上周,,投資者似乎在加密貨幣市場(chǎng)遭遇伏擊,。
IntoTheBlock的研究主管盧卡斯·奧圖穆羅于6月17日在郵件中指出,強(qiáng)制拋售和流動(dòng)性問(wèn)題“導(dǎo)致了加密貨幣領(lǐng)域最糟糕的季度價(jià)格表現(xiàn)之一”,。
“總的來(lái)說(shuō),,本周以加密貨幣的歷史性崩盤收尾。隨著整個(gè)市場(chǎng)的混亂接踵而至,,我們見(jiàn)證了多個(gè)指標(biāo)的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄動(dòng)蕩,。”奧圖穆羅寫道,?!氨M管現(xiàn)在說(shuō)已經(jīng)見(jiàn)底可能還為時(shí)過(guò)早,但這與以往的熊市有一些明顯的相似之處,?!?/p>
作為全球市值最大的加密貨幣,比特幣自2020年12月以來(lái)首次跌破20000美元,。第二大加密貨幣以太幣跌破1000美元,,這是自2021年1月以來(lái)從未見(jiàn)過(guò)的。加密貨幣的總市值低于1萬(wàn)億美元,,而歷史最高水平是3萬(wàn)億美元,。
在焦慮地關(guān)注鏈上動(dòng)向的同時(shí),投資者也想知道未來(lái)會(huì)發(fā)生什么,。業(yè)內(nèi)人士幾乎可以肯定的是許多項(xiàng)目將會(huì)消失,,同時(shí)補(bǔ)充說(shuō),這揭示了中心化和杠桿問(wèn)題,;但對(duì)他們中的一些人來(lái)說(shuō),,卻還有一線希望。
加密貨幣交易所dYdX的增長(zhǎng)主管科里·米勒告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“[出現(xiàn)這種情況]是健康的,?!?/p>
短期調(diào)整
業(yè)內(nèi)人士預(yù)測(cè),至少在短期內(nèi),,加密貨幣市場(chǎng)的多米諾骨牌效應(yīng)可能會(huì)持續(xù)下去,。對(duì)于面臨過(guò)高杠桿率或其他運(yùn)營(yíng)問(wèn)題的投資者和項(xiàng)目來(lái)說(shuō),未來(lái)還會(huì)有更多痛苦,。這一切似乎都能夠追溯到Terra,。
盡管宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素(包括美國(guó)高于預(yù)期的通脹數(shù)據(jù))為逆風(fēng)的到來(lái)奠定了基礎(chǔ),但Terra生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的崩潰是不可否認(rèn)的大爆炸,。Terra生態(tài)中的穩(wěn)定幣TerraUSD(UST)及其原始加密貨幣Luna(LUNC)遭遇崩盤,,變得幾乎一文不值。
在鼎盛時(shí)期,,UST和LUNC的市值為600億美元,,在今年5月暴跌至接近零后,,上周對(duì)相關(guān)機(jī)構(gòu)的影響變得明顯。加密貨幣市場(chǎng)最大的借貸平臺(tái)之一Celsius Network在6月19日暫停提款,,引發(fā)了有關(guān)其破產(chǎn)的傳言,。不久之后,有關(guān)規(guī)模達(dá)數(shù)十億美元基金的Three Arrows Capital狀況的報(bào)道接踵而至,,進(jìn)一步加劇了對(duì)蔓延和系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的擔(dān)憂,。隨著時(shí)間的推移,越來(lái)越多的公司和平臺(tái)都在提供財(cái)務(wù)狀況最新信息或表明其沒(méi)有財(cái)務(wù)狀況新消息,。
從主要參與者到普通投資者,,影響范圍廣泛。即便是與加密貨幣相關(guān)的主要公司,,例如 Coinbase,、Gemini、BlockFi和Crypto.com,,最近也宣布裁員——其中幾家公司剛剛在超級(jí)碗(Super Bowl)的廣告上投入了數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元,,因?yàn)槟菚r(shí)加密貨幣的市值接近峰值。
“現(xiàn)在情況真的很不穩(wěn)定,,需要一段時(shí)間才可以穩(wěn)定下來(lái),。人們正在觀望并等待看其他加密貨幣是否會(huì)崩盤?!奔用茇泿沤灰坠綝exterity Capital的管理合伙人邁克爾·薩法伊向《財(cái)富》雜志表示,。要構(gòu)建一個(gè)“值得信賴的生態(tài)系統(tǒng),投資者必須確信當(dāng)他們投入資金后,,他們能夠?qū)⑵淙〕?。目前這種情況肯定會(huì)大大削弱這種信任?!?/p>
Galaxy Digital Trading的聯(lián)席主管賈森·厄本告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,,目前,我們有點(diǎn)“宿醉”,。在短期內(nèi),,市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)。
“我認(rèn)為在接下來(lái)的三到六周內(nèi),,人們將弄清楚到底發(fā)生了什么,,以及誰(shuí)走出來(lái)了,誰(shuí)沒(méi)有走出來(lái),。這是第一步,。”厄本說(shuō)。隨后,,“會(huì)有項(xiàng)目失敗,也會(huì)有項(xiàng)目大獲成功,?!彼a(bǔ)充道。
