艾薩克·牛頓爵士沒有說經(jīng)濟下行狀態(tài)會一直持續(xù)下去,,但這并不能阻止美國人對此深信不疑,。
在經(jīng)歷了過去幾年精神上的折磨、社會政治上和經(jīng)濟上的動蕩之后,,很難責(zé)怪人們在辭舊迎新之際對前景感到悲觀,,而在傳統(tǒng)上,新年象征著新的開始,,本該是充滿希望的時候。但蓋洛普(Gallup)對1,800多名美國成年人進行的一項新民意調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),,80%的受訪者預(yù)計2023年還將是經(jīng)濟困難年,,稅收將增加,預(yù)算赤字也將增加,。
蓋洛普的研究顧問梅根·布雷南寫道:“美國人對2023年的前景持懷疑態(tài)度,幾乎不指望2022年年底的經(jīng)濟困境會緩解,。鑒于共和黨贏得美國眾議院控制權(quán)后,2023年將出現(xiàn)政府分裂,,因此,,在美國成年人中,,很少有人預(yù)測困擾國家的黨派政治會有所改善,,這樣的預(yù)期合情合理?!?/p>
2022年,,對創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高通脹水平的擔(dān)憂,以及對經(jīng)濟衰退即將到來的持續(xù)談?wù)?,主?dǎo)了大部分經(jīng)濟對話。這種經(jīng)濟困境只會加劇美國人對新冠疫情的持續(xù)焦慮,,加劇種族主義情緒,,強化種族偏見,,還會導(dǎo)致心理健康問題和孤立主義心態(tài)加劇。
美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)在2022年大舉加息,,以抑制通貨膨脹,這是因為美國人在買房,、加油,、雜貨店或在其他日用品上消費過高。
但這也是引發(fā)經(jīng)濟衰退擔(dān)憂的部分原因,。許多美國人似乎并不認為美聯(lián)儲的策略行之有效,。蓋洛普的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,超過六成的美國成年人認為,2023年物價仍然將會飛速上漲,,股市將繼續(xù)下跌(盡管通脹已經(jīng)在緩慢消退)。超過一半的美國人預(yù)計失業(yè)率將在2023年上升,,這還沒有演化成一個令人擔(dān)憂的問題,因為盡管裁員,,科技行業(yè)尤甚,,但員工們?nèi)匀辉诔膳剞o職,,使得勞動力市場動蕩。
美國人不只是對他們的銀行賬戶和勞動力市場感到悲觀,。90%的受訪者表示,,他們預(yù)計2023年美國將爆發(fā)更多的政治沖突,;凱文·麥卡錫成為美國眾議院議長,而美國眾議院在年后一周內(nèi)出現(xiàn)了前所未有的混亂局面,,這樣的跡象足以表明他們的預(yù)測是站得住腳的,。
此外,超過70%的人認為犯罪率將會上升,,56%的人預(yù)測工會將會組織“許多”罷工。
如果這還不夠沮喪的話,,國際上的預(yù)測也同樣悲觀,。85%的美國成年人預(yù)測,,2023年國際社會和平不再,將爆發(fā)更多國際爭端,。然而,,振奮人心的是64%的美國人預(yù)計俄羅斯的實力會下降,蓋洛普指出,,這可能反映了該國最近在俄烏沖突中遭受的挫折。
無論2023年的實際情況如何,,毫無疑問的是,,自2020年新冠疫情開始以來,持續(xù)的挫折和炮火沖擊嚴重影響了美國人,,他們曾經(jīng)對興旺的21世紀(jì)20年代充滿希望。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
艾薩克·牛頓爵士沒有說經(jīng)濟下行狀態(tài)會一直持續(xù)下去,,但這并不能阻止美國人對此深信不疑。
在經(jīng)歷了過去幾年精神上的折磨,、社會政治上和經(jīng)濟上的動蕩之后,,很難責(zé)怪人們在辭舊迎新之際對前景感到悲觀,而在傳統(tǒng)上,,新年象征著新的開始,本該是充滿希望的時候,。但蓋洛普(Gallup)對1,800多名美國成年人進行的一項新民意調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),,80%的受訪者預(yù)計2023年還將是經(jīng)濟困難年,,稅收將增加,預(yù)算赤字也將增加,。
蓋洛普的研究顧問梅根·布雷南寫道:“美國人對2023年的前景持懷疑態(tài)度,,幾乎不指望2022年年底的經(jīng)濟困境會緩解。鑒于共和黨贏得美國眾議院控制權(quán)后,,2023年將出現(xiàn)政府分裂,因此,,在美國成年人中,,很少有人預(yù)測困擾國家的黨派政治會有所改善,,這樣的預(yù)期合情合理?!?/p>
2022年,,對創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高通脹水平的擔(dān)憂,,以及對經(jīng)濟衰退即將到來的持續(xù)談?wù)?,主?dǎo)了大部分經(jīng)濟對話。這種經(jīng)濟困境只會加劇美國人對新冠疫情的持續(xù)焦慮,,加劇種族主義情緒,,強化種族偏見,還會導(dǎo)致心理健康問題和孤立主義心態(tài)加劇,。
美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)在2022年大舉加息,,以抑制通貨膨脹,這是因為美國人在買房,、加油,、雜貨店或在其他日用品上消費過高,。
但這也是引發(fā)經(jīng)濟衰退擔(dān)憂的部分原因。許多美國人似乎并不認為美聯(lián)儲的策略行之有效,。蓋洛普的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,超過六成的美國成年人認為,,2023年物價仍然將會飛速上漲,,股市將繼續(xù)下跌(盡管通脹已經(jīng)在緩慢消退),。超過一半的美國人預(yù)計失業(yè)率將在2023年上升,這還沒有演化成一個令人擔(dān)憂的問題,,因為盡管裁員,,科技行業(yè)尤甚,但員工們?nèi)匀辉诔膳剞o職,,使得勞動力市場動蕩,。
美國人不只是對他們的銀行賬戶和勞動力市場感到悲觀。90%的受訪者表示,,他們預(yù)計2023年美國將爆發(fā)更多的政治沖突,;凱文·麥卡錫成為美國眾議院議長,而美國眾議院在年后一周內(nèi)出現(xiàn)了前所未有的混亂局面,,這樣的跡象足以表明他們的預(yù)測是站得住腳的,。
此外,超過70%的人認為犯罪率將會上升,,56%的人預(yù)測工會將會組織“許多”罷工,。
如果這還不夠沮喪的話,,國際上的預(yù)測也同樣悲觀。85%的美國成年人預(yù)測,,2023年國際社會和平不再,,將爆發(fā)更多國際爭端。然而,,振奮人心的是64%的美國人預(yù)計俄羅斯的實力會下降,,蓋洛普指出,,這可能反映了該國最近在俄烏沖突中遭受的挫折,。
無論2023年的實際情況如何,,毫無疑問的是,,自2020年新冠疫情開始以來,,持續(xù)的挫折和炮火沖擊嚴重影響了美國人,他們曾經(jīng)對興旺的21世紀(jì)20年代充滿希望,。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Sir Issac Newton didn’t necessarily say that an economy in downward motion stays in downward motion, but that won’t stop Americans from believing it.
