在過(guò)去兩年里,,各個(gè)新冠病毒變異株在美國(guó)的傳播簡(jiǎn)直可以說(shuō)是輕車(chē)熟路了,它們先是從機(jī)場(chǎng)和港口登陸,,然而逐步向內(nèi)陸傳播,,直至美國(guó)的心臟地帶。
也正是因?yàn)橛羞@樣的時(shí)間差,,各州在醫(yī)療資源上才沒(méi)有被過(guò)度擠兌,。比如去年3月,全美各地都有醫(yī)護(hù)人員馳援紐約,。到了春末的時(shí)候,,紐約的疫情高峰已經(jīng)過(guò)去,部分醫(yī)療資源也就回到了密歇根等州,。
但是,,最新發(fā)現(xiàn)的具有高度傳染性的奧密克戎變異株卻是一種“不走尋常路”的病毒,有流行病學(xué)家擔(dān)心,,奧密克戎將給美國(guó)的抗疫形勢(shì)帶來(lái)嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn),。
本月,世界衛(wèi)生組織總干事譚德塞在日內(nèi)瓦指出:“奧密克戎變異株的傳播速度之快,,是我們?cè)谥暗乃凶儺愔晟隙紱](méi)有看到過(guò)的,。”根據(jù)美國(guó)疾控中心的數(shù)據(jù),,自從12月1日美國(guó)發(fā)現(xiàn)首例奧密克戎病毒確診病例以來(lái),,還不到一個(gè)月的時(shí)間,奧密克戎就已經(jīng)占到了美國(guó)所有新增確診病例的60%,。
奧密克戎在全美傳播得較為均勻,,在每個(gè)地區(qū)幾乎都占了新增病例的一半以上,除了位于美國(guó)最中間的少數(shù)地區(qū),。(這個(gè)地區(qū)又被美國(guó)疾控中心稱(chēng)為“7號(hào)地區(qū)”,,包括愛(ài)荷華州、堪薩斯州,、密蘇里州和內(nèi)布拉斯加州,。)
這就導(dǎo)致各地同時(shí)發(fā)生醫(yī)療資源擠兌的可能性大大上升。一旦真的發(fā)生這種情況,,各地的醫(yī)療資源也就不可能相互馳援了,。
雖然倫敦帝國(guó)理工學(xué)院最近的發(fā)表的一份報(bào)告顯示,與之前流行的德?tīng)査《鞠啾?,奧密克戎病毒導(dǎo)致的住院風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相對(duì)有所下降,。不過(guò)現(xiàn)實(shí)情況是,美國(guó)各地新冠肺炎患者的住院率仍在飆升,,尤其是在未接種疫苗的人群中,。另外,,全美各地的醫(yī)療資源和ICU病床都非常緊張。
本周一發(fā)布的疫情數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,美國(guó)的7日平均確診病例數(shù)已經(jīng)上升到了24.3萬(wàn)例,,比短短兩個(gè)星期前暴增了105%。目前美國(guó)有7.14萬(wàn)人因?yàn)樾鹿诜窝鬃≡褐委?,?4天內(nèi)增長(zhǎng)了6%,。
就算50個(gè)州同時(shí)迎來(lái)新一波疫情高峰的情況沒(méi)有出現(xiàn),以現(xiàn)在的情況看,,美國(guó)各地的醫(yī)院也可能無(wú)法很好地應(yīng)對(duì)奧密克戎病毒,。世界衛(wèi)生組織緊急衛(wèi)生項(xiàng)目執(zhí)行主任麥克·瑞安博士本月在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上表示,很多醫(yī)院都沒(méi)有對(duì)這一波疫情做好充分的準(zhǔn)備,。
他指出:“實(shí)際上,,現(xiàn)在的衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)現(xiàn)在比一年前更加脆弱。有時(shí)候你可以承受住第一拳的打擊,,但你在挨了第二拳之后就很難再站起來(lái)了,,這就是困難所在。我們所依賴(lài)的這些醫(yī)院的醫(yī)療工作者已經(jīng)被當(dāng)前的這種應(yīng)對(duì)水平削弱了,。”
紐約州近日表示,,該州所有醫(yī)院的單克隆抗體已經(jīng)全部用完了,。單克隆抗體是治療新冠肺炎重癥患者的一種關(guān)鍵療法。另一方面,,美國(guó)疾控中心的《抗疫指南》已經(jīng)將陽(yáng)性患者的隔離期從10天削減到了5天,,一個(gè)原因是因?yàn)楹芏噌t(yī)護(hù)人員自身也被感染了,只得接受隔離,,甚至連醫(yī)院都無(wú)法正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)了,。
明尼蘇達(dá)大學(xué)傳染病研究與政策中心主任邁克爾·奧斯特霍爾姆教授對(duì)《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》表示:“這一次,美國(guó)所有50個(gè)州同時(shí)陷入了困境,,就好像每個(gè)州都遭到了一場(chǎng)病毒颶風(fēng)的襲擊,。我們的這根弦已經(jīng)繃得太緊了?!?/p>
奧斯特霍爾姆教授后來(lái)又對(duì)CNN表示:“德?tīng)査《驹诿绹?guó)呈現(xiàn)出明顯的區(qū)域性爆發(fā),,現(xiàn)在美國(guó)西部地區(qū)和南部部分地區(qū)的德?tīng)査±龜?shù)已經(jīng)很低了——但我認(rèn)為,奧密克戎病毒將呈現(xiàn)全國(guó)式的大爆發(fā),?!?/p>
美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拜登表示,明年1至2月,,他將動(dòng)員部署1000名軍隊(duì)系統(tǒng)的醫(yī)生,、護(hù)士和醫(yī)務(wù)人員支援全美各地的醫(yī)院,。
目前,大約61%的美國(guó)人已經(jīng)完全接種了新冠疫苗,,但只有其中30%的人接種了加強(qiáng)針,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:樸成奎
在過(guò)去兩年里,各個(gè)新冠病毒變異株在美國(guó)的傳播簡(jiǎn)直可以說(shuō)是輕車(chē)熟路了,,它們先是從機(jī)場(chǎng)和港口登陸,,然而逐步向內(nèi)陸傳播,直至美國(guó)的心臟地帶,。
也正是因?yàn)橛羞@樣的時(shí)間差,,各州在醫(yī)療資源上才沒(méi)有被過(guò)度擠兌。比如去年3月,,全美各地都有醫(yī)護(hù)人員馳援紐約,。到了春末的時(shí)候,紐約的疫情高峰已經(jīng)過(guò)去,,部分醫(yī)療資源也就回到了密歇根等州,。
但是,最新發(fā)現(xiàn)的具有高度傳染性的奧密克戎變異株卻是一種“不走尋常路”的病毒,,有流行病學(xué)家擔(dān)心,,奧密克戎將給美國(guó)的抗疫形勢(shì)帶來(lái)嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。
