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“貨幣醫(yī)生”漢克:在控制通脹方面,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)交出了不及格的答卷

Shawn tully
2022-10-15

史蒂夫·漢克雖然他在全球多國(guó)抑制通脹的工作中立下了赫赫功勛,,但在2022年的美國(guó)主流經(jīng)濟(jì)圈卻幾乎完全聽(tīng)不到他的聲音。

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2013年4月30日,,約翰·霍普金斯大學(xué)應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授史蒂夫·漢克在彭博鏈接經(jīng)濟(jì)峰會(huì)上發(fā)言,。彭博華盛頓峰會(huì)群英薈萃,一眾政府高官,、知名企業(yè)首席執(zhí)行官,、州長(zhǎng)、議員和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家齊聚一堂,,共同評(píng)估經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況,探討如何度過(guò)“財(cái)政懸崖”危機(jī),。圖片來(lái)源:ANDREW HARRER—BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

如果你覺(jué)得美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正處于動(dòng)蕩之中,,不妨聽(tīng)史蒂夫·漢克(Steve Hanke)和你聊聊1999年塞爾維亞的故事。

漢克前往黑山時(shí),,黑山與塞爾維亞還同屬南聯(lián)盟的加盟國(guó),。彼時(shí),南聯(lián)盟的最高統(tǒng)治者是獨(dú)裁者斯洛博丹·米洛舍維奇(Slobodan Milosevic),。在擔(dān)任黑山內(nèi)閣級(jí)國(guó)家顧問(wèn)后,,漢克建議該國(guó)總統(tǒng)米洛·久卡諾維奇(Milo Djukanovic)用德國(guó)馬克取代南斯拉夫第納爾。久卡諾維奇采納了漢克的建議,,經(jīng)此改革,,黑山走上了獨(dú)立之路。第納爾幾乎完全退出流通,,米洛舍維奇大為光火,。

南斯拉夫信息部長(zhǎng)對(duì)漢克發(fā)起了瘋狂攻擊,先是指控漢克領(lǐng)導(dǎo)走私團(tuán)伙向塞爾維亞走私大量假第納爾,導(dǎo)致該國(guó)假幣泛濫,,后又指控漢克是法國(guó)特工,,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)著代號(hào)為“蜘蛛”的殺手小組,意圖暗殺米洛舍維奇,。目前尚不清楚米洛舍維奇當(dāng)時(shí)是想用這種荒誕的“恐怖喜劇”破壞黑山的貨幣改革,,還是真的打算派遣特工干掉漢克。為保護(hù)這位大師,,黑山共和國(guó)總統(tǒng)特意為其更換了安保人員,。“這可不是鬧著玩的,,”漢克回憶道,,“當(dāng)時(shí)米洛舍維奇非常生氣,派出大量坦克陳兵黑山邊境,,一場(chǎng)沖突迫在眉睫”,。通過(guò)改用幣值超級(jí)穩(wěn)定的德國(guó)馬克,黑山擺脫了長(zhǎng)期過(guò)度通脹的南斯拉夫第納爾,。如今,,黑山以歐元作為法定貨幣,確保了該國(guó)公民的收入能夠保持穩(wěn)定的購(gòu)買(mǎi)力,。

也正是這樣的功績(jī)讓現(xiàn)為約翰·霍普金斯大學(xué)(Johns Hopkins University)應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授的漢克贏得了“貨幣醫(yī)生”的綽號(hào),。然而奇怪的是,雖然他在全球多國(guó)抑制通脹的工作中立下了赫赫功勛,,但在2022年的美國(guó)主流經(jīng)濟(jì)圈卻幾乎完全聽(tīng)不到他的聲音,。

簡(jiǎn)而言之,漢克就是一個(gè)貨幣主義者,。

貨幣主義認(rèn)為,,貨幣供應(yīng)的飆升最終會(huì)引發(fā)通脹飆升。漢克經(jīng)常引用米爾頓·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)的口頭禪(這位傳奇的貨幣主義者將該理論由4個(gè)符號(hào)構(gòu)成的公式MV = PQ印在了自己紅色凱迪拉克的加州車牌上):“通貨膨脹無(wú)論何時(shí)何地都只是一種貨幣現(xiàn)象,,只有在貨幣增發(fā)速度大于產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)速度時(shí)才會(huì)出現(xiàn),。”

從2020年初到今年3月左右,,銀行一直在快速放貸,,從抵押貸款到信用卡,可以說(shuō)是雨露均沾,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表擴(kuò)張了超過(guò)4萬(wàn)億美元,,在大肆購(gòu)買(mǎi)債券的同時(shí),也流入了消費(fèi)者的錢(qián)包,,結(jié)果就是發(fā)出的美元太多,,而可購(gòu)買(mǎi)的商品又太少,。在過(guò)去兩年多的時(shí)間里,美國(guó)的貨幣供應(yīng)量增加了6.3萬(wàn)億美元,,增幅超過(guò)40%,,年化增幅約為16%。正是廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量(M2)的井噴導(dǎo)致美國(guó)出現(xiàn)了超過(guò)8%的通貨膨脹,。據(jù)漢克估計(jì),,目前仍有3萬(wàn)億的超發(fā)美元儲(chǔ)存在滿滿當(dāng)當(dāng)?shù)摹柏泿判钏亍敝校瑫r(shí)刻都有溢出風(fēng)險(xiǎn),,而外溢貨幣將以通脹的形式進(jìn)入民眾生活,,繼續(xù)推高物價(jià)水平,這種情況將會(huì)延續(xù)到2024年,。

如今,,貨幣主義的貨幣數(shù)量理論至少可以說(shuō)已是風(fēng)光不再。在學(xué)術(shù)界,,像漢克一樣支持該理論的人寥寥無(wú)幾,。在通脹快速走高的當(dāng)下,白宮和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)均聲稱通脹問(wèn)題與貨幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)無(wú)關(guān),,也未曾提及或許妥善管理M2(貨幣供應(yīng)量的重要指標(biāo))正是解決該問(wèn)題的方法所在,。漢克說(shuō),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)抑制通脹的努力一再失敗,,說(shuō)明該機(jī)構(gòu)“一直在各種錯(cuò)誤的方向?qū)ふ彝洃?yīng)對(duì)之策”,。而通過(guò)研究漢克一路走來(lái)的曲折歷程(出身愛(ài)荷華州農(nóng)村,一步步走向世界,,幫助各國(guó)政府管理經(jīng)濟(jì)事務(wù)),,我們不僅可以知道(經(jīng)濟(jì))為什么會(huì)出現(xiàn)大問(wèn)題,還能知道政府應(yīng)該采取哪些措施來(lái)讓經(jīng)濟(jì)重返正軌,。

從務(wù)農(nóng)走向交易

漢克罕見(jiàn)地融合了冷靜學(xué)者和動(dòng)作英雄的特質(zhì),。他小時(shí)候生活中在愛(ài)荷華州農(nóng)村40英畝(約合0.16平方千米)的林地。漢克青少年時(shí)期的工作是種植玉米大豆,、捆干草、清潔母豬生小豬的“產(chǎn)房”,、建造糧倉(cāng)以及在印刷店熔鑄鉛字,。后來(lái)他還在新建公路上鋪設(shè)瀝青。漢克說(shuō),,“我做過(guò)的工作多得讓人難以想象,,如果按照現(xiàn)在的政府規(guī)定,有些工作可能是違法的,,因?yàn)楫?dāng)時(shí)我還未成年,?!?/p>

漢克第一次感受到市場(chǎng)的力量是在祖父的雞蛋店?!白娓冈趷?ài)荷華州有個(gè)大的雞蛋加工廠,。人們將雞蛋收集、裝箱,、分級(jí)并冷藏,,最后運(yùn)到紐約或波士頓,”漢克回憶道,?!盀榱藢?duì)沖價(jià)格波動(dòng),祖父用‘遠(yuǎn)期合約’在芝加哥商品交易所出售雞蛋,?!笔袌?chǎng)能為祖父提供保護(hù),還能用巨額利潤(rùn)吸引交易另一方投資者承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),,讓漢克十分著迷,。14歲時(shí)他開(kāi)設(shè)了第一個(gè)大豆投機(jī)交易賬戶,此后一直在交易,。

17歲的漢克就讀于科羅拉多大學(xué)(University of Colorado),,1964年畢業(yè),一年后他繼續(xù)在本校讀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士,。攻讀博士學(xué)位期間,,漢克在如今被Mining.com評(píng)為礦業(yè)領(lǐng)域全球頂尖學(xué)術(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)的名校科羅拉多礦業(yè)學(xué)院(Colorado School of Mines)擔(dān)任全職教授,。當(dāng)時(shí),,該校開(kāi)設(shè)了采礦、冶金,、石油和地質(zhì)工程等學(xué)位課程,,但漢克只教授基礎(chǔ)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)。他很快增開(kāi)了石油和礦產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)新課程,,過(guò)程中在相關(guān)學(xué)科獲得了另一個(gè)高級(jí)同等學(xué)位,。“我認(rèn)識(shí)了全世界著名的石油和礦業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,,”他說(shuō),。他對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)運(yùn)作十分沉迷,所以多年后才會(huì)對(duì)賭歐佩克,。

