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Pro比基本款賣(mài)得火,,iPhone 14怎么了,?

Jacob Carpenter
2022-09-29

對(duì)蘋(píng)果公司來(lái)說(shuō),,數(shù)百萬(wàn)消費(fèi)者越來(lái)越青睞高價(jià)機(jī)型,,這顯然沒(méi)有任何壞處。

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自從iPhone 14發(fā)售以來(lái),數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,全球消費(fèi)者顯然更喜歡Pro版,。

自今年9月中旬蘋(píng)果公司(Apple)的iPhone 14上架以來(lái),多項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,消費(fèi)者更青睞售價(jià)較高的Pro(美國(guó)售價(jià)999美元)和Pro Max(美國(guó)售價(jià)1,099美元),,而不是公認(rèn)乏善可陳的基本款(美國(guó)售價(jià)899美元)。

Evercore ISI的分析師阿米特·達(dá)里亞納尼于上周在一份研究報(bào)告中指出,,估計(jì)有56%的iPhone 14買(mǎi)主都準(zhǔn)備入手Pro或者Pro Max,,較去年iPhone 13發(fā)布時(shí)大幅提升(41%)。

天風(fēng)國(guó)際證券公司(TF International Securities)的分析師,、蘋(píng)果研究專(zhuān)家郭明錤也認(rèn)為,,今年下半年,iPhone 14的出貨有60%到65%都將是Pro機(jī)型,。

《金融時(shí)報(bào)》(Financial Times)也在9月26日?qǐng)?bào)道,,根據(jù)Counterpoint Research公司的預(yù)測(cè),由于消費(fèi)者對(duì)Pro機(jī)型的青睞,,今年第四季度,,iPhone手機(jī)的平均售價(jià)預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到944美元,超過(guò)去年同期的873美元,。而iPhone 13和iPhone 14的各機(jī)型在發(fā)布時(shí)的售價(jià)幾乎沒(méi)有什么差別,。

只要iPhone手機(jī)的銷(xiāo)量能夠保持穩(wěn)定,消費(fèi)者青睞更高價(jià)的Pro,,對(duì)蘋(píng)果公司來(lái)說(shuō)顯然是一件好事,。多位分析師都預(yù)測(cè)稱(chēng),今年下半年iPhone手機(jī)的出貨量將不亞于去年同期,,甚至還有可能超過(guò)去年,。

不過(guò),這對(duì)蘋(píng)果公司有何長(zhǎng)期影響,,就值得研究一下了,。

如果從傳統(tǒng)觀點(diǎn)看,Pro版本的走紅,說(shuō)明蘋(píng)果發(fā)現(xiàn)iPhone的價(jià)格彈性要超過(guò)之前的預(yù)期,。

盡管遭遇了幾十年一遇的高通脹和經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷,,但事實(shí)表明,只要iPhone買(mǎi)家覺(jué)得這筆錢(qián)花的值,,他們還是愿意繼續(xù)買(mǎi)蘋(píng)果手機(jī)的,。iPhone 14 Pro比基本款多了幾項(xiàng)功能,比如所謂的“靈動(dòng)島”和常亮屏,,攝像頭組件也要更加強(qiáng)大,。而基本款相比去年的iPhone 13只作了小幅升級(jí)。

還有一些因素可能也促進(jìn)了Pro版的需求,,所以我們暫時(shí)還難以從iPhone 14 Pro目前的成功中獲取什么有用的經(jīng)驗(yàn),。

首先,美國(guó)三大運(yùn)營(yíng)商美國(guó)電話電報(bào)公司(AT&T),、威瑞森(Verizon)和T-Mobile今年都特別積極地為iPhone 14提供了以舊換新優(yōu)惠,,使消費(fèi)者花最少的錢(qián)就可以獲得最新款的iPhone 14 Pro或Pro Max。有些情況下,,消費(fèi)者甚至能夠免費(fèi)領(lǐng)取到最新款的頂配iPhone,,前提是他們?cè)敢庖耘f換新,且購(gòu)買(mǎi)特定套餐,。

運(yùn)營(yíng)商之所以特別熱衷于以舊換新,,就是希望借此把消費(fèi)者綁定在自家最新的5G網(wǎng)絡(luò)上,畢竟它們?yōu)榱私?G網(wǎng)絡(luò)可是花了不少錢(qián),。

