從這些角度看,，比特幣已經(jīng)失敗了
Shawn Tully
2021-04-26
對比特幣（Bitcoin）的狂熱者而言,，他們很難解釋加密貨幣到底有什么好處,。比特幣的一些粉絲聲稱，比特幣馬上就將成為一種被廣泛接受的貨幣,，與美元展開競爭,。還有人說,，比特幣的稀缺性為應(yīng)對日益嚴(yán)重的通貨膨脹和經(jīng)濟危機提供了一個巨大的對沖。此外,，它還被譽為“價值儲存”,。由于供應(yīng)的穩(wěn)定性和持續(xù)飆升的受歡迎度，比特幣這一新的數(shù)字黃金,，價格注定還會繼續(xù)上漲,。
而在現(xiàn)實中，作為一種購物工具,，比特幣已經(jīng)失敗了,。在去年美國股市崩盤期間，比特幣作為安全港的第一次考驗也失敗了,。極大的波動性（比特幣在過去三年的暴跌次數(shù)相當(dāng)于近20年來原油遭受的暴跌次數(shù)）意味著比特幣絕不是可靠的價值儲存手段,。比特幣最近的走勢也十分跌宕起伏：其價格在4月14日達到64800美元的歷史高點后，4月23日中午下跌超23%,，至49700美元,，市值下跌超2000億美元。追蹤比特幣能源消耗的網(wǎng)站Digiconomist的運營者,、荷蘭經(jīng)濟學(xué)家亞歷克斯·德弗里斯說：“比特幣唯一的‘用處’就是期望它的價值上升,，然后有人付給你的錢比你買入時付出的多?！?/p>
基本不適合購物
作為全球金融基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的一部分,，比特幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)因為容量嚴(yán)重受限而步履蹣跚。據(jù)德弗里斯估計,，全球礦工網(wǎng)絡(luò)每秒最多只能夠處理7筆交易,，而如今，這一速度大約在5筆左右,。相比之下,，Visa每秒最多可以處理65000筆付款。因此,，支付或轉(zhuǎn)賬數(shù)量的任何激增都會導(dǎo)致積壓,。客戶必須向礦商付款,，才能夠在區(qū)塊鏈上注冊交易,。隨著系統(tǒng)變得越來越擁擠，礦工們會優(yōu)先考慮提供最高費用的交易,。支付最多的買家就會走在最前面,，首先完成交易。
利用比特幣購物,，成本往往很高,，而且隨著交易的膨脹或計算運力的緊缺,，成本還會繼續(xù)攀升?！敖衲甏蟛糠謺r間,，比特幣每筆交易的成本在16美元至20美元之間?！钡赂ダ锼怪赋?，“由于交易量增大，今年2月的交易價格曾經(jīng)達到30美元,，4月23日更是升至59美元,。緊接著,，由于交易量持續(xù)增大,，網(wǎng)絡(luò)又變得更加擁擠?！?/p>
德弗里斯補充說,，比特幣在購物方面的表現(xiàn)不佳。如果使用比特幣購買價值100美元的雜貨,，可能需要等待一個小時才可以收到最終交易確認(rèn),。在此期間，商店將面臨任何價格變動的風(fēng)險,?！氨忍貛诺膬r格可能在這一小時內(nèi)下跌10%，給商店造成損失,?！钡赂ダ锼贡硎荆邦櫩瓦€要支付至少20美元的手續(xù)費,?！币虼耍慕Y(jié)論是：除非用比特幣來購買一些奢侈品,，比如數(shù)字NFT藝術(shù)品或特斯拉（Tesla）的SUV汽車,，否則，用比特幣支付將“非常昂貴,，而且用戶體驗非常不友好”,。
不穩(wěn)定，無法提供保護
黃金這一世界上最有價值的“保值方式”,，在過去的近半個世紀(jì)中已經(jīng)被證明是糟糕的投資產(chǎn)品,。1974年至今，金價恰好翻了一番,，至每盎司1800美元——與之相比,，衡量消費者通脹的主要指標(biāo)CPI,，上漲了整整6倍。所以,，黃金絕不是對沖通脹的良好工具,。在動蕩時期，比如1974年和1978年的石油危機以及經(jīng)濟大蕭條（Great Recession）時期,，黃金確實表現(xiàn)良好,。但如果你在經(jīng)濟開始復(fù)蘇時不立刻賣出持有的黃金，收益就會清零,。
黃金的缺點,，是其巨幅的、難以預(yù)測的波動性,。有時投機者會認(rèn)為黃金是一塊寶石,，而在其他時期，它又變成了一團垃圾,?？偟膩碚f，黃金的波動性與美元和其他主要貨幣,，以及標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)（S&P 500）的波動大致相同,。從長期來看，美股投資者會從坎坷震蕩中獲得豐厚的回報,；而至于黃金,，未必。
那么,，比特幣呢,？它的波動性是黃金的四倍。從2017年12月到2018年2月,，其價格從1.9萬美元暴跌至6300美元,；從2018年4月到2019年1月，又下跌了65%,；緊接著在6月實現(xiàn)回升,，但到12月又下跌了60%。