雖然科羅拉多大學(xué)的自由市場(chǎng)團(tuán)隊(duì)規(guī)模相當(dāng)小,,但漢克最喜歡的教授之一經(jīng)常得意地穿著印有標(biāo)語(yǔ)的T恤,上面寫(xiě)著“亞當(dāng)·斯密是對(duì)的——要傳承,?!睗h克最癡迷兩種思想,,一是耶魯大學(xué)(Yale University)的歐文·費(fèi)希爾(Irving Fisher)和漢克導(dǎo)師米爾頓·弗里德曼倡導(dǎo)的貨幣主義,二是側(cè)重于研究市場(chǎng),,倡導(dǎo)自由市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的奧地利經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)派,。他非常贊賞奧地利學(xué)派的務(wù)實(shí)態(tài)度。漢克說(shuō):“他們研究宏觀和微觀經(jīng)濟(jì),,也研究國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì),,涉及各個(gè)方向。其理論提供了發(fā)現(xiàn)商品和其他市場(chǎng)錯(cuò)誤定價(jià)的工具,。并不是空泛得像在另一個(gè)星球上的理論,。”

在漢克來(lái)說(shuō),,貨幣主義和奧地利學(xué)派結(jié)合的魅力在于發(fā)現(xiàn)泡沫方面的遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn),。“貨幣主義和奧地利學(xué)派對(duì)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的看法一致,,”漢克說(shuō),。“向系統(tǒng)注入大量資金,,一到九個(gè)月后大宗商品,、股票、房屋或其他資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格就會(huì)大幅上漲,?!边@一解釋非常合理,說(shuō)明資金過(guò)多會(huì)將資產(chǎn)價(jià)格推到非理性的高度,,遠(yuǎn)高于基本價(jià)值之后氣球一定會(huì)爆炸,。

漢克當(dāng)學(xué)生時(shí),在弗吉尼亞大學(xué)(University of Virginia)曾參加過(guò)沃倫·納特(Warren Nutter)教授的一系列講座,,從而經(jīng)歷了另一關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻,。“納特的深入研究證明,,蘇聯(lián)發(fā)布的看似龐大的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)純屬虛構(gòu),,與約翰·肯尼斯·加爾布雷斯(John Kenneth Galbraith)等親大政府經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說(shuō)的正好相反,”漢克回憶道,。他說(shuō)自己篤信貨幣主義和奧地利學(xué)派都植根于對(duì)古典自由主義的信仰,,這是他和身為巴黎人的妻子莉莉安多年來(lái)的指導(dǎo)思想?!盎谌笾е彼赋??!白杂墒袌?chǎng),、小政府和財(cái)產(chǎn)私有。我選擇了與三大支柱適應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué),?!?/p>

1985年,漢克運(yùn)用奧地利經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)派思想在能源市場(chǎng)上收獲巨大,。當(dāng)時(shí)他與全世界最偉大的商品和貨幣交易員之一,,也是總部位于多倫多的對(duì)沖基金弗里德伯格商業(yè)集團(tuán)(Friedberg Mercantile Group)創(chuàng)始人阿爾伯特·弗里德伯格(Albert Friedbeg)共進(jìn)午餐后,發(fā)現(xiàn)了這一機(jī)會(huì),。目前漢克還擔(dān)任該集團(tuán)名譽(yù)董事長(zhǎng),。弗里德伯格也是奧地利學(xué)派信徒。那次偶然見(jiàn)面后不久,,漢克成為了弗里德伯格集團(tuán)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,。“弗里德伯格也認(rèn)同奧地利學(xué)派理論,,有一種能感受市場(chǎng)溫度,,發(fā)現(xiàn)錯(cuò)誤定價(jià)帶來(lái)機(jī)會(huì)的神奇能力?!睗h克指出,。

漢克兼職擔(dān)任對(duì)沖基金弗里德伯格首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家期間,利用奧地利經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)派理論預(yù)測(cè)出歐佩克即將崩潰,。1985年11月17日,,漢克是第一個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)內(nèi)爆的人之一,他在弗里德伯格的《商品與貨幣評(píng)論》中寫(xiě)道:“我們的分析結(jié)果強(qiáng)烈支持繼續(xù)看空原油,,”漢克如何分析,?簡(jiǎn)單來(lái)說(shuō),當(dāng)時(shí)石油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)高于期貨價(jià)格,。用行話來(lái)說(shuō)就是,,市場(chǎng)處于“現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)”狀態(tài),說(shuō)明庫(kù)存和產(chǎn)能嚴(yán)重短缺將使價(jià)格堅(jiān)挺,。

但漢克發(fā)現(xiàn)了其中矛盾所在,。表面“短缺”是歐佩克故意策劃的結(jié)果。事實(shí)上,,沙特阿拉伯產(chǎn)能大量過(guò)剩,。漢克認(rèn)為,沙特最終將利用過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能懲罰在配額上作弊的歐佩克成員國(guó)以及非歐佩克生產(chǎn)國(guó),。一旦發(fā)生,,油價(jià)將跌至每桶10美元以下。

漢克和弗里德伯格在紐約和倫敦市場(chǎng)努力做空,,同時(shí)還做空沙特里亞爾和科威特第納爾,。從1985年11月到1986年7月,,歐佩克減產(chǎn)聯(lián)盟瓦解,油價(jià)從每桶30美元左右降至每桶9.25美元,。弗里德伯格的賭注獲得了回報(bào),,客戶也賺得盆滿缽滿。

1992年,,漢克再次為弗里德伯格下了重注,,這次是外匯市場(chǎng)。歐洲貨幣體系將12個(gè)成員國(guó)的貨幣與德國(guó)馬克“掛鉤”,,在狹窄的匯率范圍內(nèi)波動(dòng),。漢克認(rèn)為,盡管當(dāng)時(shí)有所改善,,但法國(guó)與德國(guó)相比通常結(jié)構(gòu)剛性更大,、勞動(dòng)力成本更貴且通脹更高,需要便宜得多的貨幣挑戰(zhàn)鄰國(guó),。他認(rèn)為,,歐洲貨幣體系人為支持導(dǎo)致法郎大幅高估。事實(shí)證明,,將法郎保持在規(guī)定匯率范圍內(nèi),,對(duì)法國(guó)和德國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)代價(jià)極高。漢克認(rèn)為,,最終市場(chǎng)力量會(huì)打擊其價(jià)值,。

因此,他針對(duì)法郎建立了巨額風(fēng)險(xiǎn)頭寸,,推動(dòng)市場(chǎng)力量發(fā)展,。1992年7月,弗里德伯格和其他空頭的拋售壓力導(dǎo)致法國(guó)貨幣暴跌,。8月匯率區(qū)間擴(kuò)大,,大幅降低了法郎兌德國(guó)馬克的下限,漢克和弗里德伯格再下一城,?!拔覀兊念^寸協(xié)助了繞后奇襲法郎堡壘,”漢克說(shuō),。

如今他在賭什么,?看多電動(dòng)汽車電池關(guān)鍵成分鋰。過(guò)去一年里,,電池級(jí)鋰價(jià)格增加了276%,。

行走全球的貨幣醫(yī)生

1981年和1982年,漢克擔(dān)任里根總統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家。任職期間,,他制定了一項(xiàng)宏大的計(jì)劃,,將聯(lián)邦土地銷售給私人所有者,并得到了里根的支持,。里根在1982年2月提交的預(yù)算咨文中寫(xiě)道:“在未來(lái)三年,我們將通過(guò)擺脫這些不必要的地產(chǎn),,節(jié)省90億美元的資金,,同時(shí)充分保護(hù)和維護(hù)我們的國(guó)家公園、森林,、荒野和景區(qū),。”最終,,該計(jì)劃未能得到實(shí)施,,漢克感嘆道,這一藍(lán)圖是“政府執(zhí)行失敗的經(jīng)典案例”,。然而,,他對(duì)提議杜撰“私有化”(privatize)這個(gè)新詞感到十分自豪,這是其來(lái)自于巴黎的妻子莉莉安建議他使用的法語(yǔ)詞,。他寫(xiě)道:“這個(gè)術(shù)語(yǔ)在我使用之前還未被收錄于《韋氏詞典》,!”因此,在漢克看來(lái),,里根的私有化計(jì)劃唯一有成效的地方在于,,它促使?jié)h克勸說(shuō)韋氏字典收錄這一詞語(yǔ)。最終,,“privatize”一詞在1983年被收錄至《韋氏詞典》第九版,。

