美國(guó)大部分地區(qū)今夏有停電風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
Chris Hopper
2023-07-08
能源效率的提高和新的稅收優(yōu)惠政策促進(jìn)了熱泵的普及。圖片來源：TRISTAN SPINSKI—THE WASHINGTON POST/GETTY IMAGES美國(guó)能源部（Department of Energy）最近警告說,，今年夏天,，美國(guó)三分之二的地區(qū)面臨斷電風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。越來越普遍的說法是房主希望減少對(duì)老化電網(wǎng)的依賴,，由于能源成本上升和對(duì)電網(wǎng)可靠性的信心下降,，他們不希望受電力公司的擺布。
這言之有理。今年早些時(shí)候,，雞蛋和黃油的價(jià)格上漲上了頭條新聞,，而在悄無聲息中，2022年電價(jià)的漲幅是整體通脹率的兩倍,，房主們已經(jīng)注意到了這一點(diǎn),。事實(shí)上，根據(jù)Aurora Solar的行業(yè)速遞（Industry Snapshot）報(bào)告,，62%的受訪者預(yù)計(jì)能源價(jià)格將繼續(xù)上漲,。
房主們不僅在他們需要用電的時(shí)候?qū)Π嘿F的電費(fèi)感到沮喪，他們還擔(dān)心在自己最需要用電的時(shí)候出現(xiàn)斷電現(xiàn)象,。近一半（48%）的房主擔(dān)心天氣事件造成的停電,，緊隨其后的是電網(wǎng)受到網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊造成的停電。
這些對(duì)可靠性和成本的擔(dān)憂導(dǎo)致人們對(duì)電網(wǎng)嚴(yán)重缺乏信心,。然而,，盡管這些擔(dān)憂日益加劇，房主們卻還是越來越多地使用電力來取代其他燃料來源,。
萬物電氣化
從電熱泵到電爐和烘干機(jī),，房主們正在加速推進(jìn)家庭電氣化。也許最令人興奮的例子是電動(dòng)汽車（EV）的普及和家庭充電需求的上漲,。隨著主要的汽車制造商承諾實(shí)現(xiàn)雄心勃勃的電動(dòng)車目標(biāo),，甚至在未來實(shí)現(xiàn)全面電動(dòng)化，電動(dòng)汽車將在未來幾年掀起更大的波瀾,。
誠(chéng)然,，這種電氣化運(yùn)動(dòng)的附帶結(jié)果是（由于消耗增加，導(dǎo)致）電費(fèi)增加,。如果執(zhí)行階梯電價(jià),，即根據(jù)用戶的用電量收取不同的費(fèi)用，那么房主就有可能需要支付更高的單位電價(jià),。許多新電動(dòng)汽車車主直到購(gòu)買新車時(shí)才意識(shí)到這一點(diǎn),，甚至在新車停在私人車道后，他們打開第一張電費(fèi)賬單時(shí)才意識(shí)到這一點(diǎn),。
當(dāng)然,，考慮到電網(wǎng)問題，這種電氣化運(yùn)動(dòng)可能會(huì)讓人感覺有悖常理,。但這實(shí)際上是邁向能源獨(dú)立的第一步,。
調(diào)和兩大相互沖突的運(yùn)動(dòng)
事實(shí)上，電氣化進(jìn)程呈迅速推進(jìn)態(tài)勢(shì),，甚至在那些擔(dān)心電價(jià)和電網(wǎng)可靠性的房主中也是如此,。這有可能引發(fā)更多用戶對(duì)電力公司不滿，并加劇用戶在極端情況下對(duì)電力供應(yīng)的焦慮。然而,，還有第三種趨勢(shì)有助于調(diào)和這兩大相互沖突的運(yùn)動(dòng)：太陽能的發(fā)展,。
太陽能的普及程度可能比你想象的要高：近77%的房主要么在家里安裝了太陽能電池板，要么對(duì)購(gòu)買太陽能電池板感興趣,。Aurora Solar的行業(yè)速遞報(bào)告還顯示,，2022年美國(guó)住宅太陽能項(xiàng)目同比增長(zhǎng)近40%，與美國(guó)太陽能行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)（Solar Energy Industries Association）的太陽能市場(chǎng)洞察報(bào)告（Solar Market Insight Report）一致,，該報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn),，“就住宅太陽能而言，2022年是創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的一年,，安裝量接近6 GWdc,，比2021年增長(zhǎng)了40%?！?/p>
