盡管股市近期暴跌,，但泡沫將很快恢復(fù)勢頭
JASON MA
2024-08-06
凱投宏觀（Capital Economics）表示,，經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性不大，在經(jīng)歷了今年下半年的疲軟期后,，經(jīng)濟增長甚至?xí)匦录铀?。圖片來源：BEATA ZAWRZEL—NURPHOTO VIA GETTY IMAGES
由于對經(jīng)濟衰退的擔(dān)憂加劇，股市上周遭遇了慘烈的暴跌,，但凱投宏觀預(yù)測,，人工智能熱潮將繼續(xù)引領(lǐng)股市走高。
上周五公布的7月就業(yè)報告意外疲弱,，以及上周四美國供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會制造業(yè)指數(shù)急劇惡化,，均令股市下挫。上周,，標準普爾500指數(shù)下跌2.5%,，納斯達克指數(shù)下跌3.6%，此前因小盤股輪動而飆升的羅素2000指數(shù)下跌近7%,。
與此同時,，對經(jīng)濟增長的擔(dān)憂引發(fā)了人們對美聯(lián)儲將推出更激進的寬松周期的預(yù)期，華爾街預(yù)計利率最終將下調(diào)200個基點或更多,。
凱投宏觀資深市場經(jīng)濟學(xué)家戴安娜·伊萬內(nèi)爾（Diana Iovanel）在上周五的一份報告中表示,，股市應(yīng)該會恢復(fù)上漲,。
她寫道：“對美國經(jīng)濟衰退的擔(dān)憂重燃，增加了美聯(lián)儲進一步降息的可能性,。但我們認為,，美國經(jīng)濟阻礙股市反彈的時間不會太長?！?/p>
她補充說,，股票估值遠未達到“經(jīng)濟大災(zāi)難”的程度，信貸息差仍接近歷史低點,。凱投宏觀認為,，從9月到明年7月，美聯(lián)儲將在每次會議上降息,。
伊萬內(nèi)爾表示,，經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性不大，在今年下半年的疲軟期過后,，經(jīng)濟增長甚至?xí)匦录铀佟?/p>
她表示：“因此,，我們預(yù)計風(fēng)險情緒不會進一步惡化。其結(jié)果是,，我們認為經(jīng)濟不會對人工智能引發(fā)的泡沫很快再次升溫形成太大阻礙,。”
事實上,，微軟（Microsoft）,、Meta和谷歌（Google）最近發(fā)布的財報顯示，它們第二季度在人工智能服務(wù)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,、土地和芯片上共花費了405億美元,。每家公司都表示，這些數(shù)字明年只會更大,。
這些支出最終很可能會流向英偉達（Nvidia）等人工智能芯片供應(yīng)商身上,，后者過去幾年的營收和股價都出現(xiàn)了天文數(shù)字般的增長。
華爾街的其他人則呼吁投資者不要對就業(yè)的突然疲軟反應(yīng)過度,。曾擔(dān)任美聯(lián)儲經(jīng)濟學(xué)家的克勞迪婭·薩姆（Claudia Sahm）提出了“薩姆規(guī)則”經(jīng)濟衰退指標。她告訴《財富》雜志,，她目前并不擔(dān)心美國陷入衰退,，并指出美國家庭收入仍在增長，消費者支出和企業(yè)投資仍保持韌性,。
不過,，目前擔(dān)任投資公司New Century Advisors首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家的薩姆說，近期勞動力市場的趨勢充其量也只能說是疲軟,。
“隨著時間的推移,，這是非常準確的,，所以不應(yīng)被忽視，”她補充說,，并指出“衰退可能緩慢形成,，然后以迅雷不及掩耳之勢到來?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng)）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
由于對經(jīng)濟衰退的擔(dān)憂加劇,，股市上周遭遇了慘烈的暴跌，但凱投宏觀預(yù)測,，人工智能熱潮將繼續(xù)引領(lǐng)股市走高,。
上周五公布的7月就業(yè)報告意外疲弱，以及上周四美國供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會制造業(yè)指數(shù)急劇惡化,，均令股市下挫,。上周，標準普爾500指數(shù)下跌2.5%,，納斯達克指數(shù)下跌3.6%,，此前因小盤股輪動而飆升的羅素2000指數(shù)下跌近7%。
與此同時,，對經(jīng)濟增長的擔(dān)憂引發(fā)了人們對美聯(lián)儲將推出更激進的寬松周期的預(yù)期,，華爾街預(yù)計利率最終將下調(diào)200個基點或更多。
凱投宏觀資深市場經(jīng)濟學(xué)家戴安娜·伊萬內(nèi)爾（Diana Iovanel）在上周五的一份報告中表示,，股市應(yīng)該會恢復(fù)上漲,。
她寫道：“對美國經(jīng)濟衰退的擔(dān)憂重燃，增加了美聯(lián)儲進一步降息的可能性,。但我們認為,，美國經(jīng)濟阻礙股市反彈的時間不會太長?！?/p>
