
自上世紀80年代以來,,美國每年平均發(fā)生約8次嚴重氣候事件,,每次造成的損失至少高達10億美元,。過去5年,嚴重氣候事件的數(shù)量增加到18次,,而2023年已經(jīng)發(fā)生了23次,。這意味著,房地產(chǎn)市場面臨著一個影響規(guī)模至少達到230億美元的問題,,而且隨著氣候變化持續(xù)惡化,,問題只會變得更嚴重。(請記?。簱?jù)科學家估計,,今年夏季的每日氣溫創(chuàng)下至少100,000年來的最高紀錄。)
但聯(lián)邦和地方政府以及私營公司正在想方設法減少氣候事件的風險及其財務影響,。信息,、分析與數(shù)據(jù)賦能服務提供商CoreLogic首席創(chuàng)新官約翰·羅杰斯表示,氣候變化可能被認為是一個抽象的,、被過度政治化的問題,,導致許多業(yè)主不關注和忽視氣候問題。而且他認同情況只會變得更糟糕這一觀點,。羅杰斯表示:“可惜,,嚴重氣候事件可能變得更嚴重,,發(fā)生頻率更高?!?/p>
業(yè)主最終將從許多方面付出代價,。事實上,保險商已經(jīng)從他們所說的“富有挑戰(zhàn)的”市場中逃離,。佛羅里達州和加州就是最好的例子,。據(jù)《財富》雜志之前報道,在這兩個州,,保險公司紛紛逃離或者減少了在當?shù)氐臉I(yè)務,。
羅杰斯認為,這種趨勢的背后有多個因素在發(fā)揮作用,,但在佛羅里達州有一個重要的因素是,,颶風發(fā)生的頻率越來越高且日益嚴重。加州的情況類似,,有一些保險公司設定了該州新保單的上限,,或者不再提供新保單。
這種情況加劇了兩個州與房地產(chǎn)有關的危機,。在疫情驅(qū)動的房地產(chǎn)繁榮期間,,這兩個州的房價暴漲,導致許多購房人被擠出市場,。事實上,,購房人對于保險可用性和保險成本的擔憂,在一定程度上降低了這兩個州的新房銷售速度,。
羅杰斯表示,,特別是根據(jù)一個衡量氣候變化對房地產(chǎn)市場的實際影響的財務指標,他認為聯(lián)邦和地方政府以及私營公司的投資“確實令人鼓舞”,。在接受我們采訪時,,羅杰斯剛剛結(jié)束了在紐約的會議。他表示,,形勢已經(jīng)發(fā)生變化,,人們從“談論氣候變化,變成了在建房供應鏈采取實際行動,,以及建設更具有氣候韌性的住宅,。”
保險公司如何才能回到佛羅里達州和加州
佛羅里達州和加州正在做出一些改變,。例如,,佛羅里達州發(fā)布了一項新法令,要求某些地區(qū)的業(yè)主建設一道五英尺高的防波堤用來保護房屋。羅杰斯表示:“政府的激勵措施和政府投資,,有助于改變市場動態(tài),,并吸引保險公司重回佛羅里達?!?/p>
羅杰斯指出,,在野火問題嚴重的加州,降低保費有12個先決條件,,包括清理木質(zhì)平臺下的灌木,,在距離房子12英尺的范圍內(nèi)安裝柵欄等。
然而,,問題不止存在于加州和佛羅里達州,。羅杰斯表示,想想美國各地的冬季暴風雪,。雖然這些事件發(fā)生的頻率較低,,但它們的影響卻變得日益嚴重。
德克薩斯州的情況
暴風雪影響的區(qū)域,,并不具備承受災難性暴風雪的韌性,。以德克薩斯州為例,2021年2月,,德州氣溫創(chuàng)歷史新低,,公路因被冰雪覆蓋無法通行。此外,,該州的電網(wǎng)運營商無法控制電力供應,,導致該州持續(xù)數(shù)日停電,。無數(shù)住宅被毀,,造成的經(jīng)濟損失預計高達800億至1,300億美元。羅杰斯表示:“從業(yè)主的角度,我們必須樹立需要保護自己的住宅這種意識,,并加深理解?!?/p>
政府和私營公司可在這方面發(fā)揮作用,。美國政府和聯(lián)邦機構(gòu)已經(jīng)在采取措施減少住宅的碳排放和提高住宅韌性,例如《通脹削減法案》(Inflation Reduction Act)以及聯(lián)邦應急管理署(Federal Emergency Management Agency,,F(xiàn)EMA)最近宣布的30億美元減緩氣候變化的項目,。
提高住宅的韌性
CoreLogic等公司也在采取行動。CoreLogic開發(fā)的一款氣候風險分析模型,,可幫助公司衡量,、模擬和減緩氣候變化對美國每一套住宅的財務影響。他表示,提供一個簡單的財務指標,,可以幫助私營公司和聯(lián)邦機構(gòu)確定一個關注的焦點,,同時改變?nèi)藗兣c氣候變化有關的行為和思維,最終影響政策制定,。羅杰斯希望該模型能夠刺激那些對經(jīng)濟損失敏感的公司行動起來,。