然而在公眾面前,漢克的首要職責(zé)是擔(dān)任全球貨幣醫(yī)生,。他的專長(zhǎng)是:為遭遇超級(jí)通脹的國(guó)家提供如何建立穩(wěn)健貨幣體制的建議,。他的解決方案是:建立貨幣局制度,從而發(fā)行能夠以固定匯率與錨定貨幣進(jìn)行交易的本土貨幣,,例如美元或德國(guó)馬克,;或者美元化,也就是用美元取代本土貨幣,。

早期的機(jī)會(huì)出現(xiàn)在1991年,。漢克回憶說(shuō):“當(dāng)時(shí),阿根廷實(shí)施了‘可兌換制度’(Convertibility system),。盡管這并非傳統(tǒng)的貨幣局制度,,但仍足夠強(qiáng)大,直接粉碎了阿根廷驚人的三位數(shù)通脹率?!苯酉聛?lái)是1992年的愛(ài)沙尼亞,,漢克通過(guò)建立貨幣局制度,用新發(fā)行的愛(ài)沙尼亞克魯恩取代了超高通脹俄羅斯盧布,。此舉為愛(ài)沙尼亞創(chuàng)建自己的貨幣,、確保物價(jià)的穩(wěn)定奠定了基礎(chǔ)。1994年,,漢克在立陶宛擔(dān)任內(nèi)閣級(jí)別職務(wù),,設(shè)計(jì)和實(shí)施了一個(gè)貨幣局制度,成功地為這個(gè)愛(ài)沙尼亞的鄰居建立了財(cái)政紀(jì)律,。1997年,,漢克通過(guò)建立貨幣局制度,阻止了保加利亞肆虐的超級(jí)通脹和銀行危機(jī),。同樣,,在1997年,在漢克的幫助下,,波西尼亞和黑塞哥維那實(shí)施了貨幣局制度,,這個(gè)國(guó)家剛剛結(jié)束內(nèi)戰(zhàn),空氣中依然彌漫著火藥的味道,。

這位貨幣醫(yī)生提供了不少令人印象深刻的上門(mén)服務(wù),。漢克稱,阿爾巴尼亞的改革便是一次離奇的經(jīng)歷,。他回憶說(shuō):“整個(gè)國(guó)家只有幾輛車,。大多數(shù)都是奔馳,而且沒(méi)有牌照,。然而,,在阿爾巴尼亞黑手黨成員開(kāi)始從歐洲各國(guó)偷車之后,這一現(xiàn)象很快發(fā)生了變化,?!必?fù)責(zé)改革的是阿爾巴尼亞的副總理,漢克說(shuō):“他的奇思妙想不少,,但作為這個(gè)國(guó)家的管理者來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)災(zāi)難,。”在辦公室接見(jiàn)漢克時(shí),,這位副總理站在阿爾巴尼亞裔人特蕾莎修女畫(huà)像前,,腰里還別著一把左輪手槍?!傲顨W洲官員感到震驚的是,,這位副總理與其他領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者隨后佩槍出現(xiàn)在了布魯塞爾機(jī)場(chǎng),!”漢克感嘆道。這些阿爾巴尼亞人對(duì)漢克向其引薦高傲的巴爾干和歐洲人表示感激,,并授予其旗幟騎士勛章,,不過(guò),他們后來(lái)并沒(méi)有采用貨幣局制度,。

1994年,,在哈薩克斯坦獨(dú)立之后,總統(tǒng)努爾蘇丹·納扎爾巴耶夫(Nursultan Nazarbayev)邀請(qǐng)漢克前往阿拉木圖,,并任命其擔(dān)任顧問(wèn),。他的職責(zé)是建立貨幣局制度,穩(wěn)定哈薩克斯坦騰格,。漢克稱,這一舉措以失敗告終,,因?yàn)椤澳箍撇⒉幌胱岒v格穩(wěn)定,。當(dāng)時(shí),俄國(guó)人更想要的是一個(gè)羸弱,、不穩(wěn)定的騰格,,以及根基并不怎么扎實(shí)的鄰居?!?/p>

四年后,,漢克開(kāi)啟了他最具爭(zhēng)議的貨幣冒險(xiǎn)。印尼鐵腕人物蘇哈托(Suharto)任命漢克擔(dān)任“特別顧問(wèn)”,,為印尼盧比的穩(wěn)定出謀劃策,。蘇哈托聽(tīng)從了貨幣基金組織(IMF)的建議,讓貨幣在公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)采用“浮動(dòng)匯率”,,之后印尼盧比大幅貶值,。漢克連續(xù)數(shù)晚在蘇哈托私人居所的書(shū)房與其會(huì)面,并建議“建立傳統(tǒng)的貨幣局制度,,讓印尼盧比錨定美元,,并按照固定匯率與之兌換?!碧K哈托同意了這個(gè)建議,。當(dāng)新聞?dòng)诘诙毂鰰r(shí),印尼盧比對(duì)美元匯率增長(zhǎng)了28%,。蘇哈托對(duì)漢克說(shuō),,這一革命性的理念讓漢克成為了總統(tǒng)政敵的“眼中釘”,蘇哈托分配了一部分自己的安保特遣隊(duì)來(lái)保護(hù)這位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家及其夫人,。

然而,,克林頓政府和國(guó)際貨幣基金組織十分痛恨這種做法,,因?yàn)榉€(wěn)定的印尼盧比可能會(huì)有助于蘇哈托掌權(quán),但他們希望蘇哈托下臺(tái),。漢克稱,,克林頓對(duì)蘇哈托說(shuō),如果他采用漢克的貨幣局制度,,這位印尼領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人就必須放棄430億美元的外國(guó)援助,。蘇哈托屈服了,然后羸弱的印尼盧比摧毀了經(jīng)濟(jì),,并在數(shù)月后導(dǎo)致了他的下臺(tái),。

漢克還在厄瓜多爾贏得了重大勝利。2000年,,他擔(dān)任該國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)部長(zhǎng)顧問(wèn),,建議厄瓜多爾用美元取代其蘇克雷。厄瓜多爾在當(dāng)年年底轉(zhuǎn)而使用美元,,成為了自100年前巴拿馬之后首個(gè)美元化的拉美國(guó)家,。薩爾瓦多在一年之后效仿這一做法。在過(guò)去的20年中,,厄瓜多爾的通脹率一直處于全球最低水平,,并因此而受益。

在這一過(guò)程中,,漢克與近代多位最具影響力的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家結(jié)下了深厚的友誼,。其中一位最緊密的合作伙伴莫過(guò)于亞倫·華特爵士(Sir Alan Walters),后者設(shè)計(jì)了撒切爾夫人的私有化和放松管制計(jì)劃,,并借此在上世紀(jì)80年代重振了英國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì),。漢克說(shuō):“透過(guò)亞倫,我親眼目睹了他在制定這些計(jì)劃時(shí)涉及的每一個(gè)元素,?!睘榱擞?jì)劃的成功,亞倫采取了自由市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)則,,而漢克則是該準(zhǔn)則的功臣,。

在他的朋友中,漢克最鐘愛(ài)的理論偶像莫過(guò)于弗里德里?!す耍‵riedrich Hayek),。哈耶克與漢克及其夫人莉莉安在華盛頓知名的Maison Blanche餐廳享用了該餐廳有史以來(lái)最長(zhǎng)的一次晚餐。期間,,哈耶克吐露,,在他年輕的時(shí)候,他曾想追求一位漂亮的維也納女士,,而這位女士恰好就是莉莉安的姑媽,。

當(dāng)然,,這些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的頂尖人物,例如哈耶克和弗里德曼都已不在人世,,無(wú)法為美國(guó)當(dāng)前的發(fā)展方向出謀劃策,。然而,漢克對(duì)此并不樂(lè)觀,。他認(rèn)為,,通脹已成必然,而且盡管軌跡呈現(xiàn)出逐漸下行的趨勢(shì),,但物價(jià)漲幅在明年年底之前依然會(huì)維持在可怕的5%,。最大的問(wèn)題在于,經(jīng)濟(jì)到底會(huì)怎么樣,,有多嚴(yán)重,,什么時(shí)候發(fā)生?對(duì)于漢克來(lái)說(shuō),,人們必須要了解從貨幣供應(yīng)持續(xù)的變化到其對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)造成影響之間存在的時(shí)間差,。這一時(shí)間跨度通常為6-18個(gè)月。因此,,M2當(dāng)前發(fā)生的變化只有在這個(gè)窗口區(qū)間的某個(gè)時(shí)間段才開(kāi)始影響GDP的增長(zhǎng)。

