幾十年來,美國兩黨議員都擁有強(qiáng)大的政治武器,。只要兩個(gè)神奇的詞組合在一起,,任何一項(xiàng)法案都應(yīng)該被叫停:國家債務(wù)。
當(dāng)前,,政治格局迎來前所未有的轉(zhuǎn)變,,加之史無前例的新冠疫情爆發(fā)和經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī),“國家債務(wù)”這幾個(gè)字彷佛也沒有什么意義了,。
據(jù)知情人士透露,,6月10日,由兩黨參議員組成的小組宣布已經(jīng)就一項(xiàng)投資總額高達(dá)1.2萬億美元的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)法案達(dá)成了初步協(xié)議,,并且強(qiáng)調(diào)不會(huì)通過增稅來抵消項(xiàng)目成本,。該法案仍然需要提交給白宮和參議院共和黨會(huì)議進(jìn)行審議,標(biāo)志著這個(gè)一度由赤字鷹派主導(dǎo)的立法機(jī)構(gòu)開始向著鴿派轉(zhuǎn)變,。
在過去的幾年里,,不管是民主黨還是共和黨掌權(quán),兩黨都輪流辯稱債務(wù)問題積重難返,,并表示對(duì)財(cái)政赤字大為不滿,。在數(shù)百萬美元的游說活動(dòng)和眾多智庫的支持下,緊縮性財(cái)政政策一直存在,。
在前總統(tǒng)貝拉克·奧巴馬執(zhí)政期間,,眾議院議長保羅·瑞安一直疾呼取消預(yù)算赤字,并且以此為據(jù)強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)在經(jīng)濟(jì)大衰退(Great Recession)的最嚴(yán)重時(shí)期向各州和失業(yè)成年人提供額外援助,。根據(jù)保羅的說法,,美國正處于債務(wù)危機(jī)的邊緣,情況十分嚴(yán)重,,甚至?xí)?dǎo)致整個(gè)社會(huì)的全面崩潰,。
在唐納德·特朗普上任后,瑞安改變了立場,。2018年至2022年預(yù)算赤字增加遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過1萬億美元,,這是因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)減稅政策的出臺(tái)和綜合性支出法案的大幅增加。對(duì)于這兩項(xiàng)舉措,瑞安表示大力支持,。
同樣地,,南希·佩洛西表示支持奧巴馬政府的財(cái)政支出政策,,大肆批評(píng)特朗普,,“共和黨在一個(gè)接一個(gè)的財(cái)政預(yù)算案中暴露了其真實(shí)議程:增加數(shù)萬億美元的赤字,然后利用這些赤字來證明削減老年人和家庭所依賴的醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)(Medicare),、醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助(Medicaid)和社會(huì)保障(Social Security)是合理舉措,。”2018年,,美國財(cái)政部(Treasury Department)發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告顯示,,2018財(cái)年的美國聯(lián)邦政府財(cái)政赤字高達(dá)7790億美元,比上一財(cái)年增長17%,,創(chuàng)2012年以來的新高,。
黑石集團(tuán)(Blackstone)已故的億萬富翁創(chuàng)始人彼得·G·彼得森曾經(jīng)在美國前總統(tǒng)理查德·尼克松政府擔(dān)任商務(wù)部部長,后來投入大量精力和資金創(chuàng)立彼得森基金會(huì)(Peterson Foundation),,致力于推動(dòng)解決美國的國債問題,。
每年,彼得森基金會(huì)都會(huì)召開一次財(cái)政峰會(huì),,致力于探討解決美國政府長期的債務(wù)問題,。在峰會(huì)上,佩洛西,、前總統(tǒng)比爾·克林頓和財(cái)政部前部長史蒂夫·姆努欽等政客紛紛在口頭上對(duì)赤字鷹派人士表示,,美國政府不斷增長的債務(wù)和赤字會(huì)阻礙對(duì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、教育和研發(fā)領(lǐng)域的公共投資,,這將導(dǎo)致人們工資降低,,妨礙經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。
自1931年以來,,美國聯(lián)邦政府的財(cái)政預(yù)算幾乎一直處于赤字狀態(tài),,鷹派經(jīng)常表明擔(dān)憂的債務(wù)危機(jī)遠(yuǎn)非迫在眉睫的問題。較低的美國國債收益率也表明,,大多數(shù)人相信美國經(jīng)濟(jì)足夠強(qiáng)勁,,政府可以承擔(dān)更多債務(wù)。