由于各方尋找抑制——甚至消除——推進(jìn)家庭電氣化造成的日益增長(zhǎng)的賬單的方法,，這使得人們迅速轉(zhuǎn)向關(guān)注太陽能，這是合乎情理的,。住宅太陽能安裝商也親眼目睹了這一點(diǎn),。電動(dòng)汽車和太陽能之間的聯(lián)系就是一個(gè)很好的證明：近80%的太陽能專業(yè)人士表示，電動(dòng)汽車的普及往往會(huì)引發(fā)人們對(duì)太陽能的新興趣,。
太陽能價(jià)格的持續(xù)下降也大有助益,。美國(guó)太陽能行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)估計(jì)，在過去十年中,，住宅太陽能系統(tǒng)的總成本下降了65%以上,。新的立法也提升了太陽能的可負(fù)擔(dān)性，并有助于實(shí)現(xiàn)太陽能普及,?！锻浵鳒p法案》（Inflation Reduction Act）于2022年8月16日簽署成為法律，被譽(yù)為“歷史上應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化最大的聯(lián)邦投資法案”,。對(duì)于考慮使用太陽能或電池儲(chǔ)能的房主,，以及試圖向他們推銷相關(guān)產(chǎn)品的安裝商，最大的好處是什么,？太陽能投資稅收抵免（Investment Tax Credit）恢復(fù)到原來的30%，延長(zhǎng)到2032年,，并明確包括電池儲(chǔ)能,。
事實(shí)上，《通脹削減法案》已經(jīng)對(duì)太陽能安裝商和房主產(chǎn)生了重要影響,。超過45%的住宅太陽能安裝商表示,，由于《通脹削減法案》，它們已經(jīng)看到越來越多的人對(duì)太陽能感興趣，另外40%的人預(yù)計(jì)在未來會(huì)看到越來越多的人對(duì)太陽能感興趣,。
追求能源獨(dú)立
使用太陽能有助于解決由于推進(jìn)家庭電氣化而造成的電力需求增加,，但這并不能夠完全解決對(duì)能源獨(dú)立和安全的渴望。只安裝太陽能電池板的家庭必須立即消耗或出售產(chǎn)生的電力,。這就是住宅電池儲(chǔ)能發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用的地方：將發(fā)電與用電脫鉤,，給房主更多的控制權(quán)。對(duì)于那些已經(jīng)接受關(guān)鍵設(shè)備,、系統(tǒng)和車輛電氣化的房主來說,，這更有價(jià)值。電池儲(chǔ)能技術(shù)讓他們能夠儲(chǔ)存自己設(shè)備產(chǎn)生的太陽能,，并在最關(guān)鍵的時(shí)候進(jìn)行使用,。
因此，82%的太陽能專業(yè)人士注意到越來越多的房主對(duì)電池儲(chǔ)能感興趣,，這不足為奇,。這種太陽能和儲(chǔ)能的結(jié)合可以幫助房主在不同程度上獨(dú)立于電網(wǎng)，而且,，無論是在緊急情況下,，還是在電費(fèi)最高的時(shí)候，他們都能夠在最需要用電的時(shí)候獲得電力供應(yīng),，因此可以感到安心,。
家庭電氣化發(fā)展趨勢(shì)似乎與房主對(duì)昂貴電費(fèi)和電網(wǎng)可靠性不足的擔(dān)憂不一致。但房主是睿智的,。隨著家庭電氣化進(jìn)程持續(xù)推進(jìn),，太陽能光伏（和儲(chǔ)能）安裝量將持續(xù)飆升。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
本文作者克里斯·霍珀（Chris Hopper）是Aurora Solar的首席執(zhí)行官及聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人,。
Fortune.com上發(fā)表的評(píng)論文章中表達(dá)的觀點(diǎn),，僅代表作者本人的觀點(diǎn)，不代表《財(cái)富》雜志的觀點(diǎn)和立場(chǎng),。
譯者：中慧言-王芳