自比特幣誕生以來,，美國沒有經(jīng)歷過任何通貨膨脹事件,，所以我們不知道，如果生活成本突然飆升,，比特幣會如何表現(xiàn),。但是，比特幣在去年年初美國股市關(guān)閉期間的表現(xiàn)已經(jīng)記錄在案：從2020年2月19日標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)收盤時的歷史新高，到3月23日的探底,，該指數(shù)下跌了33%,，而比特幣也正好下跌了三分之一——從9633美元跌至6416美元?！斑@是一個至關(guān)重要的‘測試’,。”德弗里斯稱,，“比特幣與股市的大幅下跌完全相關(guān),。”也就是說,，比特幣并沒有提供任何支持者所預(yù)測的對沖和保護,。“比特幣與市場崩潰和經(jīng)濟衰退完全相關(guān),，這很重要,。”德弗里斯說,。
對于比特幣的走勢,，他表示,，唯一比較明朗的,，恰恰是一條相反的路徑：隨著當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇，比特幣似乎會在經(jīng)濟上行時蓬勃發(fā)展,。但是,，即便是這種相關(guān)性也是可疑的。從2020年年中至今,，比特幣的價值一路飆升了五倍,，但在此過程中，它也經(jīng)歷過暴跌：去年8,、9月跌了20%,，今年1月跌了30%、2月跌了24%,，更不用說剛剛過去的4月,，價格跳水四分之一。
無形無實,，違背市場規(guī)律
盡管把黃金作為長期投資的選擇很不明智,，但它的價值仍然深受市場基本原理的影響。每年開采的黃金總量中,，有70%用于制造珠寶,，另外5%用于制造電子產(chǎn)品。因此對黃金的需求相當(dāng)穩(wěn)定。當(dāng)金價下跌時,，礦山就會關(guān)閉或減產(chǎn),，從而推高價格；而當(dāng)其價格飛漲時,，礦山會重新開放或者開始新的挖礦活動,，增加黃金的供應(yīng)量，并抑制金價繼續(xù)飆升,。當(dāng)然,，黃金的價格之所以會違背這種基本供求規(guī)律，是因為大量的投機活動經(jīng)常會導(dǎo)致其價格遠(yuǎn)高于生產(chǎn)成本,。然后,，當(dāng)人們開始大量開采新礦后，金價可能又會降到遠(yuǎn)低于成本的水平,，而且這種情況有時甚至?xí)掷m(xù)數(shù)年,。
簡而言之，即便在黃金市場最糟糕的時候,，當(dāng)產(chǎn)量超過需求,、價格下跌時，黃金也具有內(nèi)在的價值,。它能夠用來生產(chǎn)珠寶和電子產(chǎn)品,，這方面的價值就為它的價格提供了保障。
但與黃金不同,，比特幣不是由私人企業(yè)生產(chǎn)的,。它的供應(yīng)由固有的協(xié)議確定。不僅可發(fā)行的比特幣總量被限定在2100萬枚,，而且后續(xù)即將發(fā)行的230萬枚也將以恒定的速率流出,，該速率也不會受到貨幣供應(yīng)量、GDP或任何其他因素的影響而變化,。眼下,，德弗里斯稱，“礦工正賺得盆滿缽滿,。如果價格下跌80%,，許多礦山將關(guān)閉，但獲得新比特幣的算法將更容易,，所需的計算能力也隨之更新,、變得更低。比特幣的發(fā)行速率保持不變,?！比绻麅r格上漲且挖礦計算機的數(shù)量翻倍,，將不再有新比特幣出現(xiàn)。這與導(dǎo)致金價變動的因素完全不同,。
比特幣與美聯(lián)儲（Federal Reserve）的政策,、國民收入或任何私企的決策都無關(guān)，這可能是一種優(yōu)勢,。明年開采的數(shù)量和永久存量都將受到嚴(yán)格限制,。但是，和比特幣類似的各種新幣也如雨后春筍般涌現(xiàn),，動搖著比特幣的統(tǒng)治地位,。自2020年年初以來，比特幣在加密貨幣總資產(chǎn)中的份額已經(jīng)從三分之二降至一半,。以太幣（Ether）的份額則翻了一番,，占到14%以上。
盡管以太幣的供應(yīng)量不像比特幣那樣受到限制,，但它的系統(tǒng)發(fā)行新幣的速度極其緩慢,。因此，它可以在儲值價值方面與比特幣抗衡,。而比特幣價格的上漲也吸引了一眾競爭者,，它們都在激烈地角逐著“數(shù)字黃金”的頭銜。
比特幣是一種“無形”資產(chǎn),。沒有人知道它真正的價值在哪里,，因為它在現(xiàn)實生活中沒有任何能夠賺到錢的用途。如果要評估比特幣粉絲埃隆·馬斯克的特斯拉公司的價值,，則可以對電動汽車的未來市場規(guī)模,、特斯拉可能占有的份額,，以及企業(yè)的毛利率進行預(yù)測,。而對比特幣來說，沒有這類指標(biāo)能夠適用,。德弗里斯說：“未來,，比特幣里也不會有現(xiàn)金流或內(nèi)在價值，因此它的實際價值始終為零,。難怪比特幣迷們?yōu)樽约簱u旗助威的口號是‘為了保命,，抓緊上車’?！?/p>