加密貨幣交易所dYdX的增長(zhǎng)主管米勒向《財(cái)富》雜志表示,,我們現(xiàn)在看到的是“從生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中消除過(guò)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”,。他認(rèn)為,這是一種健康的發(fā)展,?!凹用茇泿抛鳛橐粋€(gè)整體仍然可以抵御風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?!?/p>
展望未來(lái)
從這次崩盤中走出來(lái)后,,加密貨幣的主要參與者表示,這個(gè)領(lǐng)域肯定會(huì)發(fā)生變化,。他們可能會(huì)對(duì)某些項(xiàng)目有所猶豫,,尤其是那些通過(guò)過(guò)度杠桿化提供極高收益的平臺(tái)。監(jiān)管也可能很快跟進(jìn),,但許多業(yè)內(nèi)人士仍然看好未來(lái)的創(chuàng)新,。
厄本將加密貨幣市場(chǎng)目前的現(xiàn)狀與2000年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破裂進(jìn)行了比較。展望未來(lái),,他預(yù)測(cè),,伴隨著困境,創(chuàng)新將在這一時(shí)期出現(xiàn),。許多人也附和了他的言論,。
狂熱的加密貨幣投資者馬克·庫(kù)班在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)說(shuō):“在股市和加密貨幣領(lǐng)域,你會(huì)看到那些依靠低息借款但沒(méi)有有效商業(yè)前景維持的公司消失,。就像[沃倫·]巴菲特所說(shuō),,當(dāng)潮水退去時(shí),你就可以看到誰(shuí)在裸泳,?!?/p>
加密貨幣交易所FTX的首席執(zhí)行官薩姆·班克曼-弗里德還告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,雖然這對(duì)“管理不善或用處不大的項(xiàng)目”來(lái)說(shuō)將是一個(gè)“非常糟糕”的時(shí)期,,但對(duì)于有價(jià)值的項(xiàng)目來(lái)說(shuō),,情況將“不會(huì)那么糟糕”?!拔艺J(rèn)為我們不會(huì)看到行業(yè)消亡,,但我們可能會(huì)看到一些行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向更復(fù)雜的版本。”
從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,,薩法伊認(rèn)為過(guò)高的收益率和杠桿率會(huì)減少,。
薩法伊說(shuō):“還有很多事情要做。不勞而獲的時(shí)代已經(jīng)結(jié)束了,。此時(shí),,大量杠桿將從系統(tǒng)中撤出,這最終將使加密貨幣生態(tài)系統(tǒng)更安全,?!?/p>
米勒指出,這次低迷表明,,與加密貨幣相關(guān)的項(xiàng)目和基金的“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比謹(jǐn)慎項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更大”,。“與其他低迷類似,,許多參與者被迫拋售,,隨后被淘汰出局?!?/p>
為了應(yīng)對(duì)此次崩盤,,政府監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)表示將進(jìn)一步完善加密貨幣市場(chǎng)的監(jiān)管框架。對(duì)于政府的干預(yù),,業(yè)內(nèi)人士百感交集,,但不管他們喜歡與否,政府干預(yù)都可能發(fā)生,。
加密貨幣借貸平臺(tái)Ledn的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人及首席執(zhí)行官亞當(dāng)·里德斯向《財(cái)富》表示:“我們認(rèn)為,,監(jiān)管的出現(xiàn)是我們行業(yè)的一個(gè)積極發(fā)展,因?yàn)樗鼘⑵仁箙⑴c者披露更多的細(xì)節(jié),,以便客戶更好地評(píng)估相關(guān)的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),,以及不同公司之間風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的差異?!?/p>
區(qū)塊鏈娛樂(lè)平臺(tái)Sator的首席執(zhí)行官伊斯拉·佩爾菲托告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,,盡管最近發(fā)生的事件,比如UST和LUNC的崩盤,,“對(duì)加密貨幣市場(chǎng)情緒構(gòu)成了威脅,,是監(jiān)管出現(xiàn)的催化劑,但它最終不會(huì)阻止Web3的創(chuàng)新增長(zhǎng),?!?/p>
經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)
盡管一些業(yè)內(nèi)資深人士認(rèn)為,本輪低迷與之前的“加密貨幣寒冬”有相似之處,,但此次崩盤的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)將對(duì)未來(lái)產(chǎn)生其他影響,。
Messari的高級(jí)研究分析師湯姆·鄧?yán)S表示,,從這次低迷中走出來(lái)的“最重要的事情”將是“關(guān)注基本面”。
