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從一張圖看商品價(jià)格,,劇烈波動(dòng)難以預(yù)測(cè)

MEGAN LEONHARDT
2022-08-15

雖然7月份通貨膨脹總體上有所消退,,但通脹率下降幅度在各類(lèi)商品中的表現(xiàn)并不均衡。

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通貨膨脹正在消退,,但通脹率下降幅度在各商品和服務(wù)中表現(xiàn)并不均衡,。

7月份,通貨膨脹率環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)0%,。年通貨膨脹率甚至從6月份的9.1%下降到7月份的8.5%,。專(zhuān)家很快表示,該數(shù)據(jù)變化表明美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)穩(wěn)定消費(fèi)價(jià)格的舉措初見(jiàn)成效,。但現(xiàn)在宣布勝利可能還為時(shí)尚早,,因?yàn)槠汀⑵?chē)等商品的價(jià)格每個(gè)月仍在劇烈波動(dòng),。

消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)是一個(gè)平均衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn),,在很多方面并不完美。它本質(zhì)上是對(duì)數(shù)百種不同商品的價(jià)格進(jìn)行計(jì)算,,各類(lèi)商品被賦予了不同的權(quán)重,。例如,房?jī)r(jià)所占權(quán)重比能源成本要高得多,。此外,,該指數(shù)并沒(méi)有跟蹤農(nóng)村地區(qū)居民的消費(fèi)模式,也沒(méi)有涵蓋美國(guó)軍人或監(jiān)獄,、精神病院人員的消費(fèi)模式,。

雖然7月份通貨膨脹總體上有所消退,但通脹率下降幅度在各類(lèi)商品中的表現(xiàn)并不均衡,。上個(gè)月整體通貨膨脹率的下降很大程度上是由于汽油價(jià)格的下跌,。繼6月份汽油價(jià)格環(huán)比上漲11.2%之后,,7月份CPI汽油指數(shù)下跌7.7%,。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)(Council of Economic Advisors)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,7月份總體能源價(jià)格下降4.6%,,使上個(gè)月的月度通脹率下降了約41個(gè)基點(diǎn),。

這的確是個(gè)好消息,,但能源只占CPI計(jì)算權(quán)重的7.5%左右。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)指出,,由于俄烏沖突持續(xù),,能源價(jià)格可能在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月繼續(xù)波動(dòng)。

另一方面,,食品價(jià)格和房?jī)r(jià)沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)同樣的劇烈漲跌,,而是一直在穩(wěn)步上漲。消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,7月份食品價(jià)格整體上漲1.1%,,其中食品雜貨支出上漲1.3%。食品價(jià)格的上漲使月度通脹率增加了約15個(gè)基點(diǎn),。

如果這種上漲勢(shì)頭持續(xù)下去,,可能對(duì)消費(fèi)者造成長(zhǎng)期困擾。食品和住房在該指數(shù)中的權(quán)重最大,,約占CPI這一通脹指標(biāo)的46%,。特別是,房?jī)r(jià)往往比汽油或汽車(chē)成本更具粘性,。

美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)與政策研究中心(Center for Economic and Policy Research)的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家迪恩?貝克寫(xiě)道:“7月份的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)好壞參半,。汽油價(jià)格的暴跌意味著人們的口袋里有錢(qián),但食品價(jià)格仍在迅速上漲,?!?/p>

大多數(shù)消費(fèi)者可能不會(huì)看到物價(jià)上漲后的大幅回落,但專(zhuān)家預(yù)計(jì),,通脹率下降將有助于放慢美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息的步伐,。PNC金融服務(wù)公司的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家?guī)鞝柼?蘭金表示:“與通脹的斗爭(zhēng)尚未結(jié)束,但7月份的數(shù)據(jù)表明,,政府正在采取正確的措施,。”

“盡管日用必需品的價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲,,但這類(lèi)商品價(jià)格的上漲速度已經(jīng)放緩,,能源成本當(dāng)月大幅回落。未來(lái)幾個(gè)月,,其他消費(fèi)品和服務(wù)將面臨較弱的價(jià)格壓力,,”蘭金補(bǔ)充道。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:郝秀

審校:汪皓

通貨膨脹正在消退,,但通脹率下降幅度在各商品和服務(wù)中表現(xiàn)并不均衡,。

7月份,通貨膨脹率環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)0%,。年通貨膨脹率甚至從6月份的9.1%下降到7月份的8.5%,。專(zhuān)家很快表示,,該數(shù)據(jù)變化表明美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)穩(wěn)定消費(fèi)價(jià)格的舉措初見(jiàn)成效。但現(xiàn)在宣布勝利可能還為時(shí)尚早,,因?yàn)槠?、汽?chē)等商品的價(jià)格每個(gè)月仍在劇烈波動(dòng)。

消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)是一個(gè)平均衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn),,在很多方面并不完美,。它本質(zhì)上是對(duì)數(shù)百種不同商品的價(jià)格進(jìn)行計(jì)算,各類(lèi)商品被賦予了不同的權(quán)重,。例如,,房?jī)r(jià)所占權(quán)重比能源成本要高得多。此外,,該指數(shù)并沒(méi)有跟蹤農(nóng)村地區(qū)居民的消費(fèi)模式,,也沒(méi)有涵蓋美國(guó)軍人或監(jiān)獄、精神病院人員的消費(fèi)模式,。