要購買比特幣,，就必須持有一種堅定的信念：將來會有其他的狂熱信徒付出比當(dāng)初自己購買時更多的錢來接盤。商界有一句說得在理的老話：“希望”不能被當(dāng)作一種策略,?！靶拍睢币部赡苤皇且粋€不大靠譜的策略。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
編譯：楊二一、陳聰聰
對比特幣（Bitcoin）的狂熱者而言,，他們很難解釋加密貨幣到底有什么好處,。比特幣的一些粉絲聲稱，比特幣馬上就將成為一種被廣泛接受的貨幣,，與美元展開競爭,。還有人說，比特幣的稀缺性為應(yīng)對日益嚴(yán)重的通貨膨脹和經(jīng)濟危機提供了一個巨大的對沖,。此外,，它還被譽為“價值儲存”。由于供應(yīng)的穩(wěn)定性和持續(xù)飆升的受歡迎度,，比特幣這一新的數(shù)字黃金,，價格注定還會繼續(xù)上漲。
而在現(xiàn)實中,，作為一種購物工具,，比特幣已經(jīng)失敗了。在去年美國股市崩盤期間,，比特幣作為安全港的第一次考驗也失敗了,。極大的波動性（比特幣在過去三年的暴跌次數(shù)相當(dāng)于近20年來原油遭受的暴跌次數(shù)）意味著比特幣絕不是可靠的價值儲存手段。比特幣最近的走勢也十分跌宕起伏：其價格在4月14日達到64800美元的歷史高點后,，4月23日中午下跌超23%,，至49700美元，市值下跌超2000億美元,。追蹤比特幣能源消耗的網(wǎng)站Digiconomist的運營者,、荷蘭經(jīng)濟學(xué)家亞歷克斯·德弗里斯說：“比特幣唯一的‘用處’就是期望它的價值上升，然后有人付給你的錢比你買入時付出的多,?！?/p>
基本不適合購物
作為全球金融基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的一部分，比特幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)因為容量嚴(yán)重受限而步履蹣跚,。據(jù)德弗里斯估計,，全球礦工網(wǎng)絡(luò)每秒最多只能夠處理7筆交易，而如今,，這一速度大約在5筆左右,。相比之下，Visa每秒最多可以處理65000筆付款,。因此,，支付或轉(zhuǎn)賬數(shù)量的任何激增都會導(dǎo)致積壓?？蛻舯仨毾虻V商付款,，才能夠在區(qū)塊鏈上注冊交易,。隨著系統(tǒng)變得越來越擁擠，礦工們會優(yōu)先考慮提供最高費用的交易,。支付最多的買家就會走在最前面,，首先完成交易。
利用比特幣購物,，成本往往很高,，而且隨著交易的膨脹或計算運力的緊缺，成本還會繼續(xù)攀升,?！敖衲甏蟛糠謺r間，比特幣每筆交易的成本在16美元至20美元之間,?！钡赂ダ锼怪赋觯坝捎诮灰琢吭龃?，今年2月的交易價格曾經(jīng)達到30美元,，4月23日更是升至59美元。緊接著,，由于交易量持續(xù)增大,，網(wǎng)絡(luò)又變得更加擁擠?！?/p>
德弗里斯補充說,，比特幣在購物方面的表現(xiàn)不佳。如果使用比特幣購買價值100美元的雜貨,，可能需要等待一個小時才可以收到最終交易確認(rèn),。在此期間，商店將面臨任何價格變動的風(fēng)險,?！氨忍貛诺膬r格可能在這一小時內(nèi)下跌10%，給商店造成損失,?！钡赂ダ锼贡硎荆邦櫩瓦€要支付至少20美元的手續(xù)費,。”因此,，他的結(jié)論是：除非用比特幣來購買一些奢侈品,，比如數(shù)字NFT藝術(shù)品或特斯拉（Tesla）的SUV汽車，否則,，用比特幣支付將“非常昂貴,，而且用戶體驗非常不友好”,。
不穩(wěn)定，無法提供保護
黃金這一世界上最有價值的“保值方式”,，在過去的近半個世紀(jì)中已經(jīng)被證明是糟糕的投資產(chǎn)品,。1974年至今，金價恰好翻了一番,，至每盎司1800美元——與之相比,，衡量消費者通脹的主要指標(biāo)CPI，上漲了整整6倍,。所以,，黃金絕不是對沖通脹的良好工具。在動蕩時期,，比如1974年和1978年的石油危機以及經(jīng)濟大蕭條（Great Recession）時期,，黃金確實表現(xiàn)良好。但如果你在經(jīng)濟開始復(fù)蘇時不立刻賣出持有的黃金,，收益就會清零,。