鄧?yán)S在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)說(shuō):“過(guò)去,,最有趣的新項(xiàng)目獲得資金后,,會(huì)發(fā)展到令人難以置信的規(guī)模以實(shí)現(xiàn)他們實(shí)際能夠完成(或真正可以完成)的目標(biāo)。未來(lái)的重點(diǎn)將是強(qiáng)大的協(xié)議,、團(tuán)隊(duì)和用例,。”
他還預(yù)測(cè),,此次低迷將“從根本上結(jié)束”以太坊競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手之間的“戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”?!氨忍貛藕鸵蕴贿€會(huì)存在,,然后將有非常多項(xiàng)目爭(zhēng)奪剩下的20%至30%的加密貨幣市值?!?/p>
業(yè)內(nèi)人士表示,,此次崩盤的重大啟示也將塑造該領(lǐng)域的未來(lái)。
“現(xiàn)在每個(gè)人都必須認(rèn)真審視自己的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理,,但交易所似乎對(duì)這種瘋狂行為完全免疫,。隨著每個(gè)人手頭的資金越來(lái)越少,交易者面臨的問(wèn)題將是如何在杠桿率有限的世界中更聰明地配置資金并優(yōu)化活動(dòng),?!彼_法伊表示。
這將非常重要,,因?yàn)椤吧贁?shù)幾家貿(mào)易公司構(gòu)成了市場(chǎng)活動(dòng)的重要組成部分,,它們對(duì)市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)不可或缺?!彼f(shuō),。“經(jīng)歷過(guò)其他漫長(zhǎng)的加密貨幣低迷期的商店將依靠這種經(jīng)驗(yàn)繼續(xù)發(fā)展,,并且可能會(huì)變得更加強(qiáng)大,,從而使行業(yè)受益?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
上周,,投資者似乎在加密貨幣市場(chǎng)遭遇伏擊。
IntoTheBlock的研究主管盧卡斯·奧圖穆羅于6月17日在郵件中指出,,強(qiáng)制拋售和流動(dòng)性問(wèn)題“導(dǎo)致了加密貨幣領(lǐng)域最糟糕的季度價(jià)格表現(xiàn)之一”,。
“總的來(lái)說(shuō),本周以加密貨幣的歷史性崩盤收尾,。隨著整個(gè)市場(chǎng)的混亂接踵而至,,我們見(jiàn)證了多個(gè)指標(biāo)的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄動(dòng)蕩,。”奧圖穆羅寫道,?!氨M管現(xiàn)在說(shuō)已經(jīng)見(jiàn)底可能還為時(shí)過(guò)早,但這與以往的熊市有一些明顯的相似之處,?!?/p>
作為全球市值最大的加密貨幣,比特幣自2020年12月以來(lái)首次跌破20000美元,。第二大加密貨幣以太幣跌破1000美元,,這是自2021年1月以來(lái)從未見(jiàn)過(guò)的。加密貨幣的總市值低于1萬(wàn)億美元,,而歷史最高水平是3萬(wàn)億美元,。
在焦慮地關(guān)注鏈上動(dòng)向的同時(shí),投資者也想知道未來(lái)會(huì)發(fā)生什么,。業(yè)內(nèi)人士幾乎可以肯定的是許多項(xiàng)目將會(huì)消失,,同時(shí)補(bǔ)充說(shuō),這揭示了中心化和杠桿問(wèn)題,;但對(duì)他們中的一些人來(lái)說(shuō),,卻還有一線希望。
加密貨幣交易所dYdX的增長(zhǎng)主管科里·米勒告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“[出現(xiàn)這種情況]是健康的,?!?/p>
短期調(diào)整
業(yè)內(nèi)人士預(yù)測(cè),至少在短期內(nèi),,加密貨幣市場(chǎng)的多米諾骨牌效應(yīng)可能會(huì)持續(xù)下去,。對(duì)于面臨過(guò)高杠桿率或其他運(yùn)營(yíng)問(wèn)題的投資者和項(xiàng)目來(lái)說(shuō),未來(lái)還會(huì)有更多痛苦,。這一切似乎都能夠追溯到Terra,。
盡管宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素(包括美國(guó)高于預(yù)期的通脹數(shù)據(jù))為逆風(fēng)的到來(lái)奠定了基礎(chǔ),但Terra生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的崩潰是不可否認(rèn)的大爆炸,。Terra生態(tài)中的穩(wěn)定幣TerraUSD(UST)及其原始加密貨幣Luna(LUNC)遭遇崩盤,,變得幾乎一文不值。
在鼎盛時(shí)期,,UST和LUNC的市值為600億美元,,在今年5月暴跌至接近零后,上周對(duì)相關(guān)機(jī)構(gòu)的影響變得明顯,。加密貨幣市場(chǎng)最大的借貸平臺(tái)之一Celsius Network在6月19日暫停提款,,引發(fā)了有關(guān)其破產(chǎn)的傳言。不久之后,,有關(guān)規(guī)模達(dá)數(shù)十億美元基金的Three Arrows Capital狀況的報(bào)道接踵而至,,進(jìn)一步加劇了對(duì)蔓延和系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的擔(dān)憂,。隨著時(shí)間的推移,越來(lái)越多的公司和平臺(tái)都在提供財(cái)務(wù)狀況最新信息或表明其沒(méi)有財(cái)務(wù)狀況新消息,。
