美國(guó)批發(fā)通脹剛剛創(chuàng)下2.5年來(lái)的最大單月跌幅
Will Daniel
2023-11-17
位于美國(guó)加利福尼亞州圣貝納迪諾的La Reina玉米薄餅工廠(chǎng)正在加工墨西哥玉米薄餅。圖片來(lái)源：WATCHARA PHOMICINDA/MEDIANEWS GROUP/THE PRESS-ENTERPRISE VIA GETTY IMAGES
在持續(xù)數(shù)月的頑固通脹打擊了投資者和消費(fèi)者的情緒之后,，美國(guó)政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)顯示,，物價(jià)可能終于開(kāi)始企穩(wěn)。今年10月的批發(fā)價(jià)格大幅下跌,，創(chuàng)下自2020年4月新冠疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái)的最大單月跌幅（新冠疫情造成強(qiáng)制性旅行限制和企業(yè)關(guān)閉）,。
華爾街很快就為這一消息歡呼雀躍，許多人認(rèn)為這是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）長(zhǎng)達(dá)20個(gè)月的加息行動(dòng)正在緩慢遏制通脹的又一個(gè)跡象,?！拔覀兘裉煊瓉?lái)了更多的金發(fā)女孩?！盩radeStation的全球市場(chǎng)策略主管大衛(wèi)·拉塞爾在談到這些數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)說(shuō),。（“金發(fā)女孩經(jīng)濟(jì)”指增長(zhǎng)進(jìn)入佳境而通脹威脅尚未來(lái)臨的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況——譯注）
美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）于11月15日公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，衡量企業(yè)批發(fā)價(jià)格的工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格指數(shù)（PPI）在10月下降了0.5%,。這遠(yuǎn)低于華爾街對(duì)該指數(shù)上升0.1%的一致預(yù)期,，也遠(yuǎn)低于9月0.4%的漲幅。
10月批發(fā)價(jià)格的下降也使工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格指數(shù)同比通脹率降至1.3%,，而去年同期為8.2%,。剔除波動(dòng)較大的食品和能源價(jià)格的核心工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格指數(shù)通脹率上月也保持不變，而市場(chǎng)一致預(yù)期為上升0.3%,。
AXS Investments的首席執(zhí)行官格雷格·巴蘇克表示：“10月工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)低于預(yù)期,，整體和核心通脹均顯示出華爾街、典型的美國(guó)中產(chǎn)階級(jí),，尤其是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)強(qiáng)烈期望的下降趨勢(shì),。”
批發(fā)價(jià)格變化預(yù)示著消費(fèi)價(jià)格變化
批發(fā)價(jià)格通脹率的下降對(duì)消費(fèi)者來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)好消息,，這是因?yàn)楫?dāng)企業(yè)面臨成本上升時(shí),，消費(fèi)者往往首當(dāng)其沖。正如里士滿(mǎn)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行（Richmond Federal Reserve）在2022年的一篇文章中所解釋的那樣，從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,，消費(fèi)者價(jià)格通脹和批發(fā)價(jià)格通脹“同時(shí)發(fā)生變化”,。
在最新的工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布之前，11月14日公布的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)（CPI）通脹報(bào)告也低于預(yù)期,，導(dǎo)致股市大漲,。巴蘇克稱(chēng)，這兩份通脹報(bào)告應(yīng)該能夠讓美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員在2024年降息,，為所謂的軟著陸（即在不引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的情況下實(shí)現(xiàn)通脹消退）鋪平道路,。
經(jīng)過(guò)多年的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退預(yù)測(cè)，TradeStation的拉塞爾也認(rèn)為,，最糟糕的情況現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)過(guò)去了,。他指出，通脹正在消退,，與此同時(shí),，零售銷(xiāo)售額也超出了華爾街的預(yù)期，10月僅下降0.1%,，而預(yù)期為0.3%,。華爾街的許多人都認(rèn)為，這進(jìn)一步證明美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)實(shí)現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)溫和降溫（一直以來(lái)希望實(shí)現(xiàn)）,。
重要的是,，價(jià)格方面的降溫并沒(méi)有給其他經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)帶來(lái)降溫。衡量紐約州制造業(yè)活動(dòng)的帝國(guó)制造業(yè)調(diào)查指數(shù)（Empire State Manufacturing Survey）在10月攀升了14個(gè)點(diǎn),。該指數(shù)被視為美國(guó)整體制造業(yè)健康狀況的風(fēng)向標(biāo),。這可能是一個(gè)跡象，表明盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的預(yù)測(cè)一直存在,，但許多經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)仍然在繼續(xù)通過(guò)加息而獲得增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力,。“軟著陸正在成形,?！崩麪栒f(shuō)。
“股市唯一合乎邏輯的走向是走高”
對(duì)投資者而言,，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格指數(shù)報(bào)告是一個(gè)好消息,。11月14日，由于消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)降溫,，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)（S&P 500）飆升近2%,。11月15日，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)繼續(xù)上漲,，截至午盤(pán)上漲0.31%,。獨(dú)立顧問(wèn)聯(lián)盟（Independent Advisor Alliance）的首席投資官克里斯·扎卡雷利表示：“目前，通脹正在回落，經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)保持強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng),，因此股市唯一合乎邏輯的走向是走高,?！?/p>
扎卡雷利警告道,，高利率、消費(fèi)者儲(chǔ)蓄減少以及信用卡余額上升都表明經(jīng)濟(jì)依舊面臨衰退的前景,。他說(shuō)：“如果認(rèn)為可以永遠(yuǎn)避免經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，那就太天真了,?！?/p>
然而，這位華爾街資深人士認(rèn)為,，今年投資者的情緒已經(jīng)變得如此消極,，即便是“不那么令人擔(dān)憂(yōu)的數(shù)據(jù)”，比如最新的通脹報(bào)告,，最終也可能引發(fā)股市大幅上漲——“在年底前一路走高”,。
AXS Investments的巴蘇克對(duì)此表示贊同。他說(shuō)：“最新的通脹報(bào)告為那些對(duì)2023年剩余時(shí)間的利率不確定性心存疑慮的投資者提前送上了一份節(jié)日禮物,?！彼J(rèn)為，2024年“市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)前景強(qiáng)勁”,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
