越來(lái)越多的人預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來(lái),其中包括眾多華爾街巨頭與投資銀行人員,。日前,,億萬(wàn)富豪投資者萊昂·庫(kù)珀曼也加入了這一陣營(yíng)。
隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)試圖通過(guò)加息來(lái)遏制通脹,,這位前對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退將在2023年到來(lái),。
4月5日,庫(kù)珀曼接受美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)采訪(fǎng)時(shí)說(shuō):“我認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)完全錯(cuò)過(guò)了遏制通脹的時(shí)機(jī),,我們還有很多工作要做,。在我看來(lái),,油價(jià)和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將讓美國(guó)在2023年陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。雖然未必會(huì)發(fā)生,,但我個(gè)人的猜測(cè)是這樣的,。”
今年3月,,俄烏沖突引發(fā)大宗商品價(jià)格飆升,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)四年來(lái)首次將基準(zhǔn)利率上調(diào)25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。現(xiàn)在,,隨著一些官員呼吁在明年進(jìn)一步加快加息步伐,,這家央行有意在下個(gè)月加息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)。
如今,,油價(jià)已飆升至每桶100美元以上,,通脹率創(chuàng)40年以來(lái)新高,受此影響,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的立場(chǎng)也發(fā)生了變化,。3月發(fā)布的一份強(qiáng)有力的就業(yè)報(bào)告顯示,美國(guó)新增了近50萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位,,失業(yè)率下降至3.6%,。這些數(shù)字也表明,“經(jīng)濟(jì)可能過(guò)熱,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)反應(yīng)遲鈍”的說(shuō)法并非是空穴來(lái)風(fēng),。
庫(kù)珀曼批評(píng)了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)去年在應(yīng)對(duì)消費(fèi)品價(jià)格上漲時(shí)的拖延行為。他指出,,現(xiàn)在要確保經(jīng)濟(jì)的“軟著陸”,,也就是在抑制通脹之時(shí)不至于陷入衰退,似乎已經(jīng)成為了不可能完成的任務(wù),。
庫(kù)珀曼說(shuō):“我們已經(jīng)提前透支了未來(lái)……我們的貨幣政策完全不對(duì)路,,而且我覺(jué)得必須針對(duì)其中一些政策采取補(bǔ)救措施。我認(rèn)為,,困難時(shí)期即將來(lái)臨,。”據(jù)估計(jì),,庫(kù)珀曼的身價(jià)達(dá)到了25億美元,。
庫(kù)珀曼的確提到,通脹通常在短期內(nèi)對(duì)股票是個(gè)利好,,但他補(bǔ)充說(shuō),,當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)采取行動(dòng)抑制消費(fèi)價(jià)格上漲時(shí),此舉往往意味著災(zāi)難。
他說(shuō):“在投資者眼中,,遏制通脹等同于遏制增長(zhǎng),。”
庫(kù)珀曼還表示,,在市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)上升的環(huán)境下,,投資者也該秉持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度并保護(hù)其投資組合了。他說(shuō):“在遭遇熊市時(shí),,誰(shuí)虧得最少,,誰(shuí)就是贏(yíng)家?!?/p>
近幾周,,諸多億萬(wàn)富翁投資者紛紛現(xiàn)身,發(fā)出了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的警告,,庫(kù)珀曼只是其中之一,。億萬(wàn)富翁卡爾·伊坎在今年3月對(duì)投資者發(fā)布了一則不詳?shù)木妫好绹?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)或?qū)⒂瓉?lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退或“更糟糕的情形”。來(lái)自雙線(xiàn)資本(DoubleLine Capital)的杰弗里·岡德拉奇稱(chēng),,通脹率在4月份會(huì)達(dá)到10%,,繼而迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)以一種不可持續(xù)的速度提高利率,從而引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,。
甚至連投資銀行也開(kāi)始給出衰退預(yù)測(cè),,而華爾街的專(zhuān)業(yè)人士則剛開(kāi)始感受到不斷增長(zhǎng)的通脹與油價(jià)帶來(lái)的好日子。德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)在4月6日發(fā)給客戶(hù)的紀(jì)要中稱(chēng),,該銀行當(dāng)前對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的“基本看法”便包括在明年年底之前出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,。同時(shí),高盛(Goldman Sachs)稱(chēng)美國(guó)2023年出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的概率為38%,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
越來(lái)越多的人預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來(lái),,其中包括眾多華爾街巨頭與投資銀行人員。日前,,億萬(wàn)富豪投資者萊昂·庫(kù)珀曼也加入了這一陣營(yíng),。
隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)試圖通過(guò)加息來(lái)遏制通脹,這位前對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退將在2023年到來(lái),。
4月5日,,庫(kù)珀曼接受美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)采訪(fǎng)時(shí)說(shuō):“我認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)完全錯(cuò)過(guò)了遏制通脹的時(shí)機(jī),,我們還有很多工作要做,。在我看來(lái),油價(jià)和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將讓美國(guó)在2023年陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,。雖然未必會(huì)發(fā)生,,但我個(gè)人的猜測(cè)是這樣的。”
今年3月,,俄烏沖突引發(fā)大宗商品價(jià)格飆升,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)四年來(lái)首次將基準(zhǔn)利率上調(diào)25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。現(xiàn)在,,隨著一些官員呼吁在明年進(jìn)一步加快加息步伐,,這家央行有意在下個(gè)月加息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)。
如今,,油價(jià)已飆升至每桶100美元以上,,通脹率創(chuàng)40年以來(lái)新高,受此影響,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的立場(chǎng)也發(fā)生了變化,。3月發(fā)布的一份強(qiáng)有力的就業(yè)報(bào)告顯示,美國(guó)新增了近50萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位,,失業(yè)率下降至3.6%,。這些數(shù)字也表明,“經(jīng)濟(jì)可能過(guò)熱,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)反應(yīng)遲鈍”的說(shuō)法并非是空穴來(lái)風(fēng),。
庫(kù)珀曼批評(píng)了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)去年在應(yīng)對(duì)消費(fèi)品價(jià)格上漲時(shí)的拖延行為。他指出,,現(xiàn)在要確保經(jīng)濟(jì)的“軟著陸”,,也就是在抑制通脹之時(shí)不至于陷入衰退,似乎已經(jīng)成為了不可能完成的任務(wù),。
