2月24日,，歐洲數(shù)十年來最大的安全威脅影響市場，美元盤中漲幅達到近兩年來最高,。
彭博美元指數(shù)（Bloomberg Dollar Index）的漲幅高達1.4%,，接近2021年最高水平，但隨著美國科技股的反彈,，漲幅有所降低,。在俄羅斯對烏克蘭發(fā)起軍事行動后，交易員紛紛轉向安全的美元,，美元兌十國集團成員國貨幣的匯率均走高,。
歐洲大陸的投資者紛紛涌入避險資產，歐元兌瑞士法郎跌至近七年低點,。匯率跌幅高達1%,，為三年多來最大，之后略有反彈,。歐元兌美元一度下跌1.8%至1.1106美元,，匯率為2020年6月以來最低。
市場對美元的強勁需求壓低了歐洲其他貨幣的匯率,，瑞典,、挪威和丹麥的貨幣匯率下跌至少1%。在俄羅斯的坦克開進烏克蘭后,，就連傳統(tǒng)的避風港瑞士法郎兌美元的匯率也出現(xiàn)下跌,。
“廣義美元方面,，本交易日最重要的一點在于，盡管隔夜指數(shù)掉期曲線降低了美聯(lián)儲的加息預期,，美元還是出現(xiàn)了反彈,。”蒙特利爾銀行資本市場公司（BMO Capital Markets）的歐洲外匯策略主管斯蒂芬·加洛在一份報告中表示,?！爱斍笆羌兇庥伞茈U’主導的外匯市場，畢竟北美和歐洲之間存在地理距離,?！?/p>
歐元方面，在今年2月早些時候歐洲央行（European Central Bank）表達更強硬態(tài)度后,，之前歐元積攢的增幅幾乎歸零,。沖突導致油價飆升，打算收緊政策應對通脹的官員面臨的前景愈加復雜,。當前的通脹已經達到數(shù)十年來最高,。不過，貨幣市場認為加息機會不大,。
“外匯投資者認為,，危機一旦惡化將加劇歐元區(qū)復蘇的滯脹風險，導致歐洲央行政策正?；招跷?，對歐元造成壓力?！狈▏r業(yè)信貸銀行（Credit Agricole SA）的十國集團貨幣策略主管瓦倫丁·馬里諾夫說,。
交易者預計會出現(xiàn)更劇烈波動以及匯率進一步下跌。隨著市場動蕩不已,，之后一周歐元-美元對價格波動的對沖成本已經達到2020年12月以來最高,，而從相同期間期權呈現(xiàn)的情緒來看，市場對歐元的預期為2020年3月以來最悲觀,。
2月24日判斷加息的交易者略有減少,，不過市場還是預測歐洲央行在今年年底前將加息25個基點。預計美聯(lián)儲（Federal Reserve）將加息六次,，英格蘭銀行（Bank of England）將加息五次,。英鎊兌美元下跌了2%。
最近幾周,，各國央行官員均承認,，由于俄羅斯和北約（NATO）的盟國之間在烏克蘭問題上的緊張局勢不斷升級，能源價格前景將受到影響,。如今,，各國要在孤立俄羅斯與通脹走高的經濟后果之間做出選擇,。
歐洲央行表示，正“密切關注”烏克蘭局勢,，將在3月10日的利率決策會議上“全面評估經濟前景”,。歐洲央行管理委員會的成員加布里埃爾·馬赫盧夫指出，烏克蘭危機可能不會影響下次會議上歐洲央行就迅速減少資產購買達成一致,。（財富中文網）
譯者：梁宇
審校：夏林
2月24日,，歐洲數(shù)十年來最大的安全威脅影響市場，美元盤中漲幅達到近兩年來最高,。
彭博美元指數(shù)（Bloomberg Dollar Index）的漲幅高達1.4%，接近2021年最高水平,，但隨著美國科技股的反彈,，漲幅有所降低。在俄羅斯對烏克蘭發(fā)起軍事行動后,，交易員紛紛轉向安全的美元,，美元兌十國集團成員國貨幣的匯率均走高。
歐洲大陸的投資者紛紛涌入避險資產,，歐元兌瑞士法郎跌至近七年低點,。匯率跌幅高達1%，為三年多來最大,，之后略有反彈,。歐元兌美元一度下跌1.8%至1.1106美元，匯率為2020年6月以來最低,。
市場對美元的強勁需求壓低了歐洲其他貨幣的匯率,，瑞典、挪威和丹麥的貨幣匯率下跌至少1%,。在俄羅斯的坦克開進烏克蘭后,，就連傳統(tǒng)的避風港瑞士法郎兌美元的匯率也出現(xiàn)下跌。
“廣義美元方面,，本交易日最重要的一點在于,，盡管隔夜指數(shù)掉期曲線降低了美聯(lián)儲的加息預期，美元還是出現(xiàn)了反彈,?！泵商乩麪栥y行資本市場公司（BMO Capital Markets）的歐洲外匯策略主管斯蒂芬·加洛在一份報告中表示?！爱斍笆羌兇庥伞茈U’主導的外匯市場,，畢竟北美和歐洲之間存在地理距離?！?/p>
歐元方面,，在今年2月早些時候歐洲央行（European Central Bank）表達更強硬態(tài)度后,，之前歐元積攢的增幅幾乎歸零。沖突導致油價飆升,，打算收緊政策應對通脹的官員面臨的前景愈加復雜,。當前的通脹已經達到數(shù)十年來最高。不過,，貨幣市場認為加息機會不大,。
“外匯投資者認為，危機一旦惡化將加劇歐元區(qū)復蘇的滯脹風險,，導致歐洲央行政策正?；招跷ⅲ瑢W元造成壓力,?！狈▏r業(yè)信貸銀行（Credit Agricole SA）的十國集團貨幣策略主管瓦倫丁·馬里諾夫說。
交易者預計會出現(xiàn)更劇烈波動以及匯率進一步下跌,。隨著市場動蕩不已,，之后一周歐元-美元對價格波動的對沖成本已經達到2020年12月以來最高，而從相同期間期權呈現(xiàn)的情緒來看,，市場對歐元的預期為2020年3月以來最悲觀,。
2月24日判斷加息的交易者略有減少，不過市場還是預測歐洲央行在今年年底前將加息25個基點,。預計美聯(lián)儲（Federal Reserve）將加息六次,，英格蘭銀行（Bank of England）將加息五次。英鎊兌美元下跌了2%,。
最近幾周,，各國央行官員均承認，由于俄羅斯和北約（NATO）的盟國之間在烏克蘭問題上的緊張局勢不斷升級,，能源價格前景將受到影響,。如今，各國要在孤立俄羅斯與通脹走高的經濟后果之間做出選擇,。
歐洲央行表示,，正“密切關注”烏克蘭局勢，將在3月10日的利率決策會議上“全面評估經濟前景”,。歐洲央行管理委員會的成員加布里埃爾·馬赫盧夫指出,，烏克蘭危機可能不會影響下次會議上歐洲央行就迅速減少資產購買達成一致。（財富中文網）
譯者：梁宇
審校：夏林
A gauge of the dollar’s strength had its largest intraday gain in nearly two years on February 24 as markets grappled with the biggest security threat in Europe in decades.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose as much as 1.4%, approaching its highest levels of the past year, before paring gains as U.S. technology shares rebounded. Traders flocked to the safety of the greenback after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sending the U.S. currency higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers.