本月,,世界衛(wèi)生組織總干事譚德塞在日內(nèi)瓦指出:“奧密克戎變異株的傳播速度之快,,是我們?cè)谥暗乃凶儺愔晟隙紱](méi)有看到過(guò)的?!备鶕?jù)美國(guó)疾控中心的數(shù)據(jù),,自從12月1日美國(guó)發(fā)現(xiàn)首例奧密克戎病毒確診病例以來(lái),還不到一個(gè)月的時(shí)間,,奧密克戎就已經(jīng)占到了美國(guó)所有新增確診病例的60%,。
奧密克戎在全美傳播得較為均勻,在每個(gè)地區(qū)幾乎都占了新增病例的一半以上,,除了位于美國(guó)最中間的少數(shù)地區(qū),。(這個(gè)地區(qū)又被美國(guó)疾控中心稱(chēng)為“7號(hào)地區(qū)”,包括愛(ài)荷華州,、堪薩斯州,、密蘇里州和內(nèi)布拉斯加州。)
這就導(dǎo)致各地同時(shí)發(fā)生醫(yī)療資源擠兌的可能性大大上升,。一旦真的發(fā)生這種情況,,各地的醫(yī)療資源也就不可能相互馳援了。
雖然倫敦帝國(guó)理工學(xué)院最近的發(fā)表的一份報(bào)告顯示,,與之前流行的德?tīng)査《鞠啾?,奧密克戎病毒導(dǎo)致的住院風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相對(duì)有所下降,。不過(guò)現(xiàn)實(shí)情況是,美國(guó)各地新冠肺炎患者的住院率仍在飆升,,尤其是在未接種疫苗的人群中,。另外,全美各地的醫(yī)療資源和ICU病床都非常緊張,。
本周一發(fā)布的疫情數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,美國(guó)的7日平均確診病例數(shù)已經(jīng)上升到了24.3萬(wàn)例,比短短兩個(gè)星期前暴增了105%,。目前美國(guó)有7.14萬(wàn)人因?yàn)樾鹿诜窝鬃≡褐委?,?4天內(nèi)增長(zhǎng)了6%。
就算50個(gè)州同時(shí)迎來(lái)新一波疫情高峰的情況沒(méi)有出現(xiàn),,以現(xiàn)在的情況看,,美國(guó)各地的醫(yī)院也可能無(wú)法很好地應(yīng)對(duì)奧密克戎病毒。世界衛(wèi)生組織緊急衛(wèi)生項(xiàng)目執(zhí)行主任麥克·瑞安博士本月在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上表示,,很多醫(yī)院都沒(méi)有對(duì)這一波疫情做好充分的準(zhǔn)備,。
他指出:“實(shí)際上,現(xiàn)在的衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)現(xiàn)在比一年前更加脆弱,。有時(shí)候你可以承受住第一拳的打擊,,但你在挨了第二拳之后就很難再站起來(lái)了,這就是困難所在,。我們所依賴(lài)的這些醫(yī)院的醫(yī)療工作者已經(jīng)被當(dāng)前的這種應(yīng)對(duì)水平削弱了,。”
紐約州近日表示,,該州所有醫(yī)院的單克隆抗體已經(jīng)全部用完了。單克隆抗體是治療新冠肺炎重癥患者的一種關(guān)鍵療法,。另一方面,,美國(guó)疾控中心的《抗疫指南》已經(jīng)將陽(yáng)性患者的隔離期從10天削減到了5天,一個(gè)原因是因?yàn)楹芏噌t(yī)護(hù)人員自身也被感染了,,只得接受隔離,,甚至連醫(yī)院都無(wú)法正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)了。
明尼蘇達(dá)大學(xué)傳染病研究與政策中心主任邁克爾·奧斯特霍爾姆教授對(duì)《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》表示:“這一次,,美國(guó)所有50個(gè)州同時(shí)陷入了困境,,就好像每個(gè)州都遭到了一場(chǎng)病毒颶風(fēng)的襲擊。我們的這根弦已經(jīng)繃得太緊了,?!?/p>
奧斯特霍爾姆教授后來(lái)又對(duì)CNN表示:“德?tīng)査《驹诿绹?guó)呈現(xiàn)出明顯的區(qū)域性爆發(fā),現(xiàn)在美國(guó)西部地區(qū)和南部部分地區(qū)的德?tīng)査±龜?shù)已經(jīng)很低了——但我認(rèn)為,,奧密克戎病毒將呈現(xiàn)全國(guó)式的大爆發(fā),?!?/p>
美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拜登表示,明年1至2月,,他將動(dòng)員部署1000名軍隊(duì)系統(tǒng)的醫(yī)生,、護(hù)士和醫(yī)務(wù)人員支援全美各地的醫(yī)院。
目前,,大約61%的美國(guó)人已經(jīng)完全接種了新冠疫苗,,但只有其中30%的人接種了加強(qiáng)針。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:樸成奎
Over the last two years, COVID-19 has created a well-worn path across the United States. Each variant thus far has taken hold of the coasts, our ports of entry, and then slowly snaked its way inwards, eventually burrowing itself deep into America’s heartland.
The timed spread has proved helpful in the allocation of medical resources among states. Nurses and doctors came from across the country to help overburdened hospitals in New York in March of 2020; by late spring, New York was past its peak in new cases and could send resources back to states like Michigan.
But Omicron, the new and highly contagious COVID-19 variant, is taking the path less traveled—and epidemiologists are afraid that will make all the difference.
