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富國(guó)銀行:美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)是“披著羊皮的狼”

JASON MA
2024-04-30

美國(guó)人依舊在以更快的速度消費(fèi)。

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美國(guó)第一季度的GDP明顯減速,,遠(yuǎn)不及預(yù)期,這在華爾街引起了對(duì)滯脹的恐慌,。

富國(guó)銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在上周四發(fā)布了一篇報(bào)告,,名為《披著羊皮的狼:GDP疲軟掩蓋了消費(fèi)激增》(Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing: Soft GDP Hides Surging Spending)。該報(bào)告指出,,1.6%的整體GDP增長(zhǎng)率受到了波動(dòng)因素的影響,,如貿(mào)易逆差擴(kuò)大和庫(kù)存補(bǔ)充速度放緩等,,這些因素掩蓋了消費(fèi)者需求依舊強(qiáng)勁的事實(shí)。

這份報(bào)告稱,,消費(fèi)者的商品支出確實(shí)在減少,,而且GDP報(bào)告顯示大宗耐用品支出以每年1.2%的速度收縮。但這被服務(wù)支出激增所抵消,。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家蒂姆·昆蘭和香儂·西里·格倫寫道:“就像棒球比賽后段的救援投手一樣,,第一季度的服務(wù)支出迅速增長(zhǎng),年增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到4.0%,,這是自2021年在刺激政策推動(dòng)下消費(fèi)激增以來(lái),,消費(fèi)者服務(wù)支出的最快漲幅?!?/p>

他們補(bǔ)充道,,除了2020年和2021年疫情導(dǎo)致的封鎖和重啟使數(shù)據(jù)失真以外,在過(guò)去二十年服務(wù)支出增長(zhǎng)率只有三次超過(guò)4%,。其中2014年一次,,2004年兩次。

事實(shí)上,,服務(wù)業(yè)需求依舊強(qiáng)勁,,服務(wù)業(yè)價(jià)格上漲5.1%,遠(yuǎn)高于3.7%的廣義核心通脹率,,而后者較前一個(gè)季度已經(jīng)有所上漲,。

與此同時(shí),富國(guó)銀行的報(bào)告指出,,第一季度實(shí)際可支配收入增速放緩,,但美國(guó)人依舊在以更快的速度消費(fèi),導(dǎo)致個(gè)人儲(chǔ)蓄率降至自2022年底以來(lái)的最低水平,。

但貿(mào)易逆差和庫(kù)存數(shù)據(jù)掩蓋了更穩(wěn)健的消費(fèi)者支出數(shù)據(jù),。富國(guó)銀行表示,如果剔除貿(mào)易的影響,,第一季度的報(bào)告將符合預(yù)期。

在剔除貿(mào)易逆差之后,,另外一個(gè)衡量基本國(guó)內(nèi)需求的指標(biāo)——庫(kù)存與政府支出——增長(zhǎng)了3.1%,。

富國(guó)銀行的結(jié)論是:“過(guò)去三個(gè)季度,這個(gè)指標(biāo)都達(dá)到了3.0%甚至更高,,這意味著增長(zhǎng)穩(wěn)健,。不要低估美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)?!?/p>

該銀行的報(bào)告代表了一種與其他方的悲觀反應(yīng)截然不同的立場(chǎng),。

安永(EY)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家格雷戈利·達(dá)科之前曾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,,GDP報(bào)告不僅削弱了關(guān)于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)“不著陸”并重新加速的討論,他還警告如果通脹依舊頑固,,繼續(xù)降低收入并使金融狀況緊縮,,可能存在進(jìn)一步經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

TradeStation全球市場(chǎng)策略主管大衛(wèi)·拉塞爾也告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,,滯脹的威脅日益嚴(yán)峻,。“如果在增長(zhǎng)如此疲軟的情況下通貨膨脹依舊沒(méi)有改善,,你就不得不懷疑價(jià)格走低的趨勢(shì)是否將會(huì)持續(xù),。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

美國(guó)第一季度的GDP明顯減速,,遠(yuǎn)不及預(yù)期,,這在華爾街引起了對(duì)滯脹的恐慌。

富國(guó)銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在上周四發(fā)布了一篇報(bào)告,,名為《披著羊皮的狼:GDP疲軟掩蓋了消費(fèi)激增》(Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing: Soft GDP Hides Surging Spending),。該報(bào)告指出,1.6%的整體GDP增長(zhǎng)率受到了波動(dòng)因素的影響,,如貿(mào)易逆差擴(kuò)大和庫(kù)存補(bǔ)充速度放緩等,,這些因素掩蓋了消費(fèi)者需求依舊強(qiáng)勁的事實(shí)。

這份報(bào)告稱,,消費(fèi)者的商品支出確實(shí)在減少,,而且GDP報(bào)告顯示大宗耐用品支出以每年1.2%的速度收縮。但這被服務(wù)支出激增所抵消,。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家蒂姆·昆蘭和香儂·西里·格倫寫道:“就像棒球比賽后段的救援投手一樣,,第一季度的服務(wù)支出迅速增長(zhǎng),年增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到4.0%,,這是自2021年在刺激政策推動(dòng)下消費(fèi)激增以來(lái),,消費(fèi)者服務(wù)支出的最快漲幅?!?/p>

