
市場和經(jīng)濟搖搖欲墜,,華爾街最近討論最多的問題是:我們到底會不會再次陷入衰退,?對于投資者來說,知道在不同情況下如何投資才能打好有準備之仗,。
“現(xiàn)在人們的神經(jīng)都非常緊張,,甚至不是因為市場本身的動蕩,而是因為世界的動蕩,?!蹦Ω康だ敻还芾砉?Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投資官麗莎?謝利特在接受《財富》采訪時從更廣泛的層面談到了地緣政治的不確定性:“我們正處在一個相當令人焦慮的時期?!?/p>
穆迪分析公司(Moody's Analytics)首席經(jīng)濟學家馬克?贊迪向本刊表示,未來一到兩年內(nèi)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性“高得令人不安”,。他認為,,未來12個月出現(xiàn)衰退的幾率大概為三分之一,稱他正在密切關(guān)注油價,、消費者信心,、收益率曲線等數(shù)據(jù)進行預測。
對投資者來說,,衰退可能意味著要改變策略,,轉(zhuǎn)向防守型投資(即高增長股和科技股可能不會像過去兩年那么吃香了)。今年以來,,標準普爾500指數(shù)下跌了近14%,,而以科技股為主的納斯達克綜合指數(shù)下跌了近23%。
“如果我們看到通脹再次加速,,如果再發(fā)生一次可怕的地緣政治事件……情況就會持續(xù)失控,,推高通脹,然后我們今年年底前可能就會被推到衰退的邊緣,,”LPL Financial的首席市場策略師瑞安·德特里克說,。
當前,美國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展走勢尚不明朗,,《財富》采訪了若干策略師關(guān)于投資者應當如何為不同情況做好準備的問題,。
場景1:2022年未出現(xiàn)衰退
一些策略師認為,我們不會經(jīng)歷經(jīng)濟衰退,,至少近期不會,。
摩根士丹利的謝利特持這種觀點,原因可以簡單地歸結(jié)為:“從更廣泛的經(jīng)濟學角度來看,我們?yōu)槭裁凑J為不會出現(xiàn)衰退,,因為如果要發(fā)生衰退,,必然會對消費者產(chǎn)生實質(zhì)性沖擊。現(xiàn)在,,消費情況非常好,,就業(yè)市場仍然非常強勁?!彼f,,“盡管收入增長跟不上通貨膨脹,確實存在不安情緒,,但現(xiàn)實是消費者仍然在花錢,。”
確實,,盡管消費者信心一直在下降,,但目前消費仍然強勁,就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)仍然穩(wěn)定,,失業(yè)率徘徊在3.6%左右,。LPL的德特里克表示,與此同時,,美國企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)負債表“結(jié)構(gòu)也非常穩(wěn)健”,。(和謝利特一樣,他認為今年發(fā)生衰退的可能性“很小”,。)
事實上,,德特里克等偏樂觀的策略師認為,如果通脹能很快見頂,,這甚至可能成為提振信心的“重要催化劑”,,推動下半年股市實現(xiàn)反彈。
如果經(jīng)濟形勢不錯,,德特里克建議多買一些“受到打擊”的股市寵兒——即科技和成長型公司,,以及通信服務(wù)公司。今年以來,,我們經(jīng)歷了科技股大規(guī)模暴跌,,因此這些股票“相對于過去的價格便宜了”。德特里克還指出,,目前小盤股普遍處于“歷史”低點,,如果能避免衰退,經(jīng)濟甚至“意外上揚”,,小盤股或?qū)⒊蔀槭钟形Φ倪x擇,。
蘭迪?弗雷德里克還說:“周期性股票在市場繁榮時表現(xiàn)也很不錯,。”他是嘉信金融研究中心(Schwab Center for Financial Research)交易和衍生品董事總經(jīng)理,。謝利特也說,,如果我們真的迎來了“經(jīng)濟重新加速的情況,你會愿意重新用周期股填滿你的彈藥庫”,,還會想要持有能源,、銀行、住房,、零售,、非必需消費品以及“這一類的產(chǎn)品”。
場景2:(標準)衰退
在談到經(jīng)濟衰退時,,嘉信的弗雷德里克說:“衰退不是一個會不會出現(xiàn)的問題,,而是什么時候出現(xiàn)、程度多深,、持續(xù)多久的問題,。”(他的看法是:很有可能是“相對溫和的”衰退,,持續(xù)不長,。)
