策略師警告稱,，如果即將公布的通脹數(shù)據(jù)令美聯(lián)儲失望,，美股“可能”出現(xiàn)拋售
JESSICA MENTON, ELENA POPINA,，彭博社
2023-02-14
圖片來源：MICHAEL M. SANTIAGO—GETTY IMAGES
為了保護自己,，投資者正準備付出一定的費用，以防本周將公布的關鍵通脹數(shù)據(jù)導致股市下跌,，預期物價不會像美聯(lián)儲希望看到的那樣溫和,。
市場預計，周二公布的消費者物價指數(shù)報告將顯示,，1月份消費者物價指數(shù)年漲幅放緩至6.2%,。核心消費者物價指數(shù)剔除了波動較大的食品和能源成分，被視為比整體物價消費度量標準更好的基本指標,，預計將環(huán)比上升0.4%,，較上年同期上升5.5%。
但上個月汽油和二手車價格的驚人上漲可能會中斷持續(xù)數(shù)月的通脹放緩趨勢,，這一趨勢促使標準普爾500指數(shù)從10月份的低點反彈了14%,。
“通貨膨脹很可能已經(jīng)見頂，現(xiàn)在物價正在下降,，但這并不意味著物價是線性下降的,。”Laffer Tengler Investments的首席投資官南?！る窭眨∟ancy Tengler）說,。
毫不令人意外的是，去年消費者物價指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布時，交易市場非常動蕩,，標準普爾500指數(shù)在12個發(fā)布日中有7天在下跌,。根據(jù)彭博社匯編的數(shù)據(jù)，在過去六個月里,，標準普爾500指數(shù)在消費者物價指數(shù)公布當天的平均上下波動約2.6%,，接近2009年以來的最高水平。
交易員們?nèi)匀挥浀萌ツ?月13日公布的消費者物價報告,，該報告導致標準普爾500指數(shù)暴跌4.3%,，創(chuàng)下自2020年3月以來消費者物價報告公布后最糟糕的交易日記錄。
Susquehanna International Group衍生品策略聯(lián)席主管克里斯?墨菲（Chris Murphy）表示:“只要美聯(lián)儲采取鷹派立場,，波動性就將保持堅挺,。因此，如果消費者物價指數(shù)高于預期,，市場可能會出現(xiàn)拋售,。”
但是,，根據(jù)彭博行業(yè)研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）的數(shù)據(jù),，股市對過去兩個月好于預期的消費者物價指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)的反應相對平淡，這表明美國股市可能已經(jīng)將通脹放緩帶來的影響計入股價,。因此,，如果通脹進一步放緩，2023年的消費者物價指數(shù)整體波動的天數(shù)可能會減少,。
現(xiàn)實情況是——至少就目前而言——投資者不必擔心,，因為任何價格上漲預計都是暫時的。問題是,，投資者以前也聽說過這種說法,。如果強勁的勞動力市場使工資增長保持在高位，并阻止通脹像政策制定者希望的那樣快速下降,，美聯(lián)儲可能會持續(xù)大舉加息——或?qū)⒗示S持在高位的時間比市場預期的更長,。
“市場可能對消費者物價指數(shù)走高做出負面反應，但這將為長期投資者提供買入股票的機會,?！彪窭照f，并指出本季度任何回調(diào)都是買入的機會,。她在2022年第三季度和第四季度拋售期間增加了公司的股票敞口,，并在未來三到五年內(nèi)看好蘋果公司等科技股，并堅持買入網(wǎng)絡安全和云服務股票,。
但華爾街仍有很大一部分人持懷疑態(tài)度,。
墨菲說:“我們看到投資者最近進行了更多對沖操作,，這很值得關注?！?/p>
彭博社匯編的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，對沖未來30天內(nèi)跟蹤標普500指數(shù)的最大交易所交易基金下跌10%的風險的合約，目前比從10%的反彈中獲利的期權價格高出1.7倍,。被稱為認沽對認購偏差的價格關系目前徘徊在2022年8月以來的最高水平,，當時這個由503個成份股組成的指數(shù)持續(xù)兩個月的上漲突然逆轉(zhuǎn)。
科技股重鎮(zhèn)納斯達克100指數(shù)今年因?qū)γ缆?lián)儲采取過于激進的措施的擔憂有所緩解而攀升了12%,，在上周央行行長們警告將在更長時間內(nèi)采取限制性政策后,，該指數(shù)正走出2023年以來的首次周線下跌。
盡管迄今為止,，第四季度財報季的表現(xiàn)好于人們擔憂的情況,，但一些基金經(jīng)理擔心，隨著美國經(jīng)濟繼續(xù)放緩或陷入衰退,，企業(yè)利潤最糟糕的時刻尚未到來,。在標準普爾500指數(shù)從谷底反彈后，這讓人們擔心科技股和所謂的成長股的估值是否過高,。
“我們需要看到通脹數(shù)據(jù)進一步放緩?！盚omrich Berg的首席投資官斯蒂芬妮·朗（Stephanie Lang）說,。她所在的公司建議采取防御性投資策略，看好必需消費品和醫(yī)療保健類股票,?！艾F(xiàn)在宣布抗擊通脹取得勝利、軟著陸或降息已成定局還為時過早,?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng)）
本文的撰寫得到了馬特·特納（Matt Turner）的協(xié)助。
譯者：中慧言-王芳
為了保護自己,，投資者正準備付出一定的費用,，以防本周將公布的關鍵通脹數(shù)據(jù)導致股市下跌，預期物價不會像美聯(lián)儲希望看到的那樣溫和,。
市場預計,，周二公布的消費者物價指數(shù)報告將顯示，1月份消費者物價指數(shù)年漲幅放緩至6.2%,。核心消費者物價指數(shù)剔除了波動較大的食品和能源成分,，被視為比整體物價消費度量標準更好的基本指標，預計將環(huán)比上升0.4%,，較上年同期上升5.5%,。
但上個月汽油和二手車價格的驚人上漲可能會中斷持續(xù)數(shù)月的通脹放緩趨勢,，這一趨勢促使標準普爾500指數(shù)從10月份的低點反彈了14%。
“通貨膨脹很可能已經(jīng)見頂,，現(xiàn)在物價正在下降,，但這并不意味著物價是線性下降的?！盠affer Tengler Investments的首席投資官南?！る窭眨∟ancy Tengler）說。
毫不令人意外的是,，去年消費者物價指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布時,，交易市場非常動蕩，標準普爾500指數(shù)在12個發(fā)布日中有7天在下跌,。根據(jù)彭博社匯編的數(shù)據(jù),，在過去六個月里，標準普爾500指數(shù)在消費者物價指數(shù)公布當天的平均上下波動約2.6%,，接近2009年以來的最高水平,。
