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硅谷銀行破產(chǎn)案打破大蕭條以來(lái)實(shí)行的銀行監(jiān)管規(guī)則

WILL DANIEL
2023-04-04

硅谷銀行宣布破產(chǎn)時(shí),,初創(chuàng)企業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)90%以上的存款并不在聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司的保險(xiǎn)范圍內(nèi)。

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存款保險(xiǎn)是富蘭克林·羅斯福總統(tǒng)諸多新政計(jì)劃之一,。圖片來(lái)源:UNDERWOOD ARCHIVES/GETTY IMAGES

上世紀(jì)大蕭條時(shí)期,,數(shù)百萬(wàn)人陷入貧困,銀行遭逢毀滅性倒閉浪潮,,總統(tǒng)赫伯特·胡佛整個(gè)任期都在疲于應(yīng)付,。1933年2月27日,工作一整天的總統(tǒng)新聞秘書西奧多·喬斯林非常擔(dān)心自己的錢是否安全,。喬斯林在個(gè)人日記中寫道:“雖然我覺得這樣做不愛國(guó),還是取出了支票賬戶里大部分錢,?!彼€讓妻子取了錢?!拔野炎龅氖赂嬖V了總統(tǒng),。他只說(shuō)了一句話‘西奧多,不用藏錢’……不過我只是暫時(shí)‘藏起來(lái)’?,F(xiàn)在銀行完全沒有流動(dòng)性,,恐怕一直要持續(xù)到恐慌結(jié)束?!?/p>

當(dāng)然,,這是在存款保險(xiǎn)出現(xiàn)之前,存款保險(xiǎn)主要是為了在銀行倒閉時(shí)保護(hù)個(gè)人儲(chǔ)戶的資金,,本月早些時(shí)候硅谷銀行(Silicon Valley Bank)突然倒閉,,讓驚慌失措的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)高管在一個(gè)世紀(jì)后淺嘗了大蕭條時(shí)代的味道。

富蘭克林·羅斯福剛把胡佛趕出白宮,,就立刻成立了聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司(FDIC),,這也是新政的一部分。尤其是1933年改變了行業(yè),,也被稱為格拉斯-斯蒂格爾法案(Glass-Steagall Act)的《銀行法》出臺(tái),。該法案為推動(dòng)美國(guó)陷入困境的金融系統(tǒng)恢復(fù)穩(wěn)定,通過了一系列改革措施,,其中包括設(shè)立獨(dú)立機(jī)構(gòu)聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司,,為全國(guó)商業(yè)銀行的存款提供保險(xiǎn)。

但1930年代的規(guī)定不太適合21世紀(jì)20年代,因?yàn)闉硡^(qū)的初創(chuàng)公司將數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元現(xiàn)金都存在新潮的銀行里,,風(fēng)投界的朋友們也都一樣:沒錯(cuò),,正是硅谷銀行。因此,,幾周前一個(gè)星期五硅谷銀行宣布破產(chǎn)時(shí),,初創(chuàng)企業(yè)界恐慌了,他們發(fā)現(xiàn)90%以上的存款并不在聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司的保險(xiǎn)范圍內(nèi),。

人們開始擔(dān)心銀行擠兌“傳染”,,因?yàn)榭萍汲鮿?chuàng)公司紛紛警告稱發(fā)不出工資,風(fēng)投資本家呼吁客戶從硅谷銀行和類似地區(qū)銀行取出資金,。專家警告稱,,金融系統(tǒng)可能存在“系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”,不到48小時(shí)聯(lián)邦監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)便付諸行動(dòng),,援引“系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)例外”后允許聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司,、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)和美國(guó)財(cái)政部在緊急情況下支持存款。三家監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)指出,,經(jīng)與總統(tǒng)拜登磋商,,才決定對(duì)近100年歷史的存款保險(xiǎn)概念做出重大調(diào)整。

如今隨著銀行業(yè)風(fēng)波不斷,,一些政客和商界領(lǐng)袖認(rèn)為應(yīng)該提高存款保險(xiǎn)限額,,稍早美國(guó)參議院多數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖查克·舒默也表示同意。馬薩諸塞州參議員伊麗莎白·沃倫等人則希望徹底取消25萬(wàn)美元的上限,。