在經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問委員會(huì)(Council of Economic Advisers)任職的賈里德·伯恩斯坦等拜登團(tuán)隊(duì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們則認(rèn)為,,現(xiàn)在的低利率環(huán)境實(shí)際上正是承擔(dān)更多債務(wù)的好時(shí)機(jī),,由那些貸款推動(dòng)的項(xiàng)目和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)會(huì)創(chuàng)造財(cái)政盈余,或至少帶動(dòng)更強(qiáng)勁的GDP增長,。
全球新冠疫情肆虐的現(xiàn)實(shí),,加上唐納德·特朗普對(duì)共和黨的重新定義(就連特朗普總統(tǒng)的前任幕僚長米克·馬爾瓦尼在疫情爆發(fā)之前就表示,,再也“沒有人關(guān)心”預(yù)算赤字了),以及彼得森的離世,,種種事件已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致這些政客們的運(yùn)作格局發(fā)生越來越多的改變,。似乎,這是兩黨長久以來第一次沒有用預(yù)算赤字或增加國家債務(wù)作為借口抨擊對(duì)手,。事實(shí)上,他們的做法恰恰相反,。
就美國總統(tǒng)喬·拜登的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)方案進(jìn)行談判時(shí),,共和黨沒有像過去幾年那樣敲響警鐘,提出財(cái)政支出的問題,。實(shí)際上,,法案的投資總額反而迅速從最初的5680億美元攀升至1.2萬億美元。同時(shí)共和黨表示更愿意增加預(yù)算赤字,,而不是通過提高企業(yè)稅來抵消成本,,后者是拜登提議所提議的。
共和黨和民主黨就救濟(jì)法案和刺激項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃基本達(dá)成共識(shí),,拜登則提出了一項(xiàng)創(chuàng)歷史新高的2022年預(yù)算案,,總值高達(dá)6萬億美元,到2031年將總支出增加到8.2萬億美元,。同時(shí)在未來十年,,赤字將超過1.3萬億美元。
今年7月將決定赤字鷹派是落下帷幕,,還是只是像大家一樣處于“隔離期”,。2019年,國會(huì)暫停實(shí)施美國的債務(wù)上限制度(也就是對(duì)聯(lián)邦政府借款能力的立法限制),,預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)一直暫停到2021年7月31日,。
這意味著美國國會(huì)可能得在今年8月休會(huì)之前達(dá)成共識(shí),解決這一問題,。許多分析人士表示,,美國在7月下旬將有4500億美元的現(xiàn)金余額,因此在秋季之前能夠避免談判債務(wù)問題,。不過,,美國財(cái)政部警告稱,聯(lián)邦政府可能在今年夏天就會(huì)觸及債務(wù)上限,。
關(guān)于債務(wù)上限的辯論已經(jīng)成為共和黨用來限制其他支出的關(guān)鍵談判籌碼,,而非僅僅要求增加預(yù)算。
占多數(shù)的民主黨已經(jīng)表示,,無意限制支出或就債務(wù)上限進(jìn)行談判,。康涅狄格州參議員克里斯·墨菲明確說:“我們不會(huì)就債務(wù)上限進(jìn)行談判?!钡瓦B共和黨也不確定這一次他們是否會(huì)努力爭取支出改革,。
在關(guān)于債務(wù)上限的辯論中,堅(jiān)定的財(cái)政鷹派人物,、共和黨參議員蘭德·保羅被問及其他共和黨人是否會(huì)堅(jiān)定不移地要求支出改革時(shí),,他迅速地反駁道:“我對(duì)此表示懷疑?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:三疊瀑
幾十年來,,美國兩黨議員都擁有強(qiáng)大的政治武器。只要兩個(gè)神奇的詞組合在一起,,任何一項(xiàng)法案都應(yīng)該被叫停:國家債務(wù),。
當(dāng)前,政治格局迎來前所未有的轉(zhuǎn)變,,加之史無前例的新冠疫情爆發(fā)和經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī),,“國家債務(wù)”這幾個(gè)字彷佛也沒有什么意義了。
據(jù)知情人士透露,,6月10日,,由兩黨參議員組成的小組宣布已經(jīng)就一項(xiàng)投資總額高達(dá)1.2萬億美元的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)法案達(dá)成了初步協(xié)議,并且強(qiáng)調(diào)不會(huì)通過增稅來抵消項(xiàng)目成本,。該法案仍然需要提交給白宮和參議院共和黨會(huì)議進(jìn)行審議,,標(biāo)志著這個(gè)一度由赤字鷹派主導(dǎo)的立法機(jī)構(gòu)開始向著鴿派轉(zhuǎn)變。
