如今情況發(fā)生了變化,。對于政府、企業(yè)和家庭來說,,希望新活力不會曇花一現(xiàn)。
但各國也必須確保經(jīng)濟強勁增長的好處能夠惠及經(jīng)濟的各個領(lǐng)域,,并提高人民生活水平。歐盟統(tǒng)計局(Eurostat)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,葡萄牙和希臘的最低工資標(biāo)準(zhǔn)都低于每月1000歐元。
如果不能解決這一問題,,可能會激起選民的不滿情緒,,而這種不滿情緒已經(jīng)在歐洲大部分地區(qū)凸顯出來,。
在最近的歐洲議會選舉中,,民粹主義和極右翼政黨在德國、法國和意大利這三個最大的經(jīng)濟體中取得了勝利,。如果這導(dǎo)致政治和政策出現(xiàn)更廣泛的不確定性,就會對該地區(qū)的穩(wěn)定性構(gòu)成威脅,,而穩(wěn)定性正是投資者和企業(yè)需要看到的。
在西班牙,,極右翼呼聲運動黨(Vox)席位大增,,而葡萄牙的極右翼的夠了黨(Chega)在今年早些時候的全國大選中表現(xiàn)出色,,也取得了進展,。
南歐經(jīng)濟增長部分是由旅游業(yè)和疫情后游客激增推動的,但這并不是唯一因素,。長達數(shù)年的清理行動也為這些經(jīng)濟體奠定了更堅實的基礎(chǔ)。
希臘經(jīng)濟及工業(yè)研究基金會(Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research)的總干事尼克斯·維塔斯(Nikos Vettas)說:“希臘和其他南歐國家的不確定性如今已經(jīng)消失了,。這意味著還有很多工作要完成。然而,,不確定性消失是最重要的因素,因為在過去,,不確定性會趕走資本和勞動力?!?/p>
例如,希臘在長達十年的危機中損失了四分之一的產(chǎn)出,,債務(wù)負擔(dān)飆升,。
但去年該國重新獲得了投資評級,其債務(wù)占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比率降至十多年來的最低點,。上個月,標(biāo)普全球評級(S&P Global Ratings)下調(diào)了法國的評級,,這表明投資風(fēng)向發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變。
葡萄牙的債務(wù)比率在膨脹到不可持續(xù)的水平后,,近年來也一直在下降(不包括疫情帶來的影響)。
“當(dāng)我來到葡萄牙時,,這里百廢待興?!睍r裝設(shè)計師安娜·佩尼亞·科斯塔(Ana Penha e Costa)說,,她在里約熱內(nèi)盧的一家服裝店工作后,,于2014年從巴西返回葡萄牙,。
盡管當(dāng)時葡萄牙正從嚴重的經(jīng)濟衰退中復(fù)蘇,并努力降低創(chuàng)紀錄的失業(yè)率,,但她還是決定建立自己的在線服裝業(yè)務(wù)。兩年后,,佩尼亞·科斯塔在里斯本市中心開設(shè)了第一家實體店。
時年36歲的她說道:“現(xiàn)在我們80%的客戶都是外國人,。我們的生意非常好,?!?/p>
在希臘,Moschos Olives正在擴大規(guī)模,,因為其現(xiàn)有設(shè)施已達到最大產(chǎn)能。為了實現(xiàn)綠色生產(chǎn),,該公司已向歐盟后疫情時代的復(fù)蘇和恢復(fù)基金 (RRF)提出申請,,從今年夏天開始安裝太陽能電池板,,并將叉車更換為電動車型。
財政狀況仍然存在風(fēng)險,,但過去十年的努力正在取得成效。盡管歐洲央行縮減了曾經(jīng)是重要生命線的債券購買計劃,,但債券息差仍大體保持在可控范圍內(nèi),。
十年前主導(dǎo)債券市場的投資者擔(dān)憂情緒已逐漸消失,。
意大利仍然是這個故事中的異類,這個規(guī)模較大的經(jīng)濟體仍落后于南歐鄰國,,在財政方面取得的進展也更少,。
羅馬路易斯大學(xué)(Luiss university)應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授瓦倫蒂娜·梅利西亞(Valentina Meliciani)說:“對于意大利、希臘,、西班牙和葡萄牙這四個國家來說,,有些事情確實發(fā)生了,比如金融穩(wěn)定感恢復(fù),,債券息差實現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定,。但在經(jīng)濟增長方面,還是存在一些差異,。意大利一直無法穩(wěn)定債務(wù)水平?!?/p>
雖然大眾旅游業(yè)和廉價制造業(yè)仍然是南歐經(jīng)濟的重要組成部分,但南歐國家也在向生物技術(shù)服務(wù)等高價值領(lǐng)域進軍,。這反映出人們意識到,坐以待斃于事無補,。
多年來,,莫妮卡·薩達(Monica Sada)一直在紐約為富有的拉丁美洲人提供咨詢,,指導(dǎo)他們?nèi)绾卧谀Ω笸ǎ↗PMorgan)和德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)投資。她飽受皮膚問題的折磨,,對現(xiàn)有的治療方案感到沮喪,,于是她回到西班牙創(chuàng)辦了自己的公司。
這家名為Unicskin的美容公司向中東和其他地區(qū)的富有客戶銷售護膚霜和LED面膜等科技產(chǎn)品,。
據(jù)該公司稱,,公司收入每年翻一番,其中大部分銷售額來自出口,。
薩達的經(jīng)營之道是西班牙,、希臘和葡萄牙希望塑造的形象的縮影,。
薩達說:“我在銀行工作的歲月教會了我紀律,而在紐約的生活則開拓了我的思路,。在管理公司方面,,我謹慎行事,,以穩(wěn)定增長和實現(xiàn)盈利為目標(biāo)?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
如今情況發(fā)生了變化,。對于政府、企業(yè)和家庭來說,,希望新活力不會曇花一現(xiàn)。