他說道:“只要你能用財務指標衡量某件事,你會驚訝地看到整個行業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)變,?!彼麖娬{(diào)自己的目標是保護住宅所有權,以及該類資產(chǎn)的財務穩(wěn)定性,。CoreLogic的氣候風險分析模型已經(jīng)幫助美聯(lián)儲董事會對美國前六大銀行面臨的氣候風險進行評估,。
羅杰斯表示,為提高住宅韌性投入的每1美元,,其價值相當于在氣候事件發(fā)生后的6美元災后重建投資,。提高住宅韌性從經(jīng)濟的角度是合理的。根據(jù)聯(lián)邦應急管理署的規(guī)定,,提高住宅韌性可能意味著證明住宅建設符合本地建筑安全準則,,在開始房屋修繕項目之前向本地建筑安全部門報備,抬高公用設施(如配電板)的位置并加以固定,,或通過安裝水位報警器或工作泵等減少地下室被洪水淹沒的風險等,。
除了保證住宅物理上的韌性外,無論你所在的地區(qū)是否屬于高洪水風險區(qū),,你還可以甚至應該購買洪水險,。
購買保險具有前所未有的重要性。據(jù)CoreLogic計算,,美國最容易受到氣候風險影響的前10個縣,,有7個縣的房地產(chǎn)正在升值。邁阿密戴德縣是最火爆的房地產(chǎn)市場之一,,但由于颶風和洪水多發(fā),,當?shù)匾彩敲绹L險最高的房地產(chǎn)市場。居民需要解決方案,,可以先從政府,、私營公司甚至風險投資者投入資金入手,以確保建設的房屋能夠承受自然災害的影響,。
羅杰斯表示:“住宅投資是大多數(shù)人最大的一筆投資,,也是他們?nèi)松凶钪匾耐顿Y。作為業(yè)主,,我希望知道該如何保護自己最大規(guī)模的資產(chǎn),?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
自上世紀80年代以來,美國每年平均發(fā)生約8次嚴重氣候事件,,每次造成的損失至少高達10億美元,。過去5年,嚴重氣候事件的數(shù)量增加到18次,,而2023年已經(jīng)發(fā)生了23次,。這意味著,房地產(chǎn)市場面臨著一個影響規(guī)模至少達到230億美元的問題,,而且隨著氣候變化持續(xù)惡化,,問題只會變得更嚴重。(請記?。簱?jù)科學家估計,,今年夏季的每日氣溫創(chuàng)下至少100,000年來的最高紀錄。)
但聯(lián)邦和地方政府以及私營公司正在想方設法減少氣候事件的風險及其財務影響,。信息,、分析與數(shù)據(jù)賦能服務提供商CoreLogic首席創(chuàng)新官約翰·羅杰斯表示,氣候變化可能被認為是一個抽象的,、被過度政治化的問題,,導致許多業(yè)主不關注和忽視氣候問題。而且他認同情況只會變得更糟糕這一觀點,。羅杰斯表示:“可惜,,嚴重氣候事件可能變得更嚴重,發(fā)生頻率更高,?!?/p>
業(yè)主最終將從許多方面付出代價。事實上,,保險商已經(jīng)從他們所說的“富有挑戰(zhàn)的”市場中逃離,。佛羅里達州和加州就是最好的例子。據(jù)《財富》雜志之前報道,,在這兩個州,,保險公司紛紛逃離或者減少了在當?shù)氐臉I(yè)務。
羅杰斯認為,,這種趨勢的背后有多個因素在發(fā)揮作用,,但在佛羅里達州有一個重要的因素是,颶風發(fā)生的頻率越來越高且日益嚴重,。加州的情況類似,有一些保險公司設定了該州新保單的上限,,或者不再提供新保單,。
這種情況加劇了兩個州與房地產(chǎn)有關的危機。在疫情驅(qū)動的房地產(chǎn)繁榮期間,這兩個州的房價暴漲,,導致許多購房人被擠出市場,。事實上,購房人對于保險可用性和保險成本的擔憂,,在一定程度上降低了這兩個州的新房銷售速度,。
羅杰斯表示,特別是根據(jù)一個衡量氣候變化對房地產(chǎn)市場的實際影響的財務指標,,他認為聯(lián)邦和地方政府以及私營公司的投資“確實令人鼓舞”,。在接受我們采訪時,羅杰斯剛剛結(jié)束了在紐約的會議,。他表示,,形勢已經(jīng)發(fā)生變化,人們從“談論氣候變化,,變成了在建房供應鏈采取實際行動,,以及建設更具有氣候韌性的住宅?!?/p>
保險公司如何才能回到佛羅里達州和加州
佛羅里達州和加州正在做出一些改變,。例如,佛羅里達州發(fā)布了一項新法令,,要求某些地區(qū)的業(yè)主建設一道五英尺高的防波堤用來保護房屋,。羅杰斯表示:“政府的激勵措施和政府投資,有助于改變市場動態(tài),,并吸引保險公司重回佛羅里達,。”
羅杰斯指出,,在野火問題嚴重的加州,,降低保費有12個先決條件,包括清理木質(zhì)平臺下的灌木,,在距離房子12英尺的范圍內(nèi)安裝柵欄等,。
