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比特幣狂泄,高盛為何仍看多Coinbase,?

Ann Sraders
2021-05-26

在加密貨幣的原生系統(tǒng)不斷擴(kuò)大的過(guò)程中,,Coinbase是涉足這一領(lǐng)域的最佳途徑,。

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如今,,在看漲Coinbase的多頭里,,可以加上高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)了。

5月24日,,高盛開(kāi)始將這家新上市的加密貨幣交易所評(píng)為“買(mǎi)入”一級(jí),,將該股在未來(lái)12個(gè)月內(nèi)的目標(biāo)價(jià)格定為每股306美元,,這意味著和5月21日的收盤(pán)價(jià)相比,,該股票可能會(huì)再飆升36%。(截至5月24日午盤(pán)交易,,這家剛上市不久的公司股價(jià)為226美元)

高盛為什么要這么做?根據(jù)該機(jī)構(gòu)分析師在5月24日給出的報(bào)告,他們認(rèn)為,,“在加密貨幣的原生系統(tǒng)不斷擴(kuò)大的過(guò)程中,,Coinbase是涉足這一領(lǐng)域的最佳途徑”。

盡管Coinbase仍然只是一個(gè)“初生”的生態(tài)系統(tǒng),,也不是高盛基本盤(pán)的重要組成部分,,但是高盛表示,它正在關(guān)注相關(guān)的技術(shù)增長(zhǎng)及應(yīng)用狀況,,例如基于穩(wěn)定代幣的支付方式,、去中心化金融(DeFi)創(chuàng)新或自動(dòng)區(qū)塊鏈應(yīng)用、非同質(zhì)化代幣(NFT),,以及“為現(xiàn)實(shí)資產(chǎn)的代幣化創(chuàng)造市場(chǎng)”,。

高盛的分析師寫(xiě)道:“如果那些有意義的經(jīng)濟(jì)成分能夠隨著時(shí)間的推移向區(qū)塊鏈和加密貨幣原生技術(shù)過(guò)渡,作為這一生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的金融基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,,[Coinbase]的地位非常關(guān)鍵,它將前途無(wú)量,,從中受益巨大,。”(分析師還指出,,Coinbase的安全性和合規(guī)性也可以助此一臂之力,。)

除了在區(qū)塊鏈生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中的作用,高盛還預(yù)測(cè),,Coinbase從交易手續(xù)費(fèi)中獲得的收入也將強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng),,這無(wú)疑是Coinbase最大的收入來(lái)源:“短期內(nèi),用戶數(shù)量持續(xù)大增,,這[將]推動(dòng)這部分業(yè)務(wù)實(shí)現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健,、有機(jī)的增長(zhǎng),?!?/p>

和其他分析師一樣,,高盛的團(tuán)隊(duì)也指出,,投資者可能“過(guò)于關(guān)注”在Coinbase上交易的,,例如比特幣(Bitcoin)和以太坊(Ethereum)等加密貨幣的價(jià)格漲跌,,而忽略了一個(gè)事實(shí),即利好Coinbase的恰恰是波動(dòng)性本身,,這和傳統(tǒng)意義上的股票或證券經(jīng)紀(jì)公司業(yè)務(wù)模式類似,。最近,,就在上周加密貨幣跌得最慘烈的那天,投資機(jī)構(gòu)D.A. Davidson的分析師吉爾?盧里亞告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“波動(dòng)性是真正推動(dòng)Coinbase業(yè)績(jī)的因素——它要人們買(mǎi)賣比特幣……而不管比特幣的漲跌,?!?/p>

與其他華爾街人一樣,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,,高盛并不認(rèn)為交易手續(xù)費(fèi)是Coinbase唯一的籌碼:“雖然[Coinbase]現(xiàn)在非交易手續(xù)費(fèi)的收入只占4%,,但我們相信,,該公司會(huì)慢慢上線更多輔助功能,,除了其核心業(yè)務(wù),這些來(lái)自訂戶和其他服務(wù)的額外收入也可能大漲,。”包括抵押式貸款(類似于保證金貸款),,以及機(jī)構(gòu)用戶業(yè)務(wù)的進(jìn)一步增加,。實(shí)際上,高盛的報(bào)告指出:“盡管我們認(rèn)為該公司現(xiàn)在的核心業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭可觀,,并有望進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大其盈利能力,,但我們還看到,留給他們拓展新業(yè)務(wù)的空間非常大,,能夠讓他們獲得更穩(wěn)定,、源源不斷的收入?!?/p>

