去年,美國(guó)人口增長(zhǎng)創(chuàng)歷史最低水平,,現(xiàn)在表現(xiàn)出從疫情之后恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)的跡象,,而這主要?dú)w功于外國(guó)移民。
美國(guó)人口普查局(Census Bureau)周四宣布,2022年美國(guó)常住人口增長(zhǎng)0.4%,,較去年有所反彈,。去年,美國(guó)人口增長(zhǎng)率為0.1%,,幾乎停滯不前,。去年,美國(guó)新增人口近130萬(wàn),,目前美國(guó)居民人口為3.333億,。
人口增長(zhǎng)的部分原因是今年美國(guó)出生人數(shù)超過(guò)死亡人數(shù),新增約24.5萬(wàn)人,。人口普查局人口司人口學(xué)家克里斯蒂·維爾德在一份聲明中表示,,出生率顯示“美國(guó)人口總出生率創(chuàng)下自2007年以來(lái)的最大同比增幅?!?/p>
雖然相對(duì)較高的出生率有助于促進(jìn)人口增長(zhǎng),,但人口普查局認(rèn)為,這并非美國(guó)人口增長(zhǎng)恢復(fù)到正常水平的主要原因,。
最大的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素是美國(guó)移民人口反彈,。
人口普查局稱(chēng),將美國(guó)的外來(lái)移民人數(shù)減去離開(kāi)美國(guó)的人數(shù)得到的凈國(guó)際移民,,是今年人口“增長(zhǎng)的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力”,。凈移民超過(guò)一百萬(wàn)人,,與2021年因?yàn)橐泼裨黾拥?7.6萬(wàn)人相比增長(zhǎng)了169%,。
增長(zhǎng)反彈
雖然按照歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)看,美國(guó)人口增長(zhǎng)反彈幅度依舊較小,,但在今年人口增速下降引發(fā)人們對(duì)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)緊張的擔(dān)憂(yōu)之后,,人口增長(zhǎng)反彈仍是一個(gè)受人歡迎的好消息。
在疫情初期,,移民和出生率均有所下降,。2020年,疫情的爆發(fā)迫使美國(guó)的海外使領(lǐng)館停止發(fā)放簽證,,美國(guó),、墨西哥和加拿大邊境也停止了非必要出行,因此凈國(guó)際移民減少至24.7萬(wàn)人,,為數(shù)十年來(lái)的最低水平,。2020年的出生率也下降了4%,降至歷史最低水平,。
美國(guó)的出生率下降,,與其他發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的人口趨勢(shì)基本一致,包括日本和意大利等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家出生率下降,,人口持續(xù)老齡化,。在美國(guó),,出生率下降尤其引起了雇主的關(guān)注,因?yàn)樗麄冋也坏阶銐蚨嗟哪贻p人取代目前即將退休的大批嬰兒潮一代,。
移民,,尤其是年輕移民,一直被發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家視為應(yīng)對(duì)出生率下降和人口增長(zhǎng)放緩的措施之一,。
加州大學(xué)戴維斯分校(University of California at Davis)全球移民中心(Global Migration Center)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和主任喬瓦尼·佩里在2020年寫(xiě)道,,通過(guò)恰當(dāng)?shù)恼撸蛞泼窳鲃?dòng)將“減緩人口減少幅度,,避免勞動(dòng)力萎縮,,改善老年撫養(yǎng)比,創(chuàng)造積極的財(cái)政收益,?!?/p>
世界銀行(World Bank)高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家納德格·德西瑞·亞梅奧戈在2019年表示,對(duì)于出生率下降的國(guó)家,,移民可以“幫助逆轉(zhuǎn)或者至少推遲人口減少和老齡化,。”
據(jù)美國(guó)人口普查局統(tǒng)計(jì),,自2015年至2016年以來(lái),,美國(guó)凈國(guó)際移民增長(zhǎng)放緩,主要原因是疫情,、積壓的移民申請(qǐng)和特朗普政府出臺(tái)的限制更多的移民政策等,。
雖然2022年美國(guó)幾乎每個(gè)州的海外移民都在增長(zhǎng),但目前仍不確定,,今年國(guó)際移民增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)未來(lái)是否會(huì)延續(xù),。
南方各州國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際移民的增長(zhǎng)幅度最大,其中外國(guó)移民新增超過(guò)40萬(wàn)人,。佛羅里達(dá)州是2022年人口增長(zhǎng)速度最快的州,,其人口增長(zhǎng)了1.9%,其中新增國(guó)際移民125,629人,,排在第二位,,僅比外國(guó)移民最多的加州少了約100人。
但加州以及紐約州和伊利諾伊州的人口總體下降幅度最大,,因?yàn)樵谝咔槠陂g有許多人選擇永久離開(kāi)洛杉磯,、芝加哥和紐約等大都市。
這些州人口減少的主要原因是國(guó)內(nèi)人口遷移,,盡管與其他各州一樣,,這三個(gè)州的凈國(guó)際移民都實(shí)現(xiàn)了正增長(zhǎng)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
邁阿密街頭,參加節(jié)日集會(huì)的人群,。攝影:JEFFREY GREENBERG/UNIVERSAL IMAGES GROUP經(jīng)蓋蒂圖片社提供
去年,,美國(guó)人口增長(zhǎng)創(chuàng)歷史最低水平,現(xiàn)在表現(xiàn)出從疫情之后恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)的跡象,,而這主要?dú)w功于外國(guó)移民,。
美國(guó)人口普查局(Census Bureau)周四宣布,2022年美國(guó)常住人口增長(zhǎng)0.4%,,較去年有所反彈,。去年,美國(guó)人口增長(zhǎng)率為0.1%,,幾乎停滯不前,。去年,美國(guó)新增人口近130萬(wàn),,目前美國(guó)居民人口為3.333億,。
人口增長(zhǎng)的部分原因是今年美國(guó)出生人數(shù)超過(guò)死亡人數(shù),新增約24.5萬(wàn)人,。人口普查局人口司人口學(xué)家克里斯蒂·維爾德在一份聲明中表示,,出生率顯示“美國(guó)人口總出生率創(chuàng)下自2007年以來(lái)的最大同比增幅?!?/p>
