即使美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)認為我們還沒有陷入經(jīng)濟衰退,,但由于美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值連續(xù)兩個季度出現(xiàn)下滑,華爾街的情緒仍然很焦慮,。但一位投資組合經(jīng)理認為,,有幾只股票能夠安然度過當前和即將到來的動蕩,并為投資者目前所承擔的風險提供回報,。
紐文首席信息官塞拉·馬利克(Saira Malik)告訴《財富》雜志:“我們?nèi)匀徽J為存在很多不確定性,,因此,你需要關(guān)注那些有彈性,、能夠在任何周期中幸存下來的優(yōu)質(zhì)公司,。”
馬利克指出了她關(guān)注的兩個主要風險:盈利預(yù)期下降——她稱之為“下一只掉落的靴子”(接下來必然會發(fā)生的事情)——以及美聯(lián)儲對抗通脹的力度有多大,。盡管有很多未知數(shù),,但她認為下一階段可能會進入“溫和”衰退。(至于周四公布的美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值負增長,,馬利克表示,,她將“稱之為技術(shù)性衰退,而不是教科書上定義的經(jīng)濟衰退”,。(經(jīng)濟連續(xù)2個季度出現(xiàn)負增長通常即認定為經(jīng)濟衰退))
對于馬利克來說,,投資者應(yīng)該以一種特殊的方式來玩這個游戲:“我想要實現(xiàn)的是,如果我承擔了風險,,我會因此而獲得回報,。”她說,?!斑@讓你關(guān)注那些規(guī)模更大、更有彈性的公司”,,而不是那些更具投機性且根據(jù)估值看起來非常便宜的公司,,“但也許它們的資產(chǎn)負債表并不那么強勁,或者它們無利可圖,?!?/p>
談到那些有彈性的大型公司,,馬利克青睞微軟公司(Microsoft)(MSFT,股價269 美元),。她表示:“我們總體上更青睞成長型股票,,因為它們在經(jīng)濟放緩的情況下更有彈性,并且考慮到它們的估值已經(jīng)下跌了那么多,,它們更有吸引力,。”她提到了今年的科技股暴跌,。馬利克認為,,它們擁有“相當有彈性的商業(yè)業(yè)務(wù),應(yīng)該更具防御性,。它們的云業(yè)務(wù)很強大,,在宏觀經(jīng)濟疲軟時期,客戶可能會開始整合供應(yīng)商,,在這種情況下,,微軟公司應(yīng)該會占據(jù)更大的市場份額?!贝送?,像微軟公司這樣的科技股“對經(jīng)濟增長的依賴程度較低”。該公司本周的業(yè)績略低于預(yù)期,,但給出了更為樂觀的前瞻指引,。馬利克指出,在消費需求疲軟的環(huán)境下,,微軟公司的業(yè)務(wù)更加依賴企業(yè),,“即使削減經(jīng)費,企業(yè)仍會在云等具有戰(zhàn)略意義的領(lǐng)域進行投資,?!?她還看好該股約1%的股息收益率,這在動蕩時期應(yīng)該能提供“投資組合保護”(有關(guān)目前值得購買的高股息股票,,請點擊此處閱讀《財富》雜志最近發(fā)表的文章),。今年以來,該股已下跌約20%,,未來12個月的市盈率約為26倍,,這可能為潛在買家提供了一個機會。
與此同時,,賽富時公司(Salesforce)(CRM,股價180 美元)也是一家類似的“有彈性的旗艦科技公司”,,受益于向云領(lǐng)域的持續(xù)過渡,。她還指出,,與微軟公司一樣,考慮到其今年近30%的跌幅,,賽富時公司“現(xiàn)在看起來非常有吸引力”,,如果她能夠“介入并以我們長久以來從未見過的水平購買微軟公司或賽富時公司的股票,我對這些事情更感興趣,?!痹摴傻倪h期市盈率約為 35倍,不算便宜,,但較今年早些時候60倍的區(qū)間已經(jīng)下跌了不少,。