專家們指出,的確有一些令人擔憂的跡象,,包括像塔吉特(Target)和沃爾瑪(Walmart)等大型零售商最近的業(yè)績發(fā)出的關(guān)于庫存過剩的預警信號,在謝利特看來,,這是導致第一季度GDP負數(shù)的原因,。華爾街也在密切關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲抗擊通脹的政策,以及這些政策是否會導致美國經(jīng)濟陷入衰退,。穆迪的贊迪推斷,,未來兩年經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性接近50%。
如果你不喜歡這種可能性,,甚至認為未來可能更黑暗,,策略師建議投資者可以相應采取一些措施。
夏利特,、德特里克和弗雷德里克等人指出,,出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退時,公用事業(yè),、日用品,、醫(yī)療保健、大盤股,、非周期性科技股,、保險和電信等防御性股票可能會表現(xiàn)不錯,。然而,弗雷德里克提醒道:“并不是說讓你賣掉所有的科技股,,全部買入公用事業(yè)和日用品股票,,而是說或許可以把科技股減持5%或10%,然后增持5%或10%的公用事業(yè),、醫(yī)療或必需品股票,。”他說這幾個領(lǐng)域的股息收益通常很高,,可以在困難時期額外提供一點緩沖,。
LPL的德特里克還表示,盡管債券今年表現(xiàn)不佳,,但債券在衰退時期的業(yè)績也會不錯,。
但好消息是,在接受《財富》采訪的策略師中,,沒有一個人預測這次衰退會特別嚴重,,認為應該是一次普通衰退。
場景3:沒有衰退,,但增長疲軟或滯脹
一些人稱之為“軟著陸”“滯脹”或“周期中期放緩”,,投資者可能面臨的情況是,經(jīng)濟沒有陷入衰退,,但增長疲軟或放緩,。
LPL的德特里克認為我們正處于“周期中期放緩”階段。事實上,,贊迪等經(jīng)濟學家認為,,給過去兩年的快速復蘇降降溫,特別是就業(yè)方面的降溫“是必要的——我們需要減速”,。
摩根士丹利的夏利特認為,,我們正處于而且可能將繼續(xù)處于滯脹環(huán)境中,即高通脹,、經(jīng)濟增長放緩的環(huán)境,。這種環(huán)境下,她建議投資者“持有一切”,,也就是說“摒棄風格偏好,、行業(yè)偏好、地區(qū)偏好,、要素偏好,;不追求勢頭,也不追求品質(zhì),。保持中立,,順著市場的浪潮起伏,,確保同時接觸市場的兩面,因為市場太難判斷了,?!睋Q句話說:保持投資的多元。
LPL的德特里克也有同樣的想法,,他認為,,在這種情況下,與其讓投資者在市場中“挑選最喜歡的股票”,,不如“采用杠鈴投資模式,,持有一些成長股,一些價值股,,這樣還更合理,。”
無論美國經(jīng)濟走勢如何,,提前做好準備總沒有什么壞處,。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Agatha
市場和經(jīng)濟搖搖欲墜,華爾街最近討論最多的問題是:我們到底會不會再次陷入衰退,?對于投資者來說,,知道在不同情況下如何投資才能打好有準備之仗。
“現(xiàn)在人們的神經(jīng)都非常緊張,,甚至不是因為市場本身的動蕩,,而是因為世界的動蕩?!蹦Ω康だ敻还芾砉?Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投資官麗莎?謝利特在接受《財富》采訪時從更廣泛的層面談到了地緣政治的不確定性:“我們正處在一個相當令人焦慮的時期,。”
穆迪分析公司(Moody's Analytics)首席經(jīng)濟學家馬克?贊迪向本刊表示,,未來一到兩年內(nèi)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性“高得令人不安”,。他認為,,未來12個月出現(xiàn)衰退的幾率大概為三分之一,,稱他正在密切關(guān)注油價、消費者信心,、收益率曲線等數(shù)據(jù)進行預測,。
對投資者來說,衰退可能意味著要改變策略,,轉(zhuǎn)向防守型投資(即高增長股和科技股可能不會像過去兩年那么吃香了),。今年以來,標準普爾500指數(shù)下跌了近14%,,而以科技股為主的納斯達克綜合指數(shù)下跌了近23%,。
“如果我們看到通脹再次加速,,如果再發(fā)生一次可怕的地緣政治事件……情況就會持續(xù)失控,推高通脹,,然后我們今年年底前可能就會被推到衰退的邊緣,,”LPL Financial的首席市場策略師瑞安·德特里克說。
當前,,美國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展走勢尚不明朗,,《財富》采訪了若干策略師關(guān)于投資者應當如何為不同情況做好準備的問題。
場景1:2022年未出現(xiàn)衰退
一些策略師認為,,我們不會經(jīng)歷經(jīng)濟衰退,,至少近期不會。