但是,,聯(lián)邦政府為銀行存款提供無(wú)限擔(dān)保真是好主意嗎?《財(cái)富》雜志采訪了一系列行業(yè)專家,,他們表示存款保險(xiǎn)限額應(yīng)該提高,,提升到無(wú)限高不一定明智??赡苡袆e的解決方法,,可以將儲(chǔ)戶按“層級(jí)”劃分。

硅谷銀行的警鐘

管理著130多億美元的私募股權(quán)公司EMG Advisors的首席執(zhí)行官威爾·麥克多諾告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,,硅谷銀行倒閉證明了25萬(wàn)美元的上限應(yīng)該更新,,或者“更靈活”。他說(shuō),,如果監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)沒表態(tài)支持無(wú)保險(xiǎn)的儲(chǔ)戶,,他和很多其他高凈值人士會(huì)“登入所有超過25萬(wàn)美元的銀行賬戶”取出存款,這樣會(huì)影響銀行,,而且回導(dǎo)致風(fēng)險(xiǎn)擴(kuò)散,,其實(shí)沒必要走到那一步,。

金融不穩(wěn)定期間提高存款保險(xiǎn)限額已有先例。聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司歷史學(xué)家稱,,20世紀(jì)80年代初的儲(chǔ)蓄貸款危機(jī)(與當(dāng)前危機(jī)有一些驚人的相似之處)之后,,存款保險(xiǎn)限額從4萬(wàn)美元提高到10萬(wàn)美元。2008年大衰退后,,《經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定緊急法案》(Emergency Economic Stabilization Act)將上限提高到目前的25萬(wàn)美元,。

然而,麥克多諾和康拉德·阿爾特都指出,,如果出現(xiàn)多家銀行倒閉,,提高存款保險(xiǎn)限額也救不了儲(chǔ)戶。阿爾特是Klaros集團(tuán)聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人,,也是儲(chǔ)蓄貸款危機(jī)后期參議院銀行委員會(huì)前法律顧問,。

“有什么用嗎?也許有一點(diǎn),,但不會(huì)很大,,”阿爾特告訴《財(cái)富》,?!爱?dāng)然不是指硅谷銀行這類,比較容易估計(jì)……不管怎么劃定界限,,最后都會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)很大一部分存款沒在保險(xiǎn)范圍內(nèi),?!?/p>

拯救硅谷銀行之后,,關(guān)于提高存款保險(xiǎn)限額的爭(zhēng)論可能已經(jīng)失去意義,本周財(cái)政部部長(zhǎng)珍妮特·耶倫暗示,,即使再出現(xiàn)銀行倒閉,,未保險(xiǎn)的存款仍會(huì)獲得保護(hù)。麥克多諾認(rèn)為,,從監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的言行來(lái)看,美國(guó)已經(jīng)存在準(zhǔn)“無(wú)限存款保險(xiǎn)”,。

但在高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家兼全球投資研究主管簡(jiǎn)·哈祖斯看來(lái),,監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)最近的行動(dòng)“仍沒有為所有儲(chǔ)戶提供明確的擔(dān)?!?。

“我們認(rèn)為,對(duì)所有存款進(jìn)行明確擔(dān)保將進(jìn)一步加劇銀行壓力,,可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致其他銀行倒閉,,”他在3月22日的一份研究報(bào)告中寫道。

哈祖斯補(bǔ)充說(shuō),,國(guó)會(huì)短期內(nèi)提高存款保險(xiǎn)限額或確立無(wú)限存款擔(dān)保的可能性“相當(dāng)?shù)汀?,中期?nèi)“可能性更高”。跟《財(cái)富》雜志采訪的其他專家一樣,,這位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也警告稱,,提高存款限額“不太可能解決當(dāng)前金融市場(chǎng)面臨的更嚴(yán)重問題”。

潛在的解決方案

如果提高存款保險(xiǎn)限額甚至完全取消存款保險(xiǎn)限額都沒法解決銀行的問題,,到底怎樣才能解決,?Klaros的康拉德·阿爾特認(rèn)為,在保險(xiǎn)方面為“不同類型的存款”劃定“明確區(qū)別”可能有效,。阿爾特非常熟悉這一領(lǐng)域,,因?yàn)樗秦?fù)責(zé)起草1991年《聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司改進(jìn)法》(FDIC Improvement Act)的立法人員之一,,該法案增強(qiáng)了聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司的權(quán)力,,允許向財(cái)政部借款,并強(qiáng)制規(guī)定采用對(duì)納稅人“成本最低的方式”解決破產(chǎn)銀行的問題,。