從主要參與者到普通投資者,,影響范圍廣泛。即便是與加密貨幣相關(guān)的主要公司,,例如 Coinbase,、Gemini、BlockFi和Crypto.com,,最近也宣布裁員——其中幾家公司剛剛在超級(jí)碗(Super Bowl)的廣告上投入了數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元,,因?yàn)槟菚r(shí)加密貨幣的市值接近峰值。
“現(xiàn)在情況真的很不穩(wěn)定,,需要一段時(shí)間才可以穩(wěn)定下來(lái),。人們正在觀望并等待看其他加密貨幣是否會(huì)崩盤?!奔用茇泿沤灰坠綝exterity Capital的管理合伙人邁克爾·薩法伊向《財(cái)富》雜志表示,。要構(gòu)建一個(gè)“值得信賴的生態(tài)系統(tǒng),,投資者必須確信當(dāng)他們投入資金后,他們能夠?qū)⑵淙〕?。目前這種情況肯定會(huì)大大削弱這種信任?!?/p>
Galaxy Digital Trading的聯(lián)席主管賈森·厄本告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,,目前,,我們有點(diǎn)“宿醉”,。在短期內(nèi),市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)出現(xiàn)波動(dòng),。
“我認(rèn)為在接下來(lái)的三到六周內(nèi),,人們將弄清楚到底發(fā)生了什么,以及誰(shuí)走出來(lái)了,,誰(shuí)沒(méi)有走出來(lái),。這是第一步,?!倍虮菊f(shuō),。隨后,,“會(huì)有項(xiàng)目失敗,也會(huì)有項(xiàng)目大獲成功,?!彼a(bǔ)充道。
加密貨幣交易所dYdX的增長(zhǎng)主管米勒向《財(cái)富》雜志表示,,我們現(xiàn)在看到的是“從生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中消除過(guò)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”,。他認(rèn)為,這是一種健康的發(fā)展,?!凹用茇泿抛鳛橐粋€(gè)整體仍然可以抵御風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?!?/p>
展望未來(lái)
從這次崩盤中走出來(lái)后,,加密貨幣的主要參與者表示,這個(gè)領(lǐng)域肯定會(huì)發(fā)生變化,。他們可能會(huì)對(duì)某些項(xiàng)目有所猶豫,,尤其是那些通過(guò)過(guò)度杠桿化提供極高收益的平臺(tái)。監(jiān)管也可能很快跟進(jìn),,但許多業(yè)內(nèi)人士仍然看好未來(lái)的創(chuàng)新,。
厄本將加密貨幣市場(chǎng)目前的現(xiàn)狀與2000年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破裂進(jìn)行了比較。展望未來(lái),,他預(yù)測(cè),,伴隨著困境,,創(chuàng)新將在這一時(shí)期出現(xiàn)。許多人也附和了他的言論,。
狂熱的加密貨幣投資者馬克·庫(kù)班在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)說(shuō):“在股市和加密貨幣領(lǐng)域,,你會(huì)看到那些依靠低息借款但沒(méi)有有效商業(yè)前景維持的公司消失。就像[沃倫·]巴菲特所說(shuō),,當(dāng)潮水退去時(shí),,你就可以看到誰(shuí)在裸泳?!?/p>
加密貨幣交易所FTX的首席執(zhí)行官薩姆·班克曼-弗里德還告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,,雖然這對(duì)“管理不善或用處不大的項(xiàng)目”來(lái)說(shuō)將是一個(gè)“非常糟糕”的時(shí)期,但對(duì)于有價(jià)值的項(xiàng)目來(lái)說(shuō),,情況將“不會(huì)那么糟糕”,。“我認(rèn)為我們不會(huì)看到行業(yè)消亡,,但我們可能會(huì)看到一些行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向更復(fù)雜的版本,。”
從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,,薩法伊認(rèn)為過(guò)高的收益率和杠桿率會(huì)減少,。
薩法伊說(shuō):“還有很多事情要做。不勞而獲的時(shí)代已經(jīng)結(jié)束了,。此時(shí),,大量杠桿將從系統(tǒng)中撤出,,這最終將使加密貨幣生態(tài)系統(tǒng)更安全,。”
米勒指出,,這次低迷表明,,與加密貨幣相關(guān)的項(xiàng)目和基金的“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比謹(jǐn)慎項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更大”?!芭c其他低迷類似,,許多參與者被迫拋售,隨后被淘汰出局,?!?/p>
為了應(yīng)對(duì)此次崩盤,政府監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)表示將進(jìn)一步完善加密貨幣市場(chǎng)的監(jiān)管框架,。對(duì)于政府的干預(yù),,業(yè)內(nèi)人士百感交集,但不管他們喜歡與否,,政府干預(yù)都可能發(fā)生,。