在過去的幾年里,,不管是民主黨還是共和黨掌權(quán),,兩黨都輪流辯稱債務(wù)問題積重難返,并表示對(duì)財(cái)政赤字大為不滿,。在數(shù)百萬美元的游說活動(dòng)和眾多智庫的支持下,,緊縮性財(cái)政政策一直存在。
在前總統(tǒng)貝拉克·奧巴馬執(zhí)政期間,,眾議院議長保羅·瑞安一直疾呼取消預(yù)算赤字,,并且以此為據(jù)強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)在經(jīng)濟(jì)大衰退(Great Recession)的最嚴(yán)重時(shí)期向各州和失業(yè)成年人提供額外援助。根據(jù)保羅的說法,,美國正處于債務(wù)危機(jī)的邊緣,,情況十分嚴(yán)重,甚至?xí)?dǎo)致整個(gè)社會(huì)的全面崩潰,。
在唐納德·特朗普上任后,,瑞安改變了立場。2018年至2022年預(yù)算赤字增加遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過1萬億美元,,這是因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)減稅政策的出臺(tái)和綜合性支出法案的大幅增加,。對(duì)于這兩項(xiàng)舉措,,瑞安表示大力支持。
同樣地,,南?!づ迓逦鞅硎局С謯W巴馬政府的財(cái)政支出政策,大肆批評(píng)特朗普,,“共和黨在一個(gè)接一個(gè)的財(cái)政預(yù)算案中暴露了其真實(shí)議程:增加數(shù)萬億美元的赤字,,然后利用這些赤字來證明削減老年人和家庭所依賴的醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)(Medicare)、醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助(Medicaid)和社會(huì)保障(Social Security)是合理舉措,?!?018年,美國財(cái)政部(Treasury Department)發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告顯示,,2018財(cái)年的美國聯(lián)邦政府財(cái)政赤字高達(dá)7790億美元,比上一財(cái)年增長17%,,創(chuàng)2012年以來的新高,。
黑石集團(tuán)(Blackstone)已故的億萬富翁創(chuàng)始人彼得·G·彼得森曾經(jīng)在美國前總統(tǒng)理查德·尼克松政府擔(dān)任商務(wù)部部長,后來投入大量精力和資金創(chuàng)立彼得森基金會(huì)(Peterson Foundation),,致力于推動(dòng)解決美國的國債問題,。
每年,彼得森基金會(huì)都會(huì)召開一次財(cái)政峰會(huì),,致力于探討解決美國政府長期的債務(wù)問題,。在峰會(huì)上,佩洛西,、前總統(tǒng)比爾·克林頓和財(cái)政部前部長史蒂夫·姆努欽等政客紛紛在口頭上對(duì)赤字鷹派人士表示,,美國政府不斷增長的債務(wù)和赤字會(huì)阻礙對(duì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、教育和研發(fā)領(lǐng)域的公共投資,,這將導(dǎo)致人們工資降低,,妨礙經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。
自1931年以來,,美國聯(lián)邦政府的財(cái)政預(yù)算幾乎一直處于赤字狀態(tài),,鷹派經(jīng)常表明擔(dān)憂的債務(wù)危機(jī)遠(yuǎn)非迫在眉睫的問題。較低的美國國債收益率也表明,,大多數(shù)人相信美國經(jīng)濟(jì)足夠強(qiáng)勁,,政府可以承擔(dān)更多債務(wù)。
在經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問委員會(huì)(Council of Economic Advisers)任職的賈里德·伯恩斯坦等拜登團(tuán)隊(duì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們則認(rèn)為,,現(xiàn)在的低利率環(huán)境實(shí)際上正是承擔(dān)更多債務(wù)的好時(shí)機(jī),,由那些貸款推動(dòng)的項(xiàng)目和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)會(huì)創(chuàng)造財(cái)政盈余,或至少帶動(dòng)更強(qiáng)勁的GDP增長,。