雖然相對(duì)較高的出生率有助于促進(jìn)人口增長(zhǎng),,但人口普查局認(rèn)為,這并非美國(guó)人口增長(zhǎng)恢復(fù)到正常水平的主要原因,。
最大的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素是美國(guó)移民人口反彈,。
人口普查局稱(chēng),將美國(guó)的外來(lái)移民人數(shù)減去離開(kāi)美國(guó)的人數(shù)得到的凈國(guó)際移民,,是今年人口“增長(zhǎng)的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力”,。凈移民超過(guò)一百萬(wàn)人,,與2021年因?yàn)橐泼裨黾拥?7.6萬(wàn)人相比增長(zhǎng)了169%,。
增長(zhǎng)反彈
雖然按照歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)看,美國(guó)人口增長(zhǎng)反彈幅度依舊較小,,但在今年人口增速下降引發(fā)人們對(duì)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)緊張的擔(dān)憂(yōu)之后,,人口增長(zhǎng)反彈仍是一個(gè)受人歡迎的好消息。
在疫情初期,,移民和出生率均有所下降,。2020年,疫情的爆發(fā)迫使美國(guó)的海外使領(lǐng)館停止發(fā)放簽證,,美國(guó),、墨西哥和加拿大邊境也停止了非必要出行,因此凈國(guó)際移民減少至24.7萬(wàn)人,為數(shù)十年來(lái)的最低水平,。2020年的出生率也下降了4%,,降至歷史最低水平。
美國(guó)的出生率下降,,與其他發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的人口趨勢(shì)基本一致,包括日本和意大利等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家出生率下降,,人口持續(xù)老齡化,。在美國(guó),出生率下降尤其引起了雇主的關(guān)注,,因?yàn)樗麄冋也坏阶銐蚨嗟哪贻p人取代目前即將退休的大批嬰兒潮一代,。
移民,尤其是年輕移民,,一直被發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家視為應(yīng)對(duì)出生率下降和人口增長(zhǎng)放緩的措施之一,。
加州大學(xué)戴維斯分校(University of California at Davis)全球移民中心(Global Migration Center)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和主任喬瓦尼·佩里在2020年寫(xiě)道,通過(guò)恰當(dāng)?shù)恼?,正向移民流?dòng)將“減緩人口減少幅度,,避免勞動(dòng)力萎縮,改善老年撫養(yǎng)比,,創(chuàng)造積極的財(cái)政收益,。”
世界銀行(World Bank)高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家納德格·德西瑞·亞梅奧戈在2019年表示,,對(duì)于出生率下降的國(guó)家,,移民可以“幫助逆轉(zhuǎn)或者至少推遲人口減少和老齡化?!?/p>
據(jù)美國(guó)人口普查局統(tǒng)計(jì),,自2015年至2016年以來(lái),美國(guó)凈國(guó)際移民增長(zhǎng)放緩,,主要原因是疫情,、積壓的移民申請(qǐng)和特朗普政府出臺(tái)的限制更多的移民政策等。
雖然2022年美國(guó)幾乎每個(gè)州的海外移民都在增長(zhǎng),,但目前仍不確定,,今年國(guó)際移民增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)未來(lái)是否會(huì)延續(xù)。
南方各州國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際移民的增長(zhǎng)幅度最大,,其中外國(guó)移民新增超過(guò)40萬(wàn)人,。佛羅里達(dá)州是2022年人口增長(zhǎng)速度最快的州,其人口增長(zhǎng)了1.9%,,其中新增國(guó)際移民125,629人,,排在第二位,,僅比外國(guó)移民最多的加州少了約100人。
但加州以及紐約州和伊利諾伊州的人口總體下降幅度最大,,因?yàn)樵谝咔槠陂g有許多人選擇永久離開(kāi)洛杉磯,、芝加哥和紐約等大都市。
這些州人口減少的主要原因是國(guó)內(nèi)人口遷移,,盡管與其他各州一樣,,這三個(gè)州的凈國(guó)際移民都實(shí)現(xiàn)了正增長(zhǎng)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
The U.S. population is showing signs of recovery from the pandemic after growth hit record low levels last year, and Americans mainly have people from outside of the country to thank for it.
The resident population grew by 0.4% in 2022, the Census Bureau said on Thursday, a rebound from last year when population growth almost flatlined at 0.1%. There are now 333.3 million people living in the U.S., after adding nearly 1.3 million people in the past year.
Part of that population gain comes as there were more births than deaths in the U.S. this year, adding around 245,000 people. The birth rate represents the “l(fā)argest year-over-year increase in total births since 2007,” Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Population Division at the Census Bureau, said in a statement.
But while a relatively high birth rate helped, it wasn’t the main reason U.S. population growth returned to normal levels according to the bureau.
The biggest driver was a rebound in people migrating to the U.S.