“現(xiàn)在看看聯(lián)邦法律,,至少?gòu)拇婵畋kU(xiǎn)的角度來(lái)看,大致只區(qū)分零售存款和經(jīng)紀(jì)人存款,。其他方面沒什么區(qū)別,,”他指出。

阿爾特認(rèn)為,,與一些大企業(yè)其他形式的商業(yè)存款相比,,消費(fèi)者存款應(yīng)該獲得不同的待遇,由聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司提供更多保護(hù),。他也明確指出,,要做到這一點(diǎn)并不能只是簡(jiǎn)單地支持消費(fèi)者存款,不支持企業(yè)存款,。

現(xiàn)在硅谷和很多銀行面臨的問題是,,一些儲(chǔ)戶實(shí)際上是為其用戶管理大型FBO(無(wú)息)賬戶的金融科技公司。FBO賬戶是一種傘式信托賬戶,,將多個(gè)用戶的資產(chǎn)合并在一家公司控制下,。

阿爾特舉了支付業(yè)務(wù)的例子說(shuō)明,該業(yè)務(wù)允許用戶通過應(yīng)用快速轉(zhuǎn)賬,。此類公司會(huì)推銷服務(wù),,與客戶簽約,,然后將客戶的錢存入類似硅谷銀行的FBO賬戶。

“但硅谷銀行甚至不知道客戶是誰(shuí),??蛻粢膊灰欢ê芮宄约涸谑褂霉韫茹y行的服務(wù),”他指出,。

阿爾特表示,,此類模式的問題在于擾亂了聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司的保險(xiǎn)。金融科技產(chǎn)品的用戶主要是在銀行開設(shè)小賬戶的個(gè)人儲(chǔ)戶,,然而保管他們資金的FBO賬戶可能金額達(dá)數(shù)百萬(wàn)甚至數(shù)十億美元,,聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司又只能覆蓋25萬(wàn)美元,最后導(dǎo)致個(gè)人儲(chǔ)戶的資金無(wú)法得到保護(hù),。

這意味著,,一家銀行倒閉時(shí),“很多個(gè)人儲(chǔ)戶能夠獲得的保障可能接近零,,”阿爾特說(shuō),。創(chuàng)建不同層級(jí)的賬戶,各自賬戶獲得對(duì)應(yīng)保險(xiǎn),,就可以解決該問題,。其中大部分可以獲得全額保險(xiǎn),另一些獲得部分保險(xiǎn),,還有一些則根本沒有,。阿爾特表示,這一標(biāo)記過程可以幫助監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)分割出對(duì)消費(fèi)者或企業(yè)至關(guān)重要的大型賬戶,,對(duì)其采取保護(hù)措施,,不必覆蓋系統(tǒng)重要性較低的賬戶。

“我認(rèn)為這會(huì)成為有趣的公共政策辯論,,但需要國(guó)會(huì)的法案推動(dòng),,”他說(shuō),。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:夏林

上世紀(jì)大蕭條時(shí)期,,數(shù)百萬(wàn)人陷入貧困,銀行遭逢毀滅性倒閉浪潮,,總統(tǒng)赫伯特·胡佛整個(gè)任期都在疲于應(yīng)付,。1933年2月27日,工作一整天的總統(tǒng)新聞秘書西奧多·喬斯林非常擔(dān)心自己的錢是否安全,。喬斯林在個(gè)人日記中寫道:“雖然我覺得這樣做不愛國(guó),,還是取出了支票賬戶里大部分錢?!彼€讓妻子取了錢,?!拔野炎龅氖赂嬖V了總統(tǒng)。他只說(shuō)了一句話‘西奧多,,不用藏錢’……不過我只是暫時(shí)‘藏起來(lái)’?,F(xiàn)在銀行完全沒有流動(dòng)性,恐怕一直要持續(xù)到恐慌結(jié)束,?!?/p>