然而,問題不止存在于加州和佛羅里達州,。羅杰斯表示,,想想美國各地的冬季暴風雪。雖然這些事件發(fā)生的頻率較低,,但它們的影響卻變得日益嚴重,。
德克薩斯州的情況
暴風雪影響的區(qū)域,并不具備承受災難性暴風雪的韌性,。以德克薩斯州為例,,2021年2月,,德州氣溫創(chuàng)歷史新低,公路因被冰雪覆蓋無法通行,。此外,,該州的電網(wǎng)運營商無法控制電力供應,導致該州持續(xù)數(shù)日停電,。無數(shù)住宅被毀,,造成的經(jīng)濟損失預計高達800億至1,300億美元。羅杰斯表示:“從業(yè)主的角度,,我們必須樹立需要保護自己的住宅這種意識,,并加深理解?!?/p>
政府和私營公司可在這方面發(fā)揮作用,。美國政府和聯(lián)邦機構(gòu)已經(jīng)在采取措施減少住宅的碳排放和提高住宅韌性,例如《通脹削減法案》(Inflation Reduction Act)以及聯(lián)邦應急管理署(Federal Emergency Management Agency,,F(xiàn)EMA)最近宣布的30億美元減緩氣候變化的項目,。
提高住宅的韌性
CoreLogic等公司也在采取行動。CoreLogic開發(fā)的一款氣候風險分析模型,,可幫助公司衡量,、模擬和減緩氣候變化對美國每一套住宅的財務影響。他表示,,提供一個簡單的財務指標,,可以幫助私營公司和聯(lián)邦機構(gòu)確定一個關注的焦點,同時改變?nèi)藗兣c氣候變化有關的行為和思維,,最終影響政策制定,。羅杰斯希望該模型能夠刺激那些對經(jīng)濟損失敏感的公司行動起來。
他說道:“只要你能用財務指標衡量某件事,,你會驚訝地看到整個行業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)變,。”他強調(diào)自己的目標是保護住宅所有權,,以及該類資產(chǎn)的財務穩(wěn)定性,。CoreLogic的氣候風險分析模型已經(jīng)幫助美聯(lián)儲董事會對美國前六大銀行面臨的氣候風險進行評估。
羅杰斯表示,,為提高住宅韌性投入的每1美元,,其價值相當于在氣候事件發(fā)生后的6美元災后重建投資。提高住宅韌性從經(jīng)濟的角度是合理的,。根據(jù)聯(lián)邦應急管理署的規(guī)定,,提高住宅韌性可能意味著證明住宅建設符合本地建筑安全準則,在開始房屋修繕項目之前向本地建筑安全部門報備,,抬高公用設施(如配電板)的位置并加以固定,,或通過安裝水位報警器或工作泵等減少地下室被洪水淹沒的風險等,。
除了保證住宅物理上的韌性外,,無論你所在的地區(qū)是否屬于高洪水風險區(qū),,你還可以甚至應該購買洪水險。
購買保險具有前所未有的重要性,。據(jù)CoreLogic計算,,美國最容易受到氣候風險影響的前10個縣,有7個縣的房地產(chǎn)正在升值,。邁阿密戴德縣是最火爆的房地產(chǎn)市場之一,,但由于颶風和洪水多發(fā),當?shù)匾彩敲绹L險最高的房地產(chǎn)市場,。居民需要解決方案,,可以先從政府、私營公司甚至風險投資者投入資金入手,,以確保建設的房屋能夠承受自然災害的影響,。
羅杰斯表示:“住宅投資是大多數(shù)人最大的一筆投資,也是他們?nèi)松凶钪匾耐顿Y,。作為業(yè)主,,我希望知道該如何保護自己最大規(guī)模的資產(chǎn)?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
Since the 1980s, the U.S. averaged around eight major weather events per year that caused at least $1 billion in damage. In the past five years, that shot up to 18—and 2023 has seen 23 of them already. That means the housing market has a $23 billion problem, at least, and it’s only set to grow as the climate continues to change. (Remember: this summer was the hottest daily temperature in at least 100,000 years, scientists estimate.)
