北美木材主產(chǎn)地野火肆虐,，鋸木廠削減產(chǎn)能
Lance Lambert
2021-07-23
7月20日，加拿大不列顛哥倫比亞省因為發(fā)生近300處野火,，宣布進入緊急狀態(tài),。當?shù)氐闹еa(chǎn)業(yè)木材行業(yè)已經(jīng)受到嚴重沖擊。當天晚些時候,，不列顛哥倫比亞省的林業(yè)巨頭加福林業(yè)（Canfor Corporation）宣布,，受到野火的影響，該公司將削減鋸木廠產(chǎn)能約1.15億板英尺,。
加福林業(yè)的北美業(yè)務(wù)執(zhí)行副總裁史蒂芬?麥奇在新聞稿中稱：“加拿大西部發(fā)生的野火嚴重影響了供應(yīng)鏈以及我們的產(chǎn)品運輸,。因此，我們將從7月26日起,，臨時削減加拿大鋸木廠的產(chǎn)量,。”
產(chǎn)能減少1.15億板英尺對木材行業(yè)意味著什么,？Deacon Lumber公司的首席執(zhí)行官斯廷森?迪恩于7月20日對《財富》雜志說：“正常情況下削減產(chǎn)能可能不會有影響,，但在當前的市場環(huán)境下卻意義重大?！备匾氖?，他認為這意味著未來該公司會進一步削減產(chǎn)能。
不列顛哥倫比亞省是北美的木材產(chǎn)業(yè)中心,，如果當?shù)氐囊盎鹧葑兂煽膳碌囊盎鸺?，無疑會推高木材價格。在北美規(guī)模最大的六家木材生產(chǎn)商中，有三家位于不列顛哥倫比亞省,，它們分別是West Fraser Timber公司（第1位）,、加福林業(yè)（第2位）和Interfor公司（第6位）。當?shù)啬静漠a(chǎn)量的90%被用于出口,，其中大部分銷往美國,。
對于年產(chǎn)700億板英尺的木材行業(yè)來說，減產(chǎn)1.15億板英尺只是九牛一毛,，但削減產(chǎn)能的時機對買家來說卻是非常糟糕,。最近幾周，木材供應(yīng)量反彈和需求降溫,，終于讓買家可以長舒一口氣,。今年春季，木材價格上漲超過300%,，但自5月底以來,，木材價格下跌了62%。削減產(chǎn)能可能令木材價格下跌的趨勢戛然而止,。
Fastmarkets RISI主要研究木材市場的高級經(jīng)濟學(xué)家達斯汀?賈爾伯特告訴《財富》雜志：“削減產(chǎn)能會導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)緊張,，但目前1億板英尺木材不會導(dǎo)致市場失衡……進一步削減產(chǎn)能才有可能影響市場?！?/p>
當加福林業(yè)公司宣布削減產(chǎn)能時,，恰逢木材價格跌至今年最低?！敦敻弧冯s志從Fastmarkets旗下的行業(yè)期刊《Random Lengths》獲得的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，上周，木材現(xiàn)貨市場價格下跌114美元,，跌至每千板英尺575美元,。雖然這個價格依舊比新冠疫情之前上漲了61%，但與5月28日的史上最高價格1,515美元相比,，已經(jīng)大幅下跌,。
《財富》雜志此前曾經(jīng)指出，相比美國南部盛產(chǎn)的南方黃松,，加拿大軟木更受美國房屋建筑商的歡迎,。即使在新冠疫情爆發(fā)之前，由于野火,、昆蟲入侵和云杉樹生長速度緩慢等原因,，加拿大西部的軟木生產(chǎn)一直受到限制。因此,，木材生產(chǎn)商很難滿足新冠疫情導(dǎo)致的建房熱和DIY熱所帶來的巨大需求,，這導(dǎo)致木材價格暴漲,，直到最近才有所下降。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
翻譯：劉進龍
審校：汪皓
7月20日,，加拿大不列顛哥倫比亞省因為發(fā)生近300處野火,，宣布進入緊急狀態(tài)。當?shù)氐闹еa(chǎn)業(yè)木材行業(yè)已經(jīng)受到嚴重沖擊,。當天晚些時候,，不列顛哥倫比亞省的林業(yè)巨頭加福林業(yè)（Canfor Corporation）宣布，受到野火的影響,，該公司將削減鋸木廠產(chǎn)能約1.15億板英尺,。
加福林業(yè)的北美業(yè)務(wù)執(zhí)行副總裁史蒂芬?麥奇在新聞稿中稱：“加拿大西部發(fā)生的野火嚴重影響了供應(yīng)鏈以及我們的產(chǎn)品運輸。因此,，我們將從7月26日起,，臨時削減加拿大鋸木廠的產(chǎn)量?！?/p>
產(chǎn)能減少1.15億板英尺對木材行業(yè)意味著什么,？Deacon Lumber公司的首席執(zhí)行官斯廷森?迪恩于7月20日對《財富》雜志說：“正常情況下削減產(chǎn)能可能不會有影響，但在當前的市場環(huán)境下卻意義重大,?！备匾氖?，他認為這意味著未來該公司會進一步削減產(chǎn)能,。
不列顛哥倫比亞省是北美的木材產(chǎn)業(yè)中心，如果當?shù)氐囊盎鹧葑兂煽膳碌囊盎鸺?，無疑會推高木材價格,。在北美規(guī)模最大的六家木材生產(chǎn)商中，有三家位于不列顛哥倫比亞省,，它們分別是West Fraser Timber公司（第1位）,、加福林業(yè)（第2位）和Interfor公司（第6位）。當?shù)啬静漠a(chǎn)量的90%被用于出口,，其中大部分銷往美國,。
對于年產(chǎn)700億板英尺的木材行業(yè)來說，減產(chǎn)1.15億板英尺只是九牛一毛,，但削減產(chǎn)能的時機對買家來說卻是非常糟糕,。最近幾周，木材供應(yīng)量反彈和需求降溫,，終于讓買家可以長舒一口氣,。今年春季，木材價格上漲超過300%,，但自5月底以來,，木材價格下跌了62%,。削減產(chǎn)能可能令木材價格下跌的趨勢戛然而止。
Fastmarkets RISI主要研究木材市場的高級經(jīng)濟學(xué)家達斯汀?賈爾伯特告訴《財富》雜志：“削減產(chǎn)能會導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)緊張,，但目前1億板英尺木材不會導(dǎo)致市場失衡……進一步削減產(chǎn)能才有可能影響市場,。”
當加福林業(yè)公司宣布削減產(chǎn)能時,，恰逢木材價格跌至今年最低,。《財富》雜志從Fastmarkets旗下的行業(yè)期刊《Random Lengths》獲得的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，上周,，木材現(xiàn)貨市場價格下跌114美元，跌至每千板英尺575美元,。雖然這個價格依舊比新冠疫情之前上漲了61%,，但與5月28日的史上最高價格1,515美元相比，已經(jīng)大幅下跌,。
《財富》雜志此前曾經(jīng)指出,，相比美國南部盛產(chǎn)的南方黃松，加拿大軟木更受美國房屋建筑商的歡迎,。即使在新冠疫情爆發(fā)之前,，由于野火、昆蟲入侵和云杉樹生長速度緩慢等原因,，加拿大西部的軟木生產(chǎn)一直受到限制,。因此，木材生產(chǎn)商很難滿足新冠疫情導(dǎo)致的建房熱和DIY熱所帶來的巨大需求,，這導(dǎo)致木材價格暴漲,，直到最近才有所下降。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