當(dāng)然,這是在存款保險(xiǎn)出現(xiàn)之前,,存款保險(xiǎn)主要是為了在銀行倒閉時(shí)保護(hù)個(gè)人儲(chǔ)戶的資金,,本月早些時(shí)候硅谷銀行(Silicon Valley Bank)突然倒閉,讓驚慌失措的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)高管在一個(gè)世紀(jì)后淺嘗了大蕭條時(shí)代的味道,。

富蘭克林·羅斯福剛把胡佛趕出白宮,,就立刻成立了聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司(FDIC),這也是新政的一部分,。尤其是1933年改變了行業(yè),,也被稱為格拉斯-斯蒂格爾法案(Glass-Steagall Act)的《銀行法》出臺(tái)。該法案為推動(dòng)美國(guó)陷入困境的金融系統(tǒng)恢復(fù)穩(wěn)定,,通過了一系列改革措施,,其中包括設(shè)立獨(dú)立機(jī)構(gòu)聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司,為全國(guó)商業(yè)銀行的存款提供保險(xiǎn),。

但1930年代的規(guī)定不太適合21世紀(jì)20年代,,因?yàn)闉硡^(qū)的初創(chuàng)公司將數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元現(xiàn)金都存在新潮的銀行里,風(fēng)投界的朋友們也都一樣:沒錯(cuò),,正是硅谷銀行,。因此,幾周前一個(gè)星期五硅谷銀行宣布破產(chǎn)時(shí),,初創(chuàng)企業(yè)界恐慌了,,他們發(fā)現(xiàn)90%以上的存款并不在聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司的保險(xiǎn)范圍內(nèi)。

人們開始擔(dān)心銀行擠兌“傳染”,,因?yàn)榭萍汲鮿?chuàng)公司紛紛警告稱發(fā)不出工資,,風(fēng)投資本家呼吁客戶從硅谷銀行和類似地區(qū)銀行取出資金。專家警告稱,,金融系統(tǒng)可能存在“系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”,,不到48小時(shí)聯(lián)邦監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)便付諸行動(dòng),援引“系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)例外”后允許聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司,、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)和美國(guó)財(cái)政部在緊急情況下支持存款,。三家監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)指出,經(jīng)與總統(tǒng)拜登磋商,,才決定對(duì)近100年歷史的存款保險(xiǎn)概念做出重大調(diào)整,。

如今隨著銀行業(yè)風(fēng)波不斷,,一些政客和商界領(lǐng)袖認(rèn)為應(yīng)該提高存款保險(xiǎn)限額,稍早美國(guó)參議院多數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖查克·舒默也表示同意,。馬薩諸塞州參議員伊麗莎白·沃倫等人則希望徹底取消25萬(wàn)美元的上限,。

但是,聯(lián)邦政府為銀行存款提供無(wú)限擔(dān)保真是好主意嗎,?《財(cái)富》雜志采訪了一系列行業(yè)專家,,他們表示存款保險(xiǎn)限額應(yīng)該提高,提升到無(wú)限高不一定明智,??赡苡袆e的解決方法,可以將儲(chǔ)戶按“層級(jí)”劃分,。

硅谷銀行的警鐘

管理著130多億美元的私募股權(quán)公司EMG Advisors的首席執(zhí)行官威爾·麥克多諾告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,,硅谷銀行倒閉證明了25萬(wàn)美元的上限應(yīng)該更新,或者“更靈活”,。他說(shuō),,如果監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)沒表態(tài)支持無(wú)保險(xiǎn)的儲(chǔ)戶,他和很多其他高凈值人士會(huì)“登入所有超過25萬(wàn)美元的銀行賬戶”取出存款,,這樣會(huì)影響銀行,,而且回導(dǎo)致風(fēng)險(xiǎn)擴(kuò)散,其實(shí)沒必要走到那一步,。

金融不穩(wěn)定期間提高存款保險(xiǎn)限額已有先例,。聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司歷史學(xué)家稱,20世紀(jì)80年代初的儲(chǔ)蓄貸款危機(jī)(與當(dāng)前危機(jī)有一些驚人的相似之處)之后,,存款保險(xiǎn)限額從4萬(wàn)美元提高到10萬(wàn)美元,。2008年大衰退后,《經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定緊急法案》(Emergency Economic Stabilization Act)將上限提高到目前的25萬(wàn)美元,。