美國(guó)能源部（Department of Energy）最近警告說,，今年夏天，美國(guó)三分之二的地區(qū)面臨斷電風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。越來越普遍的說法是房主希望減少對(duì)老化電網(wǎng)的依賴,，由于能源成本上升和對(duì)電網(wǎng)可靠性的信心下降，他們不希望受電力公司的擺布,。
這言之有理,。今年早些時(shí)候，雞蛋和黃油的價(jià)格上漲上了頭條新聞,，而在悄無聲息中,，2022年電價(jià)的漲幅是整體通脹率的兩倍,，房主們已經(jīng)注意到了這一點(diǎn)。事實(shí)上,，根據(jù)Aurora Solar的行業(yè)速遞（Industry Snapshot）報(bào)告,，62%的受訪者預(yù)計(jì)能源價(jià)格將繼續(xù)上漲。
房主們不僅在他們需要用電的時(shí)候?qū)Π嘿F的電費(fèi)感到沮喪,，他們還擔(dān)心在自己最需要用電的時(shí)候出現(xiàn)斷電現(xiàn)象,。近一半（48%）的房主擔(dān)心天氣事件造成的停電，緊隨其后的是電網(wǎng)受到網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊造成的停電,。
這些對(duì)可靠性和成本的擔(dān)憂導(dǎo)致人們對(duì)電網(wǎng)嚴(yán)重缺乏信心,。然而，盡管這些擔(dān)憂日益加劇,，房主們卻還是越來越多地使用電力來取代其他燃料來源,。
萬物電氣化
從電熱泵到電爐和烘干機(jī)，房主們正在加速推進(jìn)家庭電氣化,。也許最令人興奮的例子是電動(dòng)汽車（EV）的普及和家庭充電需求的上漲,。隨著主要的汽車制造商承諾實(shí)現(xiàn)雄心勃勃的電動(dòng)車目標(biāo)，甚至在未來實(shí)現(xiàn)全面電動(dòng)化,，電動(dòng)汽車將在未來幾年掀起更大的波瀾,。
誠(chéng)然，這種電氣化運(yùn)動(dòng)的附帶結(jié)果是（由于消耗增加,，導(dǎo)致）電費(fèi)增加,。如果執(zhí)行階梯電價(jià)，即根據(jù)用戶的用電量收取不同的費(fèi)用,，那么房主就有可能需要支付更高的單位電價(jià),。許多新電動(dòng)汽車車主直到購(gòu)買新車時(shí)才意識(shí)到這一點(diǎn)，甚至在新車停在私人車道后,，他們打開第一張電費(fèi)賬單時(shí)才意識(shí)到這一點(diǎn),。
當(dāng)然，考慮到電網(wǎng)問題,，這種電氣化運(yùn)動(dòng)可能會(huì)讓人感覺有悖常理,。但這實(shí)際上是邁向能源獨(dú)立的第一步。
調(diào)和兩大相互沖突的運(yùn)動(dòng)
事實(shí)上,，電氣化進(jìn)程呈迅速推進(jìn)態(tài)勢(shì),，甚至在那些擔(dān)心電價(jià)和電網(wǎng)可靠性的房主中也是如此。這有可能引發(fā)更多用戶對(duì)電力公司不滿,，并加劇用戶在極端情況下對(duì)電力供應(yīng)的焦慮,。然而，還有第三種趨勢(shì)有助于調(diào)和這兩大相互沖突的運(yùn)動(dòng)：太陽能的發(fā)展,。
太陽能的普及程度可能比你想象的要高：近77%的房主要么在家里安裝了太陽能電池板,，要么對(duì)購(gòu)買太陽能電池板感興趣。Aurora Solar的行業(yè)速遞報(bào)告還顯示,，2022年美國(guó)住宅太陽能項(xiàng)目同比增長(zhǎng)近40%,，與美國(guó)太陽能行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)（Solar Energy Industries Association）的太陽能市場(chǎng)洞察報(bào)告（Solar Market Insight Report）一致，該報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn),，“就住宅太陽能而言,，2022年是創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的一年，安裝量接近6 GWdc,，比2021年增長(zhǎng)了40%,。”
由于各方尋找抑制——甚至消除——推進(jìn)家庭電氣化造成的日益增長(zhǎng)的賬單的方法,，這使得人們迅速轉(zhuǎn)向關(guān)注太陽能,，這是合乎情理的。住宅太陽能安裝商也親眼目睹了這一點(diǎn),。電動(dòng)汽車和太陽能之間的聯(lián)系就是一個(gè)很好的證明：近80%的太陽能專業(yè)人士表示,，電動(dòng)汽車的普及往往會(huì)引發(fā)人們對(duì)太陽能的新興趣。