根據(jù)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)聲明以及自4月以來(lái)出現(xiàn)的大緊縮,,我們知道美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)寄希望于采用連續(xù)加息和量化緊縮手段抑制通脹,。不確定性籠罩著私人銀行業(yè)務(wù)。漢克警告說(shuō):“如果信貸投放依然為正,,而且剛夠抵消美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)M2的負(fù)面影響,,那么貨幣供應(yīng)增速將陷入停滯,我們將迎來(lái)衰退,。這種情況將在6-18個(gè)月窗口期的某個(gè)時(shí)段內(nèi)發(fā)生,。然而別忘了,M2增速在4月份降到了零,,因此如今經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的時(shí)間框架應(yīng)該在2022年10月-2023年10月之間,。”然而,,近幾個(gè)月來(lái),,銀行信貸投放的抵消作用一直在減弱。假設(shè)這一情況將持續(xù)下去,。漢克指出:“這樣的話,,貨幣供應(yīng)增速將轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)。最終,,等待我們的就不是伴隨著M2零增速的溫和衰退,,而是加速到來(lái),、更加嚴(yán)重的衰退。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的政策一開(kāi)始就有問(wèn)題,,然而,,令這一問(wèn)題雪上加霜的是,我們并不知道銀行系統(tǒng)在面對(duì)聯(lián)邦基金利率上調(diào)時(shí)會(huì)如何應(yīng)對(duì),,以及它是否會(huì)導(dǎo)致銀行借貸的收縮,,繼而導(dǎo)致衰退的惡化和延長(zhǎng)?!泵缆?lián)儲(chǔ)的職責(zé)是為貨幣把脈,,但它的手伸得過(guò)長(zhǎng)了。對(duì)于這位貨幣醫(yī)生來(lái)說(shuō),,此舉讓這家央行的方案成了滑稽版的胡作非為,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

如果你覺(jué)得美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正處于動(dòng)蕩之中,不妨聽(tīng)史蒂夫·漢克(Steve Hanke)和你聊聊1999年塞爾維亞的故事,。

漢克前往黑山時(shí),,黑山與塞爾維亞還同屬南聯(lián)盟的加盟國(guó)。彼時(shí),,南聯(lián)盟的最高統(tǒng)治者是獨(dú)裁者斯洛博丹·米洛舍維奇(Slobodan Milosevic),。在擔(dān)任黑山內(nèi)閣級(jí)國(guó)家顧問(wèn)后,漢克建議該國(guó)總統(tǒng)米洛·久卡諾維奇(Milo Djukanovic)用德國(guó)馬克取代南斯拉夫第納爾,。久卡諾維奇采納了漢克的建議,,經(jīng)此改革,黑山走上了獨(dú)立之路,。第納爾幾乎完全退出流通,,米洛舍維奇大為光火。

南斯拉夫信息部長(zhǎng)對(duì)漢克發(fā)起了瘋狂攻擊,,先是指控漢克領(lǐng)導(dǎo)走私團(tuán)伙向塞爾維亞走私大量假第納爾,,導(dǎo)致該國(guó)假幣泛濫,后又指控漢克是法國(guó)特工,,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)著代號(hào)為“蜘蛛”的殺手小組,,意圖暗殺米洛舍維奇。目前尚不清楚米洛舍維奇當(dāng)時(shí)是想用這種荒誕的“恐怖喜劇”破壞黑山的貨幣改革,,還是真的打算派遣特工干掉漢克,。為保護(hù)這位大師,黑山共和國(guó)總統(tǒng)特意為其更換了安保人員,?!斑@可不是鬧著玩的,”漢克回憶道,,“當(dāng)時(shí)米洛舍維奇非常生氣,,派出大量坦克陳兵黑山邊境,,一場(chǎng)沖突迫在眉睫”。通過(guò)改用幣值超級(jí)穩(wěn)定的德國(guó)馬克,,黑山擺脫了長(zhǎng)期過(guò)度通脹的南斯拉夫第納爾,。如今,黑山以歐元作為法定貨幣,,確保了該國(guó)公民的收入能夠保持穩(wěn)定的購(gòu)買(mǎi)力,。

也正是這樣的功績(jī)讓現(xiàn)為約翰·霍普金斯大學(xué)(Johns Hopkins University)應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授的漢克贏得了“貨幣醫(yī)生”的綽號(hào)。然而奇怪的是,,雖然他在全球多國(guó)抑制通脹的工作中立下了赫赫功勛,,但在2022年的美國(guó)主流經(jīng)濟(jì)圈卻幾乎完全聽(tīng)不到他的聲音。

簡(jiǎn)而言之,,漢克就是一個(gè)貨幣主義者,。

貨幣主義認(rèn)為,貨幣供應(yīng)的飆升最終會(huì)引發(fā)通脹飆升,。漢克經(jīng)常引用米爾頓·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)的口頭禪(這位傳奇的貨幣主義者將該理論由4個(gè)符號(hào)構(gòu)成的公式MV = PQ印在了自己紅色凱迪拉克的加州車牌上):“通貨膨脹無(wú)論何時(shí)何地都只是一種貨幣現(xiàn)象,,只有在貨幣增發(fā)速度大于產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)速度時(shí)才會(huì)出現(xiàn)?!?/p>

從2020年初到今年3月左右,,銀行一直在快速放貸,從抵押貸款到信用卡,,可以說(shuō)是雨露均沾,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表擴(kuò)張了超過(guò)4萬(wàn)億美元,在大肆購(gòu)買(mǎi)債券的同時(shí),,也流入了消費(fèi)者的錢(qián)包,結(jié)果就是發(fā)出的美元太多,,而可購(gòu)買(mǎi)的商品又太少,。在過(guò)去兩年多的時(shí)間里,美國(guó)的貨幣供應(yīng)量增加了6.3萬(wàn)億美元,,增幅超過(guò)40%,,年化增幅約為16%。正是廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量(M2)的井噴導(dǎo)致美國(guó)出現(xiàn)了超過(guò)8%的通貨膨脹,。據(jù)漢克估計(jì),,目前仍有3萬(wàn)億的超發(fā)美元儲(chǔ)存在滿滿當(dāng)當(dāng)?shù)摹柏泿判钏亍敝校瑫r(shí)刻都有溢出風(fēng)險(xiǎn),,而外溢貨幣將以通脹的形式進(jìn)入民眾生活,,繼續(xù)推高物價(jià)水平,這種情況將會(huì)延續(xù)到2024年,。

如今,,貨幣主義的貨幣數(shù)量理論至少可以說(shuō)已是風(fēng)光不再,。在學(xué)術(shù)界,像漢克一樣支持該理論的人寥寥無(wú)幾,。在通脹快速走高的當(dāng)下,,白宮和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)均聲稱通脹問(wèn)題與貨幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)無(wú)關(guān),也未曾提及或許妥善管理M2(貨幣供應(yīng)量的重要指標(biāo))正是解決該問(wèn)題的方法所在,。漢克說(shuō),,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)抑制通脹的努力一再失敗,說(shuō)明該機(jī)構(gòu)“一直在各種錯(cuò)誤的方向?qū)ふ彝洃?yīng)對(duì)之策”,。而通過(guò)研究漢克一路走來(lái)的曲折歷程(出身愛(ài)荷華州農(nóng)村,,一步步走向世界,幫助各國(guó)政府管理經(jīng)濟(jì)事務(wù)),,我們不僅可以知道(經(jīng)濟(jì))為什么會(huì)出現(xiàn)大問(wèn)題,,還能知道政府應(yīng)該采取哪些措施來(lái)讓經(jīng)濟(jì)重返正軌。

從務(wù)農(nóng)走向交易

漢克罕見(jiàn)地融合了冷靜學(xué)者和動(dòng)作英雄的特質(zhì),。他小時(shí)候生活中在愛(ài)荷華州農(nóng)村40英畝(約合0.16平方千米)的林地,。漢克青少年時(shí)期的工作是種植玉米大豆、捆干草,、清潔母豬生小豬的“產(chǎn)房”,、建造糧倉(cāng)以及在印刷店熔鑄鉛字。后來(lái)他還在新建公路上鋪設(shè)瀝青,。漢克說(shuō),,“我做過(guò)的工作多得讓人難以想象,如果按照現(xiàn)在的政府規(guī)定,,有些工作可能是違法的,,因?yàn)楫?dāng)時(shí)我還未成年?!?/p>

漢克第一次感受到市場(chǎng)的力量是在祖父的雞蛋店,。“祖父在愛(ài)荷華州有個(gè)大的雞蛋加工廠,。人們將雞蛋收集,、裝箱、分級(jí)并冷藏,,最后運(yùn)到紐約或波士頓,,”漢克回憶道?!盀榱藢?duì)沖價(jià)格波動(dòng),,祖父用‘遠(yuǎn)期合約’在芝加哥商品交易所出售雞蛋。”市場(chǎng)能為祖父提供保護(hù),,還能用巨額利潤(rùn)吸引交易另一方投資者承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),,讓漢克十分著迷。14歲時(shí)他開(kāi)設(shè)了第一個(gè)大豆投機(jī)交易賬戶,,此后一直在交易,。