然而,,麥克多諾和康拉德·阿爾特都指出,如果出現(xiàn)多家銀行倒閉,,提高存款保險(xiǎn)限額也救不了儲(chǔ)戶,。阿爾特是Klaros集團(tuán)聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人,也是儲(chǔ)蓄貸款危機(jī)后期參議院銀行委員會(huì)前法律顧問,。

“有什么用嗎,?也許有一點(diǎn),,但不會(huì)很大,,”阿爾特告訴《財(cái)富》?!爱?dāng)然不是指硅谷銀行這類,,比較容易估計(jì)……不管怎么劃定界限,,最后都會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)很大一部分存款沒在保險(xiǎn)范圍內(nèi)?!?/p>

拯救硅谷銀行之后,,關(guān)于提高存款保險(xiǎn)限額的爭(zhēng)論可能已經(jīng)失去意義,本周財(cái)政部部長(zhǎng)珍妮特·耶倫暗示,,即使再出現(xiàn)銀行倒閉,,未保險(xiǎn)的存款仍會(huì)獲得保護(hù)。麥克多諾認(rèn)為,,從監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的言行來(lái)看,,美國(guó)已經(jīng)存在準(zhǔn)“無(wú)限存款保險(xiǎn)”。

但在高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家兼全球投資研究主管簡(jiǎn)·哈祖斯看來(lái),,監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)最近的行動(dòng)“仍沒有為所有儲(chǔ)戶提供明確的擔(dān)?!薄?/p>

“我們認(rèn)為,,對(duì)所有存款進(jìn)行明確擔(dān)保將進(jìn)一步加劇銀行壓力,,可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致其他銀行倒閉,”他在3月22日的一份研究報(bào)告中寫道,。

哈祖斯補(bǔ)充說(shuō),,國(guó)會(huì)短期內(nèi)提高存款保險(xiǎn)限額或確立無(wú)限存款擔(dān)保的可能性“相當(dāng)?shù)汀保衅趦?nèi)“可能性更高”,。跟《財(cái)富》雜志采訪的其他專家一樣,,這位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也警告稱,提高存款限額“不太可能解決當(dāng)前金融市場(chǎng)面臨的更嚴(yán)重問題”,。

潛在的解決方案

如果提高存款保險(xiǎn)限額甚至完全取消存款保險(xiǎn)限額都沒法解決銀行的問題,,到底怎樣才能解決?Klaros的康拉德·阿爾特認(rèn)為,,在保險(xiǎn)方面為“不同類型的存款”劃定“明確區(qū)別”可能有效,。阿爾特非常熟悉這一領(lǐng)域,因?yàn)樗秦?fù)責(zé)起草1991年《聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司改進(jìn)法》(FDIC Improvement Act)的立法人員之一,,該法案增強(qiáng)了聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司的權(quán)力,,允許向財(cái)政部借款,并強(qiáng)制規(guī)定采用對(duì)納稅人“成本最低的方式”解決破產(chǎn)銀行的問題,。

“現(xiàn)在看看聯(lián)邦法律,,至少?gòu)拇婵畋kU(xiǎn)的角度來(lái)看,大致只區(qū)分零售存款和經(jīng)紀(jì)人存款,。其他方面沒什么區(qū)別,,”他指出。

阿爾特認(rèn)為,與一些大企業(yè)其他形式的商業(yè)存款相比,,消費(fèi)者存款應(yīng)該獲得不同的待遇,,由聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司提供更多保護(hù)。他也明確指出,,要做到這一點(diǎn)并不能只是簡(jiǎn)單地支持消費(fèi)者存款,,不支持企業(yè)存款。

現(xiàn)在硅谷和很多銀行面臨的問題是,,一些儲(chǔ)戶實(shí)際上是為其用戶管理大型FBO(無(wú)息)賬戶的金融科技公司,。FBO賬戶是一種傘式信托賬戶,將多個(gè)用戶的資產(chǎn)合并在一家公司控制下,。

阿爾特舉了支付業(yè)務(wù)的例子說(shuō)明,,該業(yè)務(wù)允許用戶通過應(yīng)用快速轉(zhuǎn)賬。此類公司會(huì)推銷服務(wù),,與客戶簽約,,然后將客戶的錢存入類似硅谷銀行的FBO賬戶。