翻譯：劉進龍
審校：汪皓
On July 20, British Columbia declared a state of emergency, as nearly 300 wildfires rage through the Canadian province. It's already hitting its crown jewel: Lumber. Later that day, British Columbia forestry titan Canfor Corporation announced it would curtail production at sawmills amounting to 115 million board feet of production capacity as a result of the wildfires.
"The wildfires burning in Western Canada are significantly impacting the supply chain and our ability to transport product to market. As a result, we are implementing short-term production curtailments at our Canadian sawmills beginning July 26," said Stephen Mackie, executive vice president of North American Operations at Canfor, in a released statement.
What does losing 115 million capacity mean for the industry? "Not that much normally but in this market it makes a difference," Stinson Dean, CEO of Deacon Lumber, told Fortune on July 20. More importantly, he said, it suggests more curtailments are on the way.
If this turns into an ugly wildfire season in British Columbia—the North American lumber mecca—it would undoubtedly increase lumber prices. Among the six largest North American lumber producers, three are located in British Columbia: West Fraser Timber (No. 1), Canfor (No. 2), and Interfor (No. 6). Over 90% of British Columbia's lumber output is exported, with the U.S. receiving most of it.
While 115 million board feet of production is a drop in the bucket for an industry with over 70 billion annual capacity, it's happening at a really bad time for buyers. In recent weeks, cooling demand coupled with rebounding lumber supply are finally giving buyers relief. This spring prices were up over 300%, however, since late May, lumber prices have dropped 62%. Losing capacity threatens that pullback.
"It will help [to] tighten supply, but as of right now, 100 million board feet of timber won't rebalance the market...it will take more curtailments to sway the market," Dustin Jalbert, a senior economist at Fastmarkets RISI, where he covers the lumber market, told Fortune.
This announcement comes just as lumber prices hit their lowest point of the year. Last week, the cash market price of lumber fell $114, to $575 per thousand board feet, according to data provided to Fortune by Fastmarkets’ Random Lengths, an industry trade publication. While that's still up 61% from its pre-covid price, it represents major price relief from the all-time high of $1,515 hit on May 28.
As Fortune has previously reported, Canadian softwood lumber—not the plentiful Southern Yellow Pine that dots the U.S. South—is the clear favorite among U.S. homebuilders. Even before the pandemic, softwood production in Western Canada was limited by a combination of past fires, beetle infestations, and the slow growth rate of spruce trees. As a result, lumber producers are struggling to meet the enormous demand from a boom in housing and DIY projects set off by the pandemic—and that has helped to create a huge increase in the price of lumber that only recently eased.
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