黃金的缺點，是其巨幅的,、難以預(yù)測的波動性,。有時投機者會認(rèn)為黃金是一塊寶石，而在其他時期,，它又變成了一團垃圾,。總的來說,，黃金的波動性與美元和其他主要貨幣,，以及標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)（S&P 500）的波動大致相同。從長期來看,，美股投資者會從坎坷震蕩中獲得豐厚的回報,；而至于黃金，未必,。
那么,，比特幣呢？它的波動性是黃金的四倍,。從2017年12月到2018年2月,，其價格從1.9萬美元暴跌至6300美元；從2018年4月到2019年1月,，又下跌了65%,；緊接著在6月實現(xiàn)回升，但到12月又下跌了60%,。
自比特幣誕生以來,，美國沒有經(jīng)歷過任何通貨膨脹事件,，所以我們不知道，如果生活成本突然飆升,，比特幣會如何表現(xiàn),。但是，比特幣在去年年初美國股市關(guān)閉期間的表現(xiàn)已經(jīng)記錄在案：從2020年2月19日標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)收盤時的歷史新高,，到3月23日的探底,，該指數(shù)下跌了33%，而比特幣也正好下跌了三分之一——從9633美元跌至6416美元,?！斑@是一個至關(guān)重要的‘測試’?！钡赂ダ锼狗Q,，“比特幣與股市的大幅下跌完全相關(guān)?！币簿褪钦f,，比特幣并沒有提供任何支持者所預(yù)測的對沖和保護?！氨忍貛排c市場崩潰和經(jīng)濟衰退完全相關(guān),，這很重要?！钡赂ダ锼拐f,。
對于比特幣的走勢，他表示,，唯一比較明朗的,，恰恰是一條相反的路徑：隨著當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇，比特幣似乎會在經(jīng)濟上行時蓬勃發(fā)展,。但是,，即便是這種相關(guān)性也是可疑的。從2020年年中至今,，比特幣的價值一路飆升了五倍,，但在此過程中，它也經(jīng)歷過暴跌：去年8,、9月跌了20%,，今年1月跌了30%、2月跌了24%,，更不用說剛剛過去的4月,，價格跳水四分之一。
無形無實,，違背市場規(guī)律
盡管把黃金作為長期投資的選擇很不明智,，但它的價值仍然深受市場基本原理的影響。每年開采的黃金總量中,，有70%用于制造珠寶,，另外5%用于制造電子產(chǎn)品。因此對黃金的需求相當(dāng)穩(wěn)定,。當(dāng)金價下跌時,，礦山就會關(guān)閉或減產(chǎn)，從而推高價格,；而當(dāng)其價格飛漲時,，礦山會重新開放或者開始新的挖礦活動，增加黃金的供應(yīng)量,，并抑制金價繼續(xù)飆升,。當(dāng)然，黃金的價格之所以會違背這種基本供求規(guī)律,，是因為大量的投機活動經(jīng)常會導(dǎo)致其價格遠(yuǎn)高于生產(chǎn)成本,。然后，當(dāng)人們開始大量開采新礦后,，金價可能又會降到遠(yuǎn)低于成本的水平,，而且這種情況有時甚至?xí)掷m(xù)數(shù)年。
簡而言之,，即便在黃金市場最糟糕的時候,，當(dāng)產(chǎn)量超過需求、價格下跌時,，黃金也具有內(nèi)在的價值,。它能夠用來生產(chǎn)珠寶和電子產(chǎn)品，這方面的價值就為它的價格提供了保障,。
但與黃金不同,，比特幣不是由私人企業(yè)生產(chǎn)的。它的供應(yīng)由固有的協(xié)議確定,。不僅可發(fā)行的比特幣總量被限定在2100萬枚,，而且后續(xù)即將發(fā)行的230萬枚也將以恒定的速率流出，該速率也不會受到貨幣供應(yīng)量,、GDP或任何其他因素的影響而變化,。眼下，德弗里斯稱,，“礦工正賺得盆滿缽滿,。如果價格下跌80%，許多礦山將關(guān)閉，但獲得新比特幣的算法將更容易,，所需的計算能力也隨之更新,、變得更低。比特幣的發(fā)行速率保持不變,?！比绻麅r格上漲且挖礦計算機的數(shù)量翻倍，將不再有新比特幣出現(xiàn),。這與導(dǎo)致金價變動的因素完全不同,。
比特幣與美聯(lián)儲（Federal Reserve）的政策、國民收入或任何私企的決策都無關(guān),，這可能是一種優(yōu)勢,。明年開采的數(shù)量和永久存量都將受到嚴(yán)格限制。但是,，和比特幣類似的各種新幣也如雨后春筍般涌現(xiàn),，動搖著比特幣的統(tǒng)治地位。自2020年年初以來,，比特幣在加密貨幣總資產(chǎn)中的份額已經(jīng)從三分之二降至一半,。以太幣（Ether）的份額則翻了一番，占到14%以上,。
盡管以太幣的供應(yīng)量不像比特幣那樣受到限制,，但它的系統(tǒng)發(fā)行新幣的速度極其緩慢。因此,，它可以在儲值價值方面與比特幣抗衡,。而比特幣價格的上漲也吸引了一眾競爭者，它們都在激烈地角逐著“數(shù)字黃金”的頭銜,。