據(jù)《投資者商業(yè)日?qǐng)?bào)》(Investor 's Business Daily)報(bào)道,,達(dá)里亞納尼在上周的一份報(bào)告中指出:“運(yùn)營(yíng)商的大力推廣對(duì)蘋(píng)果是一個(gè)重大利好,這些被忽略的舉措起到了顯著的杠桿作用,,它們降低了對(duì)于消費(fèi)者的價(jià)格,,并且給iPhone的換機(jī)周期以強(qiáng)力的支持?!?/p>

另一方面,,很多消費(fèi)者也恰好迎來(lái)了換機(jī)周期,這也一定程度上有益于iPhone 14的銷(xiāo)量,。

據(jù)韋德布什證券(Wedbush Securities)的分析師丹·艾夫斯估計(jì),,在10億部消費(fèi)者正在使用的iPhone中,大約2.4億部已經(jīng)至少使用了三年半,,因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在消費(fèi)者的換機(jī)周期變得更長(zhǎng)了,。但由于無(wú)線運(yùn)營(yíng)商現(xiàn)在愿意提供大幅折扣,很多堅(jiān)持使用舊手機(jī)的消費(fèi)者如今也會(huì)把iPhone 14當(dāng)作一個(gè)難得的換機(jī)機(jī)會(huì),。

即便iPhone 14 Pro的成功表明人們確實(shí)就是喜歡1,000美元以上的高檔手機(jī),,那么蘋(píng)果可以繼續(xù)摘到桃子的時(shí)間也將非常有限,。據(jù)彭博社(Bloomberg)今年3月報(bào)道,蘋(píng)果正在開(kāi)發(fā)一項(xiàng)硬件訂閱服務(wù),,屆時(shí)iPhone手機(jī)將更像是一種租賃設(shè)備,,而不是一款需要購(gòu)買(mǎi)的產(chǎn)品。到時(shí)候,,新款的iPhone手機(jī)有可能會(huì)與Apple Music,、Apple Fitness+和iCloud+等訂閱服務(wù)捆綁銷(xiāo)售。

而對(duì)蘋(píng)果公司來(lái)說(shuō),,數(shù)百萬(wàn)消費(fèi)者越來(lái)越青睞高價(jià)機(jī)型,,這顯然沒(méi)有任何壞處。只是現(xiàn)在就斷言iPhone 14 Pro的走紅是曇花一現(xiàn),,還是環(huán)境的產(chǎn)物,,抑或?qū)⒊蔀橐环N趨勢(shì),,還為時(shí)過(guò)早,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:樸成奎

自從iPhone 14發(fā)售以來(lái),數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,全球消費(fèi)者顯然更喜歡Pro版,。

自今年9月中旬蘋(píng)果公司(Apple)的iPhone 14上架以來(lái),多項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,消費(fèi)者更青睞售價(jià)較高的Pro(美國(guó)售價(jià)999美元)和Pro Max(美國(guó)售價(jià)1,099美元),,而不是公認(rèn)乏善可陳的基本款(美國(guó)售價(jià)899美元)。

Evercore ISI的分析師阿米特·達(dá)里亞納尼于上周在一份研究報(bào)告中指出,,估計(jì)有56%的iPhone 14買(mǎi)主都準(zhǔn)備入手Pro或者Pro Max,,較去年iPhone 13發(fā)布時(shí)大幅提升(41%)。

天風(fēng)國(guó)際證券公司(TF International Securities)的分析師,、蘋(píng)果研究專(zhuān)家郭明錤也認(rèn)為,,今年下半年,iPhone 14的出貨有60%到65%都將是Pro機(jī)型,。

《金融時(shí)報(bào)》(Financial Times)也在9月26日?qǐng)?bào)道,,根據(jù)Counterpoint Research公司的預(yù)測(cè),由于消費(fèi)者對(duì)Pro機(jī)型的青睞,,今年第四季度,,iPhone手機(jī)的平均售價(jià)預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到944美元,超過(guò)去年同期的873美元,。而iPhone 13和iPhone 14的各機(jī)型在發(fā)布時(shí)的售價(jià)幾乎沒(méi)有什么差別,。