“Omicron is spreading at a rate we have not seen with any previous variant,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a COVID update in Geneva this month. It has been less than a month since the first case of Omicron was detected in the U.S., on Dec. 1, and the variant already accounts for 60% of all new COVID cases in the country, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
That spread is evenly distributed across the country, accounting for at least half of all cases in every region except one in the very middle of the country (what the CDC calls "region 7," which includes Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska).
That raises the possibility of a perfect-storm scenario, where hospitals across the country are overwhelmed by a wave of Omicron cases at the same time—making it impossible for health systems in different regions to help each other.
While a recent report by the Imperial College London found a reduction in the risk of hospitalization for Omicron infections compared to the previously dominant Delta variant, hospitalization rates, especially amongst the unvaccinated, are still soaring around the country, and resources and ICU beds available are very tight.
The seven-day national average of daily COVID-19 cases grew to 243,000 on Monday. That's a 105% increase in just two weeks. There are 71,400 Americans hospitalized with the virus, a 6% increase over the 14-day average.
Even in the absence of a simultaneous 50-state crest, U.S. hospitals may not be in great shape to cope with Omicron. Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO health emergencies program, said this month at a press conference that hospitals are not fully prepared for this wave.
“Health systems are weaker now than they were a year ago in reality,” he said. “So unfortunately, sometimes you can get up after the first punch, but it’s very hard to get up after the second. And that’s the difficulty. We’re relying on health workers of the health systems that have been weakened by this response.”
New York State has already reported that it has run out of monoclonal antibodies, a key treatment for those suffering from severe COVID, at its hospitals. The CDC recently cut guidelines for quarantine after testing positive for COVID-19 from 10 days to five, in part because so many healthcare workers were infected with the virus that hospitals were having trouble remaining functional.
“With this one, all 50 states are in the soup at the same time. It’s like every state is being hit by a viral hurricane,” Michael Osterholm, a professor and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota told The New York Times. “We’re already stretched so thin,” he said.
"Instead of seeing the regional surges we were seeing with Delta—much of the West right now is very low level with Delta, parts of the South—I think Omicron is going to be a national viral blizzard," Osterholm later told CNN.
President Biden has said he will prepare and deploy 1,000 military service members, including doctors, nurses, and medics, to hospitals across the country in January and February.
About 61% of Americans are fully vaccinated, and only 30% of them have received their boosters.