太陽能價(jià)格的持續(xù)下降也大有助益,。美國(guó)太陽能行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)估計(jì),，在過去十年中，住宅太陽能系統(tǒng)的總成本下降了65%以上,。新的立法也提升了太陽能的可負(fù)擔(dān)性,，并有助于實(shí)現(xiàn)太陽能普及?！锻浵鳒p法案》（Inflation Reduction Act）于2022年8月16日簽署成為法律,，被譽(yù)為“歷史上應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化最大的聯(lián)邦投資法案”。對(duì)于考慮使用太陽能或電池儲(chǔ)能的房主,，以及試圖向他們推銷相關(guān)產(chǎn)品的安裝商,，最大的好處是什么？太陽能投資稅收抵免（Investment Tax Credit）恢復(fù)到原來的30%,，延長(zhǎng)到2032年,，并明確包括電池儲(chǔ)能。
事實(shí)上,，《通脹削減法案》已經(jīng)對(duì)太陽能安裝商和房主產(chǎn)生了重要影響,。超過45%的住宅太陽能安裝商表示，由于《通脹削減法案》,，它們已經(jīng)看到越來越多的人對(duì)太陽能感興趣,，另外40%的人預(yù)計(jì)在未來會(huì)看到越來越多的人對(duì)太陽能感興趣。
追求能源獨(dú)立
使用太陽能有助于解決由于推進(jìn)家庭電氣化而造成的電力需求增加,，但這并不能夠完全解決對(duì)能源獨(dú)立和安全的渴望,。只安裝太陽能電池板的家庭必須立即消耗或出售產(chǎn)生的電力,。這就是住宅電池儲(chǔ)能發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用的地方：將發(fā)電與用電脫鉤，給房主更多的控制權(quán),。對(duì)于那些已經(jīng)接受關(guān)鍵設(shè)備,、系統(tǒng)和車輛電氣化的房主來說，這更有價(jià)值,。電池儲(chǔ)能技術(shù)讓他們能夠儲(chǔ)存自己設(shè)備產(chǎn)生的太陽能,，并在最關(guān)鍵的時(shí)候進(jìn)行使用。
因此,，82%的太陽能專業(yè)人士注意到越來越多的房主對(duì)電池儲(chǔ)能感興趣,，這不足為奇。這種太陽能和儲(chǔ)能的結(jié)合可以幫助房主在不同程度上獨(dú)立于電網(wǎng),，而且,，無論是在緊急情況下，還是在電費(fèi)最高的時(shí)候,，他們都能夠在最需要用電的時(shí)候獲得電力供應(yīng),，因此可以感到安心。
家庭電氣化發(fā)展趨勢(shì)似乎與房主對(duì)昂貴電費(fèi)和電網(wǎng)可靠性不足的擔(dān)憂不一致,。但房主是睿智的,。隨著家庭電氣化進(jìn)程持續(xù)推進(jìn)，太陽能光伏（和儲(chǔ)能）安裝量將持續(xù)飆升,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
本文作者克里斯·霍珀（Chris Hopper）是Aurora Solar的首席執(zhí)行官及聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人,。
Fortune.com上發(fā)表的評(píng)論文章中表達(dá)的觀點(diǎn)，僅代表作者本人的觀點(diǎn),，不代表《財(cái)富》雜志的觀點(diǎn)和立場(chǎng),。
譯者：中慧言-王芳
The Department of Energy recently warned that two-thirds of the U.S. is at risk of losing power this summer. It’s an increasingly common refrain: Homeowners want to be less reliant on the aging power grid and don’t want to be at the mercy of electric utilities due to rising energy costs and dwindling faith in the power grid’s reliability.