全球新冠疫情肆虐的現(xiàn)實(shí),,加上唐納德·特朗普對(duì)共和黨的重新定義(就連特朗普總統(tǒng)的前任幕僚長米克·馬爾瓦尼在疫情爆發(fā)之前就表示,,再也“沒有人關(guān)心”預(yù)算赤字了),以及彼得森的離世,,種種事件已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致這些政客們的運(yùn)作格局發(fā)生越來越多的改變,。似乎,這是兩黨長久以來第一次沒有用預(yù)算赤字或增加國家債務(wù)作為借口抨擊對(duì)手,。事實(shí)上,,他們的做法恰恰相反。
就美國總統(tǒng)喬·拜登的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)方案進(jìn)行談判時(shí),,共和黨沒有像過去幾年那樣敲響警鐘,,提出財(cái)政支出的問題。實(shí)際上,,法案的投資總額反而迅速從最初的5680億美元攀升至1.2萬億美元,。同時(shí)共和黨表示更愿意增加預(yù)算赤字,而不是通過提高企業(yè)稅來抵消成本,,后者是拜登提議所提議的,。
共和黨和民主黨就救濟(jì)法案和刺激項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃基本達(dá)成共識(shí),拜登則提出了一項(xiàng)創(chuàng)歷史新高的2022年預(yù)算案,,總值高達(dá)6萬億美元,,到2031年將總支出增加到8.2萬億美元。同時(shí)在未來十年,,赤字將超過1.3萬億美元,。
今年7月將決定赤字鷹派是落下帷幕,還是只是像大家一樣處于“隔離期”,。2019年,,國會(huì)暫停實(shí)施美國的債務(wù)上限制度(也就是對(duì)聯(lián)邦政府借款能力的立法限制),預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)一直暫停到2021年7月31日,。
這意味著美國國會(huì)可能得在今年8月休會(huì)之前達(dá)成共識(shí),,解決這一問題。許多分析人士表示,,美國在7月下旬將有4500億美元的現(xiàn)金余額,,因此在秋季之前能夠避免談判債務(wù)問題。不過,,美國財(cái)政部警告稱,,聯(lián)邦政府可能在今年夏天就會(huì)觸及債務(wù)上限。
關(guān)于債務(wù)上限的辯論已經(jīng)成為共和黨用來限制其他支出的關(guān)鍵談判籌碼,,而非僅僅要求增加預(yù)算,。
占多數(shù)的民主黨已經(jīng)表示,無意限制支出或就債務(wù)上限進(jìn)行談判,??的腋裰輩⒆h員克里斯·墨菲明確說:“我們不會(huì)就債務(wù)上限進(jìn)行談判,。”但就連共和黨也不確定這一次他們是否會(huì)努力爭取支出改革,。
在關(guān)于債務(wù)上限的辯論中,,堅(jiān)定的財(cái)政鷹派人物、共和黨參議員蘭德·保羅被問及其他共和黨人是否會(huì)堅(jiān)定不移地要求支出改革時(shí),,他迅速地反駁道:“我對(duì)此表示懷疑,。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:三疊瀑
For decades, elected officials on both sides of the aisle have held a powerful political weapon at their sides. Two magic words was all it took to explain why any piece of legislation should be stopped: national debt.
But in an unprecedented political landscape, and a health and economic crisis of a history-altering scale, those words are losing their meaning.
On June 10, a bipartisan group of Senators announced that they had reached a tentative deal on an infrastructure bill with a total investment of $1.2 trillion, according to officials familiar with the deal, and no increase in taxes to help offset the cost. The plan, which still needs to be presented to the White House and the Senate Republican conference, marks a dovish transformation to a legislative body once dominated by deficit hawks.