庫(kù)珀曼說(shuō):“我們已經(jīng)提前透支了未來(lái)……我們的貨幣政策完全不對(duì)路,,而且我覺(jué)得必須針對(duì)其中一些政策采取補(bǔ)救措施。我認(rèn)為,,困難時(shí)期即將來(lái)臨,。”據(jù)估計(jì),,庫(kù)珀曼的身價(jià)達(dá)到了25億美元,。
庫(kù)珀曼的確提到,通脹通常在短期內(nèi)對(duì)股票是個(gè)利好,,但他補(bǔ)充說(shuō),,當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)采取行動(dòng)抑制消費(fèi)價(jià)格上漲時(shí),此舉往往意味著災(zāi)難,。
他說(shuō):“在投資者眼中,,遏制通脹等同于遏制增長(zhǎng)?!?/p>
庫(kù)珀曼還表示,,在市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)上升的環(huán)境下,投資者也該秉持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度并保護(hù)其投資組合了。他說(shuō):“在遭遇熊市時(shí),,誰(shuí)虧得最少,,誰(shuí)就是贏(yíng)家?!?/p>
近幾周,,諸多億萬(wàn)富翁投資者紛紛現(xiàn)身,發(fā)出了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的警告,,庫(kù)珀曼只是其中之一,。億萬(wàn)富翁卡爾·伊坎在今年3月對(duì)投資者發(fā)布了一則不詳?shù)木妫好绹?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)或?qū)⒂瓉?lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退或“更糟糕的情形”。來(lái)自雙線(xiàn)資本(DoubleLine Capital)的杰弗里·岡德拉奇稱(chēng),,通脹率在4月份會(huì)達(dá)到10%,,繼而迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)以一種不可持續(xù)的速度提高利率,從而引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,。
甚至連投資銀行也開(kāi)始給出衰退預(yù)測(cè),,而華爾街的專(zhuān)業(yè)人士則剛開(kāi)始感受到不斷增長(zhǎng)的通脹與油價(jià)帶來(lái)的好日子。德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)在4月6日發(fā)給客戶(hù)的紀(jì)要中稱(chēng),,該銀行當(dāng)前對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的“基本看法”便包括在明年年底之前出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,。同時(shí),高盛(Goldman Sachs)稱(chēng)美國(guó)2023年出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的概率為38%,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman added his name this week to a growing list of Wall Street titans and investment banks predicting a recession.
The former hedge fund manager said he sees a recession coming in 2023 as the Federal Reserve attempts to curb rising inflation by raising interest rates.
"I think the Fed has totally missed it, and I think we have a lot of wood to chop," Cooperman told CNBC on Tuesday. "I would think the price of oil or the Fed would push us into a recession in 2023. It's not written in stone, but that would be my guess."
In March, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in four years by a quarter-point as Russia’s Ukraine invasion sent commodity prices soaring. Now, the central bank is whetting its appetite for a half a point hike next month as some officials call for an even faster pace of rate increases through next year.
The changing stance from the Fed comes as oil prices have surged to over $100 per barrel and inflation rates have moved to highs not seen in four decades. A strong jobs report in March, which showed the U.S. adding nearly half a million jobs and the unemployment rate falling to just 3.6%, also lent credibility to arguments the economy may be overheated and that the Fed has been slow to act.
Cooperman criticized the Federal Reserve’s delayed response to rising consumer prices over the past year, saying it now may be impossible to ensure a “soft landing” for the economy—in which inflation is curbed without creating a recession.
“We’ve borrowed from the future…We’ve had totally inappropriate monetary policies, and I think we have to make up for some of this,” said Cooperman, who is worth an estimated $2.5 billion. “I think we’re in store for a difficult period.”
Cooperman did note that inflation has typically been kind to stocks in the near term, but he added that when the Fed acts to combat rising consumer prices, it often spells disaster.
“Investors understand curbing inflation is tantamount to curbing growth,” he said.
Cooperman added that it's time for investors to be cautious and protect their portfolios amid rising market risks, saying: “In a bear market, he who loses least, wins.”
Cooperman is just one of many billionaire investors who have come out in recent weeks warning of a recession. Billionaire Carl Icahn issued an ominous warning to investors in March, saying a recession “or even worse” could be ahead for the U.S. economy. And DoubleLine Capital’s Jeff Gundlach said he sees inflation hitting 10% in April, forcing the Fed to raise rates at an unsustainable pace, thereby instigating a recession.
Even investment banks are beginning to make recession predictions as Wall Street starts to feel the heat of rising inflation and elevated oil prices. Deutsche Bank said its “base case” for the U.S. economy now includes a recession by the end of next year in a note to clients on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs said it sees a 38% chance of a U.S. recession through 2023.