但各國也必須確保經(jīng)濟強勁增長的好處能夠惠及經(jīng)濟的各個領(lǐng)域,,并提高人民生活水平,。歐盟統(tǒng)計局(Eurostat)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,葡萄牙和希臘的最低工資標(biāo)準(zhǔn)都低于每月1000歐元,。
如果不能解決這一問題,可能會激起選民的不滿情緒,,而這種不滿情緒已經(jīng)在歐洲大部分地區(qū)凸顯出來。
在最近的歐洲議會選舉中,民粹主義和極右翼政黨在德國,、法國和意大利這三個最大的經(jīng)濟體中取得了勝利,。如果這導(dǎo)致政治和政策出現(xiàn)更廣泛的不確定性,,就會對該地區(qū)的穩(wěn)定性構(gòu)成威脅,而穩(wěn)定性正是投資者和企業(yè)需要看到的,。
在西班牙,極右翼呼聲運動黨(Vox)席位大增,,而葡萄牙的極右翼的夠了黨(Chega)在今年早些時候的全國大選中表現(xiàn)出色,也取得了進展,。
南歐經(jīng)濟增長部分是由旅游業(yè)和疫情后游客激增推動的,但這并不是唯一因素,。長達數(shù)年的清理行動也為這些經(jīng)濟體奠定了更堅實的基礎(chǔ),。
希臘經(jīng)濟及工業(yè)研究基金會(Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research)的總干事尼克斯·維塔斯(Nikos Vettas)說:“希臘和其他南歐國家的不確定性如今已經(jīng)消失了。這意味著還有很多工作要完成,。然而,不確定性消失是最重要的因素,,因為在過去,,不確定性會趕走資本和勞動力,。”
例如,,希臘在長達十年的危機中損失了四分之一的產(chǎn)出,,債務(wù)負擔(dān)飆升,。
但去年該國重新獲得了投資評級,其債務(wù)占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比率降至十多年來的最低點,。上個月,標(biāo)普全球評級(S&P Global Ratings)下調(diào)了法國的評級,,這表明投資風(fēng)向發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變,。
葡萄牙的債務(wù)比率在膨脹到不可持續(xù)的水平后,,近年來也一直在下降(不包括疫情帶來的影響)。
“當(dāng)我來到葡萄牙時,,這里百廢待興?!睍r裝設(shè)計師安娜·佩尼亞·科斯塔(Ana Penha e Costa)說,她在里約熱內(nèi)盧的一家服裝店工作后,,于2014年從巴西返回葡萄牙。
盡管當(dāng)時葡萄牙正從嚴重的經(jīng)濟衰退中復(fù)蘇,,并努力降低創(chuàng)紀錄的失業(yè)率,但她還是決定建立自己的在線服裝業(yè)務(wù),。兩年后,佩尼亞·科斯塔在里斯本市中心開設(shè)了第一家實體店,。
時年36歲的她說道:“現(xiàn)在我們80%的客戶都是外國人。我們的生意非常好,。”
在希臘,,Moschos Olives正在擴大規(guī)模,因為其現(xiàn)有設(shè)施已達到最大產(chǎn)能,。為了實現(xiàn)綠色生產(chǎn),該公司已向歐盟后疫情時代的復(fù)蘇和恢復(fù)基金 (RRF)提出申請,,從今年夏天開始安裝太陽能電池板,并將叉車更換為電動車型,。
財政狀況仍然存在風(fēng)險,,但過去十年的努力正在取得成效。盡管歐洲央行縮減了曾經(jīng)是重要生命線的債券購買計劃,但債券息差仍大體保持在可控范圍內(nèi),。
十年前主導(dǎo)債券市場的投資者擔(dān)憂情緒已逐漸消失,。
意大利仍然是這個故事中的異類,這個規(guī)模較大的經(jīng)濟體仍落后于南歐鄰國,,在財政方面取得的進展也更少,。
羅馬路易斯大學(xué)(Luiss university)應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授瓦倫蒂娜·梅利西亞(Valentina Meliciani)說:“對于意大利、希臘,、西班牙和葡萄牙這四個國家來說,有些事情確實發(fā)生了,,比如金融穩(wěn)定感恢復(fù),債券息差實現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定,。但在經(jīng)濟增長方面,,還是存在一些差異,。意大利一直無法穩(wěn)定債務(wù)水平?!?/p>
雖然大眾旅游業(yè)和廉價制造業(yè)仍然是南歐經(jīng)濟的重要組成部分,,但南歐國家也在向生物技術(shù)服務(wù)等高價值領(lǐng)域進軍。這反映出人們意識到,,坐以待斃于事無補。
多年來,,莫妮卡·薩達(Monica Sada)一直在紐約為富有的拉丁美洲人提供咨詢,,指導(dǎo)他們?nèi)绾卧谀Ω笸ǎ↗PMorgan)和德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)投資。她飽受皮膚問題的折磨,,對現(xiàn)有的治療方案感到沮喪,于是她回到西班牙創(chuàng)辦了自己的公司,。
這家名為Unicskin的美容公司向中東和其他地區(qū)的富有客戶銷售護膚霜和LED面膜等科技產(chǎn)品。
據(jù)該公司稱,,公司收入每年翻一番,其中大部分銷售額來自出口。
薩達的經(jīng)營之道是西班牙,、希臘和葡萄牙希望塑造的形象的縮影,。
薩達說:“我在銀行工作的歲月教會了我紀律,,而在紐約的生活則開拓了我的思路。在管理公司方面,,我謹慎行事,以穩(wěn)定增長和實現(xiàn)盈利為目標(biāo),?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Things have changed now. For governments, as well as businesses and households, the hope is that the new dynamism doesn’t prove to be a flash in the pan.