只要iPhone手機(jī)的銷(xiāo)量能夠保持穩(wěn)定,消費(fèi)者青睞更高價(jià)的Pro,,對(duì)蘋(píng)果公司來(lái)說(shuō)顯然是一件好事,。多位分析師都預(yù)測(cè)稱(chēng),今年下半年iPhone手機(jī)的出貨量將不亞于去年同期,甚至還有可能超過(guò)去年,。

不過(guò),,這對(duì)蘋(píng)果公司有何長(zhǎng)期影響,就值得研究一下了,。

如果從傳統(tǒng)觀點(diǎn)看,,Pro版本的走紅,說(shuō)明蘋(píng)果發(fā)現(xiàn)iPhone的價(jià)格彈性要超過(guò)之前的預(yù)期,。

盡管遭遇了幾十年一遇的高通脹和經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷,,但事實(shí)表明,只要iPhone買(mǎi)家覺(jué)得這筆錢(qián)花的值,,他們還是愿意繼續(xù)買(mǎi)蘋(píng)果手機(jī)的,。iPhone 14 Pro比基本款多了幾項(xiàng)功能,比如所謂的“靈動(dòng)島”和常亮屏,,攝像頭組件也要更加強(qiáng)大,。而基本款相比去年的iPhone 13只作了小幅升級(jí)。

還有一些因素可能也促進(jìn)了Pro版的需求,,所以我們暫時(shí)還難以從iPhone 14 Pro目前的成功中獲取什么有用的經(jīng)驗(yàn),。

首先,美國(guó)三大運(yùn)營(yíng)商美國(guó)電話電報(bào)公司(AT&T),、威瑞森(Verizon)和T-Mobile今年都特別積極地為iPhone 14提供了以舊換新優(yōu)惠,,使消費(fèi)者花最少的錢(qián)就可以獲得最新款的iPhone 14 Pro或Pro Max。有些情況下,,消費(fèi)者甚至能夠免費(fèi)領(lǐng)取到最新款的頂配iPhone,,前提是他們?cè)敢庖耘f換新,且購(gòu)買(mǎi)特定套餐,。

運(yùn)營(yíng)商之所以特別熱衷于以舊換新,,就是希望借此把消費(fèi)者綁定在自家最新的5G網(wǎng)絡(luò)上,畢竟它們?yōu)榱私?G網(wǎng)絡(luò)可是花了不少錢(qián),。

據(jù)《投資者商業(yè)日?qǐng)?bào)》(Investor 's Business Daily)報(bào)道,,達(dá)里亞納尼在上周的一份報(bào)告中指出:“運(yùn)營(yíng)商的大力推廣對(duì)蘋(píng)果是一個(gè)重大利好,這些被忽略的舉措起到了顯著的杠桿作用,,它們降低了對(duì)于消費(fèi)者的價(jià)格,,并且給iPhone的換機(jī)周期以強(qiáng)力的支持?!?/p>

另一方面,,很多消費(fèi)者也恰好迎來(lái)了換機(jī)周期,這也一定程度上有益于iPhone 14的銷(xiāo)量,。

據(jù)韋德布什證券(Wedbush Securities)的分析師丹·艾夫斯估計(jì),,在10億部消費(fèi)者正在使用的iPhone中,,大約2.4億部已經(jīng)至少使用了三年半,因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在消費(fèi)者的換機(jī)周期變得更長(zhǎng)了,。但由于無(wú)線運(yùn)營(yíng)商現(xiàn)在愿意提供大幅折扣,,很多堅(jiān)持使用舊手機(jī)的消費(fèi)者如今也會(huì)把iPhone 14當(dāng)作一個(gè)難得的換機(jī)機(jī)會(huì)。

即便iPhone 14 Pro的成功表明人們確實(shí)就是喜歡1,000美元以上的高檔手機(jī),,那么蘋(píng)果可以繼續(xù)摘到桃子的時(shí)間也將非常有限,。據(jù)彭博社(Bloomberg)今年3月報(bào)道,蘋(píng)果正在開(kāi)發(fā)一項(xiàng)硬件訂閱服務(wù),,屆時(shí)iPhone手機(jī)將更像是一種租賃設(shè)備,,而不是一款需要購(gòu)買(mǎi)的產(chǎn)品。到時(shí)候,,新款的iPhone手機(jī)有可能會(huì)與Apple Music,、Apple Fitness+和iCloud+等訂閱服務(wù)捆綁銷(xiāo)售。