他們補(bǔ)充道,,除了2020年和2021年疫情導(dǎo)致的封鎖和重啟使數(shù)據(jù)失真以外,在過(guò)去二十年服務(wù)支出增長(zhǎng)率只有三次超過(guò)4%,。其中2014年一次,,2004年兩次。

事實(shí)上,,服務(wù)業(yè)需求依舊強(qiáng)勁,,服務(wù)業(yè)價(jià)格上漲5.1%,遠(yuǎn)高于3.7%的廣義核心通脹率,,而后者較前一個(gè)季度已經(jīng)有所上漲,。

與此同時(shí),,富國(guó)銀行的報(bào)告指出,第一季度實(shí)際可支配收入增速放緩,,但美國(guó)人依舊在以更快的速度消費(fèi),,導(dǎo)致個(gè)人儲(chǔ)蓄率降至自2022年底以來(lái)的最低水平。

但貿(mào)易逆差和庫(kù)存數(shù)據(jù)掩蓋了更穩(wěn)健的消費(fèi)者支出數(shù)據(jù),。富國(guó)銀行表示,,如果剔除貿(mào)易的影響,第一季度的報(bào)告將符合預(yù)期,。

在剔除貿(mào)易逆差之后,,另外一個(gè)衡量基本國(guó)內(nèi)需求的指標(biāo)——庫(kù)存與政府支出——增長(zhǎng)了3.1%。

富國(guó)銀行的結(jié)論是:“過(guò)去三個(gè)季度,,這個(gè)指標(biāo)都達(dá)到了3.0%甚至更高,,這意味著增長(zhǎng)穩(wěn)健。不要低估美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì),?!?/p>

該銀行的報(bào)告代表了一種與其他方的悲觀反應(yīng)截然不同的立場(chǎng)。

安永(EY)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家格雷戈利·達(dá)科之前曾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,,GDP報(bào)告不僅削弱了關(guān)于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)“不著陸”并重新加速的討論,,他還警告如果通脹依舊頑固,繼續(xù)降低收入并使金融狀況緊縮,,可能存在進(jìn)一步經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。

TradeStation全球市場(chǎng)策略主管大衛(wèi)·拉塞爾也告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,滯脹的威脅日益嚴(yán)峻,?!叭绻谠鲩L(zhǎng)如此疲軟的情況下通貨膨脹依舊沒(méi)有改善,你就不得不懷疑價(jià)格走低的趨勢(shì)是否將會(huì)持續(xù),?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

The first-quarter GDP report showed so much deceleration and missed estimates by such a wide margin that stagflation fears are increasingly creeping into Wall Street chatter.

But the headline number of 1.6% growth was weighed down by volatile factors like a wider trade deficit and slower inventory restocking, which masked how robust consumer demand continues to be, said Wells Fargo economists in a Thursday note titled “Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing: Soft GDP Hides Surging Spending.”

To be sure, consumers are spending less on goods, and the GDP report showed that outlays on big-ticket durable goods contracted at a 1.2% annualized pace, according to the note. But that was more than offset by a surge in spending on services.

“Like a relief pitcher in the late innings, services spending came in throwing heat in the first quarter with a blistering 4.0% annualized growth rate—the fastest surge in consumer services spending since the stimulus-fueled binge in 2021,” wrote economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery Grein.

Excluding 2020 and 2021, when the pandemic lockdown and reopening skewed data, growth in services spending has only topped 4% three times in the last two decades, they added. It happened once in 2014 and twice in 2004.

In fact, demand remains so strong in services that the 5.1% price increase in the sector outpaced the broader core rate of 3.7%, which was already an uptick from the prior quarter.

Meanwhile, real disposable incomes saw slower growth in the quarter, but Americans continued to spend at a faster clip, sending the personal savings rate to the lowest since the end of 2022, the note said.

But trade deficit and inventory data obscured the more robust consumer figures. Stripping out the trade impact alone would have put the first-quarter report in line with forecasts, Wells Fargo said.

Another gauge of underlying domestic demand that excludes the trade gap, inventories and government spending rose 3.1%.

“The last three quarterly prints for this measure have all come in at 3.0% or higher, signaling healthy and stable growth,” Wells Fargo concluded. “Don’t underestimate this economy.”

The bank’s note represents somewhat of a counter-narrative to the gloomy reactions elsewhere.

EY chief economist Gregory Daco told Fortune earlier that the GDP report not only undercuts talk of a re-accelerating “no landing” economy, but he warned there’s further downside risk if inflation remains stubborn, eroding incomes and keeping financial conditions tight.

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, also told Fortune that stagflation is a growing threat. “If inflation isn’t getting better with such weak growth, you have to wonder if the trend toward lower prices will continue.”

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