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美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)明年或加息三次,,對(duì)股市意味著什么,?

Anne Sraders
2021-12-18

這一次的周期完全不同于我們之前所經(jīng)歷的任何周期,。

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本周,整個(gè)華爾街都在問一個(gè)問題:美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)何時(shí)開始加息,?

為了尋找答案,,所有人都將目光投向了美國(guó)聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)(Federal Open Market Committee)在12月15日的會(huì)議。當(dāng)日,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)結(jié)束了為期兩天的會(huì)議,,發(fā)表聲明稱,將加快縮減債券購(gòu)買規(guī)模,,并預(yù)計(jì)在2022年加息三次,,以控制通貨膨脹的速度。

那么這對(duì)股市投資者來說意味著什么,?

德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的分析師發(fā)現(xiàn),,自1955年以來共有13個(gè)獨(dú)立的加息周期,平均持續(xù)時(shí)間不到兩年,。根據(jù)他們的研究,,按日線看,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)平均價(jià)格在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)“加息周期第一年通常都會(huì)出現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健的增長(zhǎng),,365天后的平均回報(bào)率為+7.7%”,。德意志銀行的分析師在12月13日的報(bào)告中寫道。

然而,,“這一水平在加息周期253天之后首次見頂,,直到452天之后才再次被突破,而且甚至到了第712天,,回報(bào)率依然低于其在第253天的水平,。”

自1955年以來美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息周期期間的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)平均表現(xiàn),,按日線看,,疲態(tài)開始于首次見頂之后9至10個(gè)月內(nèi)開始顯現(xiàn),而且會(huì)持續(xù)約一年的時(shí)間,。資料來源:Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP,GFD,。注:陰影區(qū)域代表已分析加息周期內(nèi)結(jié)果范圍

德意志銀行的分析師稱,這一結(jié)果“是上述13個(gè)加息周期的平均值,,從加息周期開始9至10個(gè)月之后,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)有一年多沒有出現(xiàn)正回報(bào)率”(重點(diǎn)強(qiáng)調(diào)),。然而上表還顯示:“隨后,,該指數(shù)在加息開始兩年后開始增長(zhǎng)?!?/p>

換句話說,,至少?gòu)臍v史上看,加息對(duì)股市的許多負(fù)面影響可能被推遲了,,在開始加息后,,股市可能會(huì)持續(xù)一段時(shí)間的上行趨勢(shì),。

包括LPL Financial的瑞安·德特里克在內(nèi)的策略師認(rèn)為,,“我們經(jīng)歷的這次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退對(duì)于大多數(shù)人來說都是生平僅見,,而且我們依然處于恢復(fù)初期”,,他最近對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說,因此美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)依然得“謹(jǐn)慎一點(diǎn)”,,并指出2022年三次加息次數(shù)可能太多了,。他認(rèn)為:“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)”在12月15日“發(fā)表的聲明將成為投資者的強(qiáng)心劑,。”然而,,有人認(rèn)為牛市在明年將得以延續(xù),不過其上升通道可能會(huì)更加陡峭,,德特里克也持有同樣的想法,。

其他人,像 Ally Invest的首席市場(chǎng)與資金策略師林德賽·貝爾則認(rèn)為,,“小步慢跑式的加息很少會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)帶來負(fù)面影響,。”她在最近的紀(jì)要中寫道,,此舉會(huì)創(chuàng)造一個(gè)能夠讓股票保持上漲勢(shì)頭的環(huán)境,。

總的來說,德意志銀行的分析師認(rèn)為,,“如果我們相信歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn),,當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)首次加息時(shí),可能在2022年[上半年],,那么加息舉措將在后續(xù)的兩三年中對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融市場(chǎng)帶來影響,。”他們寫道,,很明顯,,“這一次是不同的,而且這一次的周期完全不同于我們之前所經(jīng)歷的任何周期,。然而,,每一個(gè)周期都有所不同,,但我們從歷史分析中發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)不容忽視的明顯趨勢(shì)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

本周,,整個(gè)華爾街都在問一個(gè)問題:美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)何時(shí)開始加息?

為了尋找答案,,所有人都將目光投向了美國(guó)聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)(Federal Open Market Committee)在12月15日的會(huì)議,。當(dāng)日,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)結(jié)束了為期兩天的會(huì)議,,發(fā)表聲明稱,,將加快縮減債券購(gòu)買規(guī)模,并預(yù)計(jì)在2022年加息三次,,以控制通貨膨脹的速度,。

那么這對(duì)股市投資者來說意味著什么?