比特幣是一種“無形”資產(chǎn),。沒有人知道它真正的價值在哪里，因為它在現(xiàn)實生活中沒有任何能夠賺到錢的用途,。如果要評估比特幣粉絲埃隆·馬斯克的特斯拉公司的價值,，則可以對電動汽車的未來市場規(guī)模、特斯拉可能占有的份額,，以及企業(yè)的毛利率進行預(yù)測,。而對比特幣來說，沒有這類指標(biāo)能夠適用,。德弗里斯說：“未來,，比特幣里也不會有現(xiàn)金流或內(nèi)在價值，因此它的實際價值始終為零,。難怪比特幣迷們?yōu)樽约簱u旗助威的口號是‘為了保命,，抓緊上車’。”
要購買比特幣,，就必須持有一種堅定的信念：將來會有其他的狂熱信徒付出比當(dāng)初自己購買時更多的錢來接盤,。商界有一句說得在理的老話：“希望”不能被當(dāng)作一種策略?！靶拍睢币部赡苤皇且粋€不大靠譜的策略,。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
編譯：楊二一,、陳聰聰
Bitcoin zealots struggle to explain what the signature cryptocurrency is good for. Some of its fans claim that Bitcoin will soon compete with the dollar as a widely accepted currency; others say that its scarcity provides a great hedge against raging inflation and economic crises. It's also lauded as a "store of value," as the new digital gold whose price is destined to keep rising because its supply is fixed in stone and its popularity will only continue to soar.
In reality, Bitcoin has flopped as a vehicle for buying things, and it failed in its first big test as a safe harbor during the past year's stock market crash. Its extreme volatility––featuring as many collapses over the past three years as crude oil has suffered in two decades––means that it's anything but a reliable store of value. Its lurching trajectory of late is true to form: After hitting an all-time peak of $64,800 on April 14, Bitcoin skidded over 23% to $49,700 at midday on April 23, shedding over $200 billion in market cap. "The only 'use case' Bitcoin has left is hoping the value goes up and someone pays you more than you paid," says Alex de Vries, a Dutch economist who runs the website Digiconomist, which tracks Bitcoin's energy consumption.
Mostly a no-go for shopping