17歲的漢克就讀于科羅拉多大學(xué)(University of Colorado),1964年畢業(yè),,一年后他繼續(xù)在本校讀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士,。攻讀博士學(xué)位期間,漢克在如今被Mining.com評(píng)為礦業(yè)領(lǐng)域全球頂尖學(xué)術(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)的名??屏_拉多礦業(yè)學(xué)院(Colorado School of Mines)擔(dān)任全職教授,。當(dāng)時(shí),該校開(kāi)設(shè)了采礦,、冶金,、石油和地質(zhì)工程等學(xué)位課程,但漢克只教授基礎(chǔ)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué),。他很快增開(kāi)了石油和礦產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)新課程,,過(guò)程中在相關(guān)學(xué)科獲得了另一個(gè)高級(jí)同等學(xué)位?!拔艺J(rèn)識(shí)了全世界著名的石油和礦業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,,”他說(shuō),。他對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)運(yùn)作十分沉迷,,所以多年后才會(huì)對(duì)賭歐佩克,。

雖然科羅拉多大學(xué)的自由市場(chǎng)團(tuán)隊(duì)規(guī)模相當(dāng)小,但漢克最喜歡的教授之一經(jīng)常得意地穿著印有標(biāo)語(yǔ)的T恤,,上面寫(xiě)著“亞當(dāng)·斯密是對(duì)的——要傳承?!睗h克最癡迷兩種思想,一是耶魯大學(xué)(Yale University)的歐文·費(fèi)希爾(Irving Fisher)和漢克導(dǎo)師米爾頓·弗里德曼倡導(dǎo)的貨幣主義,,二是側(cè)重于研究市場(chǎng),倡導(dǎo)自由市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的奧地利經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)派,。他非常贊賞奧地利學(xué)派的務(wù)實(shí)態(tài)度,。漢克說(shuō):“他們研究宏觀和微觀經(jīng)濟(jì),,也研究國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì),,涉及各個(gè)方向。其理論提供了發(fā)現(xiàn)商品和其他市場(chǎng)錯(cuò)誤定價(jià)的工具,。并不是空泛得像在另一個(gè)星球上的理論,。”

在漢克來(lái)說(shuō),,貨幣主義和奧地利學(xué)派結(jié)合的魅力在于發(fā)現(xiàn)泡沫方面的遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn),。“貨幣主義和奧地利學(xué)派對(duì)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的看法一致,,”漢克說(shuō),。“向系統(tǒng)注入大量資金,,一到九個(gè)月后大宗商品、股票,、房屋或其他資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格就會(huì)大幅上漲,。”這一解釋非常合理,,說(shuō)明資金過(guò)多會(huì)將資產(chǎn)價(jià)格推到非理性的高度,遠(yuǎn)高于基本價(jià)值之后氣球一定會(huì)爆炸,。

漢克當(dāng)學(xué)生時(shí),,在弗吉尼亞大學(xué)(University of Virginia)曾參加過(guò)沃倫·納特(Warren Nutter)教授的一系列講座,從而經(jīng)歷了另一關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻,。“納特的深入研究證明,,蘇聯(lián)發(fā)布的看似龐大的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)純屬虛構(gòu),,與約翰·肯尼斯·加爾布雷斯(John Kenneth Galbraith)等親大政府經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說(shuō)的正好相反,,”漢克回憶道。他說(shuō)自己篤信貨幣主義和奧地利學(xué)派都植根于對(duì)古典自由主義的信仰,,這是他和身為巴黎人的妻子莉莉安多年來(lái)的指導(dǎo)思想?!盎谌笾е?,”他指出,。“自由市場(chǎng),、小政府和財(cái)產(chǎn)私有。我選擇了與三大支柱適應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué),。”

1985年,,漢克運(yùn)用奧地利經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)派思想在能源市場(chǎng)上收獲巨大,。當(dāng)時(shí)他與全世界最偉大的商品和貨幣交易員之一,,也是總部位于多倫多的對(duì)沖基金弗里德伯格商業(yè)集團(tuán)(Friedberg Mercantile Group)創(chuàng)始人阿爾伯特·弗里德伯格(Albert Friedbeg)共進(jìn)午餐后,,發(fā)現(xiàn)了這一機(jī)會(huì)。目前漢克還擔(dān)任該集團(tuán)名譽(yù)董事長(zhǎng),。弗里德伯格也是奧地利學(xué)派信徒。那次偶然見(jiàn)面后不久,,漢克成為了弗里德伯格集團(tuán)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,?!案ダ锏虏褚舱J(rèn)同奧地利學(xué)派理論,,有一種能感受市場(chǎng)溫度,發(fā)現(xiàn)錯(cuò)誤定價(jià)帶來(lái)機(jī)會(huì)的神奇能力,?!睗h克指出。

漢克兼職擔(dān)任對(duì)沖基金弗里德伯格首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家期間,,利用奧地利經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)派理論預(yù)測(cè)出歐佩克即將崩潰。1985年11月17日,,漢克是第一個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)內(nèi)爆的人之一,,他在弗里德伯格的《商品與貨幣評(píng)論》中寫(xiě)道:“我們的分析結(jié)果強(qiáng)烈支持繼續(xù)看空原油,,”漢克如何分析?簡(jiǎn)單來(lái)說(shuō),,當(dāng)時(shí)石油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)高于期貨價(jià)格。用行話來(lái)說(shuō)就是,,市場(chǎng)處于“現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)”狀態(tài),說(shuō)明庫(kù)存和產(chǎn)能嚴(yán)重短缺將使價(jià)格堅(jiān)挺,。

但漢克發(fā)現(xiàn)了其中矛盾所在。表面“短缺”是歐佩克故意策劃的結(jié)果,。事實(shí)上,,沙特阿拉伯產(chǎn)能大量過(guò)剩。漢克認(rèn)為,,沙特最終將利用過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能懲罰在配額上作弊的歐佩克成員國(guó)以及非歐佩克生產(chǎn)國(guó)。一旦發(fā)生,,油價(jià)將跌至每桶10美元以下,。

漢克和弗里德伯格在紐約和倫敦市場(chǎng)努力做空,,同時(shí)還做空沙特里亞爾和科威特第納爾。從1985年11月到1986年7月,,歐佩克減產(chǎn)聯(lián)盟瓦解,油價(jià)從每桶30美元左右降至每桶9.25美元,。弗里德伯格的賭注獲得了回報(bào),客戶也賺得盆滿缽滿,。

1992年,,漢克再次為弗里德伯格下了重注,這次是外匯市場(chǎng),。歐洲貨幣體系將12個(gè)成員國(guó)的貨幣與德國(guó)馬克“掛鉤”,,在狹窄的匯率范圍內(nèi)波動(dòng),。漢克認(rèn)為,盡管當(dāng)時(shí)有所改善,,但法國(guó)與德國(guó)相比通常結(jié)構(gòu)剛性更大,、勞動(dòng)力成本更貴且通脹更高,,需要便宜得多的貨幣挑戰(zhàn)鄰國(guó),。他認(rèn)為,,歐洲貨幣體系人為支持導(dǎo)致法郎大幅高估。事實(shí)證明,,將法郎保持在規(guī)定匯率范圍內(nèi),,對(duì)法國(guó)和德國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)代價(jià)極高。漢克認(rèn)為,,最終市場(chǎng)力量會(huì)打擊其價(jià)值,。

因此,他針對(duì)法郎建立了巨額風(fēng)險(xiǎn)頭寸,,推動(dòng)市場(chǎng)力量發(fā)展,。1992年7月,弗里德伯格和其他空頭的拋售壓力導(dǎo)致法國(guó)貨幣暴跌,。8月匯率區(qū)間擴(kuò)大,,大幅降低了法郎兌德國(guó)馬克的下限,漢克和弗里德伯格再下一城,?!拔覀兊念^寸協(xié)助了繞后奇襲法郎堡壘,”漢克說(shuō),。

如今他在賭什么,?看多電動(dòng)汽車電池關(guān)鍵成分鋰。過(guò)去一年里,,電池級(jí)鋰價(jià)格增加了276%,。

行走全球的貨幣醫(yī)生

1981年和1982年,漢克擔(dān)任里根總統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,。任職期間,,他制定了一項(xiàng)宏大的計(jì)劃,將聯(lián)邦土地銷售給私人所有者,,并得到了里根的支持,。里根在1982年2月提交的預(yù)算咨文中寫(xiě)道:“在未來(lái)三年,,我們將通過(guò)擺脫這些不必要的地產(chǎn),節(jié)省90億美元的資金,,同時(shí)充分保護(hù)和維護(hù)我們的國(guó)家公園、森林,、荒野和景區(qū),?!弊罱K,該計(jì)劃未能得到實(shí)施,,漢克感嘆道,,這一藍(lán)圖是“政府執(zhí)行失敗的經(jīng)典案例”。然而,,他對(duì)提議杜撰“私有化”(privatize)這個(gè)新詞感到十分自豪,,這是其來(lái)自于巴黎的妻子莉莉安建議他使用的法語(yǔ)詞。他寫(xiě)道:“這個(gè)術(shù)語(yǔ)在我使用之前還未被收錄于《韋氏詞典》,!”因此,在漢克看來(lái),,里根的私有化計(jì)劃唯一有成效的地方在于,它促使?jié)h克勸說(shuō)韋氏字典收錄這一詞語(yǔ),。最終,,“privatize”一詞在1983年被收錄至《韋氏詞典》第九版,。