“但硅谷銀行甚至不知道客戶是誰(shuí),??蛻粢膊灰欢ê芮宄约涸谑褂霉韫茹y行的服務(wù),”他指出,。

阿爾特表示,,此類模式的問題在于擾亂了聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司的保險(xiǎn)。金融科技產(chǎn)品的用戶主要是在銀行開設(shè)小賬戶的個(gè)人儲(chǔ)戶,,然而保管他們資金的FBO賬戶可能金額達(dá)數(shù)百萬(wàn)甚至數(shù)十億美元,,聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司又只能覆蓋25萬(wàn)美元,最后導(dǎo)致個(gè)人儲(chǔ)戶的資金無(wú)法得到保護(hù),。

這意味著,,一家銀行倒閉時(shí),“很多個(gè)人儲(chǔ)戶能夠獲得的保障可能接近零,,”阿爾特說(shuō),。創(chuàng)建不同層級(jí)的賬戶,各自賬戶獲得對(duì)應(yīng)保險(xiǎn),,就可以解決該問題,。其中大部分可以獲得全額保險(xiǎn),另一些獲得部分保險(xiǎn),,還有一些則根本沒有,。阿爾特表示,這一標(biāo)記過程可以幫助監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)分割出對(duì)消費(fèi)者或企業(yè)至關(guān)重要的大型賬戶,,對(duì)其采取保護(hù)措施,,不必覆蓋系統(tǒng)重要性較低的賬戶,。

“我認(rèn)為這會(huì)成為有趣的公共政策辯論,但需要國(guó)會(huì)的法案推動(dòng),,”他說(shuō),。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:夏林

On Feb. 27, 1933, as Herbert Hoover struggled to combat the Great Depression that had plunged millions into poverty and caused a devastating wave of bank failures throughout his presidency, his press secretary Theodore Joslin came home after a long day and was worried about his money. “[A]lthough I felt unpatriotic in doing so, I drew out most of the money in my checking account,” Joslin wrote in his personal diary, noting he instructed his wife to do the same. “And I told the President what I had done. ‘Don’t hoard it, Ted,’ was his only comment … But I am ‘hoarding’ temporarily. No bank is really liquid today and won’t be until this panic is over.”

Of course, that was a time before deposit insurance, which is meant to preserve the funds of individuals who invest their savings with banks in the event of a failure, but the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) earlier this month brought a small taste of that era to panicked startup executives, nearly a century later.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was created almost as soon as Franklin Roosevelt swept Hoover out of the White House, as part of his New Deal in general and in particular, the game-changing Banking Act of 1933, also known as Glass-Steagall. Conceived as a way to restore stability to the nation’s ailing financial system, it passed a host of reforms including the establishment of the FDIC as an independent agency to insure deposits at commercial banks across the country.

But this regulation from the 1930s doesn’t quite fit the 2020s, when Bay Area startups park millions worth of company cash at the trendy bank that all their friends in venture capital also use: That’s right, Silicon Valley Bank. So when SVB went under on a Friday just a few weeks ago, the startup community panicked as it realized that over 90% of its deposits weren’t covered by FDIC insurance.

That led to fears of bank run “contagion” as tech startups warned they wouldn’t be able to make payroll and venture capitalists called for their clients to withdraw their funds from SVB and similar regional lenders. Experts warned of potential “systemic risk” for the financial system and within 48 hours, federal regulators agreed, invoking a “systemic risk exception” that allowed the FDIC, Federal Reserve and Treasury Department to backstop all deposits on an emergency basis. The three regulators noted that they conferred directly with President Joe Biden before making this dramatic change to the nearly 100-year-old concept of deposit insurance.

Now, in the wake of this banking instability, a number of politicians and business leaders believe the deposit insurance limit should be raised, including, earlier today, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. And some, including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, want to get rid of the $250,000 cap altogether.

But is it really a good idea for the federal government to give out an unlimited guarantee for all deposits in the banking system? Fortune talked to a range of industry experts who said the deposit insurance limit should be raised, but to infinity is another matter entirely. There might be another way, though—creating different “classes” of depositors.