As a piece of global financial infrastructure, the Bitcoin network is hobbled by severely limited capacity. The worldwide network of miners can only process a maximum of seven transactions a second and today, the rate is running at around five, according to de Vries's estimates. In comparison, Visa can process up to 65,000 payments per second. Hence, any spike in the volume of payments or transfers causes a backlog. Customers must pay miners to register their transactions on the blockchain. As the system gets more and more congested, the miners grant priority to the transactions that offer the highest fees. The purchasers that pay the most go to the head of the line, and get their transactions finished first.
The process is always costly, and gets much more so as transactions swell or computing power goes offline. "For most of this year, the cost per transaction has been between $16 and $20," says de Vries. "But it hit $30 in February because of high volumes, and was $59 on April 23, because the flood at a coal mine in China caused a big loss of computing power. Then, the network got even more congested with lots of selling."
De Vries adds that Bitcoin performs poorly at the checkout counter. If you were to buy $100 in groceries using Bitcoin, it may take an hour to receive adequate confirmation. During that period, the store is at risk for any change in the price. "The price of Bitcoin could drop 10% in that hour, causing a loss for the retailer," says de Vries. "And the customer is paying the processing fee of $20 or even more." His conclusion: Unless you're using it to buy something with a luxury price tag, like a digital NFT artwork or a Tesla SUV, paying with Bitcoin is "hellishly expensive, and an extremely unfriendly user experience."
Too volatile to provide protection
Gold, the world's most prized "store of value," has proven a poor investment over the past nearly half-century. Since 1974, it has precisely doubled in price to $1800 an ounce, while the CPI, the main measure of consumer inflation, rose six-fold. It's anything but an inflation hedge. Gold does romp in periods of turmoil, as in the oil crises of 1974 and 1978, and the Great Recession. But if you didn't sell the precious metal when the economy started to recover, you'd give back the gains.
