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樓市出現(xiàn)縮水式通脹,,新房面積越來越小

Alena Botros
2024-03-14

縮水式通脹蔓延到了房地產(chǎn)市場。

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圖片來源:GETTY IMAGES

雖然巨型豪宅并沒有消失,,但房子面積確實在縮水,。人口普查數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2023年,,中位數(shù)新房面積降至十多年來的最低水平,。2022年至2023年,中位數(shù)獨棟住宅面積縮小約4%,,降至自2010年以來的最低水平,。

或許入門級住宅將不復(fù)存在。大約一年前,,房地產(chǎn)市場數(shù)據(jù)公司Zonda的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阿里·沃爾夫?qū)ξ冶硎荆?00,000美元的入門級住宅將會消失,。全美300,000美元以下的新房項目占比下降。這背后的原因需要追溯到幾年前,。

新冠疫情刺激房地產(chǎn)市場蓬勃發(fā)展,。人們居家辦公,需要更多的空間,,而且他們可以按照自己的意愿搬家,。史上最低的抵押貸款利率也促進(jìn)了市場的發(fā)展。需求帶動房價上漲,,而且不久之后,,受到整體經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的影響,抵押貸款利率漲至二十多年的最高水平(使建筑成本和土地價值上漲),??傊捎诜课菘韶?fù)擔(dān)性下降,,房屋建筑商開始建設(shè)小戶型住宅,。

建筑商無法改變土地成本,、建筑成本,或者房價上漲的幅度,,但他們能夠改變房屋面積,。他們的做法并非重新建設(shè)300,000美元的入門級住宅。沃爾夫的團(tuán)隊甚至把入門級住宅定義為400,000美元以下的住宅,。

于是就發(fā)生了縮水式通脹:房屋面積縮水,,但房價卻沒有真正下降。需要說明的是,,過去兩年,,中位數(shù)新房售價小幅下降:2022年10月房價最高時為496,800美元,到今年1月降至420,700美元,,但有許多因素導(dǎo)致房價下降,,其中一個因素就是房屋面積變小。更不用說,,根據(jù)Zonda的數(shù)據(jù),,從2018年開始的近四年間,新房價格持續(xù)上漲,,而當(dāng)時房屋面積在五年期限內(nèi)已經(jīng)開始縮水,。從2023年12月到今年1月,新房中位數(shù)售價實際上呈上漲趨勢,,從413,000美元上漲到420,700美元,,這或許意味著在過去兩年,房價的下行趨勢只是臨時現(xiàn)象,。

2023年5月,,《財富》雜志報道稱,由于房屋可負(fù)擔(dān)性危機,,建筑商別無選擇,,只能建設(shè)面積更小的住宅。當(dāng)時,,約翰·伯恩斯研究咨詢公司(John Burns Research and Consulting)的建筑產(chǎn)品研究高級副總裁馬特·桑德斯告訴《財富》雜志:“建筑商確實在積極解決可負(fù)擔(dān)性危機,,他們選擇的一個主要手段是縮小房屋面積?!?/p>

然而,,桑德斯的研究根據(jù)對建筑商的年度調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),這并不是統(tǒng)一縮小面積,,而是房屋內(nèi)部空間的權(quán)衡取舍,。廚房和一層戶外空間或后院,似乎比次臥或客房更加重要。桑德斯解釋道,,這種趨勢可以追溯到新冠疫情之前,但因為疫情而加快,,而且隨著時間推移,,這種趨勢會持續(xù)下去,因為大約一半的受訪者預(yù)計明年新房的面積會變得越來越小,。他的團(tuán)隊預(yù)測,,2023年新建獨棟住宅的平均面積縮小了約3%,今年將縮水2%,。

三個多月后,,《財富》雜志報道稱,建筑商再次通過建造更小的住宅,,解決房屋可負(fù)擔(dān)性問題,。來自Zonda的沃爾夫?qū)Α敦敻弧冯s志表示,在2018年8月至2023年8月期間,,美國的新房面積從2,681平方英尺(約249.07平方米)下降到2,420平方英尺(約224.83平方米),,在五年內(nèi)下降了10%。

她說:“建筑商日益意識到當(dāng)前可負(fù)擔(dān)性危機的嚴(yán)重程度,,要想繼續(xù)成功,,他們必須有所作為。他們正在試圖通過縮小房屋整體面積,,幫助降低總體房價,。”