由于投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)和資本市場收入大幅下滑,一些大型銀行報告收益微薄,,金融業(yè)正面臨逆風,;與此同時,交易帶來的提振“可能無法持續(xù)”,,馬利克認為,,在“消費信貸周期中,隨著消費需求疲軟,,大型銀行可能會面臨風險,。”這就是為什么她青睞地區(qū)性銀行,,例如在中西部和東南部開展業(yè)務(wù)的五三銀行公司(Fifth Third Bancorp)(FITB,,股價34美元)。馬利克表示,,它們沒有那么多“資本市場風險”,,還“涉足美國不斷增長的領(lǐng)域”。她還指出,,它們的“動量銀行”業(yè)務(wù),,提供早期直接存款和免費支票賬戶等服務(wù),“發(fā)展得非常好”,。盡管該股今年以來表現(xiàn)不佳,,自1月初以來下跌了近23%,但馬利克認為,,作為一家銀行,,它們也應(yīng)該從更高的利率中受益。該股的股息收益率也高達3.6%,。
馬利克還青睞龐貝捷工業(yè)公司(PPG Industries)(PPG, 股價127美元),,這是一家油漆和涂料供應(yīng)商,她認為這是一家“高質(zhì)量”的公司。她指出,,盡管龐貝捷工業(yè)公司一直在提高價格,,但“由于它們一直在應(yīng)對通貨膨脹,投入成本一直在上升”,,龐貝捷工業(yè)公司“一直在困境中掙扎”?,F(xiàn)在,隨著通脹可能開始降溫,,她認為“其投入成本應(yīng)該開始得到緩解,,他們一直試圖實現(xiàn)的兩位數(shù)價格上漲將開始惠及公司”及其利潤率。該股的遠期市盈率約為17倍,,迄今已下跌約26%,,馬利克認為“股價下跌反映了這一痛苦”。她認為,,隨著“市場復(fù)蘇,,其定價繼續(xù)有利于損益,我們認為應(yīng)該會有一個不錯的反彈,?!饼嬝惤莨I(yè)公司的股息收益率為2%——從某種程度上說,他們從1899年就開始派發(fā)股息了,。
所有股票價格計算截至2022年7月27日,。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
即使美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)認為我們還沒有陷入經(jīng)濟衰退,但由于美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值連續(xù)兩個季度出現(xiàn)下滑,,華爾街的情緒仍然很焦慮,。但一位投資組合經(jīng)理認為,有幾只股票能夠安然度過當前和即將到來的動蕩,,并為投資者目前所承擔的風險提供回報,。
紐文首席信息官塞拉·馬利克(Saira Malik)告訴《財富》雜志:“我們?nèi)匀徽J為存在很多不確定性,因此,,你需要關(guān)注那些有彈性,、能夠在任何周期中幸存下來的優(yōu)質(zhì)公司?!?/p>
馬利克指出了她關(guān)注的兩個主要風險:盈利預(yù)期下降——她稱之為“下一只掉落的靴子”(接下來必然會發(fā)生的事情)——以及美聯(lián)儲對抗通脹的力度有多大,。盡管有很多未知數(shù),但她認為下一階段可能會進入“溫和”衰退,。(至于周四公布的美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值負增長,,馬利克表示,她將“稱之為技術(shù)性衰退,,而不是教科書上定義的經(jīng)濟衰退”,。(經(jīng)濟連續(xù)2個季度出現(xiàn)負增長通常即認定為經(jīng)濟衰退))
對于馬利克來說,,投資者應(yīng)該以一種特殊的方式來玩這個游戲:“我想要實現(xiàn)的是,如果我承擔了風險,,我會因此而獲得回報,?!彼f,。“這讓你關(guān)注那些規(guī)模更大,、更有彈性的公司”,,而不是那些更具投機性且根據(jù)估值看起來非常便宜的公司,“但也許它們的資產(chǎn)負債表并不那么強勁,,或者它們無利可圖,。”
談到那些有彈性的大型公司,,馬利克青睞微軟公司(Microsoft)(MSFT,,股價269 美元)。她表示:“我們總體上更青睞成長型股票,,因為它們在經(jīng)濟放緩的情況下更有彈性,,并且考慮到它們的估值已經(jīng)下跌了那么多,它們更有吸引力,?!彼岬搅私衲甑目萍脊杀┑qR利克認為,,它們擁有“相當有彈性的商業(yè)業(yè)務(wù),,應(yīng)該更具防御性。它們的云業(yè)務(wù)很強大,,在宏觀經(jīng)濟疲軟時期,,客戶可能會開始整合供應(yīng)商,在這種情況下,,微軟公司應(yīng)該會占據(jù)更大的市場份額,。”