暴富會(huì)讓你變得更有吸引力——這是公認(rèn)的,,而且現(xiàn)在有研究支持這一說(shuō)法。
具體來(lái)說(shuō),,平均而言,,暴富讓男性結(jié)婚生子的可能性更高,離婚的可能性更小,。但對(duì)女人來(lái)說(shuō),,情況就不同了。平均而言,,暴富不會(huì)影響她們結(jié)婚或生子的可能性,。但這讓她們快速離婚的可能性大大提高了。
來(lái)自紐約大學(xué),、斯德哥爾摩經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院和巴塞羅那大學(xué)的研究人員在一項(xiàng)新的研究中如是說(shuō),,他們?cè)O(shè)計(jì)了一種新方法來(lái)檢驗(yàn)其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家?guī)资陙?lái)一直努力驗(yàn)證的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論,。
長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家一直認(rèn)為他們的研究有助于解釋家庭生活的大部分問(wèn)題,,包括結(jié)婚,、離婚和生子,這一概念是由諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)得主加里·貝克爾(Gary Becker)在約50年前提出的,。但作者指出,,獲得必要的數(shù)據(jù)“被證明是極具挑戰(zhàn)性的”。主要的困難在于確定大量有暴富經(jīng)歷的人,,然后收集他們多年來(lái)的非經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),。
作者的解決方案是什么?研究瑞典彩票買(mǎi)家,。
就像任何彩票規(guī)則一樣,,獎(jiǎng)金不等,而且中獎(jiǎng)?wù)呤请S機(jī)的,,作者表示,,這“有效地模擬了隨機(jī)對(duì)照試驗(yàn)的條件?!比缓?,他們從公開(kāi)來(lái)源獲取了大量彩票中獎(jiǎng)?wù)吆头侵歇?jiǎng)?wù)叩臉颖荆⑵渑c政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)合并,,包括收入情況、婚姻情況,、離婚情況和新生兒出生情況,。
中獎(jiǎng)會(huì)對(duì)男性產(chǎn)生巨大影響。一名未婚男子中了約9.6萬(wàn)美元(合100萬(wàn)瑞典克朗)的彩票大獎(jiǎng)后,,在接下來(lái)的5年里,,他結(jié)婚的可能性會(huì)增加30%,而如果他已婚,,在未來(lái)10年里,,他離婚的可能性會(huì)降低40%。無(wú)論結(jié)婚與否,,男性在接下來(lái)的10年里生子的可能性會(huì)增加14%,。
相比之下,從統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義上講,,中彩票只對(duì)女性的某一方面產(chǎn)生巨大影響:它幾乎使她們短期內(nèi)離婚的概率增加了一倍,。研究人員指出,由于這種影響只在中獎(jiǎng)后的那幾年顯現(xiàn)出來(lái),一種可能的解釋是,,暴富加速了她們的離婚進(jìn)程,。
這項(xiàng)新研究至少顛覆了一種傳統(tǒng)觀點(diǎn):人們普遍認(rèn)為,年輕人會(huì)推遲結(jié)婚,,直到經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況穩(wěn)定,。如果這種觀點(diǎn)正確的話(huà),低收入女性的結(jié)婚率會(huì)在中彩票后上升,,但事實(shí)并非如此,。
這項(xiàng)研究還強(qiáng)化了一些傳統(tǒng)觀念,。與獨(dú)立的學(xué)術(shù)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)和幾個(gè)世紀(jì)以來(lái)的傳統(tǒng)智慧一致,,研究人員指出:“平均而言,財(cái)富更能改善男性的婚姻市場(chǎng)前景,,而對(duì)女性的婚姻市場(chǎng)前景影響較小,。”如果這是因?yàn)槟行院团栽趽衽紩r(shí)看重的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不同,,他們進(jìn)一步指出,,那么這就符合“有文獻(xiàn)表明,女性比男性更看重潛在伴侶的收入潛力,、智力和社會(huì)地位”,。但研究人員并沒(méi)有聲稱(chēng)他們的研究結(jié)果證明了這一點(diǎn)。
不足為奇的是,,在低收入人群中,,彩票中獎(jiǎng)對(duì)兩性的影響最大。
由于研究人員解決了收集數(shù)據(jù)的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題,,他們的新研究以強(qiáng)有力的方式和特殊性展示了家庭經(jīng)濟(jì)如何改變男人,、女人和孩子的非經(jīng)濟(jì)生活狀況,并對(duì)其產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響,。也許在說(shuō)那句老話(huà)“不過(guò)是些錢(qián)罷了”時(shí)不應(yīng)該那么輕蔑,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
暴富會(huì)讓你變得更有吸引力——這是公認(rèn)的,而且現(xiàn)在有研究支持這一說(shuō)法,。
具體來(lái)說(shuō),,平均而言,暴富讓男性結(jié)婚生子的可能性更高,,離婚的可能性更小,。但對(duì)女人來(lái)說(shuō),情況就不同了,。平均而言,,暴富不會(huì)影響她們結(jié)婚或生子的可能性。但這讓她們快速離婚的可能性大大提高了。