加密貨幣借貸平臺(tái)Ledn的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人及首席執(zhí)行官亞當(dāng)·里德斯向《財(cái)富》表示:“我們認(rèn)為,,監(jiān)管的出現(xiàn)是我們行業(yè)的一個(gè)積極發(fā)展,因?yàn)樗鼘⑵仁箙⑴c者披露更多的細(xì)節(jié),,以便客戶更好地評(píng)估相關(guān)的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),,以及不同公司之間風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的差異?!?/p>
區(qū)塊鏈娛樂(lè)平臺(tái)Sator的首席執(zhí)行官伊斯拉·佩爾菲托告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,,盡管最近發(fā)生的事件,比如UST和LUNC的崩盤,,“對(duì)加密貨幣市場(chǎng)情緒構(gòu)成了威脅,,是監(jiān)管出現(xiàn)的催化劑,但它最終不會(huì)阻止Web3的創(chuàng)新增長(zhǎng),?!?/p>
經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)
盡管一些業(yè)內(nèi)資深人士認(rèn)為,本輪低迷與之前的“加密貨幣寒冬”有相似之處,,但此次崩盤的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)將對(duì)未來(lái)產(chǎn)生其他影響,。
Messari的高級(jí)研究分析師湯姆·鄧?yán)S表示,從這次低迷中走出來(lái)的“最重要的事情”將是“關(guān)注基本面”,。
鄧?yán)S在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)說(shuō):“過(guò)去,,最有趣的新項(xiàng)目獲得資金后,會(huì)發(fā)展到令人難以置信的規(guī)模以實(shí)現(xiàn)他們實(shí)際能夠完成(或真正可以完成)的目標(biāo),。未來(lái)的重點(diǎn)將是強(qiáng)大的協(xié)議,、團(tuán)隊(duì)和用例?!?/p>
他還預(yù)測(cè),,此次低迷將“從根本上結(jié)束”以太坊競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手之間的“戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”?!氨忍貛藕鸵蕴贿€會(huì)存在,,然后將有非常多項(xiàng)目爭(zhēng)奪剩下的20%至30%的加密貨幣市值?!?/p>
業(yè)內(nèi)人士表示,,此次崩盤的重大啟示也將塑造該領(lǐng)域的未來(lái)。
“現(xiàn)在每個(gè)人都必須認(rèn)真審視自己的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理,,但交易所似乎對(duì)這種瘋狂行為完全免疫,。隨著每個(gè)人手頭的資金越來(lái)越少,交易者面臨的問(wèn)題將是如何在杠桿率有限的世界中更聰明地配置資金并優(yōu)化活動(dòng),?!彼_法伊表示。
這將非常重要,因?yàn)椤吧贁?shù)幾家貿(mào)易公司構(gòu)成了市場(chǎng)活動(dòng)的重要組成部分,,它們對(duì)市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)不可或缺,。”他說(shuō),?!敖?jīng)歷過(guò)其他漫長(zhǎng)的加密貨幣低迷期的商店將依靠這種經(jīng)驗(yàn)繼續(xù)發(fā)展,并且可能會(huì)變得更加強(qiáng)大,,從而使行業(yè)受益,。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
It seemed like there was nowhere to hide in the crypto market last week.
Forced selling and liquidity troubles have “resulted in one of the worst quarterly price performances of the crypto space,” Lucas Outumuro, head of research at IntoTheBlock, wrote on June 17 in his newsletter.
“Overall, this week concludes a historic crash for crypto. We have witnessed record-level activity in multiple metrics as mayhem ensues throughout the market,” Outumuro wrote. “While it may still be too early to call the bottom, there are some evident similarities with previous bear markets.”