And it makes sense. While the inflated price of eggs and butter made headlines earlier this year, electricity prices quietly increased at twice the rate of overall inflation in 2022, and homeowners have taken notice. In fact, according to Aurora Solar’s Industry Snapshot, 62% expect energy prices will continue to rise.
Homeowners aren’t just frustrated that electricity is pricey when they need it, they’re also worried it won’t be available at all when they feel the most vulnerable. Nearly half (48%) of homeowners are concerned about power outages stemming from weather events, followed closely by outages due to cyberattacks on the power grid.
These concerns around reliability and cost are creating a deep lack of confidence in the power grid. Yet, despite these growing concerns, homeowners are increasingly using electricity to displace other fuel sources.
The electrification of everything
From electric heat pumps to electric stoves and clothes dryers, homeowners are accelerating the electrification of their homes. Perhaps the most exciting example is electric vehicle (EV) adoption and the need for home charging. With major vehicle makers committing to ambitious electric vehicle targets and even going all-electric in the future, EVs are primed to make an even bigger splash in the years to come.
The by-product of this electrification movement is, of course, higher electric bills because of increased consumption. Homeowners also risk paying more for every unit of energy they use if they’re part of a tiered pricing utility structure, in which customers are charged different rates based on the total amount of energy they use. Many new electric vehicle owners don’t realize this until they are deep into purchasing their new vehicle, or even when they open that first electric bill after the car is in their driveway.
Sure, this electrification movement can feel counterintuitive given the power grid concerns. But it’s actually the first step toward energy independence.
Balancing conflicting movements
The fact is that electrification is moving forward quickly, even among homeowners who are concerned about electricity prices and power grid reliability. This has the potential to lead to even more discontent with electric utilities and growing anxiety over access to electricity in extreme situations. There is a third trend, though, that can help reconcile these two conflicting movements: the growth of solar.
The popularity of solar is likely higher than you think: Nearly 77% of homeowners either have solar panels on their homes or are interested in purchasing solar. The Aurora Solar Industry Snapshot report also showed a nearly 40% year-over-year increase in residential solar projects across the U.S. in 2022, aligning with the Solar Energy Industries Association’s (SEIA) Solar Market Insight Report, which found, “Residential solar had a record year [in 2022] with nearly 6 GWdc of installations, representing 40% growth over 2021.”
It makes sense that finding ways to tamp down—even eliminate—growing bills caused by the electrification of homes is accelerating interest in solar, and residential solar installers are seeing this firsthand. The link between EVs and solar is a great proof point: Almost 80% of solar professionals said EV adoption often drives new interest in solar.
It helps that the price of solar continues to drop. SEIA estimates that the total cost of a residential solar system decreased by over 65% in the past decade. New legislation is also contributing to solar’s affordability and popularity. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed into law on Aug. 16, 2022, has been hailed as “the most substantial federal investment in history to fight climate change.” The biggest benefit for homeowners considering solar or battery storage, and installers trying to sell to them? The solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC) was restored to its original 30% credit, extended until 2032, and clarified to include battery storage.
In fact, the IRA already made a meaningful impact on both solar installers and homeowners. More than 45% of residential solar installers say they have seen increased interest in solar thanks to the IRA, and another 40% expect to see increased interest in the future.
The pursuit of energy independence
Solar adoption alone can help address increased electricity demand caused by the electrification of homes, but it doesn’t fully address the desire for energy independence and security. Homes that only have solar panels must immediately consume or sell the electricity they generate. This is where residential battery storage plays a key role: decoupling when electricity is generated from when it is consumed, giving more control to the homeowner. This is even more valuable for homeowners who have already embraced the electrification of key appliances, systems, and vehicles. Storage lets them save the solar energy they generate and use it when it’s most valuable.
It’s not surprising, then, that 82% of solar professionals noticed an increased interest in battery storage from homeowners. This combination of solar plus storage helps homeowners achieve various levels of independence from the power grid and peace of mind that they’ll have power when they need it most, whether that’s in an emergency situation or simply when the cost of electricity is at its highest.
The home electrification trend may seem to be out of step with the concerns homeowners have with the costly and unreliable electricity grid. But homeowners are smart. As home electrification continues to gain steam, solar (and storage) installs will continue to go through the roof.
Chris Hopper is the CEO and cofounder of Aurora Solar.
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.
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