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秋季來(lái)臨,,一種全新的新冠毒株在迅猛傳播

Erin Prater
2022-09-23

新冠病毒在不斷演化,變得更具免疫逃避能力,。

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2020年10月25日,,戴著口罩的女子穿過(guò)滿是落葉的紐約市艾滋病紀(jì)念公園(NYC AIDS Memorial Park),。圖片來(lái)源:ALEXI ROSENFELD/GETTY IMAGES

本周,一種全新的新冠病毒毒株掀起新一輪疫情,,超過(guò)了今年秋天科學(xué)家在美國(guó)追蹤的幾乎所有其他變體,。

根據(jù)美國(guó)疾病控制與預(yù)防中心(U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)的新數(shù)據(jù),上周的病例基因測(cè)序結(jié)果顯示,,感染這種被科學(xué)家命名為BF.7的變體(BA.5.2.1.7的縮寫(xiě))的病例占美國(guó)確診病例的1.7%,。目前爭(zhēng)奪頭把交椅的其他變體——BA.5,占美國(guó)確診病例的85%——包括BA.4.6,,占美國(guó)確診病例的10.3%,,以及BA.2.75,占美國(guó)確診病例的1.3%,。

科學(xué)家們開(kāi)始關(guān)注BF.7,,因?yàn)樗谌找嬖龆嗟膴W密克戎亞型變異毒株中傳播迅猛。幾個(gè)月來(lái),,科學(xué)家們一直在關(guān)注BA.2.75——在推特(Twitter)的空間上被稱為“半人馬座”——一種可能在今年秋天導(dǎo)致感染人數(shù)激增的變體,。但本周,BF.7超越了BA.2.75,。

可能比BA.5更容易傳播

BF.7在美國(guó)才剛剛開(kāi)始傳播,,但已經(jīng)肆虐其他國(guó)家。

基于所有@GISAID + @CovidGenomicsUK數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)全球SARS-CoV2譜系頻率擬合進(jìn)行了更新,,現(xiàn)在分別表示BF.7/BA.5.2.1.7,。BA.2.75感染病例仍然預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)在許多地方會(huì)超過(guò)BA.5.2.1.7感染病例,但BA.5.2.1.7與普通BA.5相比具有相似的優(yōu)勢(shì),,因此導(dǎo)致結(jié)果不同,。pic.twitter.com/ThB42hdBHO

——湯姆·溫斯勒斯(@TWenseleers),2022年8月21日

到目前為止,,在全球確診病例中,,比利時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)的BF.7感染病例占比最大,達(dá)到25%,。根據(jù)cov-lineages.org的數(shù)據(jù),,迄今為止,丹麥,、德國(guó)和法國(guó)的BF.7感染病例分別占全球確診病例的10%,。cov-lineages.org是新冠疫情數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),由來(lái)自英國(guó),、蘇格蘭和澳大利亞等國(guó)大學(xué)的參與者每日更新,。

美國(guó)疾病控制與預(yù)防中心首次報(bào)告了這種新的亞型變異毒株,它是BA.5病例的一部分,在今年夏天引起了廣泛關(guān)注,。但約翰斯·霍普金斯大學(xué)醫(yī)學(xué)系(Johns Hopkins’ Department of Medicine)的負(fù)責(zé)數(shù)據(jù)完整性和分析的醫(yī)學(xué)副主任斯圖爾特·雷博士對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,,美國(guó)疾病控制與預(yù)防中心最近在病例超過(guò)1%時(shí)將其單獨(dú)分類。

雷表示,,“BF.7感染病例在多個(gè)國(guó)家有著相同的增長(zhǎng)優(yōu)勢(shì),,這讓我們有理由認(rèn)為BF.7正在站穩(wěn)腳跟”,而且它可能比母株BA.5更具傳播性,。除非子毒株“另有優(yōu)勢(shì),,否則相對(duì)于其母株而言,,子毒株不會(huì)導(dǎo)致廣泛傳播”,。

他補(bǔ)充說(shuō),雖然我們對(duì)BF.7可能導(dǎo)致的疾病的嚴(yán)重程度一無(wú)所知,,但到目前為止,,所有奧密克戎亞型變異毒株的嚴(yán)重程度都很相似。

這種新的亞型變異毒株的刺突蛋白發(fā)生了變化——這一特點(diǎn)允許它進(jìn)入細(xì)胞——這在其他傳播迅猛的奧密克戎毒株中可見(jiàn),。它的核苷酸序列也發(fā)生了變化——有時(shí)被稱為生物體的藍(lán)圖——這可能導(dǎo)致它的行為與其他亞型變異毒株不同,。但雷說(shuō),如果有進(jìn)化分歧的話,,進(jìn)化分歧的程度目前還不得而知,。

