters the government could offer Tesla enough incentives to make the cost of manufacturing in India “the lowest when compared with the world, even China.”

Since opening its own factory in China in 2019—with the help of government loans and subsidies—Tesla has grown into the leading seller of electric passenger cars in the country. While India could offer Tesla any number of incentives to beat the cost of production in China, manufacturing in India will still be more challenging than doing so in China.

India’s EV supply chain is leagues behind China’s, which Beijing has built up over decades by spending billions of dollars across multiple sectors. China is now reaping the rewards. EV battery makers—including the world's largest, China's own CATL—have factories in China. So do the world's leading automakers—including the Warren Buffett–backed EV pioneer, BYD.

Last year, China sold 1.25 million new-energy vehicles—a segment that is mostly electric vehicles—and some 150,000 of them were made by Tesla. India, meanwhile, sold 5,000 electric cars in 2020, and although the country has a significant auto manufacturing industry, the EV supply chain remains immature.

For Tesla, entry into India wouldn't be a bid for an immediate payoff but a big bet on the future.

EV 2020

India began its push to supercharge its domestic electric-vehicle market and industry in 2013—the year before Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power. That year, the government launched its ambitious National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020 (NEMMP), which targeted annual sales of 7 million electric or hybrid vehicles by 2020.

The lofty goal includes two- and three-wheel electric vehicles, i.e. motorbikes and rickshaws, a segment that dominates India’s traditional auto market. But last year, India fell far short of its ambitions, selling only 156,000 electric vehicles, excluding rickshaws.

“The money India’s government has put into its scheme just isn’t sufficient,” says Deepak Jain, a New Delhi–based partner at consultancy Bain & Company. Besides the headline goal of 7 million EV sales per year, the NEMMP also set out to expand India’s charging infrastructure, subsidize consumer purchases, and kick-start domestic EV manufacturing.

According to the Department of Heavy Industry (DHI), the Indian government anticipated the NEMMP would require funding of $1.91 billion over its seven-year life span—including contributions from the private sector. China, by comparison, sloshed out $60 billion in government funding between 2009 and 2017 to boost its domestic EV market. That doesn't include investments China had already made in other sectors of the broader EV supply chain—such as rare-earth metals, which are vital to building electric motors and are processed mostly in China.

In 2015, India's DHI launched another initiative called the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles in India, or FAME, which also provided financial support to domestic EV manufacturers and sponsored charging networks. But FAME has had limited results too. According to the DHI, the program financed the installation of 425 charging stations total as of September 2020, spending $380 million.

Last year, the government set new targets of placing one charging station every two square miles in major cities and also plans to install one charger every six miles along several national highways. But, Jain says, the current charging infrastructure is “not even 10% of what it should be.”

Plug in

Despite the shortcomings of India’s EV ecosystem, Tesla appears intent to enter the market. In January this year, Musk replied to a news article about Tesla registering its Indian subsidiaries with a tweet that read, “As promised”—a reference to his own October tweet.

Musk’s tweets are the only public statements Tesla has made about its India ambitions, leaving analysts to speculate over the company’s game plan. Bengaluru, where Tesla will reportedly build an assembly plant, is hundreds of miles from any port—making it unlikely India would serve as an export hub for Tesla to reach other Asian countries.

Tesla didn't respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Meanwhile India’s local EV manufacturing ecosystem essentially “doesn’t exist,” Jain says, adding that if Tesla is planning to set up manufacturing—rather than just assembly—in India, the company would have to build an ecosystem “from scratch.” Even building one of Tesla's so-called Gigafactory production sites is a costly endeavor. Tesla spent roughly $5 billion on its Gigafactory in Shanghai. It would take a long time to see returns on that investment in India.

According to Invest India—a nonprofit established under the Ministry of Commerce—the market for four-wheeled electric vehicles will reach just $700 million by 2025. Tesla, targeting the premium segment and competing with local rivals like Tata Motors, is likely to own a portion of that.

But India has set a target for EVs to make up 30% of auto sales by 2030—up from less than 1% in 2020—as the country tries to fulfill its commitments under the Paris Agreement. At the very least, setting up an assembly plant in Bengaluru will help Tesla tap into some of that growth.

“I think Tesla is thinking about India clearly from a long-term perspective, rather than a one-to-three-year perspective,” Jain says. “Right now, they need to get a foot in the door.”