A Silicon Valley Bank wake-up call

Will McDonough, CEO of EMG Advisors, a private equity firm that manages over $13 billion, told Fortune that SVB’s collapse was evidence that the $250,000 cap should either be updated or “more fluid.” He said that if regulators hadn’t stepped in to back uninsured depositors, he and many other high-net-worth individuals like him would have “gone into any bank account I had over $250,000” and started withdrawing, which harms institutions and actually spreads risk, on top of being unnecessary.

There is precedent for raising the deposit limit in the wake of financial instability. After the Savings and Loans (S&L) Crisis of the early 1980s—which has some uncanny parallels to today’s crisis—the deposit insurance limit was raised from $40,000 to $100,000, according to FDIC historians. And in 2008, after the Great Recession, the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (EESA) raised the limit to its current $250,000.

However, both McDonough and Konrad Alt, co-founder of Klaros Group and a former Counsel to the Senate Banking Committee during the later stages S&L crisis, noted that raising the deposit limit won’t be enough to save depositors at many banks if they fail.

“Would it make a difference? Maybe a little bit, but not a lot,” Alt told Fortune. “Certainly not at a bank like Silicon Valley Bank where I would venture to guess … no matter where you draw that line, you’re gonna find that a large proportion of deposits would still have been uninsured.”

And the argument over raising the deposit insurance limit might be a moot point after the rescue of SVB, along with comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week implying that uninsured deposits will be protected even at small banks in the event of another failure. McDonough argued that regulators’ words and actions signal that a form of quasi “unlimited deposit insurance” already exists in the U.S.

But Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist and head of Global Investment Research, said he believes regulators’ recent actions “still stop short of an explicit guarantee” for all depositors.

“In our view, an explicit guarantee of all deposits would take further intensification of bank stress, potentially involving another bank failure,” he wrote in a Wednesday research note.

Hatizus added that he believes there is a “fairly low” chance that Congress will increase the deposit insurance limit or create an unlimited deposit guarantee in the near term, but “the odds are higher” over the medium term. And like all the experts Fortune spoke with, the economist also warned that raising the deposit limit is “unlikely to address the more acute concerns currently facing financial markets.”

A potential solution

If raising the deposit insurance limit or even removing it altogether won’t fix banks’ problems, what will? Klaros’ Konrad Alt argued “differentiating more” between “different kinds of deposits” when it comes to insurance could do the trick. Alt knows whereof he speaks, as he was a part of the legislative staff that drafted the FDIC Improvement Act of 1991, which strengthened the power of the FDIC, allowed it to borrow from the Treasury, and forced failed banks to be resolved using “the least costly method available” to taxpayers.

“If you look at federal law right now, at least for deposit insurance purposes, it mostly distinguishes between retail deposits and broker deposits. There’s not a lot of other distinctions,” he noted.

Alt believes that consumer deposits should be treated differently—and given more FDIC protection—than other forms of commercial deposits from some large businesses. But he also made it clear that it’s not as easy as simply backing all consumer deposits and not backing businesses’ deposits.

The problem with SVB, and many banks these days, is that some depositors are actually fintech companies managing large FBO, or For Benefit Of, accounts for their users. FBO accounts are a type of umbrella fiduciary account that combines assets from multiple users under the control of one company.

Alt gave the example of a payments business that allows users to transfer money quickly via an app. A company like this would market its services, sign up customers, and then take their money and put it into a FBO account at a bank like SVB.

“But Silicon Valley Bank doesn’t even know who my customers are. And my customers aren’t necessarily very aware they are using Silicon Valley Bank,” he noted.

The problem with this model is it disrupts FDIC insurance, according to Alt. Users of fintech products are essentially individual depositors with small accounts at a bank, but their deposits aren’t protected because the FBO accounts that hold their funds could have millions or even billions of dollars in them, which the FDIC would subject to a $250,000 insurance limit.

This means that when a bank fails, the “effective insurance available to those depositors is likely to be near zero,” Alt said. Creating different classes of accounts, each with their own insurance status, could fix this issue. Most of these would be fully insured, others partially, and some not at all. Alt said this labeling process could enable regulators to isolate large accounts that are critical to consumers or businesses and protect them, without having to cover all of the less systemically important accounts.

“I think that that would be an interesting public policy debate to have, but it would require an act of Congress,” he said.

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