貯木場(chǎng)和住宅建筑商都推遲了從鋸木廠采購(gòu)木材的時(shí)間,期盼著目前直沖云霄的木材價(jià)格最終能回落到地面,。但它還沒(méi)有挪動(dòng)的跡象,。而且,隨著春夏季項(xiàng)目開(kāi)工在即,,購(gòu)買木材的熱潮已經(jīng)開(kāi)始,。
“顯然,鋸木廠贏得了這場(chǎng)對(duì)峙,?!钡峡夏静墓?Deacon Lumber)首席執(zhí)行官斯廷森?迪恩對(duì)《財(cái)富》表示。
大量買家的涌入只會(huì)進(jìn)一步推高價(jià)格,。上周五,,根據(jù)木材產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)研機(jī)構(gòu)Random Lengths的數(shù)據(jù),,每千板尺的木材價(jià)格躍升至1048美元,較一年前飆漲193%,,創(chuàng)下歷史新高,。
這次價(jià)格跳漲不太可能是最后一次。本周一,,每千板尺木材(2X4規(guī)格)的5月期貨合約價(jià)格上漲32美元,,至1158美元。要不是熔斷機(jī)制在交易開(kāi)始20分鐘后暫停交易——單個(gè)交易日的價(jià)格上漲32美元,,就會(huì)觸發(fā)熔斷機(jī)制——此次漲幅還會(huì)更高,。
迪恩告訴《財(cái)富》:“這顯然是一次軋空。在期貨和現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng),,貯木場(chǎng)做了過(guò)多的銷售承諾,,但沒(méi)有足夠多的木材來(lái)填補(bǔ)?!彼f(shuō),,這個(gè)信號(hào)明確無(wú)誤地顯示,短期內(nèi)價(jià)格還將進(jìn)一步上漲,。
從一開(kāi)始,,新冠疫情就成為一場(chǎng)推動(dòng)木材價(jià)格暴漲的完美風(fēng)暴。在危機(jī)爆發(fā)初期的幾個(gè)月,,鋸木廠限制了產(chǎn)量,。與此同時(shí),這場(chǎng)疫情激發(fā)了困在家里的美國(guó)人“自己動(dòng)手”的熱潮,。這種供需錯(cuò)配又因?yàn)閯?chuàng)紀(jì)錄的低利率,,以及處于歷史低位的現(xiàn)有住房庫(kù)存(這導(dǎo)致買家競(jìng)相建造新房屋)而進(jìn)一步加劇。盡管木材產(chǎn)量在2月份達(dá)到了13年來(lái)的最高水平,,但由于積壓而未交付的訂單如此之多,,價(jià)格并沒(méi)有下降。
不要指望需求會(huì)很快下降,。
“2021年,,木材和其他木制品的市場(chǎng)需求仍然深不可測(cè)。建筑商還有許多已開(kāi)工項(xiàng)目有待完成,。這將推動(dòng)木材和板材需求繼續(xù)高位運(yùn)行,,同時(shí)也會(huì)讓鋸木廠很難快速提高產(chǎn)量來(lái)重新平衡市場(chǎng)?!盕astmarkets RISI公司專門研究木材價(jià)格的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家達(dá)斯汀·賈伯特表示,。
賈伯特預(yù)測(cè),木材價(jià)格最終會(huì)回調(diào),但不能保證它會(huì)回落到2020年4月每千板尺358美元的價(jià)格,。如果價(jià)格真的回調(diào),,那很可能是木材成本讓建筑商不堪重負(fù),,同時(shí)利率上升抑制了購(gòu)房熱情的結(jié)果,。但這一幕還沒(méi)有出現(xiàn),盡管全美住宅建筑商協(xié)會(huì)(National Association of home Builders)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,目前的木材價(jià)格使得一套新建獨(dú)棟住宅的價(jià)格至少上漲了2.4萬(wàn)美元,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:任文科
貯木場(chǎng)和住宅建筑商都推遲了從鋸木廠采購(gòu)木材的時(shí)間,,期盼著目前直沖云霄的木材價(jià)格最終能回落到地面。但它還沒(méi)有挪動(dòng)的跡象,。而且,,隨著春夏季項(xiàng)目開(kāi)工在即,,購(gòu)買木材的熱潮已經(jīng)開(kāi)始,。
“顯然,鋸木廠贏得了這場(chǎng)對(duì)峙,?!钡峡夏静墓?Deacon Lumber)首席執(zhí)行官斯廷森?迪恩對(duì)《財(cái)富》表示。
大量買家的涌入只會(huì)進(jìn)一步推高價(jià)格,。上周五,,根據(jù)木材產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)研機(jī)構(gòu)Random Lengths的數(shù)據(jù),每千板尺的木材價(jià)格躍升至1048美元,,較一年前飆漲193%,,創(chuàng)下歷史新高。
這次價(jià)格跳漲不太可能是最后一次,。本周一,,每千板尺木材(2X4規(guī)格)的5月期貨合約價(jià)格上漲32美元,至1158美元,。要不是熔斷機(jī)制在交易開(kāi)始20分鐘后暫停交易——單個(gè)交易日的價(jià)格上漲32美元,,就會(huì)觸發(fā)熔斷機(jī)制——此次漲幅還會(huì)更高。
迪恩告訴《財(cái)富》:“這顯然是一次軋空,。在期貨和現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng),,貯木場(chǎng)做了過(guò)多的銷售承諾,但沒(méi)有足夠多的木材來(lái)填補(bǔ),?!彼f(shuō),這個(gè)信號(hào)明確無(wú)誤地顯示,,短期內(nèi)價(jià)格還將進(jìn)一步上漲,。
從一開(kāi)始,新冠疫情就成為一場(chǎng)推動(dòng)木材價(jià)格暴漲的完美風(fēng)暴。在危機(jī)爆發(fā)初期的幾個(gè)月,,鋸木廠限制了產(chǎn)量,。與此同時(shí),這場(chǎng)疫情激發(fā)了困在家里的美國(guó)人“自己動(dòng)手”的熱潮,。這種供需錯(cuò)配又因?yàn)閯?chuàng)紀(jì)錄的低利率,,以及處于歷史低位的現(xiàn)有住房庫(kù)存(這導(dǎo)致買家競(jìng)相建造新房屋)而進(jìn)一步加劇。盡管木材產(chǎn)量在2月份達(dá)到了13年來(lái)的最高水平,,但由于積壓而未交付的訂單如此之多,,價(jià)格并沒(méi)有下降。
不要指望需求會(huì)很快下降,。
“2021年,,木材和其他木制品的市場(chǎng)需求仍然深不可測(cè)。建筑商還有許多已開(kāi)工項(xiàng)目有待完成,。這將推動(dòng)木材和板材需求繼續(xù)高位運(yùn)行,,同時(shí)也會(huì)讓鋸木廠很難快速提高產(chǎn)量來(lái)重新平衡市場(chǎng)?!盕astmarkets RISI公司專門研究木材價(jià)格的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家達(dá)斯汀·賈伯特表示,。