On the continent, the euro dropped to a nearly seven-year low against the Swiss franc as investors flocked to haven assets. The pair dropped as much as 1%, the largest slide in more than three years, before rebounding slightly. The common currency posted an even bigger decline against the greenback, falling as much as 1.8% to 1.1106, its lowest level since June 2020.
Demand for the dollar crushed other European currencies, with those of Sweden, Norway and Denmark declining at least 1%. Even the Swiss franc, a traditional haven, lost ground against the dollar as Russian tanks moved into Ukraine.
“For the broad USD, one of the most important aspects of today’s trading session is that the currency has rallied in spite of the OIS curve paring back Fed rate hike expectations,” Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note. “We are observing a purely a ‘risk-off’ dominated FX market with an understandable geographical separation between North America and Europe.”
The euro, for its part, erased what remained of gains accrued after the European Central Bank struck a more hawkish tone earlier February. The invasion sent oil prices soaring, complicating the outlook for officials planning to tighten policy to deal with inflation that’s already at the highest in decades. Still, money-markets pared bets on interest-rate hikes.
“FX investors believe that any intensification of the crisis will aggravate the stagflation risks to the euro-zone recovery, delay any meaningful policy normalization by the ECB and weigh on the euro,” said Valentin Marinov, head of G-10 currency strategy at Credit Agricole SA.
Traders are expecting more volatility and further losses. The cost of hedging price swings in the euro-dollar pair over the next week reached its highest level since December 2020 in the midst of the market turmoil, while a measure of options sentiment over the same tenor is at its most bearish on the common currency since March 2020.
While wagers on rate increases were trimmed slightly on February 24, one quarter-point hike is still expected from the ECB by year-end. Six are expected by the Federal Reserve and five by the Bank of England. The pound slid as much as 2% against the dollar.
In recent weeks, central-bank officials have acknowledged that the escalating tensions between Russia and NATO allies over Ukraine will affect the outlook for energy prices. Now they need to weigh the economic consequences of measures to isolate Russia against higher inflation.
The ECB said it is “closely monitoring” the situation in Ukraine and will conduct a “comprehensive assessment of the economic outlook” at their rate-decision meeting on March 10. Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said the crisis over Ukraine probably won’t keep the ECB from agreeing on a faster wind-down of asset purchases at the next meeting.
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