But federal and local governments, as well as private companies, are working on ways to mitigate those risks and their financial impacts. Climate change can come across as abstract and over-politicized, causing many homeowners to tune out and ignore climate concerns, says John Rogers, chief innovation officer at CoreLogic, an information, analytics, and data-enabled services provider. And he agrees that it is just going to get worse. “The severity and frequency of major weather events, unfortunately, is likely to go up,” says Rogers.
Homeowners end up paying the price—in more ways than one. In fact, insurers are already fleeing what they call “challenging” markets. There are no better examples than Florida and California, where insurance companies are either pulling out of the states completely or reducing their presence, as Fortune previously reported.
There are several factors at play, but the increasing frequency and intensity of hurricanes is a big one in Florida, Rogers says. California’s not too far off, with some insurance companies putting a cap on new policies or no longer writing new policies in the state.
That’s exacerbating housing-related crises in the states, both of which saw their home prices rise substantially in the pandemic-driven housing boom, pricing out many buyers. In fact, buyers’ concerns over insurance availability and costs are somewhat slowing new home sales in Florida and California.
Still, Rogers says what he’s seeing in terms of investment by federal and local governments, along with private companies is “really encouraging,” particularly when given a financial metric to encompass the real impact of climate change on the housing market. At the time of our interview, Rogers had just come back from a conference in New York. He says things have changed, and there’s movement from “talking about climate change to real action across the supply chain of building homes, and also making homes more resilient.”
How insurance can come back to Florida and California
The changes afoot include, for example, a new ordinance requires homeowners in certain areas of Florida to build a five-foot seawall to protect the home, for one. “Incentives from the government and investment from the government will help change the dynamics of this market and bring insurance back into Florida,” Rogers says.
In California, where wildfires are a major concern, there are 12 prerequisites to reduce premiums—everything from taking brush out from underneath a deck, to having a fence 12 feet away from the house, Rogers notes.
Nevertheless, the issues extend far beyond California and Florida. Think about winter storms across the country, Roger says. Their frequency might be fairly low, but their impact is definitely becoming more severe.
The case of Texas
And they’re affecting regions that weren’t built to be resilient in the face of catastrophic storms. Take Texas. In February 2021, the state faced record-low temperatures, roads were impossible to travel along because of snow and ice, and the state’s electric grid operator lost control of the power supply, resulting in blackouts that lasted days. Countless homes were damaged, causing an estimated $80 billion to $130 billion in damage. “From a homeowner’s perspective, we need to be aware and understand that we need to protect our home,” says Rogers.
That’s where the government and private companies come in. The U.S. government and federal agencies are already taking steps to reduce carbon emissions and improve the resiliency of homes—think the Inflation Reduction Act and the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) recently announced $3 billion mitigation project.
Making homes resilient
Businesses like CoreLogic are also jumping on board. CoreLogic developed a climate risk analytics model which helps companies measure, model, and mitigate the financial impacts of climate change on every single property in the United States. Providing a simple financial metric can help provide a focus for private companies and federal agencies, while changing the behavior and mindset surrounding climate change, to shape policy, he says. Rogers hopes it helps spur companies with an ear for anything involving lost money to step up.
“As soon as you can financially measure something, it’s amazing how the industry leans in,” he says, stressing his goal of protecting homeownership and the financial stability of the asset class. CoreLogic’s climate risk analytics is already supporting the Federal Reserve Board in assessing the climate risks facing the top six banks in the country.
Every $1 invested in making a home more resilient is the equivalent of a $6 disaster recovery investment after a weather event, says Rogers. Economically, it makes sense to invest in making homes more resilient. That can mean verifying your home is built in compliance with local building safety codes, checking with your local building safety department before beginning home repairs or improvement projects, elevating and anchoring utilities (like electrical panels), or reducing basement flooding risks by installing a water alarm or a working pump, according to FEMA.
Aside from physically making your home resilient, you can, and likely should, get flood insurance whether you’re in a high-risk flood zone or not.
Doing so has never been more critical. Seven of the top 10 counties in the country that are most vulnerable to climate risk are appreciating in value, according to CoreLogic’s calculations. Miami-Dade County is one of the hottest housing markets, and it’s also the riskiest, due to hurricanes and floods. Residents need solutions, and that could start with funding—from the government, private companies, and even venture capitalists—to ensure homes are built to withstand natural disasters.
“It’s the biggest investment for most people, it’s the biggest investment of their lives,” says Rogers. “As a homeowner, I would like to know what I can do to protect my biggest asset.”