Livabl by Zonda的一項調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),,關(guān)于是否會改變產(chǎn)品以降低成本和售價,,建筑商排在第一位的回答是建設(shè)面積更小的房屋。與桑德斯一樣,,沃爾夫提到她的團(tuán)隊認(rèn)為這是“合適的面積”,,因為建筑商正在想方設(shè)法削減無用的空間。這種趨勢在新冠疫情之前就已經(jīng)出現(xiàn),,只是疫情期間曾經(jīng)有一小段時間,,建筑商們會建設(shè)面積略大的住宅,以滿足人們的需求,。

沃爾夫說:“在新冠疫情之前,,房屋總體面積就已經(jīng)開始縮小,所以這實際上是延續(xù)了先前的趨勢,。這是因為,,早在疫情之前,我們就擔(dān)心可負(fù)擔(dān)性問題,直到今天,,這仍然是建筑商們關(guān)注的焦點,。”(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

雖然巨型豪宅并沒有消失,,但房子面積確實在縮水,。人口普查數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2023年,,中位數(shù)新房面積降至十多年來的最低水平,。2022年至2023年,中位數(shù)獨棟住宅面積縮小約4%,,降至自2010年以來的最低水平,。

或許入門級住宅將不復(fù)存在。大約一年前,,房地產(chǎn)市場數(shù)據(jù)公司Zonda的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阿里·沃爾夫?qū)ξ冶硎荆?00,000美元的入門級住宅將會消失,。全美300,000美元以下的新房項目占比下降。這背后的原因需要追溯到幾年前,。

新冠疫情刺激房地產(chǎn)市場蓬勃發(fā)展,。人們居家辦公,需要更多的空間,,而且他們可以按照自己的意愿搬家,。史上最低的抵押貸款利率也促進(jìn)了市場的發(fā)展。需求帶動房價上漲,,而且不久之后,,受到整體經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的影響,抵押貸款利率漲至二十多年的最高水平(使建筑成本和土地價值上漲),??傊捎诜课菘韶?fù)擔(dān)性下降,,房屋建筑商開始建設(shè)小戶型住宅,。

建筑商無法改變土地成本、建筑成本,,或者房價上漲的幅度,,但他們能夠改變房屋面積。他們的做法并非重新建設(shè)300,000美元的入門級住宅,。沃爾夫的團(tuán)隊甚至把入門級住宅定義為400,000美元以下的住宅,。

于是就發(fā)生了縮水式通脹:房屋面積縮水,但房價卻沒有真正下降,。需要說明的是,,過去兩年,,中位數(shù)新房售價小幅下降:2022年10月房價最高時為496,800美元,到今年1月降至420,700美元,,但有許多因素導(dǎo)致房價下降,,其中一個因素就是房屋面積變小。更不用說,,根據(jù)Zonda的數(shù)據(jù),,從2018年開始的近四年間,新房價格持續(xù)上漲,,而當(dāng)時房屋面積在五年期限內(nèi)已經(jīng)開始縮水。從2023年12月到今年1月,,新房中位數(shù)售價實際上呈上漲趨勢,,從413,000美元上漲到420,700美元,這或許意味著在過去兩年,,房價的下行趨勢只是臨時現(xiàn)象,。

2023年5月,《財富》雜志報道稱,,由于房屋可負(fù)擔(dān)性危機,,建筑商別無選擇,只能建設(shè)面積更小的住宅,。當(dāng)時,,約翰·伯恩斯研究咨詢公司(John Burns Research and Consulting)的建筑產(chǎn)品研究高級副總裁馬特·桑德斯告訴《財富》雜志:“建筑商確實在積極解決可負(fù)擔(dān)性危機,他們選擇的一個主要手段是縮小房屋面積,?!?/p>

然而,桑德斯的研究根據(jù)對建筑商的年度調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),,這并不是統(tǒng)一縮小面積,,而是房屋內(nèi)部空間的權(quán)衡取舍。廚房和一層戶外空間或后院,,似乎比次臥或客房更加重要,。桑德斯解釋道,這種趨勢可以追溯到新冠疫情之前,,但因為疫情而加快,,而且隨著時間推移,這種趨勢會持續(xù)下去,,因為大約一半的受訪者預(yù)計明年新房的面積會變得越來越小,。他的團(tuán)隊預(yù)測,2023年新建獨棟住宅的平均面積縮小了約3%,,今年將縮水2%,。

三個多月后,,《財富》雜志報道稱,建筑商再次通過建造更小的住宅,,解決房屋可負(fù)擔(dān)性問題,。來自Zonda的沃爾夫?qū)Α敦敻弧冯s志表示,在2018年8月至2023年8月期間,,美國的新房面積從2,681平方英尺(約249.07平方米)下降到2,420平方英尺(約224.83平方米),,在五年內(nèi)下降了10%。