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell below $20,000 on Saturday for the first time since December 2020. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, dropped below $1,000, a level not seen since January 2021. The overall cryptocurrency market cap is below $1 trillion, from an all-time high north of $3 trillion.
As they anxiously watch on-chain movement, investors are wondering what’s ahead. Industry players are nearly certain that many projects will disappear, while adding that this reveals issues with centralization and leverage issues, but to some of them, there’s a silver lining.
“This is healthy,” Corey Miller, growth lead at cryptocurrency exchange dYdX, told Fortune.
Short-term adjustments
The domino effect within the cryptocurrency market will likely continue, at least in the short term, industry players predict. More pain is ahead for investors and projects exposed to excessive leverage or other operational issues. It seems to all trace back to Terra.
Though macroeconomic factors, including higher than expected inflation numbers in the U.S., set the stage for headwinds to come, the Terra ecosystem collapse—with failed algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) and its original cryptocurrency Luna (LUNC) becoming nearly worthless—was an undeniable big bang in the space.
At its height, UST and LUNC were worth $60 billion, and after they collapsed to about zero in May, the impact on connected institutions became apparent last week. One of the cryptocurrency market’s biggest lending platforms, Celsius Network, paused its withdrawals on June 19, sparking rumors of bankruptcy. Reports concerning the state of multibillion-dollar fund Three Arrows Capital followed soon after, fueling further fears of contagion and systemic risk. As days go on, more and more firms, companies, and platforms alike are coming forward with updates on their financial health or lack thereof.
From big players to everyday investors, the impact is being felt far and wide. Even major cryptocurrency-related companies, like Coinbase, Gemini, BlockFi and Crypto.com, recently announced layoffs and headcount reductions—several of them having just spent millions on Super Bowl ads as crypto’s market cap was near its peak.
“Things are really shaky right now and it’s going to take a while for things to stabilize. People are watching and waiting to see if something else will topple,” Michael Safai, managing partner at cryptocurrency trading firm Dexterity Capital, told Fortune. To be a “trusted ecosystem, investors have to feel confident that when they put money in, they’re able to get it out. This is definitely setting back a lot of that trust.”