摩根士丹利的謝利特持這種觀點,,原因可以簡單地歸結(jié)為:“從更廣泛的經(jīng)濟學角度來看,,我們?yōu)槭裁凑J為不會出現(xiàn)衰退,因為如果要發(fā)生衰退,,必然會對消費者產(chǎn)生實質(zhì)性沖擊?,F(xiàn)在,消費情況非常好,,就業(yè)市場仍然非常強勁,。”她說,,“盡管收入增長跟不上通貨膨脹,,確實存在不安情緒,但現(xiàn)實是消費者仍然在花錢,?!?/p>
確實,盡管消費者信心一直在下降,,但目前消費仍然強勁,,就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)仍然穩(wěn)定,失業(yè)率徘徊在3.6%左右,。LPL的德特里克表示,,與此同時,美國企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)負債表“結(jié)構(gòu)也非常穩(wěn)健”,。(和謝利特一樣,,他認為今年發(fā)生衰退的可能性“很小”。)
事實上,,德特里克等偏樂觀的策略師認為,,如果通脹能很快見頂,這甚至可能成為提振信心的“重要催化劑”,,推動下半年股市實現(xiàn)反彈,。
如果經(jīng)濟形勢不錯,,德特里克建議多買一些“受到打擊”的股市寵兒——即科技和成長型公司,以及通信服務(wù)公司,。今年以來,,我們經(jīng)歷了科技股大規(guī)模暴跌,因此這些股票“相對于過去的價格便宜了”,。德特里克還指出,,目前小盤股普遍處于“歷史”低點,如果能避免衰退,,經(jīng)濟甚至“意外上揚”,,小盤股或?qū)⒊蔀槭钟形Φ倪x擇。
蘭迪?弗雷德里克還說:“周期性股票在市場繁榮時表現(xiàn)也很不錯,?!彼羌涡沤鹑谘芯恐行?Schwab Center for Financial Research)交易和衍生品董事總經(jīng)理。謝利特也說,,如果我們真的迎來了“經(jīng)濟重新加速的情況,,你會愿意重新用周期股填滿你的彈藥庫”,還會想要持有能源,、銀行,、住房、零售,、非必需消費品以及“這一類的產(chǎn)品”,。
場景2:(標準)衰退
在談到經(jīng)濟衰退時,嘉信的弗雷德里克說:“衰退不是一個會不會出現(xiàn)的問題,,而是什么時候出現(xiàn),、程度多深、持續(xù)多久的問題,?!?他的看法是:很有可能是“相對溫和的”衰退,持續(xù)不長,。)
專家們指出,,的確有一些令人擔憂的跡象,包括像塔吉特(Target)和沃爾瑪(Walmart)等大型零售商最近的業(yè)績發(fā)出的關(guān)于庫存過剩的預警信號,,在謝利特看來,,這是導致第一季度GDP負數(shù)的原因,。華爾街也在密切關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲抗擊通脹的政策,,以及這些政策是否會導致美國經(jīng)濟陷入衰退。穆迪的贊迪推斷,,未來兩年經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性接近50%,。
如果你不喜歡這種可能性,,甚至認為未來可能更黑暗,策略師建議投資者可以相應采取一些措施,。
夏利特,、德特里克和弗雷德里克等人指出,出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退時,,公用事業(yè),、日用品、醫(yī)療保健,、大盤股,、非周期性科技股、保險和電信等防御性股票可能會表現(xiàn)不錯,。然而,,弗雷德里克提醒道:“并不是說讓你賣掉所有的科技股,全部買入公用事業(yè)和日用品股票,,而是說或許可以把科技股減持5%或10%,,然后增持5%或10%的公用事業(yè)、醫(yī)療或必需品股票,?!彼f這幾個領(lǐng)域的股息收益通常很高,可以在困難時期額外提供一點緩沖,。
LPL的德特里克還表示,,盡管債券今年表現(xiàn)不佳,但債券在衰退時期的業(yè)績也會不錯,。
但好消息是,,在接受《財富》采訪的策略師中,沒有一個人預測這次衰退會特別嚴重,,認為應該是一次普通衰退,。
場景3:沒有衰退,但增長疲軟或滯脹
一些人稱之為“軟著陸”“滯脹”或“周期中期放緩”,,投資者可能面臨的情況是,,經(jīng)濟沒有陷入衰退,但增長疲軟或放緩,。
LPL的德特里克認為我們正處于“周期中期放緩”階段,。事實上,贊迪等經(jīng)濟學家認為,,給過去兩年的快速復蘇降降溫,,特別是就業(yè)方面的降溫“是必要的——我們需要減速”。
摩根士丹利的夏利特認為,我們正處于而且可能將繼續(xù)處于滯脹環(huán)境中,,即高通脹,、經(jīng)濟增長放緩的環(huán)境。這種環(huán)境下,,她建議投資者“持有一切”,,也就是說“摒棄風格偏好、行業(yè)偏好,、地區(qū)偏好,、要素偏好;不追求勢頭,,也不追求品質(zhì),。保持中立,順著市場的浪潮起伏,,確保同時接觸市場的兩面,,因為市場太難判斷了?!睋Q句話說:保持投資的多元,。