而對(duì)蘋(píng)果公司來(lái)說(shuō),,數(shù)百萬(wàn)消費(fèi)者越來(lái)越青睞高價(jià)機(jī)型,,這顯然沒(méi)有任何壞處。只是現(xiàn)在就斷言iPhone 14 Pro的走紅是曇花一現(xiàn),,還是環(huán)境的產(chǎn)物,,抑或?qū)⒊蔀橐环N趨勢(shì),,還為時(shí)過(guò)早,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:樸成奎

With regard to the latest line of iPhones, it’s clear that global consumers are pro-Pro.

As the Apple iPhone 14 flies off the proverbial shelves following its mid-September release, multiple data points show that buyers are gravitating toward the more-expensive Pro ($999 in the U.S.) and Pro Max ($1,099) versions of the smartphone, shunning a base model ($899) that’s been widely panned as uninspiring.

In a research note last week, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani estimated that about 56% of iPhone 14 buyers planned to purchase a Pro or Pro Max model, up from 41% during last year’s rollout of the iPhone 13.

The projection mirrored one from TF International Securities analyst and Apple guru Ming-Chi Kuo, who predicted that iPhone 14 Pro models will account for 60-65% of the line’s shipments in the second half of 2022.

The Financial Times also reported on September 26 that Counterpoint Research forecasts the average selling price of an iPhone will hit $944 in the fourth quarter of 2022, up from $873 during the same period last year, because of customers opting for the Pro model. Prices for the iPhone 13 and 14 series were essentially unchanged at the time of their respective releases.

The preference for the higher-priced Pro is undoubtedly a win for Apple, provided that unit sales remain consistent. Multiple analysts expect Apple will move a similar number of new iPhones in the latter half of 2022 when compared to the prior year—and might even exceed that total.

What exactly that means long-term for Apple, however, is a bit convoluted.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that Apple is discovering the iPhone’s price elasticity is even better than originally thought.

Despite generationally high inflation and a general economic malaise, iPhone buyers are showing they’re willing to pony up if they see better value in an Apple smartphone. The iPhone 14 Pro contains several added features that aren’t in the base model, including the Dynamic Island module, an always-on screen, and a better camera. The base model, meanwhile, received minimal upgrades over last year’s iteration.

But there are other confounding factors that might be contributing to demand for the Pro version, making it difficult to draw lessons from its apparent success.

AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile have been particularly aggressive this year in offering trade-in deals for the iPhone 14, allowing customers to get an iPhone 14 Pro or Pro Max for minimal money. In some cases, customers can get the top-of-the-line phones for free, provided they have the right trade-in and sign up for specific wireless plans.

The competitive trade-in offerings are designed to lock customers into each wireless provider’s new 5G network, which cost those companies massive sums of money to set up.

“The aggregate promotions are a significant positive for Apple,” Daryanani said in a client note last week, according to Investor’s Business Daily. “These actions act as an underappreciated lever that could ease price points for consumers and support a strong iPhone cycle.”

Apple also might be hitting customers at just the right time in their smartphone renewal cycle, providing a slightly artificial boost to the iPhone 14 line.

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives estimates that about 240 million out of the 1 billion iPhones in circulation are at least 3 ? years old, as customers hang on to their devices longer. With wireless carriers offering deep discounts on iPhones, consumers clinging to their aging hardware might be using the iPhone 14 as an opportunity to upgrade on the cheap.

Even if the iPhone 14 Pro’s success is truly rooted in a willingness to splurge on $1,000 phones, Apple’s runway for building on this triumph could be short. As Bloomberg reported in March, Apple is working on a hardware subscription service that would treat iPhones more like a leased device, rather than a purchased product. The approach likely would involve Apple bundling new iPhones with some of subscription services, such as Apple Music, Apple Fitness+, and iCloud+.

For Apple, there’s no real downside to millions of customers increasingly opting for a higher-priced product. It’s just too early to conclude whether the iPhone 14 Pro’s prosperity is a phenomenon, a product of circumstances, or a prevailing trend.

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