Gold's drawback is its big, unpredictable fluctuations. At times, speculators think its a jewel; in other periods, it's viewed as a dog. Overall, gold displays about the same volatility as the dollar and other major currencies, and as the S&P 500. The difference with U.S. stocks is that, over the long haul, you get well rewarded for the bumpy ride. With gold, you don't.
Yet Bitcoin is four times as volatile as gold. From December 2017 to February 2018, its price collapsed from $19,000 to $6,300. It experienced another 65% drop from April 2018 to January 2019, then recovered by June of that year, only to plummet another 60% by December.
The U.S. hasn't suffered any inflationary episodes in Bitcoin's lifetime, so we don't know how it would behave if the cost-of-living suddenly jumped. But we did see how Bitcoin fared during the shutdown-driven slide in U.S. stocks early last year. From the S&P 500's record close on February 19 to the bottom on March 23, the index shed 33%. Bitcoin dropped by exactly one third as well, from $9,633 to $6,416. "That was a crucial test," says de Vries. "Bitcoin was 100% correlated with the big drop in stocks." It didn't provide any of the protection its enthusiasts predicted. "When it mattered, Bitcoin was completely correlated with both the market crash and the recession's onset," observes de Vries.
The only apparent pattern, he says, is the opposite: Bitcoin seems to prosper when the economy is thriving, as in the current reopening recovery. But even that correlation is questionable. On the road to quintupling from mid-2020 to today, it weathered declines of 20% from August to September of last year, a 30% fall in January, and a 24% hit in February, not to mention the new almost one-quarter drop in mid-to-late April.
No tangible, fundamental value
Although gold has been a lousy long-term investment, its value is still strongly influenced by fundamentals. Seventy percent of all gold that's mined each year is used to manufacture jewelry, and another 5% is deployed in electronics. So demand is fairly steady. When prices drop, mines shut down or curtail production, pushing prices back up, and when its value leaps, mines reopen or new digging starts, raising the supply of bullion and curbing prices. Of course, the reason gold strays so far from the basics is that heavy speculation frequently sends its price far above production cost. Then, after lots of new mining starts, its price can fall way below what it costs to unearth, sometimes for years.
Put simply, gold has intrinsic value even in the worst of times, when output exceeds demand, and prices drop. Its value in jewelry and electronics provides a floor.
Unlike gold, Bitcoin isn't produced by a private enterprise. Its supply is determined by a protocol. It's not only that the total of all Bitcoin that can ever be issued is limited to 21 million coins. The coming 2.3 million will be released at a constant rate that doesn't vary with the money supply, GDP or any other factor. Right now, "miners are making tons of money," says de Vries. "If the price falls 80%, a lot of mines will shut down, but the algorithm for gaining new Bitcoin will get easier and match the new, lower computing power. The rate at which Bitcoin is released will stay exactly the same." If the price rises and the number of computers doubles, no more Bitcoin will be forthcoming. That's a totally different dynamic than the one governing gold.
That Bitcoin isn't linked to Federal Reserve policy, national income or the decisions of private companies might appear an advantage. The amount that's minted next year, and what can ever exist, is strictly limited. But new coins that can make similar claims are appearing all the time, and they're eroding Bitcoin's dominance. Since the start of 2020, Bitcoin's share of total capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen from two-thirds to one-half. Ether's share has doubled to over 14%.
Although Ether's supply isn't capped like Bitcoin's, its system releases new tokens at an extremely slow rate. So it can advance a comparable case as a store of value. The runup in Bitcoin's price is breeding lots of competitors vying for the title of digital gold.
Bitcoin is an "intangible" asset. No one knows what it's really worth because it has no practical, money-making uses. If you're looking to assess the value of Bitcoin fan Elon Musk's Tesla, you can run forecasts on the size of the future EV market and Tesla's probable share, and estimates of gross margins. For Bitcoin, no such metrics apply. "There's no future cash flow or intrinsic value in Bitcoin, so technically, its value is always zero," says de Vries. "No wonder Bitcoin fans' infamous war cry is Hodl, for 'hold on for dear life.'"
To buy Bitcoin, you have to believe that in the future, other true believers will be paying a lot more than you paid. A reigning cliche in the business world posits that hope isn't a strategy. Believing may not be a viable strategy either.
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