根據(jù)雷的說(shuō)法,新冠病毒在不斷演化,,變得更具免疫逃避能力,,而奧密克戎正在呈指數(shù)級(jí)擴(kuò)散。他補(bǔ)充說(shuō),,如果今年秋天出現(xiàn)一個(gè)全新的變體,,他一點(diǎn)都不會(huì)感到驚訝。

“我們從變異毒株阿爾法到貝塔,,到伽馬到德?tīng)査?,再到奧密克戎,已經(jīng)有很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間了,?!崩渍f(shuō)?!拔覀兛赡軙?huì)變得自滿,。這可能會(huì)讓人產(chǎn)生這樣的觀念——這一切都已經(jīng)過(guò)去了?!?/p>

雷指出,,無(wú)論有沒(méi)有新的母株的變體出現(xiàn),奧密克戎毒株擴(kuò)散都可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致今年秋冬防疫很艱難。

他有什么建議嗎,?繼續(xù)戴口罩,,并接種加強(qiáng)針。請(qǐng)記住,,新冠疫情還沒(méi)有結(jié)束,。

雷說(shuō):“有人預(yù)測(cè),新冠疫情會(huì)在去年復(fù)活節(jié)前結(jié)束,?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

本周,一種全新的新冠病毒毒株掀起新一輪疫情,,超過(guò)了今年秋天科學(xué)家在美國(guó)追蹤的幾乎所有其他變體,。

根據(jù)美國(guó)疾病控制與預(yù)防中心(U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)的新數(shù)據(jù),上周的病例基因測(cè)序結(jié)果顯示,,感染這種被科學(xué)家命名為BF.7的變體(BA.5.2.1.7的縮寫(xiě))的病例占美國(guó)確診病例的1.7%,。目前爭(zhēng)奪頭把交椅的其他變體——BA.5,占美國(guó)確診病例的85%——包括BA.4.6,,占美國(guó)確診病例的10.3%,,以及BA.2.75,占美國(guó)確診病例的1.3%,。

科學(xué)家們開(kāi)始關(guān)注BF.7,,因?yàn)樗谌找嬖龆嗟膴W密克戎亞型變異毒株中傳播迅猛。幾個(gè)月來(lái),,科學(xué)家們一直在關(guān)注BA.2.75——在推特(Twitter)的空間上被稱為“半人馬座”——一種可能在今年秋天導(dǎo)致感染人數(shù)激增的變體,。但本周,BF.7超越了BA.2.75,。

可能比BA.5更容易傳播

BF.7在美國(guó)才剛剛開(kāi)始傳播,,但已經(jīng)肆虐其他國(guó)家。

基于所有@GISAID + @CovidGenomicsUK數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)全球SARS-CoV2譜系頻率擬合進(jìn)行了更新,,現(xiàn)在分別表示BF.7/BA.5.2.1.7,。BA.2.75感染病例仍然預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)在許多地方會(huì)超過(guò)BA.5.2.1.7感染病例,但BA.5.2.1.7與普通BA.5相比具有相似的優(yōu)勢(shì),,因此導(dǎo)致結(jié)果不同,。pic.twitter.com/ThB42hdBHO

——湯姆·溫斯勒斯(@TWenseleers),2022年8月21日

到目前為止,,在全球確診病例中,,比利時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)的BF.7感染病例占比最大,達(dá)到25%,。根據(jù)cov-lineages.org的數(shù)據(jù),,迄今為止,,丹麥、德國(guó)和法國(guó)的BF.7感染病例分別占全球確診病例的10%,。cov-lineages.org是新冠疫情數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),,由來(lái)自英國(guó)、蘇格蘭和澳大利亞等國(guó)大學(xué)的參與者每日更新,。

美國(guó)疾病控制與預(yù)防中心首次報(bào)告了這種新的亞型變異毒株,,它是BA.5病例的一部分,在今年夏天引起了廣泛關(guān)注,。但約翰斯·霍普金斯大學(xué)醫(yī)學(xué)系(Johns Hopkins’ Department of Medicine)的負(fù)責(zé)數(shù)據(jù)完整性和分析的醫(yī)學(xué)副主任斯圖爾特·雷博士對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,,美國(guó)疾病控制與預(yù)防中心最近在病例超過(guò)1%時(shí)將其單獨(dú)分類。

雷表示,,“BF.7感染病例在多個(gè)國(guó)家有著相同的增長(zhǎng)優(yōu)勢(shì),,這讓我們有理由認(rèn)為BF.7正在站穩(wěn)腳跟”,而且它可能比母株BA.5更具傳播性,。除非子毒株“另有優(yōu)勢(shì),,否則相對(duì)于其母株而言,,子毒株不會(huì)導(dǎo)致廣泛傳播”,。

他補(bǔ)充說(shuō),雖然我們對(duì)BF.7可能導(dǎo)致的疾病的嚴(yán)重程度一無(wú)所知,,但到目前為止,,所有奧密克戎亞型變異毒株的嚴(yán)重程度都很相似。