當(dāng)然,,高盛也考慮到Coinbase中存在的一些主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。包括對(duì)加密貨幣行業(yè)的監(jiān)管,、波動(dòng)性降低,、幣價(jià)下跌,、交易手續(xù)費(fèi)率下跌等。

確實(shí),,正如盧里亞指出的那樣:“從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,,Coinbase的價(jià)格和市值將與加密經(jīng)濟(jì)行業(yè)的整體成功聯(lián)系在一起,而這還是與加密貨幣的價(jià)格密切相關(guān),?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳聰聰

如今,在看漲Coinbase的多頭里,,可以加上高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)了,。

5月24日,高盛開(kāi)始將這家新上市的加密貨幣交易所評(píng)為“買(mǎi)入”一級(jí),,將該股在未來(lái)12個(gè)月內(nèi)的目標(biāo)價(jià)格定為每股306美元,,這意味著和5月21日的收盤(pán)價(jià)相比,該股票可能會(huì)再飆升36%,。(截至5月24日午盤(pán)交易,,這家剛上市不久的公司股價(jià)為226美元)

高盛為什么要這么做?根據(jù)該機(jī)構(gòu)分析師在5月24日給出的報(bào)告,,他們認(rèn)為,,“在加密貨幣的原生系統(tǒng)不斷擴(kuò)大的過(guò)程中,Coinbase是涉足這一領(lǐng)域的最佳途徑”,。

盡管Coinbase仍然只是一個(gè)“初生”的生態(tài)系統(tǒng),,也不是高盛基本盤(pán)的重要組成部分,但是高盛表示,,它正在關(guān)注相關(guān)的技術(shù)增長(zhǎng)及應(yīng)用狀況,,例如基于穩(wěn)定代幣的支付方式、去中心化金融(DeFi)創(chuàng)新或自動(dòng)區(qū)塊鏈應(yīng)用,、非同質(zhì)化代幣(NFT),,以及“為現(xiàn)實(shí)資產(chǎn)的代幣化創(chuàng)造市場(chǎng)”。

高盛的分析師寫(xiě)道:“如果那些有意義的經(jīng)濟(jì)成分能夠隨著時(shí)間的推移向區(qū)塊鏈和加密貨幣原生技術(shù)過(guò)渡,,作為這一生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的金融基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,,[Coinbase]的地位非常關(guān)鍵,它將前途無(wú)量,,從中受益巨大,。”(分析師還指出,,Coinbase的安全性和合規(guī)性也可以助此一臂之力,。)

除了在區(qū)塊鏈生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中的作用,,高盛還預(yù)測(cè),,Coinbase從交易手續(xù)費(fèi)中獲得的收入也將強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng),這無(wú)疑是Coinbase最大的收入來(lái)源:“短期內(nèi),,用戶數(shù)量持續(xù)大增,這[將]推動(dòng)這部分業(yè)務(wù)實(shí)現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健,、有機(jī)的增長(zhǎng),。”

和其他分析師一樣,,高盛的團(tuán)隊(duì)也指出,,投資者可能“過(guò)于關(guān)注”在Coinbase上交易的,,例如比特幣(Bitcoin)和以太坊(Ethereum)等加密貨幣的價(jià)格漲跌,而忽略了一個(gè)事實(shí),,即利好Coinbase的恰恰是波動(dòng)性本身,,這和傳統(tǒng)意義上的股票或證券經(jīng)紀(jì)公司業(yè)務(wù)模式類似。最近,,就在上周加密貨幣跌得最慘烈的那天,投資機(jī)構(gòu)D.A. Davidson的分析師吉爾?盧里亞告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“波動(dòng)性是真正推動(dòng)Coinbase業(yè)績(jī)的因素——它要人們買(mǎi)賣比特幣……而不管比特幣的漲跌,?!?/p>