然而在公眾面前,漢克的首要職責(zé)是擔(dān)任全球貨幣醫(yī)生,。他的專長(zhǎng)是:為遭遇超級(jí)通脹的國(guó)家提供如何建立穩(wěn)健貨幣體制的建議。他的解決方案是:建立貨幣局制度,,從而發(fā)行能夠以固定匯率與錨定貨幣進(jìn)行交易的本土貨幣,,例如美元或德國(guó)馬克,;或者美元化,也就是用美元取代本土貨幣,。

早期的機(jī)會(huì)出現(xiàn)在1991年,。漢克回憶說(shuō):“當(dāng)時(shí),阿根廷實(shí)施了‘可兌換制度’(Convertibility system),。盡管這并非傳統(tǒng)的貨幣局制度,,但仍足夠強(qiáng)大,直接粉碎了阿根廷驚人的三位數(shù)通脹率,?!苯酉聛?lái)是1992年的愛(ài)沙尼亞,,漢克通過(guò)建立貨幣局制度,用新發(fā)行的愛(ài)沙尼亞克魯恩取代了超高通脹俄羅斯盧布,。此舉為愛(ài)沙尼亞創(chuàng)建自己的貨幣,、確保物價(jià)的穩(wěn)定奠定了基礎(chǔ)。1994年,,漢克在立陶宛擔(dān)任內(nèi)閣級(jí)別職務(wù),,設(shè)計(jì)和實(shí)施了一個(gè)貨幣局制度,成功地為這個(gè)愛(ài)沙尼亞的鄰居建立了財(cái)政紀(jì)律,。1997年,,漢克通過(guò)建立貨幣局制度,阻止了保加利亞肆虐的超級(jí)通脹和銀行危機(jī),。同樣,,在1997年,在漢克的幫助下,,波西尼亞和黑塞哥維那實(shí)施了貨幣局制度,,這個(gè)國(guó)家剛剛結(jié)束內(nèi)戰(zhàn),空氣中依然彌漫著火藥的味道,。

這位貨幣醫(yī)生提供了不少令人印象深刻的上門(mén)服務(wù),。漢克稱,阿爾巴尼亞的改革便是一次離奇的經(jīng)歷,。他回憶說(shuō):“整個(gè)國(guó)家只有幾輛車,。大多數(shù)都是奔馳,而且沒(méi)有牌照,。然而,,在阿爾巴尼亞黑手黨成員開(kāi)始從歐洲各國(guó)偷車之后,這一現(xiàn)象很快發(fā)生了變化,?!必?fù)責(zé)改革的是阿爾巴尼亞的副總理,漢克說(shuō):“他的奇思妙想不少,,但作為這個(gè)國(guó)家的管理者來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)災(zāi)難,。”在辦公室接見(jiàn)漢克時(shí),,這位副總理站在阿爾巴尼亞裔人特蕾莎修女畫(huà)像前,,腰里還別著一把左輪手槍,?!傲顨W洲官員感到震驚的是,,這位副總理與其他領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者隨后佩槍出現(xiàn)在了布魯塞爾機(jī)場(chǎng),!”漢克感嘆道。這些阿爾巴尼亞人對(duì)漢克向其引薦高傲的巴爾干和歐洲人表示感激,,并授予其旗幟騎士勛章,,不過(guò),他們后來(lái)并沒(méi)有采用貨幣局制度,。

1994年,,在哈薩克斯坦獨(dú)立之后,總統(tǒng)努爾蘇丹·納扎爾巴耶夫(Nursultan Nazarbayev)邀請(qǐng)漢克前往阿拉木圖,,并任命其擔(dān)任顧問(wèn),。他的職責(zé)是建立貨幣局制度,,穩(wěn)定哈薩克斯坦騰格,。漢克稱,,這一舉措以失敗告終,,因?yàn)椤澳箍撇⒉幌胱岒v格穩(wěn)定,。當(dāng)時(shí),俄國(guó)人更想要的是一個(gè)羸弱,、不穩(wěn)定的騰格,,以及根基并不怎么扎實(shí)的鄰居?!?/p>

四年后,,漢克開(kāi)啟了他最具爭(zhēng)議的貨幣冒險(xiǎn)。印尼鐵腕人物蘇哈托(Suharto)任命漢克擔(dān)任“特別顧問(wèn)”,,為印尼盧比的穩(wěn)定出謀劃策,。蘇哈托聽(tīng)從了貨幣基金組織(IMF)的建議,讓貨幣在公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)采用“浮動(dòng)匯率”,,之后印尼盧比大幅貶值,。漢克連續(xù)數(shù)晚在蘇哈托私人居所的書(shū)房與其會(huì)面,并建議“建立傳統(tǒng)的貨幣局制度,,讓印尼盧比錨定美元,,并按照固定匯率與之兌換?!碧K哈托同意了這個(gè)建議,。當(dāng)新聞?dòng)诘诙毂鰰r(shí),印尼盧比對(duì)美元匯率增長(zhǎng)了28%,。蘇哈托對(duì)漢克說(shuō),,這一革命性的理念讓漢克成為了總統(tǒng)政敵的“眼中釘”,蘇哈托分配了一部分自己的安保特遣隊(duì)來(lái)保護(hù)這位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家及其夫人,。

然而,,克林頓政府和國(guó)際貨幣基金組織十分痛恨這種做法,,因?yàn)榉€(wěn)定的印尼盧比可能會(huì)有助于蘇哈托掌權(quán),但他們希望蘇哈托下臺(tái),。漢克稱,,克林頓對(duì)蘇哈托說(shuō),如果他采用漢克的貨幣局制度,,這位印尼領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人就必須放棄430億美元的外國(guó)援助,。蘇哈托屈服了,然后羸弱的印尼盧比摧毀了經(jīng)濟(jì),,并在數(shù)月后導(dǎo)致了他的下臺(tái),。

漢克還在厄瓜多爾贏得了重大勝利。2000年,,他擔(dān)任該國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)部長(zhǎng)顧問(wèn),,建議厄瓜多爾用美元取代其蘇克雷。厄瓜多爾在當(dāng)年年底轉(zhuǎn)而使用美元,,成為了自100年前巴拿馬之后首個(gè)美元化的拉美國(guó)家,。薩爾瓦多在一年之后效仿這一做法。在過(guò)去的20年中,,厄瓜多爾的通脹率一直處于全球最低水平,,并因此而受益。

在這一過(guò)程中,,漢克與近代多位最具影響力的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家結(jié)下了深厚的友誼,。其中一位最緊密的合作伙伴莫過(guò)于亞倫·華特爵士(Sir Alan Walters),后者設(shè)計(jì)了撒切爾夫人的私有化和放松管制計(jì)劃,,并借此在上世紀(jì)80年代重振了英國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì),。漢克說(shuō):“透過(guò)亞倫,我親眼目睹了他在制定這些計(jì)劃時(shí)涉及的每一個(gè)元素,?!睘榱擞?jì)劃的成功,亞倫采取了自由市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)則,,而漢克則是該準(zhǔn)則的功臣,。

在他的朋友中,漢克最鐘愛(ài)的理論偶像莫過(guò)于弗里德里?!す耍‵riedrich Hayek),。哈耶克與漢克及其夫人莉莉安在華盛頓知名的Maison Blanche餐廳享用了該餐廳有史以來(lái)最長(zhǎng)的一次晚餐。期間,,哈耶克吐露,,在他年輕的時(shí)候,他曾想追求一位漂亮的維也納女士,而這位女士恰好就是莉莉安的姑媽,。

當(dāng)然,,這些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的頂尖人物,例如哈耶克和弗里德曼都已不在人世,,無(wú)法為美國(guó)當(dāng)前的發(fā)展方向出謀劃策,。然而,漢克對(duì)此并不樂(lè)觀,。他認(rèn)為,,通脹已成必然,而且盡管軌跡呈現(xiàn)出逐漸下行的趨勢(shì),,但物價(jià)漲幅在明年年底之前依然會(huì)維持在可怕的5%,。最大的問(wèn)題在于,經(jīng)濟(jì)到底會(huì)怎么樣,,有多嚴(yán)重,,什么時(shí)候發(fā)生?對(duì)于漢克來(lái)說(shuō),,人們必須要了解從貨幣供應(yīng)持續(xù)的變化到其對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)造成影響之間存在的時(shí)間差,。這一時(shí)間跨度通常為6-18個(gè)月。因此,,M2當(dāng)前發(fā)生的變化只有在這個(gè)窗口區(qū)間的某個(gè)時(shí)間段才開(kāi)始影響GDP的增長(zhǎng),。