她說:“建筑商日益意識到當(dāng)前可負(fù)擔(dān)性危機的嚴(yán)重程度,,要想繼續(xù)成功,,他們必須有所作為。他們正在試圖通過縮小房屋整體面積,,幫助降低總體房價,。”

Livabl by Zonda的一項調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),,關(guān)于是否會改變產(chǎn)品以降低成本和售價,,建筑商排在第一位的回答是建設(shè)面積更小的房屋。與桑德斯一樣,,沃爾夫提到她的團(tuán)隊認(rèn)為這是“合適的面積”,,因為建筑商正在想方設(shè)法削減無用的空間。這種趨勢在新冠疫情之前就已經(jīng)出現(xiàn),,只是疫情期間曾經(jīng)有一小段時間,,建筑商們會建設(shè)面積略大的住宅,以滿足人們的需求,。

沃爾夫說:“在新冠疫情之前,,房屋總體面積就已經(jīng)開始縮小,所以這實際上是延續(xù)了先前的趨勢,。這是因為,,早在疫情之前,我們就擔(dān)心可負(fù)擔(dān)性問題,,直到今天,,這仍然是建筑商們關(guān)注的焦點?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

The McMansion isn’t dead yet, but homes are shrinking. Last year the median new-home size fell to its lowest point in more than a decade, census data shows. The median single-family home size dropped roughly 4% between 2022 and 2023; it hasn’t been that small since 2010.

Maybe it’s the starter home that’s dead. Almost a year ago, Ali Wolf, chief economist at the housing-market data company Zonda, told me the $300,000 starter home was going extinct. The share of new-home projects under $300,000 was declining all across the country. We’ve got to go back a few years to understand why that is.

The pandemic fueled a housing boom. People were working from home and wanted more space, and they could move wherever they wanted. Historically low mortgage rates helped, too. Home prices skyrocketed in light of demand, and not too long after, mortgage rates reached a more than two-decade high as a result of surrounding economic conditions (which sent the cost of building and land values up, too). That’s all to say, housing affordability has deteriorated—so homebuilders are building smaller homes.

Builders can’t change the cost of land, or the cost to build, or how much home prices have gone up, but they can change home sizes. But it’s not really bringing back the $300,000 starter home. Wolf’s team has even changed their definition of entry-level to under $400,000.

That’s where shrinkflation comes in: Homes are shrinking, but prices aren’t really coming down. To be clear, the median sales price for new houses has fallen slightly over the past two years—at its peak in October 2022, it was $496,800, and as of January, it was $420,700—but there’s likely many factors at play, and smaller homes could be just one of them. Not to mention, new-home prices rose for roughly four years beginning in 2018, when home sizes started shrinking over a five-year period, per Zonda data. And from December of last year to January, the median sales price for new homes actually went up, from $413,000 to $420,700—perhaps a signal the downward trend in pricing over the past two years was temporary.

In May of 2023, Fortune reported that builders had no choice but to build smaller homes because of how unaffordable housing had become. “There’s really this active response by the builders to address these affordability concerns head-on, and one of the main kind of levers that they’re pulling is reducing home square footage,” Matt Saunders, senior vice president of building products research at John Burns Research and Consulting, told Fortune at the time.

However, Saunders’s research, based on an annual survey of architects, found it wasn’t a uniform reduction but rather a tradeoff within the home. Kitchens and ground-floor outdoor space, or backyards, were deemed more important than secondary bedrooms, or guest rooms. Saunders explained it was a trend that predated the pandemic, but accelerated with it—and would continue as time went on given that almost half of the survey’s respondents anticipated that new homes would be even smaller in square footage the next year. His team forecast that the average square footage for new single-family homes would decline by roughly 3% last year, and 2% this year.

More than three months later, Fortune reported builders were yet again solving for affordability constraints by building smaller homes. Zonda’s Wolf told Fortune that between August 2018 and August 2023, new homes across the country fell from 2,681 square feet to 2,420 square feet—a 10% reduction in five years.

“Builders have become increasingly aware of how bad affordability challenges are today and that they need to do something to continue to be successful,” she said. “And in this case, they’re trying to lower the overall home size to help lower the overall home price.”

A Livabl by Zonda survey found the number one answer builders gave in response to whether they were changing their product to lower costs and sales price, was yes, with smaller homes. Not unlike Saunders, Wolf mentioned her team viewed it as “right-sizing,” in that builders were looking for dead space to cut. And again, this was a pre-pandemic trend, although during the pandemic, there was a period of time when builders built slightly larger homes since that’s what people wanted.

“We were already starting to have a decline in overall home size going into the pandemic, and so this is really picking up where we left off,” Wolf said. “And that’s because even before the pandemic, we were concerned about affordability, and that’s still builders’ focus today.”

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