此外,,像微軟公司這樣的科技股“對經(jīng)濟增長的依賴程度較低”,。該公司本周的業(yè)績略低于預(yù)期,但給出了更為樂觀的前瞻指引,。馬利克指出,,在消費需求疲軟的環(huán)境下,微軟公司的業(yè)務(wù)更加依賴企業(yè),,“即使削減經(jīng)費,,企業(yè)仍會在云等具有戰(zhàn)略意義的領(lǐng)域進行投資,。” 她還看好該股約1%的股息收益率,,這在動蕩時期應(yīng)該能提供“投資組合保護”(有關(guān)目前值得購買的高股息股票,,請點擊此處閱讀《財富》雜志最近發(fā)表的文章)。今年以來,,該股已下跌約20%,,未來12個月的市盈率約為26倍,這可能為潛在買家提供了一個機會,。
與此同時,,賽富時公司(Salesforce)(CRM,股價180 美元)也是一家類似的“有彈性的旗艦科技公司”,,受益于向云領(lǐng)域的持續(xù)過渡,。她還指出,與微軟公司一樣,,考慮到其今年近30%的跌幅,,賽富時公司“現(xiàn)在看起來非常有吸引力”,如果她能夠“介入并以我們長久以來從未見過的水平購買微軟公司或賽富時公司的股票,,我對這些事情更感興趣,。”該股的遠期市盈率約為 35倍,,不算便宜,,但較今年早些時候60倍的區(qū)間已經(jīng)下跌了不少。
由于投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)和資本市場收入大幅下滑,,一些大型銀行報告收益微薄,,金融業(yè)正面臨逆風;與此同時,,交易帶來的提振“可能無法持續(xù)”,,馬利克認為,在“消費信貸周期中,,隨著消費需求疲軟,,大型銀行可能會面臨風險?!边@就是為什么她青睞地區(qū)性銀行,,例如在中西部和東南部開展業(yè)務(wù)的五三銀行公司(Fifth Third Bancorp)(FITB,股價34美元),。馬利克表示,,它們沒有那么多“資本市場風險”,還“涉足美國不斷增長的領(lǐng)域”,。她還指出,,它們的“動量銀行”業(yè)務(wù),,提供早期直接存款和免費支票賬戶等服務(wù),“發(fā)展得非常好”,。盡管該股今年以來表現(xiàn)不佳,,自1月初以來下跌了近23%,但馬利克認為,,作為一家銀行,,它們也應(yīng)該從更高的利率中受益。該股的股息收益率也高達3.6%,。
馬利克還青睞龐貝捷工業(yè)公司(PPG Industries)(PPG, 股價127美元),,這是一家油漆和涂料供應(yīng)商,她認為這是一家“高質(zhì)量”的公司,。她指出,盡管龐貝捷工業(yè)公司一直在提高價格,,但“由于它們一直在應(yīng)對通貨膨脹,,投入成本一直在上升”,龐貝捷工業(yè)公司“一直在困境中掙扎”?,F(xiàn)在,,隨著通脹可能開始降溫,她認為“其投入成本應(yīng)該開始得到緩解,,他們一直試圖實現(xiàn)的兩位數(shù)價格上漲將開始惠及公司”及其利潤率,。該股的遠期市盈率約為17倍,迄今已下跌約26%,,馬利克認為“股價下跌反映了這一痛苦”,。她認為,隨著“市場復(fù)蘇,,其定價繼續(xù)有利于損益,,我們認為應(yīng)該會有一個不錯的反彈?!饼嬝惤莨I(yè)公司的股息收益率為2%——從某種程度上說,,他們從1899年就開始派發(fā)股息了。
所有股票價格計算截至2022年7月27日,。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Even if Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell doesn’t think we’re in a recession yet, the mood on the Street is angsty as the economy just registered two consecutive quarters of GDP declines. But one portfolio manager believes a few stocks could ride out the current and coming turmoil—and reward investors for the risk they’re taking on those bets now.