Net international migration—the number of people moving to the U.S. minus those leaving the country—was the “primary driver of growth” for the population this year, according to the census. Net migration was positive at more than one million people, a 169% leap over the 376,000 population increase due to migration in 2021.
Rebound to growth
The uptick in U.S. population growth, while still small by historical standards, is a welcome relief after declining growth became a concern for tight labor markets this year.
During the early days of the pandemic, both immigration and birth rates plummeted. In 2020, net international migration fell to 247,000, the lowest in decades, as the pandemic forced closures of visa-issuing U.S. consulates abroad and land borders between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada were shut down to non-essential travel. Birth rates in 2020 were no better, having fallen by 4% to a record low.
The decline in birth rates was largely on track with trends observed in other developed nations including Japan and Italy, where birth rates have fallen while the population continues to age. In the U.S. the declining birth rate has received special attention from employers who don’t have enough young people to hire and replace the large cohort of baby boomer Americans now on the cusp of retirement.
Immigration, especially of young people, has long been seen as a weapon to guard against declining birth rates and slowing population growth in the developed world.
With the right policies, a positive immigration flow would “reduce population decline, keep the size of the labor force from shrinking, improve age dependency ratios, and produce positive fiscal gains,” Giovanni Peri, an economist and director of the Global Migration Center at University of California at Davis, wrote in 2020.
And for countries experiencing birth rate declines, immigration can “help reverse or at least delay demographic decline and population aging,” Nadege Desiree Yameogo, a senior economist at the World Bank, argued in 2019.
In the U.S., net international migration has been slowing since between 2015 and 2016, according to the Census Bureau, largely due to the pandemic, processing backlogs, and the Trump administration’s more restrictive migration policies.
It is still unclear whether the 2022 increase in international migration will hold in future years, although every U.S. state gained new residents from abroad in 2022.
Southern states saw the largest gains in terms of both domestic and international migration, and foreign arrivals added over 400,000 new people to the region. Florida was the fastest growing state in 2022 with its population increasing by 1.9%, and saw the second-largest gains from international migration with 125,629 new residents, around 100 less than the top destination for foreigners: California.
But California, along with New York and Illinois, were the states with the largest overall population declines, as people chose to permanently leave large cities including Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York City during the pandemic.
Population declines in these states were mainly due to domestic outmigration, although like every other U.S. state, all three registered positive net international migration.