根據(jù)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)聲明以及自4月以來(lái)出現(xiàn)的大緊縮,,我們知道美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)寄希望于采用連續(xù)加息和量化緊縮手段抑制通脹,。不確定性籠罩著私人銀行業(yè)務(wù)。漢克警告說(shuō):“如果信貸投放依然為正,,而且剛夠抵消美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)M2的負(fù)面影響,,那么貨幣供應(yīng)增速將陷入停滯,我們將迎來(lái)衰退,。這種情況將在6-18個(gè)月窗口期的某個(gè)時(shí)段內(nèi)發(fā)生,。然而別忘了,M2增速在4月份降到了零,,因此如今經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的時(shí)間框架應(yīng)該在2022年10月-2023年10月之間,。”然而,,近幾個(gè)月來(lái),,銀行信貸投放的抵消作用一直在減弱。假設(shè)這一情況將持續(xù)下去,。漢克指出:“這樣的話,,貨幣供應(yīng)增速將轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)。最終,等待我們的就不是伴隨著M2零增速的溫和衰退,,而是加速到來(lái),、更加嚴(yán)重的衰退。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的政策一開(kāi)始就有問(wèn)題,,然而,,令這一問(wèn)題雪上加霜的是,我們并不知道銀行系統(tǒng)在面對(duì)聯(lián)邦基金利率上調(diào)時(shí)會(huì)如何應(yīng)對(duì),,以及它是否會(huì)導(dǎo)致銀行借貸的收縮,,繼而導(dǎo)致衰退的惡化和延長(zhǎng)?!泵缆?lián)儲(chǔ)的職責(zé)是為貨幣把脈,,但它的手伸得過(guò)長(zhǎng)了。對(duì)于這位貨幣醫(yī)生來(lái)說(shuō),,此舉讓這家央行的方案成了滑稽版的胡作非為,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

If you think the U.S. is experiencing economic turmoil, talk to Steve Hanke about Serbia in 1999.

The economist had traveled to Montenegro, which along with Serbia was still part of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, headed by notorious dictator Slobodan Milosevic. Handed the cabinet-level position of state counselor, Hanke advised Montenegro’s President, Milo Djukanovic, to replace the Yugoslav dinar with the deutsche mark. Djukanovic followed Hanke’s plan, a move that set Montenegro on the road to independence. The dinar virtually disappeared from circulation, infuriating Milosevic.

The Yugoslav information minister issued crazy accusations that Hanke was leading a smuggling ring, flooding Serbia with counterfeit dinars, followed by a backup allegation that he was a French secret agent heading a hit team code-named “Spider,” gunning for Milosevic. It’s not clear if Milosevic was creating a ghoulish comedy of the absurd to undermine the currency gambit, or really dispatching agents to take out Hanke—to whom Montenegro’s president assigned the sage’s second detail of security guards. “This was serious stuff,” recalls Hanke. “Milosevic was so riled he had tanks massed at the Montenegro border, motors running.” The switch to the ultra-solid deutsche mark enabled Montenegro to escape from the chronically hyperinflating Yugoslav dinar. Today, the euro is Montenegro’s coin of the realm, ensuring that its citizens’ paychecks retain their buying power.

But it’s exploits like that which have earned Hanke, now professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, the moniker of “money doctor.” Yet oddly, despite having helped tamp down inflation all over the world, Hanke’s current views are almost totally out of the mainstream in the U.S. in 2022.

In brief, Hanke is a monetarist.

Monetarism holds that a huge surge in the money supply will eventually trigger a surge in inflation. Hanke frequently cites the mantra of Milton Friedman, the legendary monetarist who emblazoned the theory’s four-symbol formula, MV = PQ, on his red Cadillac’s California license plate: “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it can only be produced by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”

From early 2020 to until around March of this year, banks were lending at a rapid pace for everything from mortgages to credit cards, and the Fed added over $4 trillion to its balance sheet buying bonds, padding consumers’ wallets, and sending too many dollars chasing too few goods. Between the two founts, the money supply grew by $6.3 trillion or over 40%, at an annualized rate of roughly 16%. It was the M2 blowout that saddled the U.S. with 8%-plus inflation. By Hanke’s estimate, 3 trillion in excess dollars are still sloshing around in the overfilled monetary “bathtub,” and the overage that will spill forth as inflation will keep price levels elevated into 2024.

Today, monetarism’s quantity theory of money is out of vogue, to put it mildly. Hanke is one of its relatively few exponents in academia, and during this period of newly racing inflation, both the White House and the Federal Reserve are claiming that money-supply growth played no role in birthing the problem, and don’t raise the possibility that correctly managing M2, the Fed’s broad measure of money, is the way to fix it. Its record of failure, Hanke says, shows that “the Fed is simply looking for inflation in all the wrong places.” But Hanke’s circuitous journey from an Iowa farm to helping governments manage economies across the globe sheds light not just on how things go very wrong, but what governments have to do to get their economies back on the right track.

From farming to trading

Hanke is an unusual blend of sober scholar and action hero. Growing up on 40 acres of woodlands in rural Iowa, he filled teenaged jobs planting corn and soybeans, baling hay, cleaning “farrowing pens,” where sows give birth to piglets, building grain silos, as well as melting and recasting lead type at printing shops. That’s before he graduated to spreading asphalt on newly built highways. Hanke says, “I had more jobs than you could shake a stick at, and given the current government regulations, they would probably be illegal today because I was underage.”

Hanke got his first taste of the markets working at his grandfather’s egg operation. “He had a large facility in Iowa. Eggs were collected, crated, graded, and put in cold storage, and eventually shipped to New York or Boston,” Hanke recalls. “To hedge the fluctuations in prices, he sold eggs ‘forward’ on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.” It enthralled Hanke that a marketplace providing protection for his grandfather also offered the lure of big profits to risk-takers who took the other side of the transactions. He opened his first trading account speculating in soybeans at age 14, and has been trading ever since.

At 17, Hanke enrolled at the University of Colorado, and a year after his graduation in 1964, enrolled in its Ph.D. program in economics. While working toward his doctorate, Hanke doubled as a full-time professor at the prestigious Colorado School of Mines, rated today as the world’s top academic institution in the field by Mining.com. At the time, the school offered degrees in the likes of mining, metallurgy, petroleum, and geological engineering, but just one basic economics course that Hanke taught. He quickly developed new classes in petroleum and mineral economics, and in the process earned the equivalent of another advanced degree in those disciplines. “I got to know all the famous petroleum and mining economists around the world,” he says. That immersion in the workings of the oil market would guide his bet against OPEC years later.

Although the University of Colorado only had a small free-market contingent, one of Hanke’s favorite professors often sported a T-shirt billboarding, “Adam Smith was right—pass it on.” Two strains of thought captivated Hanke, the first being the monetarism pioneered by Irving Fisher of Yale and by Hanke’s mentor, Milton Friedman, and the second being the Austrian School of Economics, which focuses on the study of markets and advocates free-market economics. He lauds the Austrian approach for its pragmatism. “It’s macro and microeconomics, and international as well,” he says. “It covers everything. It gives you the tools to spot mispricing in commodities and other markets. It’s not a hairy theory out there on another planet.”

For Hanke, the appeal of combining monetarism and the Austrian strain was the foresight it provided in spotting bubbles. “Monetarism and the Austrian School said the same thing about asset prices,” says Hanke. “You inject lots of money into the system, and one to nine months later, the prices of commodities, stocks, houses, or other assets go way up.” It was a rational explanation of how too much money can drive asset prices to irrational heights, to far above their fundamental value where the balloon is bound to pop.

As a student, Hanke experienced another pivotal moment attending a series of lectures at the University of Virginia by one of its professors, Warren Nutter. “Nutter’s extensive research proved that the seemingly great economic numbers issued by the Soviet Union were a pure fabrication, the opposite of what pro–big government economists like John Kenneth Galbraith were saying,” recalls Hanke. He says that his loyalty to monetarism and the Austrian School are both rooted in a belief in classical liberalism, a guiding philosophy he and his Parisian wife, Liliane, have spent many years exploring. “It’s based on three pillars,” he notes. “Free markets, small government, and private property. I have chosen the economics compatible with those three pillars.”

In 1985, Hanke deployed the principles of Austrian economics to win a huge score in the energy market. That opportunity arose after a lunch where he hit it off with Albert Friedberg, one of the world’s greatest commodity and currency traders and founder of Friedberg Mercantile Group, a hedge fund in Toronto, and where Hanke currently serves as chairman emeritus. Friedberg was also a fellow devotee of the Austrian School. Shortly after that fortuitous rendezvous, Hanke became Friedberg’s chief economist. “Based on Austrian principles, Friedberg has an uncanny ability to take the temperature of the markets and spot opportunities thrown up by mispricing,” Hanke notes.