Currently, we’re in a bit of a “hangover,” Jason Urban, co-head of Galaxy Digital Trading, told Fortune. In the near term, continued volatility is expected.
“I think for the next three to six weeks, people are going to be figuring out what exactly has happened, and who is well healed and who is not. That’s the first step,” Urban said. Subsequently, “there are going to be projects that don't make it, and there are going to be projects that become wildly successful,” he added.
What we are seeing now is “excessive risk being wiped out from the ecosystem,” Miller, growth lead at cryptocurrency exchange dYdX, told Fortune, which he says is a healthy development. “While it does reveal many interconnected links within crypto, these wipeouts support the idea that crypto as a whole remains resilient to existential risks.”
Looking ahead
Coming out of this crash, major players in crypto say changes are all but certain in the space. There might be a hesitancy towards certain projects, depending on their code and pitch, or with platforms offering extremely high yield by over-leveraging. Regulation may also soon follow, but many in the space remain bullish on future innovation.
Urban compared the current state of the crypto market to the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000. Looking ahead, he predicts that alongside the distress, innovation will come out of this time period. Many others echoed his remarks.
“In stocks and crypto, you will see companies that were sustained by cheap, easy money—but didn’t have valid business prospects—will disappear,” Mark Cuban, avid cryptocurrency investor, told Fortune. “Like [Warren] Buffett says, When the tide goes out, you get to see who is swimming naked.”
While this will be a “very bad” period for “poorly built or not very useful projects,” things will be “much less bad for valuable ones,” Sam Bankman-Fried, chief executive officer of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, also told Fortune. “I don't think we'll see sectors die out but we might see some rotate to more sophisticated versions.”
In the long term, Safai sees less excessive yield and leverage.
“There’s going to be a lot of shaking up to be done,” Safai said. “[T]his era of being able to get exceptional yield for nothing is over. This is when a lot of leverage is going to get pulled out of the system, and this will ultimately make the crypto ecosystem safer.”
This downturn has revealed the crypto-related projects and funds that were “utilizing more risk than what was prudent,” Miller said. “Similar to other downturns, many players become forced sellers and are subsequently washed out.”
In response to the carnage this time around, government regulators have already signaled interest in furthering the development of a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market. Those within the space have mixed feelings about government intervention, but it might be happening whether they like it or not.
“We believe that regulation is a positive development in our industry as it will force players to disclose more details on their activities so that clients can better assess the potential risks associated and how they vary across different companies,” Adam Reeds, co-founder and chief executive officer at cryptocurrency lending platform Ledn, told Fortune.
While recent events, like the collapse of UST and LUNC, has “posed a threat to crypto market sentiment and is a catalyst for regulation, it will ultimately not stop the growth of innovation in Web3,” Isla Perfito, chief executive officer of Sator, a blockchain-based entertainment platform, told Fortune.
Lessons learned
Though some industry veterans see similarities between this downturn and previous “crypto winters,” some lessons specific to this crash will carry extra weight going forward.
The “biggest thing” to come out of this downturn will be a “focus on fundamentals,” says Tom Dunleavy, Messari senior research analyst.
“In the past, … [t]he new and most interesting projects got the capital, and grew to unbelievably large sizes for what they were actually accomplishing (or could really accomplish),” Dunleavy told Fortune. “The focus going forward will be on strong protocols, strong teams, and strong use cases.”
He also predicts that this downturn will “essentially end” the “wars” between Ethereum (ETH) competitors. “There is going to be BTC [or Bitcoin] and ETH, and then a long tail of projects fighting for the remaining 20% to 30% of crypto market cap."
Major takeaways from this crash will also shape the future of the space, industry players say.
“Everyone is having to take a good hard look at their risk management right now, but exchanges seem to be pretty inoculated from this madness. With less capital at everyone’s fingertips, the question for traders will be how to more intelligently deploy capital and optimize activity in a world where leverage is limited,” Safai said.
This will be important because “a handful of trading firms make up a significant amount of market activity, and the market doesn’t want to be without them,” he said. “Shops that navigated other lengthy crypto downturns will lean on that experience and probably come out far stronger, to the benefit of the industry.”