德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的分析師發(fā)現(xiàn),,自1955年以來共有13個(gè)獨(dú)立的加息周期,平均持續(xù)時(shí)間不到兩年,。根據(jù)他們的研究,,按日線看,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)平均價(jià)格在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)“加息周期第一年通常都會(huì)出現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健的增長(zhǎng),,365天后的平均回報(bào)率為+7.7%”,。德意志銀行的分析師在12月13日的報(bào)告中寫道。

然而,,“這一水平在加息周期253天之后首次見頂,,直到452天之后才再次被突破,而且甚至到了第712天,,回報(bào)率依然低于其在第253天的水平,。”

德意志銀行的分析師稱,,這一結(jié)果“是上述13個(gè)加息周期的平均值,,從加息周期開始9至10個(gè)月之后,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)有一年多沒有出現(xiàn)正回報(bào)率”(重點(diǎn)強(qiáng)調(diào)),。然而上表還顯示:“隨后,,該指數(shù)在加息開始兩年后開始增長(zhǎng)?!?/p>

換句話說,,至少?gòu)臍v史上看,加息對(duì)股市的許多負(fù)面影響可能被推遲了,,在開始加息后,,股市可能會(huì)持續(xù)一段時(shí)間的上行趨勢(shì),。

包括LPL Financial的瑞安·德特里克在內(nèi)的策略師認(rèn)為,“我們經(jīng)歷的這次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退對(duì)于大多數(shù)人來說都是生平僅見,,而且我們依然處于恢復(fù)初期”,,他最近對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說,因此美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)依然得“謹(jǐn)慎一點(diǎn)”,,并指出2022年三次加息次數(shù)可能太多了,。他認(rèn)為:“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)”在12月15日“發(fā)表的聲明將成為投資者的強(qiáng)心劑?!比欢?,有人認(rèn)為牛市在明年將得以延續(xù),不過其上升通道可能會(huì)更加陡峭,,德特里克也持有同樣的想法,。

其他人,像 Ally Invest的首席市場(chǎng)與資金策略師林德賽·貝爾則認(rèn)為,,“小步慢跑式的加息很少會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)帶來負(fù)面影響,。”她在最近的紀(jì)要中寫道,,此舉會(huì)創(chuàng)造一個(gè)能夠讓股票保持上漲勢(shì)頭的環(huán)境。

總的來說,,德意志銀行的分析師認(rèn)為,,“如果我們相信歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn),當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)首次加息時(shí),,可能在2022年[上半年],,那么加息舉措將在后續(xù)的兩三年中對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融市場(chǎng)帶來影響?!彼麄儗懙?,很明顯,“這一次是不同的,,而且這一次的周期完全不同于我們之前所經(jīng)歷的任何周期,。然而,每一個(gè)周期都有所不同,,但我們從歷史分析中發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)不容忽視的明顯趨勢(shì),。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

There's one big question hovering over the Street this week: When will the Federal Reserve start hiking interest rates?

In search of that answer, all eyes are focused on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, when the Fed could indicate it might begin hiking interest rates next year to combat inflation, which is hovering near 40-year highs.

What could that mean for stock investors?

Analysts at Deutsche Bank identified 13 separate hiking cycles since 1955, which lasted an average of under two years. And according to their research, which examined the average price performance of the S&P 500 on a daily basis, "there tends to be solid growth in the first year of the hiking cycle, with an average return of +7.7% after 365 days," the analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a December 13 report.

However, "after the initial peak on day 253 after the tightening cycle, it’s not until day 452 that this level is exceeded again, and even on day 712 it’s still trading beneath its level on day 253," they wrote (see Deutsche Bank's chart below).

The upshot, according to the Deutsche Bank analysts, is "on average over those 13 hiking cycles, the S&P 500 goes a period of over a year without a positive return from 9-10 months after the start of the hiking cycle" (emphasis added). Still, as the chart also shows, "the index then commences its advance 2 years after the tightening commences."

In other words, it seems much of the negative effects on stocks, at least historically, may be delayed, and that the market could continue on an upward trend for some time after hiking starts.

Strategists like Ryan Detrick at LPL Financial suggest "we're still in an early recovery off of the worst recession we've seen in most people's lifetimes," so the Fed still needs to be "a little cautious," adding that three rate hikes in 2022 "is probably one too many," he recently told Fortune. "What the Fed says" on Wednesday is "gonna be a big driver" for investors, he argued. Still, Detrick is among those who think the bull market can continue next year, though likely on something of a "choppier" path.

Others like Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at Ally Invest, believe that "small, gradual rate hikes rarely upset economic growth. That creates an environment in which stocks can continue to perform well," she wrote in a recent note.

Overall, the Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that "if history is to be believed, when the Fed first hikes, likely in [the first half of] 2022, it will have an effect on the economy and financial markets over the subsequent two to three years." Clearly, "this time could be different and this is a very unusual cycle to any we’ve seen through history," they wrote, but that "every cycle is different and yet clear trends have emerged from our historical analysis that shouldn’t be ignored."

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