雖然7月份通貨膨脹總體上有所消退,,但通脹率下降幅度在各類(lèi)商品中的表現(xiàn)并不均衡。上個(gè)月整體通貨膨脹率的下降很大程度上是由于汽油價(jià)格的下跌,。繼6月份汽油價(jià)格環(huán)比上漲11.2%之后,,7月份CPI汽油指數(shù)下跌7.7%。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)(Council of Economic Advisors)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,7月份總體能源價(jià)格下降4.6%,,使上個(gè)月的月度通脹率下降了約41個(gè)基點(diǎn)。

這的確是個(gè)好消息,,但能源只占CPI計(jì)算權(quán)重的7.5%左右,。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)指出,由于俄烏沖突持續(xù),,能源價(jià)格可能在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月繼續(xù)波動(dòng),。

另一方面,食品價(jià)格和房?jī)r(jià)沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)同樣的劇烈漲跌,,而是一直在穩(wěn)步上漲,。消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,7月份食品價(jià)格整體上漲1.1%,,其中食品雜貨支出上漲1.3%,。食品價(jià)格的上漲使月度通脹率增加了約15個(gè)基點(diǎn)。

如果這種上漲勢(shì)頭持續(xù)下去,,可能對(duì)消費(fèi)者造成長(zhǎng)期困擾,。食品和住房在該指數(shù)中的權(quán)重最大,約占CPI這一通脹指標(biāo)的46%。特別是,,房?jī)r(jià)往往比汽油或汽車(chē)成本更具粘性。

美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)與政策研究中心(Center for Economic and Policy Research)的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家迪恩?貝克寫(xiě)道:“7月份的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)好壞參半,。汽油價(jià)格的暴跌意味著人們的口袋里有錢(qián),,但食品價(jià)格仍在迅速上漲?!?/p>

大多數(shù)消費(fèi)者可能不會(huì)看到物價(jià)上漲后的大幅回落,,但專(zhuān)家預(yù)計(jì),通脹率下降將有助于放慢美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息的步伐,。PNC金融服務(wù)公司的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家?guī)鞝柼?蘭金表示:“與通脹的斗爭(zhēng)尚未結(jié)束,,但7月份的數(shù)據(jù)表明,政府正在采取正確的措施,?!?/p>

“盡管日用必需品的價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲,但這類(lèi)商品價(jià)格的上漲速度已經(jīng)放緩,,能源成本當(dāng)月大幅回落,。未來(lái)幾個(gè)月,其他消費(fèi)品和服務(wù)將面臨較弱的價(jià)格壓力,,”蘭金補(bǔ)充道,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:郝秀

審校:汪皓

Inflation is falling, but it’s not happening evenly across all goods and services.

On a month-to-month basis, there was a 0% increase in inflation in July. The annual inflation rate even dropped from 9.1% in June to 8.5% in July. Pundits were quick to argue this shows the Federal Reserve is seeing some early success in its actions to stabilize the prices of consumer goods. But it’s probably too soon to declare victory, since the cost of things like gas and cars are still swinging wildly from month to month.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an average measure, and it’s imperfect in many ways. It’s essentially a calculation of prices across hundreds of different categories—and not all are weighted equally. Housing prices, for example, count for a lot more than energy costs. And the CPI doesn’t track spending patterns of those living in rural areas, for example, nor Americans in the armed forces or those living in institutions such as prisons or mental health hospitals.

While overall inflation fell in July, it’s not consistent across all types of goods. Last month’s decline in overall inflation was driven, in large part, by falling gas prices. The CPI logged a 7.7% drop in July gasoline costs after jumping 11.2% month-over-month in June. Overall energy prices dropped by 4.6% in July, subtracting about 41 basis points from the total monthly inflation last month, according to the Council of Economic Advisors.

This is good news, but energy only makes up about 7.5% of the total CPI calculation. And it's likely energy prices will continue to be volatile in coming months thanks to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, the Council noted.

Food and housing prices, on the other hand, haven’t seen the same wild spikes and troughs—instead these expenses have been steadily on the rise. Overall food prices rose 1.1% in July, with grocery expenses specifically hitting 1.3%, according to the CPI. That bump in food prices added about 15 basis points.

If that upward momentum continues, it could be problematic for consumers long-term. Together, food and housing carry the most weight in the index, making up about 46% of the overall CPI inflation measure. And housing prices, in particular, tend to be stickier than gas or car costs.

“The July Consumer Price Index data are a mixed picture. The plunge in gas prices means money in people’s pockets, but food prices are still rising rapidly,” wrote Dean Baker, senior economist with the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

Most consumers likely won’t see a major break from rising prices, but experts predict the drop in inflation will help moderate the Fed’s pace of rising interest rates. “The fight against inflation is not over, but July’s results suggest that steps in the right direction are being taken,” says Kurt Rankin, PNC senior economist.

“Although prices continue to rise for everyday necessities, the pace of gains for such items slowed, and energy costs fell back sharply for the month which should flow through to weaker price pressure on other consumer goods and services in the months to come," Rankin added.

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