來(lái)自紐約大學(xué),、斯德哥爾摩經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院和巴塞羅那大學(xué)的研究人員在一項(xiàng)新的研究中如是說(shuō),,他們?cè)O(shè)計(jì)了一種新方法來(lái)檢驗(yàn)其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家?guī)资陙?lái)一直努力驗(yàn)證的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論。
長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家一直認(rèn)為他們的研究有助于解釋家庭生活的大部分問(wèn)題,,包括結(jié)婚、離婚和生子,,這一概念是由諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)得主加里·貝克爾(Gary Becker)在約50年前提出的,。但作者指出,獲得必要的數(shù)據(jù)“被證明是極具挑戰(zhàn)性的”,。主要的困難在于確定大量有暴富經(jīng)歷的人,,然后收集他們多年來(lái)的非經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)。
作者的解決方案是什么,?研究瑞典彩票買(mǎi)家,。
就像任何彩票規(guī)則一樣,獎(jiǎng)金不等,,而且中獎(jiǎng)?wù)呤请S機(jī)的,,作者表示,這“有效地模擬了隨機(jī)對(duì)照試驗(yàn)的條件,?!比缓螅麄儚墓_(kāi)來(lái)源獲取了大量彩票中獎(jiǎng)?wù)吆头侵歇?jiǎng)?wù)叩臉颖?,并將其與政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)合并,,包括收入情況、婚姻情況,、離婚情況和新生兒出生情況,。
中獎(jiǎng)會(huì)對(duì)男性產(chǎn)生巨大影響。一名未婚男子中了約9.6萬(wàn)美元(合100萬(wàn)瑞典克朗)的彩票大獎(jiǎng)后,,在接下來(lái)的5年里,,他結(jié)婚的可能性會(huì)增加30%,,而如果他已婚,,在未來(lái)10年里,他離婚的可能性會(huì)降低40%,。無(wú)論結(jié)婚與否,,男性在接下來(lái)的10年里生子的可能性會(huì)增加14%。
相比之下,,從統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義上講,,中彩票只對(duì)女性的某一方面產(chǎn)生巨大影響:它幾乎使她們短期內(nèi)離婚的概率增加了一倍。研究人員指出,,由于這種影響只在中獎(jiǎng)后的那幾年顯現(xiàn)出來(lái),一種可能的解釋是,,暴富加速了她們的離婚進(jìn)程。
這項(xiàng)新研究至少顛覆了一種傳統(tǒng)觀點(diǎn):人們普遍認(rèn)為,,年輕人會(huì)推遲結(jié)婚,,直到經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況穩(wěn)定。如果這種觀點(diǎn)正確的話(huà),,低收入女性的結(jié)婚率會(huì)在中彩票后上升,但事實(shí)并非如此,。
這項(xiàng)研究還強(qiáng)化了一些傳統(tǒng)觀念,。與獨(dú)立的學(xué)術(shù)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)和幾個(gè)世紀(jì)以來(lái)的傳統(tǒng)智慧一致,,研究人員指出:“平均而言,,財(cái)富更能改善男性的婚姻市場(chǎng)前景,而對(duì)女性的婚姻市場(chǎng)前景影響較小,?!比绻@是因?yàn)槟行院团栽趽衽紩r(shí)看重的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不同,他們進(jìn)一步指出,,那么這就符合“有文獻(xiàn)表明,,女性比男性更看重潛在伴侶的收入潛力、智力和社會(huì)地位”,。但研究人員并沒(méi)有聲稱(chēng)他們的研究結(jié)果證明了這一點(diǎn),。
不足為奇的是,在低收入人群中,,彩票中獎(jiǎng)對(duì)兩性的影響最大,。
由于研究人員解決了收集數(shù)據(jù)的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題,他們的新研究以強(qiáng)有力的方式和特殊性展示了家庭經(jīng)濟(jì)如何改變男人,、女人和孩子的非經(jīng)濟(jì)生活狀況,,并對(duì)其產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響。也許在說(shuō)那句老話(huà)“不過(guò)是些錢(qián)罷了”時(shí)不應(yīng)該那么輕蔑,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
It’s official: Sudden wealth makes you attractive—and it’s now backed by research.
Specifically, sudden wealth makes men, on average, more likely to marry and have kids and less likely to divorce. But with women, it’s different. On average, sudden wealth does not affect their likelihood of marrying or having kids. But it makes them much more likely to get divorced—fast.
So says a new study by researchers from New York University, Stockholm School of Economics, and the University of Barcelona who devised a novel way to test an economic theory that other economists have struggled to verify for decades.