這種新的亞型變異毒株的刺突蛋白發(fā)生了變化——這一特點(diǎn)允許它進(jìn)入細(xì)胞——這在其他傳播迅猛的奧密克戎毒株中可見(jiàn),。它的核苷酸序列也發(fā)生了變化——有時(shí)被稱為生物體的藍(lán)圖——這可能導(dǎo)致它的行為與其他亞型變異毒株不同,。但雷說(shuō),如果有進(jìn)化分歧的話,,進(jìn)化分歧的程度目前還不得而知,。

根據(jù)雷的說(shuō)法,新冠病毒在不斷演化,,變得更具免疫逃避能力,,而奧密克戎正在呈指數(shù)級(jí)擴(kuò)散。他補(bǔ)充說(shuō),,如果今年秋天出現(xiàn)一個(gè)全新的變體,,他一點(diǎn)都不會(huì)感到驚訝。

“我們從變異毒株阿爾法到貝塔,,到伽馬到德?tīng)査?,再到奧密克戎,已經(jīng)有很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間了,?!崩渍f(shuō)。“我們可能會(huì)變得自滿,。這可能會(huì)讓人產(chǎn)生這樣的觀念——這一切都已經(jīng)過(guò)去了,。”

雷指出,,無(wú)論有沒(méi)有新的母株的變體出現(xiàn),,奧密克戎毒株擴(kuò)散都可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致今年秋冬防疫很艱難。

他有什么建議嗎,?繼續(xù)戴口罩,,并接種加強(qiáng)針。請(qǐng)記住,,新冠疫情還沒(méi)有結(jié)束,。

雷說(shuō):“有人預(yù)測(cè),新冠疫情會(huì)在去年復(fù)活節(jié)前結(jié)束,?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

A new COVID strain started to create waves among virus trackers this week, outpacing nearly all other variants of interest scientists are tracking in the U.S. this autumn.

The variant, which scientists have named BF.7—short for BA.5.2.1.7—comprised 1.7% of sequenced infections last week in the U.S., according to new data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Other variants jockeying for the top spot right now—held by BA.5, at 85%—include BA.4.6, which comprised 10.3% of infections, and BA.2.75, which comprised 1.3%.

Scientists are taking notice of BF.7 because it’s making headway in an increasingly crowded field of Omicron subvariants. For months they’ve watched BA.2.75—dubbed “Centaurus” by the Twitterverse—as a variant of interest with potential to surge this fall. But this week, BF.7 surpassed it.

Potentially more transmissible than BA.5

BF.7 is only beginning to grow off in the U.S., but it’s already taken off in other countries.

Updated fit of global SARS-CoV2 lineage frequencies based on all @GISAID + @CovidGenomicsUK data, now with BF.7 / BA.5.2.1.7 represented separately. BA.2.75 still predicted to overtake in many places, but BA.5.2.1.7 has similar advantage over plain BA.5, so different outcomes. pic.twitter.com/ThB42hdBHO

— Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers) August 21, 2022

So far Belgium has seen the lion’s share of BF.7 cases identified globally: 25%. Denmark, Germany, and France have each seen 10% of the world’s identified cases so far, according to cov-lineages.org, a COVID data repository updated daily by contributors from universities in England, Scotland, and Australia, among others.

The new subvariant was first reported by the CDC as part of cases of BA.5, which rose to prominence this summer. But the CDC recently broke it out into its own category when cases topped 1%, Dr. Stuart Ray, vice chair of medicine for data integrity and analytics at Johns Hopkins’ Department of Medicine, told Fortune.

“The same growth advantage in multiple countries makes it reasonable to think that BF.7 is gaining a foothold,” and that it’s potentially more transmissible than parent BA.5, Ray said. Children of variants “don’t grow relative to their parent unless they have an advantage.”

While nothing is known about the severity of disease BF.7 might cause, so far all Omicron subvariants have had similar severity, he added.

The new subvariant has a change in the spike protein—a feature that allows it to enter cells—seen in other Omicron strains making headway. It also has a change in the nucleotide sequence—sometimes referred to as the blueprint of an organism—that could cause it to behave differently than other subvariants. But the extent to which it will diverge, if it does at all, is currently unknown, Ray said.

COVID is continually evolving to become more immune evasive, according to Ray, and Omicron is spawning exponentially. He added he wouldn’t be surprised to see a new variant altogether this fall.

“It’s been awhile since we went from Alpha to Beta to Gamma to Delta, then to Omicron,” he said. “We may be complacent. This may be feeding into the notion that this is behind us.”

The tangle of Omicron spawns—with or without a new parent variant—could make for a rough fall and winter, Ray said.

His advice? Continue to mask and get your booster. And remember that the pandemic isn’t over.

“There are people who predicted COVID would be over by Easter of last year,” he said.

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