在持續(xù)數(shù)月的頑固通脹打擊了投資者和消費(fèi)者的情緒之后,，美國(guó)政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)顯示，物價(jià)可能終于開(kāi)始企穩(wěn),。今年10月的批發(fā)價(jià)格大幅下跌,，創(chuàng)下自2020年4月新冠疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái)的最大單月跌幅（新冠疫情造成強(qiáng)制性旅行限制和企業(yè)關(guān)閉）。
華爾街很快就為這一消息歡呼雀躍,，許多人認(rèn)為這是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）長(zhǎng)達(dá)20個(gè)月的加息行動(dòng)正在緩慢遏制通脹的又一個(gè)跡象,。“我們今天迎來(lái)了更多的金發(fā)女孩,?！盩radeStation的全球市場(chǎng)策略主管大衛(wèi)·拉塞爾在談到這些數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)說(shuō)。（“金發(fā)女孩經(jīng)濟(jì)”指增長(zhǎng)進(jìn)入佳境而通脹威脅尚未來(lái)臨的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況——譯注）
美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）于11月15日公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，衡量企業(yè)批發(fā)價(jià)格的工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格指數(shù)（PPI）在10月下降了0.5%。這遠(yuǎn)低于華爾街對(duì)該指數(shù)上升0.1%的一致預(yù)期,，也遠(yuǎn)低于9月0.4%的漲幅,。
10月批發(fā)價(jià)格的下降也使工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格指數(shù)同比通脹率降至1.3%，而去年同期為8.2%,。剔除波動(dòng)較大的食品和能源價(jià)格的核心工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格指數(shù)通脹率上月也保持不變,，而市場(chǎng)一致預(yù)期為上升0.3%。
AXS Investments的首席執(zhí)行官格雷格·巴蘇克表示：“10月工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)低于預(yù)期,，整體和核心通脹均顯示出華爾街,、典型的美國(guó)中產(chǎn)階級(jí),，尤其是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)強(qiáng)烈期望的下降趨勢(shì),?！?/p>
批發(fā)價(jià)格變化預(yù)示著消費(fèi)價(jià)格變化
批發(fā)價(jià)格通脹率的下降對(duì)消費(fèi)者來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)好消息,，這是因?yàn)楫?dāng)企業(yè)面臨成本上升時(shí),，消費(fèi)者往往首當(dāng)其沖,。正如里士滿(mǎn)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行（Richmond Federal Reserve）在2022年的一篇文章中所解釋的那樣，從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,，消費(fèi)者價(jià)格通脹和批發(fā)價(jià)格通脹“同時(shí)發(fā)生變化”。
在最新的工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布之前,，11月14日公布的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)（CPI）通脹報(bào)告也低于預(yù)期,，導(dǎo)致股市大漲。巴蘇克稱(chēng),，這兩份通脹報(bào)告應(yīng)該能夠讓美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員在2024年降息,，為所謂的軟著陸（即在不引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的情況下實(shí)現(xiàn)通脹消退）鋪平道路。
經(jīng)過(guò)多年的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退預(yù)測(cè),，TradeStation的拉塞爾也認(rèn)為,，最糟糕的情況現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)過(guò)去了。他指出,，通脹正在消退,，與此同時(shí)，零售銷(xiāo)售額也超出了華爾街的預(yù)期,，10月僅下降0.1%,，而預(yù)期為0.3%,。華爾街的許多人都認(rèn)為,，這進(jìn)一步證明美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)實(shí)現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)溫和降溫（一直以來(lái)希望實(shí)現(xiàn)）。
重要的是,，價(jià)格方面的降溫并沒(méi)有給其他經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)帶來(lái)降溫,。衡量紐約州制造業(yè)活動(dòng)的帝國(guó)制造業(yè)調(diào)查指數(shù)（Empire State Manufacturing Survey）在10月攀升了14個(gè)點(diǎn),。該指數(shù)被視為美國(guó)整體制造業(yè)健康狀況的風(fēng)向標(biāo)。這可能是一個(gè)跡象,，表明盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的預(yù)測(cè)一直存在,，但許多經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)仍然在繼續(xù)通過(guò)加息而獲得增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力?！败浿懻诔尚?。”拉塞爾說(shuō),。
“股市唯一合乎邏輯的走向是走高”
對(duì)投資者而言,，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格指數(shù)報(bào)告是一個(gè)好消息。11月14日,，由于消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)降溫,，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)（S&P 500）飆升近2%。11月15日,，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)繼續(xù)上漲，截至午盤(pán)上漲0.31%,。獨(dú)立顧問(wèn)聯(lián)盟（Independent Advisor Alliance）的首席投資官克里斯·扎卡雷利表示：“目前,，通脹正在回落，經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)保持強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng),，因此股市唯一合乎邏輯的走向是走高,。”
扎卡雷利警告道,，高利率,、消費(fèi)者儲(chǔ)蓄減少以及信用卡余額上升都表明經(jīng)濟(jì)依舊面臨衰退的前景。他說(shuō)：“如果認(rèn)為可以永遠(yuǎn)避免經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,，那就太天真了,。”
然而,，這位華爾街資深人士認(rèn)為,，今年投資者的情緒已經(jīng)變得如此消極，即便是“不那么令人擔(dān)憂(yōu)的數(shù)據(jù)”,，比如最新的通脹報(bào)告,，最終也可能引發(fā)股市大幅上漲——“在年底前一路走高”。
AXS Investments的巴蘇克對(duì)此表示贊同,。他說(shuō)：“最新的通脹報(bào)告為那些對(duì)2023年剩余時(shí)間的利率不確定性心存疑慮的投資者提前送上了一份節(jié)日禮物,。”他認(rèn)為,，2024年“市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)前景強(qiáng)勁”,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