賈伯特預(yù)測(cè),木材價(jià)格最終會(huì)回調(diào),,但不能保證它會(huì)回落到2020年4月每千板尺358美元的價(jià)格,。如果價(jià)格真的回調(diào),那很可能是木材成本讓建筑商不堪重負(fù),,同時(shí)利率上升抑制了購(gòu)房熱情的結(jié)果,。但這一幕還沒(méi)有出現(xiàn),盡管全美住宅建筑商協(xié)會(huì)(National Association of home Builders)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,目前的木材價(jià)格使得一套新建獨(dú)棟住宅的價(jià)格至少上漲了2.4萬(wàn)美元,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:任文科
Lumberyards and homebuilders alike have delayed buying lumber from sawmills in hopes the price of the sky-high commodity would finally come back down to earth. It hasn’t budged, and now the buying rush is on ahead of spring and summer projects.
“Clearly mills won the standoff,” Stinson Dean, CEO of Deacon Lumber, told Fortune.
This influx of buyers is only further driving up the price. On Friday, the price of lumber per thousand board feet jumped to $1,048, according to Random Lengths. That’s an all-time high, and up 193% from a year ago.
That price jump is unlikely to be the last. On Monday, the May futures contract price per thousand board feet of two-by-fours jumped $32 to $1,158. That uptick would have been higher had circuit breakers not been halted 20 minutes into trading—something that occurs when the commodity is up more than $32 during a single trading day.
“It’s clearly a short squeeze. In futures and spot markets. Lumberyards are overcommitted on their sales, and there isn’t enough wood to cover,” Dean told Fortune. This is a clear signal, he says, that prices will go up more in the short term.
From the onset, the pandemic was a perfect storm for surging lumber prices. At the same time that sawmills were limiting production during the early months of the crisis, the pandemic was spurring a do-it-yourself boom among Americans stuck at home. That supply and demand mismatch was made worse by record low interest rates and a historically tight existing housing inventory which caused buyers to rush to new construction. The backlog is so big that prices aren’t falling despite wood production hitting a 13-year high in February.
Don’t expect demand to drop anytime soon.
“The pipeline for lumber and other wood products demand remains quite deep in 2021…Builders have plenty of ongoing projects to keep working through, which is keeping lumber and panel demand high, and making it very difficult for mills to ramp production up fast enough to rebalance the market,” says Dustin Jalbert, senior economist at Fastmarkets RISI, where he specializes in wood prices.
Jalbert foresees an eventual lumber correction, but there’s no guarantee it will return to the April 2020 price of $358 per thousand board feet. If a correction does occur, it will likely be the result of the cost of lumber overwhelming builders at the same time as rising interest rates tamp down homebuying. That hasn’t happened yet, despite current lumber prices adding at least $24,000 to the price tag of a typical new single-family home, according to the National Association of Home Builders.