In years past, Democrats and Republicans took turns arguing that the debt was on an unsustainable trajectory and frowning upon deficit spending depending on who was in power. Austerity measures, backed by millions of dollars in lobbying and numerous think tanks, were always there.
When former president Barack Obama was in power, House Speaker Paul Ryan became a full-fledged deficit warrior, using it as a way to oppose sending additional aid to states and unemployed adults at the height of the Great Recession. According to Paul, America was teetering on the brink of a debt crisis so significant it would lead to the downfall of society as we know it.
Then Donald Trump took office and Ryan backtracked, deficits between the 2018 and 2022 spending period increased by well over $1 trillion because of corporate tax cuts and a hefty increase in the omnibus spending bill, both of which he backed.
In a similar vein, Nancy Pelosi backed spending measures under Obama and then criticized Trump, “Republicans have exposed their true agenda in budget after budget: add trillions to the deficit, and then use those deficits to justify slashing the Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security that seniors and families rely on,” she said in 2018 following a Treasury Department report that the U.S. budget deficit rose 17% to $779 billion that year, the highest level since 2012.
Peter G. Peterson, the late billionaire founder of Blackstone who worked under former President Richard Nixon as Secretary of Commerce, dedicated himself and much of his money to creating a foundation that pushed the issue of the national debt.
Each year the Peterson Foundation held a Fiscal Summit dedicated to addressing the nation's long-term debt. There, politicians like Pelosi, former president Bill Clinton, and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin paid lip service to deficit hawks, saying that the growing U.S. debt and deficit would stop public investment in infrastructure, education, and R&D, that it would decrease wages and stymie economic growth.
The federal government has run at a budget deficit pretty much nonstop since 1931, and the threat of default, which hawks often cite, is nowhere near imminent. Low yields on government bonds show that most agree: the U.S. economy is strong enough to take on more debt.
Biden economists like Jared Bernstein, who serves on the Council of Economic Advisers, argue that low interest rates actually make now a good time to take on more debt and that the programs and infrastructure that those loans fuel will contribute to a surplus, or at least a stronger GDP.
The realities of the Covid-19 pandemic, coupled with Donald Trump’s reimagining of the Republican party (even President Trump’s own former chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, declared pre-Covid that “nobody cares” about the deficit anymore) and the death of Peterson, have increasingly altered the landscape in which these politicos function. For the first time in a long time, it appears that both parties have eschewed using deficit spending or an increased national debt as an excuse to knock down opponents. In fact, they’re doing just the opposite.
In ongoing negotiations over President Joe Biden’s infrastructure plan, Republicans aren’t ringing the spending alarm, as they would have in subsequent years. In fact, they came up quickly and steeply from their $568 billion opening bid to $1.2 trillion and argued that they’d prefer to increase deficit spending instead of offsetting the cost of the bill with an increase in corporate tax rates, as Biden has proposed.
Republicans and Democrats largely agreed on covid relief bills and stimulus checks and Biden has proposed a record-breaking $6 trillion budget that would call to raise spending to $8.2 trillion by 2031. Deficits would run above $1.3 trillion over the next decade.
This July will determine if the deficit hawks are indeed dead or if they were just quarantining like the rest of us. In 2019, Congress suspended the debt ceiling, the legislative limit on the amount of money that the federal government can borrow, through July 31, 2021.
That means they might have to deal with it ahead of their August recess this summer. Many analysts say that the U.S. will have a $450 billion cash cushion in late July and will be able to avoid talks until the fall but the Treasury is warning that the federal government could run out of borrowing room this summer.
The debate over the ceiling has become a key bargaining chip used by Republicans who use it to limit other spending instead of just passing through a clean increase.
The Democratic majority has already indicated that it has no intentions of limiting spending or negotiating over the ceiling. “We don’t negotiate on the debt ceiling,” said Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut. But even Republicans aren’t sure that they’ll fight hard for spending reform this time around.
When asked if other Republicans would be unbending in their demand for spending reform during a debt ceiling debate staunch fiscal hawk Senator Rand Paul had a quick retort, “I doubt it.”