After months and months of stubborn inflation crushing the mood of investors and consumers alike, government data show prices may finally be stabilizing. Wholesale prices fell sharply in October, their largest monthly decline since COVID-19 forced travel restrictions and business closures in April 2020.
Wall Street was quick to celebrate the news, with many arguing it’s another sign that the Federal Reserve’s 20-month-long interest rate hiking campaign is slowly taming inflation. “We got more Goldilocks today,” David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said of the data.
The producer price index (PPI), which measures wholesale prices for businesses, fell 0.5% in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on November 15. That was well short of Wall Street’s consensus expectations for a 0.1% jump in the index, and a sharp drop from September’s 0.4% rise.
The dip in wholesale prices in October brought the year-over-year PPI inflation rate down to just 1.3% as well, compared to 8.2% a year ago. And core PPI inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, also went unchanged last month versus consensus expectations for a 0.3% rise.
“October’s PPI data came in lower than anticipated, with both headline and core inflation exhibiting the downward trajectory strongly desired by Wall Street, Main Street and, importantly, the Fed,” Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments, said.
Wholesale price changes offer a preview of consumer prices
The drop in wholesale price inflation is good news for consumers because they often bear the brunt of the pain when businesses face higher costs. As the Richmond Federal Reserve explained in a 2022 article, over the long term, consumer price inflation and wholesale price inflation “move together.”
The latest PPI data also follows a cooler-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) inflation report on November 14, which led the stock market to surge. The two inflation reports should enable Fed officials to lower interest rates in 2024, Bassuk said, paving the way for a so-called soft landing—when inflation fades without sparking a recession.
After years of recession forecasts, TradeStation’s Russell also believes that the worst case scenarios are now behind us. He noted that inflation is fading at the same time as retail sales beat Wall Street’s forecasts, falling just 0.1% compared to the expected 0.3% in October. That’s further evidence of the gentle cooling in the economy the Fed has been hoping to achieve, according to many on Wall Street.
Importantly, cooling on the price front isn’t chilling other parts of the economy. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey—which measures manufacturing activity in New York state and is seen as a proxy for the health of the broader U.S. manufacturing industry—climbed 14 points in October. It could be a sign that the many sectors of the economy continue to power through higher interest rates despite consistent recession predictions. “The soft landing is taking shape,” Russell said.
“The only logical direction for stocks is higher”
For investors, the PPI report is great news. After surging nearly 2% on November 14 due to the cool CPI report, the S&P 500 continued to rise on November 15, jumping 0.31% by midday. “Inflation—for now —is coming back down and the economy—for now—continues to grow at a robust pace, so the only logical direction for stocks is higher,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, said.
Zaccarelli warned that high interest rates, fading consumer savings, and rising credit card balances are all signs that the economy still faces the prospect of recession. “It would be na?ve to assume that a recession can be forestalled forever,” he said.
However, the Wall Street veteran argued that investors’ sentiment has become so negative this year that even “l(fā)ess worse than feared data,” like the latest inflation reports, could end up sparking a big run in stocks—“a race higher into year end.”
AXS Investments’ Bassuk agreed with the sentiment. “The latest inflation reports delivered an early holiday present for investors who have been skittish about interest rate uncertainty for the balance of 2023,” he said, arguing that 2024 has “robust prospects for market growth.”
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