交易員們?nèi)匀挥浀萌ツ?月13日公布的消費者物價報告，該報告導致標準普爾500指數(shù)暴跌4.3%,，創(chuàng)下自2020年3月以來消費者物價報告公布后最糟糕的交易日記錄,。
Susquehanna International Group衍生品策略聯(lián)席主管克里斯?墨菲（Chris Murphy）表示:“只要美聯(lián)儲采取鷹派立場，波動性就將保持堅挺,。因此,，如果消費者物價指數(shù)高于預期，市場可能會出現(xiàn)拋售,?！?/p>
但是，根據(jù)彭博行業(yè)研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）的數(shù)據(jù),，股市對過去兩個月好于預期的消費者物價指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)的反應相對平淡,，這表明美國股市可能已經(jīng)將通脹放緩帶來的影響計入股價。因此,，如果通脹進一步放緩,，2023年的消費者物價指數(shù)整體波動的天數(shù)可能會減少。
現(xiàn)實情況是——至少就目前而言——投資者不必擔心,，因為任何價格上漲預計都是暫時的,。問題是，投資者以前也聽說過這種說法,。如果強勁的勞動力市場使工資增長保持在高位,，并阻止通脹像政策制定者希望的那樣快速下降，美聯(lián)儲可能會持續(xù)大舉加息——或?qū)⒗示S持在高位的時間比市場預期的更長,。
“市場可能對消費者物價指數(shù)走高做出負面反應,，但這將為長期投資者提供買入股票的機會,。”滕格勒說,，并指出本季度任何回調(diào)都是買入的機會,。她在2022年第三季度和第四季度拋售期間增加了公司的股票敞口，并在未來三到五年內(nèi)看好蘋果公司等科技股,，并堅持買入網(wǎng)絡安全和云服務股票,。
但華爾街仍有很大一部分人持懷疑態(tài)度。
墨菲說:“我們看到投資者最近進行了更多對沖操作,，這很值得關注,。”
彭博社匯編的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，對沖未來30天內(nèi)跟蹤標普500指數(shù)的最大交易所交易基金下跌10%的風險的合約,，目前比從10%的反彈中獲利的期權價格高出1.7倍。被稱為認沽對認購偏差的價格關系目前徘徊在2022年8月以來的最高水平,，當時這個由503個成份股組成的指數(shù)持續(xù)兩個月的上漲突然逆轉(zhuǎn),。
科技股重鎮(zhèn)納斯達克100指數(shù)今年因?qū)γ缆?lián)儲采取過于激進的措施的擔憂有所緩解而攀升了12%，在上周央行行長們警告將在更長時間內(nèi)采取限制性政策后,，該指數(shù)正走出2023年以來的首次周線下跌,。
盡管迄今為止，第四季度財報季的表現(xiàn)好于人們擔憂的情況,，但一些基金經(jīng)理擔心,，隨著美國經(jīng)濟繼續(xù)放緩或陷入衰退，企業(yè)利潤最糟糕的時刻尚未到來,。在標準普爾500指數(shù)從谷底反彈后,，這讓人們擔心科技股和所謂的成長股的估值是否過高,。
“我們需要看到通脹數(shù)據(jù)進一步放緩,。”Homrich Berg的首席投資官斯蒂芬妮·朗（Stephanie Lang）說,。她所在的公司建議采取防御性投資策略,，看好必需消費品和醫(yī)療保健類股票?！艾F(xiàn)在宣布抗擊通脹取得勝利,、軟著陸或降息已成定局還為時過早?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng)）
本文的撰寫得到了馬特·特納（Matt Turner）的協(xié)助,。
譯者：中慧言-王芳
Investors are paying up to protect themselves in case the stock market sinks with a key inflation reading due this week, which is expected to show that prices aren’t moderating the way the Federal Reserve would like to see.
Tuesday’s consumer price index report is forecast to show a deceleration in annual price growth to 6.2% in January. The core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components and is seen as a better underlying indicator than the headline measure, is projected to rise 0.4% month over month and 5.5% from a year earlier.
But a surprising rise in gas and used-car prices last month may interrupt the monthslong trend of decelerating inflation that spurred a 14% rebound in the S&P 500 from its low in October.
“Inflation has most likely peaked and now prices are on their way down, but that doesn’t mean it’s a linear way down — and that’s OK,” Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer of Laffer Tengler Investments, said.
Not surprisingly, trading sessions last year were turbulent when CPI data were released, with the S&P 500 falling on seven of the 12 reporting days. Over the past six months, the S&P 500 has seen an average move of about 2.6% in either direction on the day CPI has been released — near the highest since 2009 — according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Traders still remember the consumer price report on Sept. 13, which sent the S&P 500 plummeting 4.3% for its worst CPI session since March 2020.