“We still think that there’s a lot of uncertainty out there, so you need to focus on quality companies that are resilient companies that can survive any kind of cycle,” Saira Malik, the CIO of Nuveen, told Fortune.
Malik points to two key risks she’s eyeing: earnings estimates declining—what she calls the “next shoe to drop”—and how aggressive the Fed will end up being to combat inflation. And though there are a lot of unknowns, she believes the next phase is likely heading into a “mild” recession. (As for Thursday’s negative GDP number, Malik says she would “call it a technical recession rather than a textbook recession.”)
For Malik, there’s a particular way investors should play this: “I want areas where, if I’m taking the risk, I’m getting rewarded for it,” she says. “That puts you in these sort of larger, more resilient companies” versus those that are more speculative and look very cheap based on their valuation, “but maybe their balance sheet isn’t that strong or they’re unprofitable.”
When it comes to those large, resilient companies, Malik likes Microsoft (MSFT, $269). “We prefer growth stocks in general, because they’re more resilient in a slowing economy, and [are more attractive] given the valuations of how far they’ve fallen,” she said, noting the tech rout this year. Malik believes they have a “pretty resilient commercial business that should be more defensive. Their cloud business is strong, and in a period of weaker macro, customers could start to consolidate vendors and Microsoft should be a market share winner in that scenario,” she argues. Plus, tech stocks like Microsoft are “l(fā)ess reliant on the economy growing.” The company just missed earnings estimates this week, but gave more upbeat forward guidance. In an environment where the consumer is starting to show signs of weakness, Malik notes Microsoft’s business is more dependent on enterprises, which, “even if they cut back spending, they’re still going to spend on things that are strategic, like the cloud.” She also likes the stock’s roughly 1% dividend yield, which should provide “portfolio protection” in rockier times (for a look at the top dividend stocks to buy now, read Fortune‘s recent piece here). With the stock down roughly 20% so far this year, and trading around 26 times next 12 months earnings, it could provide an opening for a prospective buyer.
Salesforce (CRM, $180), meanwhile, is a similarly “resilient, flagship technology company” that’s benefitting from the continued transition to the cloud. She also points out that, like Microsoft, Salesforce is “l(fā)ooking very attractive right now” considering its nearly 30% selloff this year, and that if she can “step in and buy a Microsoft or Salesforce at levels we haven’t seen in a long time, I’m more interested in that.” Trading at a forward P/E of around 35, the stock isn’t cheap, but it’s down quite a bit from the 60s range earlier this year.
Elsewhere, the financial sector is facing headwinds as some big banks report meager earnings as investment banking and capital markets revenues have slumped; the boost from trading, meanwhile, “may not be sustainable,” and in the “consumer credit cycle, with a weaker consumer, [there] could be an overhang for larger banks,” suggests Malik. That’s why she’s favoring regional banks like Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB, $34), which operates in the Midwest and Southeast. Malik says they don’t have as much of the “capital markets risk,” and points to their “diversified footprint in areas that are growing in the U.S.” She also notes their “Momentum Banking” business, which offers things like early direct deposits and free checking accounts, has been “growing very nicely for them.” Though the stock has been having a rough year so far, down nearly 23% since the start of January, Malik believes they should, as a bank, also benefit from higher rates. The stock also comes with a hefty 3.6% dividend yield.
Malik also likes PPG Industries (PPG, $127), a paint and coating supplier that she considers to be a “high quality” company. She notes PPG has “struggled quite a bit because of their input costs” which “have been going up [as] they’ve been dealing with inflation,” though they have been increasing prices, she notes. Now, as inflation likely cools from here, she believes “their input costs should start to be alleviated and these double digit price increases that they’ve been trying to put through will start to benefit the company” and their margins. Trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 17, the stock has sold off about 26% so far this year, and Malik believes “much of the pain is priced into the stock.” She suggests that as “markets recover and their pricing continues to benefit the P&L, we think that should have a nice rebound.” PPG also boasts a 2% dividend yield—something they’ve been paying out, to some degree, since 1899.
All stock prices calculated as of Jul. 27, 2022.