After a tumultuous last few years mentally, sociopolitically, and economically, it would be tough to blame people for not feeling too optimistic entering the new year, which is traditionally a time for hope and a fresh start. But a new poll from Gallup, which surveyed more than 1,800 American adults, found that eight out of 10 respondents expect 2023 to be another year of economic difficulty, with higher taxes and an increased budget deficit.
“Americans are greeting 2023 with great skepticism and little expectation that the economic struggles that closed out 2022 will abate,” Gallup research consultant Megan Brenan wrote. “Few U.S. adults also predict the partisan politics that plague the nation will improve, not an unreasonable expectation given that there will be divided government in 2023 after Republicans won control of the U.S. House of Representatives.”
Concerns around record-high levels of inflation and continued talk of a looming recession dominated much of the economic discourse last year. Such money woes are only adding to Americans’ ongoing anxiety over COVID, heightened racism and bigotry, and mental health and isolationism.
The Federal Reserve scrambled in 2022 to raise interest rates in an attempt to tamp down inflation as Americans shelled out more money to buy homes, fill gas tanks, run to the grocery store, or splurge on other everyday items.
But that’s partly what’s sparking recession fears. And many Americans don’t seem to think the Fed’s strategy will be effective. According to Gallup, more than six in 10 adult Americans think prices will still rise at a high rate and that the stock market will continue to fall in 2023 (although inflation has been slowly ebbing). And just over half of Americans expect unemployment to increase in 2023, which hasn’t yet been a concern as workers continue to quit jobs in droves despite layoffs, particularly in tech, rattling the workforce.
Americans aren’t just grim about their bank accounts and the workforce. Ninety percent of respondents surveyed said they expect 2023 to be a year of more political conflict in the U.S.; if the unprecedented mess unfolding in the U.S. House of Representatives with Speaker Kevin McCarthy is any indication a week into the year, their prediction holds water.
In addition to that, more than 70% think the crime rate will rise, and 56% predict there will be “many” labor strikes by unions.
If you’re not yet sufficiently bummed out, predictions internationally are similarly pessimistic. Eighty-five percent of U.S. adults are forecasting a 2023 fraught with international discord rather than peace. A bright spot, however, are the 64% of Americans who expect Russia’s power to decrease, which Gallup points to a likely reflection of the country’s recent setbacks in its war against Ukraine.
Whatever 2023 actually holds, the continual setbacks and shell shocks since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 sure have significantly impacted the roaring 2020s Americans by and large were once hopeful for.