LPL的德特里克也有同樣的想法,他認為,,在這種情況下,,與其讓投資者在市場中“挑選最喜歡的股票”,不如“采用杠鈴投資模式,,持有一些成長股,,一些價值股,這樣還更合理,?!?/p>
無論美國經(jīng)濟走勢如何,提前做好準備總沒有什么壞處,。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Agatha
There's one big question on the Street lately as the markets and economy falter: Will we or won't we head into another recession? For investors, understanding how to play either or any scenario could be a leg up.
"I think people's nerves are very frayed here at the minute, not even so much because of what's going on in the markets themselves, but what's going on in the world," Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, tells Fortune of the broader geopolitical uncertainty. "I think we're at a pretty fraught time."
According to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, the odds of a recession in the next one to two years are "uncomfortably high," he tells Fortune. He places those odds at about one-in-three in the next 12 months, and says he's watching things like oil prices, consumer sentiment, and the yield curve for clues.
For investors, a recession could mean switching up the playbook to move into more defensive investments (read: high-flying growth and tech stocks likely aren't going to work for investors' portfolios like they did the past two years). So far this year, the S&P 500 is off nearly 14%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down almost 23%.
"If we see another acceleration in inflation, and we have another terrible geopolitical event ... that can spiral out of control and push inflation higher, well then that could put us on the brink of ... maybe a recession before the end of the year," says LPL Financial's chief market strategist Ryan Detrick.
With the trajectory of the U.S. economy still uncertain, Fortune asked several strategists how investors can be ready for a variety of economic scenarios.
Scenario 1: No recession in 2022
Some strategists are of the view that we don't see a recession—at least not near term.