While working a side job as the hedge fund’s chief economist, Hanke, employing insights from Austrian economics, was able to anticipate the coming collapse of OPEC. On Nov. 17, 1985, Hanke was one of the first to predict the implosion, writing in Friedberg’s Commodity and Currency Comments: “Our analysis strongly supports a continued bearish position on crude oil.” What was Hanke’s analysis? To put it simply, at the time, the spot price of oil was far above the forward price. As the expression goes, the market was in “backwardation.” This suggested a massive shortage of inventory and capacity would firm up prices.

But Hanke spotted a paradox. The apparent “shortage” was artificially engineered by OPEC. Indeed, Saudi Arabia had plenty of excess capacity. Eventually, Hanke contended, the Saudis would use its excess capacity to punish members of OPEC who were cheating on their quotas as well as non-OPEC producers. With that, prices would crater to below $10 per barrel.

Hanke and Friedberg went short in every possible way, both in the New York and London markets. In addition, they went short on the Saudi riyal and Kuwaiti dinar. From November 1985 to July 1986, OPEC became unglued and the price of oil fell from around $30 per barrel to $9.25 per barrel. All of Friedberg’s bets paid off, and all of its clients garnered a hefty payday.

In 1992, Hanke bet big again for Friedberg, this time in the currency markets. The European Monetary System “pegged” the 12 member nations’ currencies to the deutsche mark within narrow exchange-rate bands. Hanke figured that despite a recent improvement, France typically suffered from greater structural rigidities, higher labor costs, and higher inflation than Germany, and needed a far cheaper currency to challenge its neighbor. He believed the artificial support from the EMS rendered the franc substantially overvalued. Indeed, keeping the franc within the system’s prescribed exchange-rate band was proving extremely costly to France and Germany. Eventually, market forces would hammer its value, Hanke believed.

So he pushed those forces along by taking a big speculative position against the franc. In July of 1992, the selling pressure from Friedberg and other shorts caused the French currency to tumble. By August, the exchange-rate band was widened, greatly lowering the franc’s permitted floor versus the deutsche mark, notching another coup for Hanke and Friedberg. “Our position helped break the back of the franc fort,” says Hanke.

Where is he betting now? Long lithium, a key ingredient in batteries used to power electric cars. In the past year, battery-grade lithium is up 276%.

The globe-trotting money doctor

In 1981 and ’82, Hanke served as a senior economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers. In that role, he developed a sweeping plan for selling federal land to private owners that was endorsed by Reagan. As the president wrote in his budget message, delivered in February of 1982, “During the next three years we will save $9 billion by shedding these unnecessary properties while fully protecting and preserving our national parks, forests, wildernesses, and scenic areas.” In the end, the plan failed to get traction—Hanke bemoans that the blueprint was a “classic case of failed government execution.” But he credits the proposal for creating a neologism, the word “privatize,” a French term that Hanke used at the suggestion of his Parisian wife, Liliane. “Before I used it, the term didn’t even appear in Webster’s!” he notes. So as Hanke sees it, the only productive aspect of Reagan’s privatization program was that it motivated Hanke to lobby Merriam-Webster, which eventually resulted in the word being entered in the 1983, ninth edition.

But in public life, Hanke’s principal mission is working as a global money doctor. His specialty: advising nations suffering from hyperinflation on how to establish stable currency regimes. His solution: a currency board, which issues a domestic currency that trades freely at a fixed change rate with an anchor currency, such as the dollar or deutsche mark; or dollarization, which entails replacing the domestic currency with the U.S. dollar.

An early opportunity came in 1991. Hanke recalls, “It was then that Argentina adopted a Convertibility system. Although it wasn’t an orthodox currency board system, it was good enough to smash a stunning inflation rate of 2,314% triple-digit inflation immediately.” Next was Estonia in 1992, where Hanke designed a currency board, replacing the hyperinflating Russian ruble with the newly issued Estonian kroon. It was the ticket to establish Estonia’s own currency and ensure stable prices for the nation’s citizens. In 1994, Hanke held a cabinet-level rank in Lithuania, designing and implementing a currency board system that successfully brought fiscal discipline to Estonia’s neighbor. In 1997, Hanke stopped a raging hyperinflation and banking crisis in Bulgaria by installing a currency board. Finally, again in 1997, Hanke helped implement a currency board in Bosnia and Herzegovina, a country so fresh out of a civil war that the smell of gunpowder still hung in the air.

The money doctor made many more memorable house calls. According to Hanke, the stab at reform in Albania was a surreal experience. “The entire country only had a handful of cars. Most were Mercedes and carried no license plates. That changed very fast when the Albanian mafiosi started stealing cars from all over Europe,” he recalls. As for the deputy prime minister, whom Hanke advised, “he was full of colorful ideas, but a complete disaster as an administrator.” In his office, he’d greet the economist with a revolver strapped to his belt, and standing before a portrait of native Albanian Mother Teresa. “He and other leaders later shocked the EU officials by showing up at the Brussels airport carrying sidearms!” marvels Hanke. The Albanians recognized Hanke’s contributions in introducing them to the high-and-mighty in both the Balkans and Europe, naming him a Knight of the Order of the Flag, even though they proceeded sans currency board.

In 1994, shortly after Kazakhstan gained independence, President Nursultan Nazarbayev invited Hanke to Alma-Ata and appointed him as his adviser. His charge was to establish a currency board to stabilize its tenge. According to Hanke, the effort ended in failure because “Moscow did not want a sound tenge. At that point the Russians preferred a weak, unstable tenge and a neighbor that was not sure-footed.”

Four years later, Hanke got ensnarled in his most controversial currency venture. Indonesian strongman Suharto engaged Hanke as a “special counselor” to design a blueprint for a stable rupiah—the currency had collapsed after Suharto followed the IMF’s advice to let it “float” on the open market. Hanke huddled with Suharto on evening after evening in a small den at his private residence, and proposed “an orthodox currency board in which the rupiah would be fully convertible into and backed by the U.S. dollar at a fixed exchange rate.” Suharto endorsed the idea. When the news hit the next day, the rupiah jumped 28% versus the dollar. Suharto told Hanke the revolutionary concept made him a “marked man” by the president’s political opponents, and apportioned a big part of his security detail to protect the economist and his wife.

But the Clinton administration and the IMF hated the idea because a stable rupiah could help keep Suharto in power, and they wanted him gone. According to Hanke, Clinton told Suharto that if he followed through with Hanke’s currency board idea the Indonesian leader would have to forgo $43 billion in foreign assistance. Suharto buckled, and the weak rupiah bashed the economy—and helped trigger his departure months later.

Hanke also clinched a major success in Ecuador. In 2000, he served as counselor to the finance minister, recommending that the nation supplant its sucre with the dollar. Ecuador made the switch late that year to become the first Latin American country to dollarize since Panama over a century ago. El Salvador followed suit a year later. In the past two decades, Ecuador has benefited from one of the world’s lowest rates of inflation.

Along the way, Hanke forged close friendships with some of the most influential economists of recent times. One of his closest collaborators was Sir Alan Walters, who designed Margaret Thatcher’s privatization and deregulation campaign that revived Britain in the 1980s. “Through Alan, I saw every element of those plans as he developed them,” says Hanke, who credits the free-market principles followed by Walters for the program’s success.

Among his buddies was the leading of all Hanke’s favorite theory’s icons, Friedrich Hayek. At one of the longest dinners on record at Washington’s famed Maison Blanche restaurant with Hanke and his wife, Liliane, Hayek confided that in his youth, he’d vainly wanted to romance a great Viennese beauty—who just happened to be Liliane’s aunt.

Of course, those towering figures of economics such as Hayek and Friedman are no longer around to ponder the course the U.S. is on currently. But Hanke is not optimistic. He believes that the inflation schedule’s already locked in, and that though the trajectory will gradually trend downward, prices will still be waxing at a formidable 5% by the close of next year. The big question, the piece so uncertain in severity and timing, is what happens to the economy. For Hanke, it’s crucial to understand the lag between sustained changes in the money supply and their impact on the real economy. That span is typically six to 18 months. So what’s happening today with M2 will guide GDP growth at some time during that window.

We know what the Fed plans to do with QT and the Fed funds rate, based on its statements and the big crunch since April. The uncertainty surrounds what occurs in the private sector portion, in banking. “If credit stays positive and is just enough to blunt the Fed’s negative contribution to M2, the money supply will flatline, and we’ll have a recession,” warns Hanke. “And it will happen sometime within that six- to 18-month window. Keep in mind that M2 growth went to zero in April, so the time frame for a downturn is now between October of 2022 and October of 2023.” But the bank lending that’s a positive, countervailing force has been falling in recent months. Say that continues. “In that case, money-supply growth would go negative. Instead of a milder recession that would accompany zero M2 growth, you’d get a recession much sooner that’s a lot more severe,” Hanke notes. “The Fed’s policies are bad to begin with, but what makes them worse is the unknown reaction of the banking system to an increase in the Fed funds rate, and whether that will result in a bank lending contraction that could worsen and extend a recession.” The Fed isn’t keeping its finger where it belongs, on the money pulse. For the money doctor, that makes the central bank’s regimen a travesty in malpractice.

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