明年美國經(jīng)濟增長將放緩，失業(yè)率會上升,，但幅度都不會很大
美聯(lián)社
2023-07-30
美聯(lián)儲（Federal Reserve）主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾,。圖片來源：AL DRAGO/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES
美國國會預算辦公室（Congressional Budget Office）周三報告稱,，今年迄今為止的經(jīng)濟和就業(yè)增長優(yōu)于2月的預期，但其一份最新的展望報告顯示,，部分經(jīng)濟領域?qū)⒃?024年前走弱,。
無黨派機構(gòu)美國國會預算辦公室最新發(fā)布的十年預算與經(jīng)濟展望報告表明，要搞清楚美國在新冠疫情過后將何去何從是極難的,。美聯(lián)儲旨在對抗高通脹的加息并未導致大規(guī)模裁員和經(jīng)濟衰退,，反而使經(jīng)濟增長和招聘需求保持相對穩(wěn)健，這讓許多經(jīng)濟學家和投資者猝不及防,。
美國國會預算辦公室表示,，預計在今年剩下的時間里，利率將繼續(xù)上漲,，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長將減緩,；到2024年底，失業(yè)率將達到4.7%,。
今年2月,，該機構(gòu)預計失業(yè)率將躍升至5.1%，而目前該值為3.6%?，F(xiàn)在他們估計,，到今年年底失業(yè)率將升至約4.1%。
由于雇主的雇用需求減少,，預計今年晚些時候消費者支出將有所縮減,，勞動力參與率也會降低。
值得高興的是,，通脹有望下降,，因為美聯(lián)儲采取了措施來抑制物價的上漲——去年6月，美國物價同比漲幅達到40年來最高水平,。美聯(lián)儲試圖通過上調(diào)基準利率來降低通脹,。周三，美聯(lián)儲17個月來第11次上調(diào)關鍵利率,，使其從約5.1%升至5.3%,，達到自2001年以來的最高水平。
美國國會預算辦公室發(fā)布的預測通常比美聯(lián)儲等其他預測機構(gòu)更為悲觀,。這份最新報告承認預測具有不確定性,，稱“預測存在著極大的不確定性,，許多因素都可能會導致截然不同的結(jié)果?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng)）
譯者：中慧言-劉嘉歡
美國國會預算辦公室（Congressional Budget Office）周三報告稱,，今年迄今為止的經(jīng)濟和就業(yè)增長優(yōu)于2月的預期，但其一份最新的展望報告顯示,，部分經(jīng)濟領域?qū)⒃?024年前走弱,。
無黨派機構(gòu)美國國會預算辦公室最新發(fā)布的十年預算與經(jīng)濟展望報告表明，要搞清楚美國在新冠疫情過后將何去何從是極難的,。美聯(lián)儲旨在對抗高通脹的加息并未導致大規(guī)模裁員和經(jīng)濟衰退,，反而使經(jīng)濟增長和招聘需求保持相對穩(wěn)健，這讓許多經(jīng)濟學家和投資者猝不及防,。
美國國會預算辦公室表示,，預計在今年剩下的時間里，利率將繼續(xù)上漲,，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長將減緩,；到2024年底，失業(yè)率將達到4.7%,。
今年2月,，該機構(gòu)預計失業(yè)率將躍升至5.1%,，而目前該值為3.6%?，F(xiàn)在他們估計，到今年年底失業(yè)率將升至約4.1%,。
由于雇主的雇用需求減少,，預計今年晚些時候消費者支出將有所縮減，勞動力參與率也會降低,。
值得高興的是,，通脹有望下降，因為美聯(lián)儲采取了措施來抑制物價的上漲——去年6月,，美國物價同比漲幅達到40年來最高水平,。美聯(lián)儲試圖通過上調(diào)基準利率來降低通脹。周三,，美聯(lián)儲17個月來第11次上調(diào)關鍵利率,，使其從約5.1%升至5.3%，達到自2001年以來的最高水平,。
美國國會預算辦公室發(fā)布的預測通常比美聯(lián)儲等其他預測機構(gòu)更為悲觀,。這份最新報告承認預測具有不確定性，稱“預測存在著極大的不確定性,，許多因素都可能會導致截然不同的結(jié)果,?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng)）
譯者：中慧言-劉嘉歡
The Congressional Budget Office reported Wednesday that economic and job growth so far this year has been stronger than forecast in February, but an updated outlook sees parts of the economy as weakening through 2024.
The latest 10-year budget and economic outlook from the nonpartisan office shows how difficult it is to figure out where the United States is going in the wake of the pandemic. Many economists and investors were caught off guard as Federal Reserve interest rate increases, intended to combat high inflation, have not led to mass layoffs and a recession. Rather, growth and hiring have stayed relatively solid.
The CBO said it expects rates to continue to rise, as well as slower growth in the gross domestic product for the rest of this year and unemployment reaching 4.7% by the end of 2024.
In February, the agency projected that the unemployment rate would jump to 5.1%. It currently stands at 3.6%. The CBO now estimates that rate will end the year at roughly 4.1%.
Consumer spending is expected to flag later this year and labor force participation to decline as employers need fewer workers.
In a bright spot, inflation is expected to decline due to actions by the Fed to tame price increases, which rose at the highest annual pace in four decades in June of last year. The central bank has tried to reduce inflation by raising its benchmark interest rates. The Fed on Wednesday raised its key rate for the 11th time in 17 months, from roughly 5.1% to 5.3%, its highest level since 2001.
The CBO issues projections that are generally more pessimistic than those of other forecasters such as the Fed. The latest report acknowledges that uncertainty, saying “projections are highly uncertain, and many factors could lead to different outcomes.”
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