與其他華爾街人一樣,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,,高盛并不認(rèn)為交易手續(xù)費(fèi)是Coinbase唯一的籌碼:“雖然[Coinbase]現(xiàn)在非交易手續(xù)費(fèi)的收入只占4%,,但我們相信,該公司會(huì)慢慢上線更多輔助功能,,除了其核心業(yè)務(wù),,這些來(lái)自訂戶和其他服務(wù)的額外收入也可能大漲,?!卑ǖ盅菏劫J款(類似于保證金貸款),,以及機(jī)構(gòu)用戶業(yè)務(wù)的進(jìn)一步增加,。實(shí)際上,,高盛的報(bào)告指出:“盡管我們認(rèn)為該公司現(xiàn)在的核心業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭可觀,,并有望進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大其盈利能力,,但我們還看到,,留給他們拓展新業(yè)務(wù)的空間非常大,能夠讓他們獲得更穩(wěn)定,、源源不斷的收入?!?/p>

當(dāng)然,,高盛也考慮到Coinbase中存在的一些主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。包括對(duì)加密貨幣行業(yè)的監(jiān)管,、波動(dòng)性降低、幣價(jià)下跌,、交易手續(xù)費(fèi)率下跌等,。

確實(shí),,正如盧里亞指出的那樣:“從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,Coinbase的價(jià)格和市值將與加密經(jīng)濟(jì)行業(yè)的整體成功聯(lián)系在一起,,而這還是與加密貨幣的價(jià)格密切相關(guān),。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳聰聰

You can add Goldman Sachs to the list of Coinbase bulls.

The firm initiated coverage of the newly public cryptocurrency exchange on May 24 with a "buy" rating, assigning it a 12-month price target of $306 per share—implying that the stock could soar another 36% from its May 21 close price. (As of early afternoon trading on May 24, the stock is at $226, having had a rough debut so far in the public markets.)

Among the many reasons for that call? Goldman analysts believe Coinbase is "the best way to gain exposure to the expansion of the crypto-native ecosystem," the analysts wrote in the May 24 report.

Though it's still a "nascent" ecosystem and not a big part of Goldman's base case for Coinbase, the firm says it's watching the growth and adoption of technologies like stablecoin-based payments; "innovations" in DeFi, or decentralized autonomous blockchain applications; and NFTs, or non-fungible tokens and the "creation of markets for tokenized, real-world assets."

"If meaningful parts of the economy can transition to blockchain and crypto-native technology over time," the analysts wrote, "we see significant opportunity for [Coinbase] to benefit from its status as a critical element of the financial infrastructure for the ecosystem." (The analysts also point out that Coinbase's security and regulatory compliance helps bolster that case.)

Apart from Coinbase's role in the blockchain ecosystem, Goldman sees strong growth in the firm's transaction revenues, far and away Coinbase's biggest slice of sales, predicting that near term, "continued strong growth in users [will be] driving solid organic growth for the business."

Much like other analysts, the Goldman team note that investors may be "too focused" on the price of stalwart coins traded on Coinbase, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, instead of on the fact that volatility itself is a boon for the firm's business, just like at traditional stock or securities brokerages. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria recently told Fortune on an especially rough day for crypto last week that, "The level of volatility is what really drives results for Coinbase—people buying and selling Bitcoin... not Bitcoin going up or down."

Like others on the Street, Goldman doesn't see trading fees as the only name of the game for the longer term: The firm notes that "While just 4% of [Coinbase’s] revenue now comes from non-trading activities, we believe subscription and services revenue has the potential to see outsized growth relative to the core run rate of the business as [Coinbase] rolls out additional ancillary services over time," including collateralized lending (which they describe as similar to margin lending) and the further growth of the firm's institutional business. Indeed, Goldman's report notes that "while we believe the core business today offers an attractive growth profile with the potential to drive high levels of profitability, we see significant white space for new initiatives to drive more stable and recurring revenue streams."

Of course, Goldman is eyeing a few key risks for Coinbase, too. That includes regulation of the cryptocurrency space, lower volatility and declining prices of coins, and lower commission rates.

Indeed, as D.A. Davidson's Luria noted, "long term, Coinbase's price and value is going to be tied to the overall success of the crypto economy, which is tied to crypto prices."

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