“As long as the Fed is in a hawkish mode, volatility will remain firm,” said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group. “So if CPI comes in higher than expected, the market will likely sell off.”
But the stock market’s relatively muted reaction to the past two months of better-than-expected CPI prints signal that US equities may have already priced in slowing inflation, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. As a result, there may be fewer turbulent CPI days overall in 2023 if the data eases further.
The reality — at least for now — is that investors shouldn’t worry because any uptick in prices is expected to be temporary. The problem is investors have heard that before. If a strong labor market keeps wage growth elevated and prevents inflation from coming down as fast as policymakers want, the Fed may raise rates more aggressively — or hold them higher for longer — than the markets had been expecting.
“The market may react negatively to a hotter CPI, but that will provide an opportunity for longer-term investors to buy equities,” said Tengler, noting that any pullback this quarter is an opportunity to buy. She added to the firm’s equity exposure during selloffs in the third and fourth quarters of 2022, and favors technology stocks like Apple Inc. over the next three to five years and is sticking with cyber security and cloud services.
But skepticism remains among a large contingent on Wall Street.
“We’ve definitely seen more notable hedging recently among investors,” Murphy said.
Contracts protecting against a 10% decline in the largest exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 in the next 30 days currently cost 1.7 times more than options that profit from a 10% rally, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The price relationship, known as put-to-call skew, is hovering at the highest level since August 2022, when a two-month rally in the 503-member index abruptly reversed.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index, which has climbed 12% this year on dialed back fears of an overly aggressive Fed, is coming off its first weekly loss in 2023 after a chorus of central bankers warned of restrictive policy for longer last week.
Although fourth-quarter earnings season has been better than feared thus far, some money managers worry that the worst is yet to come for company profits as the US economy continues to slow or lapses into a recession. This has raised concerns about whether valuations for tech and so-called growth shares are too high after the S&P 500’s rebound from its trough.
“We need to see the inflation data improve even further,” said Stephanie Lang, chief investment officer at Homrich Berg, whose firm recommends being defensively positioned in favor of consumer staples and health-care companies. “It’s premature to declare victory on the inflation battle and that a soft landing or rate cuts are a foregone conclusion.”
With assistance from Matt Turner
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