But they must also ensure the benefits of stronger growth reach all corners of the economy and boost living standards. Both Portugal and Greece have a minimum wage that’s less than €1,000 a month, Eurostat figures show.
Failure to address that could foment the type of voter discontent that’s already on display in large parts of Europe.
In the latest European Parliament elections, there were gains for populist and far right parties in Germany, France and Italy — the three largest economies. If that leads to broader uncertainty about politics and policies, that’s a threat to the stability investors and businesses need to see in the region.
In Spain, the far-right VOX added seats, while Portugal’s Chega also made gains after its strong showing in national elections earlier this year.
The economic growth across Southern Europe is partly driven by tourism and a post-pandemic surge in visitors, but it’s not the only factor. A years long cleanup operation has also put these economies on a more solid footing.
“The uncertainty for Greece and the rest of the Southern countries is now gone,” said Nikos Vettas, director general of the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research in Athens. “This does not mean that there is not much still to be done. The absence of uncertainty, however, is the most important factor as in the past it was driving away capital and labor.”
Greece, for example, lost a quarter of its output during a decade-long crisis, and its debt burden soared.
But last year the country regained its investment grade and its debt-to-GDP ratio fell to the lowest in more than a decade. In a sign of how directions have shifted, France was downgraded by S&P Global Ratings last month.
Portugal’s debt ratio has also been on a downward trajectory in recent years, excluding the pandemic impact, after it had ballooned to unsustainable levels.
“When I arrived in Portugal there was nothing going on,” said fashion designer Ana Penha e Costa, who returned from Brazil in 2014 after working for a clothing store in Rio de Janeiro.
Despite the fact that Portugal was recovering from a deep recession and struggling to bring down record unemployment, she decided to set up her own online clothing business. Two years later, Penha e Costa opened her first physical store in the center of Lisbon.
“Today 80% of our clients are foreigners,” said the 36-year-old. “We’re doing very well.”
In Greece, Moschos Olives is expanding as its current facility is at maximum capacity. It’s applied to a post-pandemic EU fund, known as RRF, in order to turn green, installing solar panels and replacing forklifts with electric models starting this summer.
Fiscal positions are also still a risk, but the work over the past decade is paying off. Even as the European Central Bank scaled back its bond-buying programs, once a huge lifeline, spreads on bonds stayed broadly in check.
The investor worries that dominated the bond market a decade ago have faded away.
Italy remains an outlier in this story, a larger economy that’s lagging behind its Southern European neighbors and which has made less fiscal progress.
“For the four — Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal — there are certain things that are true, such as a renewed sense of financial stability and the stabilization of bond spreads,” said Valentina Meliciani, a professor of applied economics at Luiss university in Rome. “But when it comes to economic growth, there are some differences. Italy has not been able to stabilize its debt.”
While mass tourism and cheaper manufacturing are still a large part of Southern Europe’s economies, there’s also a drive to push into higher-value areas, such as biotech services. It reflects a realization that there’s no benefit to sitting still.
Monica Sada had been advising wealthy Latin Americans in New York for a number of years on how to invest their money with JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank. Suffering with skin problems, and frustrated with the treatments available, she returned to Spain to set up her own business.
The beauty company, Unicskin, sells skincare creams and tech devices such as an LED face mask to wealthy clients in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Revenue has been doubling annually, with exports making up the bulk of sales, according to the company.
Sada’s approach to her business is a microcosm of the image that Spain, along with Greece and Portugal, want to project.
“The years I worked in banking taught me discipline, and living in New York opened my mind,” Sada said. “I manage my company prudently, with the goal of growing steadily and in a very profitable way.”