For those like Morgan Stanley's Shalett, the reasons why can be boiled down pretty simply: "When it comes to the broader economy, and why we're not calling for recession, is to get a recession, you actually have to hit consumers. And right now, consumers are in phenomenal shape, the job market is still very strong," she says. "While income growth is not keeping up with inflation and there's angst there, the reality is that consumers are still spending."
Indeed, though consumer confidence has been sinking, spending is still strong at the moment, and jobs data is remaining steady, with unemployment hovering around 3.6%. Corporate America's balance sheets, meanwhile, are also "in very solid shape," says LPL's Detrick. (Like Shalett, he thinks the odds of a recession this year are "slim".)
In fact, more optimistic strategists like Detrick suggest that if inflation peaks soon, that could even provide a "major catalyst" for confidence and the stock market to have a second-half-of-the-year comeback.
In a better-case-scenario, Detrick suggests buying up some "beaten up" darlings—namely, tech and growth names, and communication services. Those stocks have "really become cheap relative to where they were" considering the big tech rout we've seen so far in 2022. Detrick also points out that small caps broadly are "historically" cheap at the moment, and if we avoid a recession and the economy "surprises to the upside," small caps could pose a compelling option for investors.
"Cyclical stocks do well in times of market booms," adds Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at Schwab Center for Financial Research. And Shalett notes that if we do get a "re-acceleration scenario, you're going to want to load the boat back up with cyclicals" and own things like energy, banks, housing, retail, consumer discretionary, and "things of that nature."
Scenario 2: A (standard) recession
When it comes to a recession, according to Schwab's Frederick, "it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when we get it, how deep will the recession be, and how long will it last?" (His take: It will likely be "relatively mild" and won't last very long.)
Experts point out that there are a couple concerning signs, including big retailers like Target and Walmart's most recent earnings, which warned of excess inventory—something that contributed to the negative GDP number in the first quarter, according to Shalett. Plenty of eyes on the Street are also watching the Federal Reserve's policies to battle inflation, and whether or not they might usher the economy into a recession. And as Moody's Zandi postulates, there's a close to 50/50 chance of a recession within the next two years.
If you don't like those odds, and think we may be headed for darker days, strategists suggest a few plays for investors.
Those like Shalett, Detrick, and Frederick note a variety of defensive picks like utilities, staples, health care, large caps, non-cyclical tech stocks, insurance, and telecoms could do well in a recession environment. However, Frederick cautions that "we're not talking about selling all your tech stocks and buying all utilities and staples—we're talking about, maybe you reduce your tech exposure by 5% or 10% and you add 5% or 10% to utilities or healthcare or staples," two areas he notes also often have sizable dividend yields, which could help provide a bit of extra cushion in harder times.
LPL's Detrick also points out that despite their poor performance so far this year, bonds could also do well in a recession scenario.
But the good news is none of the strategists that spoke with Fortune anticipate this recession would be especially nasty, but rather more garden variety.
Scenario 3: No recession, but weak growth or stagflation
Some call it a "soft landing," "stagflation," or perhaps a "mid-cycle slowdown," but investors may be facing a scenario where the economy avoids slipping into a recession, but growth is weaker or slowing.
For one, LPL's Detrick postulates that we're in a "mid-cycle slowdown." And in fact, economists like Zandi suggest that a cooling, especially in employment, from the rapid recovery of the past two years "is desirable—we need to slow down."
Morgan Stanley's Shalett believes we're in, and will likely remain in, a stagflationary environment—meaning one with high inflation and slowing economic growth. In that environment, she suggests investors "own everything"—which could mean being "style neutral, sector neutral, region neutral, factor neutral; you don't want to be momentum, you don't want to be quality. You just want to be neutral and you want to ride the wave up and down and have exposure to both sides of it, because it's too hard to call," she argues. In other words: diversify.
LPL's Detrick is of the same mind, arguing that in this scenario, instead of investors trying to "pick a favorite" in the market, "having more of a barbell approach with some growth and some value makes a lot of sense."
No matter where the U.S. economy is headed, it can't hurt to be prepared.