Economists have long believed their field can help explain much of family life, including marriage, divorce, and having kids, a notion pioneered by Nobel Prize winner Gary Becker some 50 years ago. But obtaining the necessary data “has proven notoriously challenging,” the authors note. The main difficulty has been identifying large numbers of people who have experienced upward shocks to their incomes and then collecting non-economic data on them for years.
The authors’ solution? Study players of Swedish lotteries.
Prizes range from small to large, and, as in any lottery, winners are chosen randomly, “effectively replicating the conditions of a randomized control trial,” the authors say. They then created large samples of lottery winners and non-winners from publicly available sources and merged them with government data, including income, marriages, divorces, and births.
The results for men are dramatic. An unmarried man who wins a lottery prize of about $96,000 (1 million Swedish kronor) is 30% more likely to get married in the following five years and, if married, is 40% less likely to get divorced in the next 10 years. Married or not, men, on average, have 14% more children in the following 10 years.
By contrast, a lottery win affected women in just one statistically significant way: It almost doubled their short-run probability of getting divorced. Researchers note that because the effect is visible only in the years immediately after the lottery win, a possible interpretation is that wealth accelerates divorces already underway.
The new research defies at least one conventional view: the widely held notion that young adults postpone marriage until they reach financial stability. If that were true, the marriage rates of low-income women would rise after a lottery win, but they don’t.
The research also reinforces some traditional beliefs. In line with separate academic findings and centuries of conventional wisdom, “wealth appears to improve the marriage market prospects of men more than women, on average,” the researchers observe. If that’s because men and women value different criteria when choosing a mate, they carefully note, it would fit with “l(fā)iterature indicating that women value earning potential, intelligence, and social status of potential partners more than men do.” But the researchers do not claim their results prove this.
Not surprisingly, the effects of lottery wins on both genders are greatest among those with low incomes.
Because the researchers solved critical problems in gathering data, their new study shows with extraordinary power and specificity how family economics can profoundly alter the non-economic lives of men, women, and children. Perhaps the old saying “It’s only money” should not be spoken so dismissively.