她補充說,，股票估值遠未達到“經(jīng)濟大災(zāi)難”的程度，信貸息差仍接近歷史低點,。凱投宏觀認為,，從9月到明年7月，美聯(lián)儲將在每次會議上降息,。
伊萬內(nèi)爾表示,，經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性不大，在今年下半年的疲軟期過后,，經(jīng)濟增長甚至?xí)匦录铀佟?/p>
她表示：“因此,，我們預(yù)計風(fēng)險情緒不會進一步惡化。其結(jié)果是，我們認為經(jīng)濟不會對人工智能引發(fā)的泡沫很快再次升溫形成太大阻礙,?！?/p>
事實上，微軟（Microsoft）,、Meta和谷歌（Google）最近發(fā)布的財報顯示,，它們第二季度在人工智能服務(wù)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、土地和芯片上共花費了405億美元,。每家公司都表示,，這些數(shù)字明年只會更大。
這些支出最終很可能會流向英偉達（Nvidia）等人工智能芯片供應(yīng)商身上,，后者過去幾年的營收和股價都出現(xiàn)了天文數(shù)字般的增長,。
華爾街的其他人則呼吁投資者不要對就業(yè)的突然疲軟反應(yīng)過度。曾擔(dān)任美聯(lián)儲經(jīng)濟學(xué)家的克勞迪婭·薩姆（Claudia Sahm）提出了“薩姆規(guī)則”經(jīng)濟衰退指標,。她告訴《財富》雜志,，她目前并不擔(dān)心美國陷入衰退，并指出美國家庭收入仍在增長,，消費者支出和企業(yè)投資仍保持韌性,。
不過，目前擔(dān)任投資公司New Century Advisors首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家的薩姆說,，近期勞動力市場的趨勢充其量也只能說是疲軟,。
“隨著時間的推移，這是非常準確的,，所以不應(yīng)被忽視,，”她補充說，并指出“衰退可能緩慢形成,，然后以迅雷不及掩耳之勢到來,。”（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
The stock market suffered a brutal bloodbath last week as recession concerns shot up, but Capital Economics predicted the artificial intelligence boom will continue to lead the way higher.
The surprisingly weak July jobs report on Friday and the sharp deterioration in the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index on Thursday sank stocks. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 2.5%, the Nasdaq fell 3.6%, and the Russell 2000, which previously soared on a rotation into small caps, tumbled nearly 7%.
Meanwhile, economic growth concerns have raised expectations for more aggressive easing cycle from the Federal Reserve, with Wall Street seeing rates eventually plunging by 200 basis points or more.
In a note on Friday, Capital Economics senior markets economist Diana Iovanel said the stock rally should resume.
“Renewed fears of a US recession have increased the chances of additional rate cuts from the Fed,” she wrote. “But we don’t think that the US economy will stand in the way of an equity rally for much longer.”
Stock valuations are nowhere near indicating an “economic cataclysm,” and credit spreads are still close to record lows, she added. Capital Economics sees the Fed cutting rates at each meeting from September until next July.
Iovanel said a recession is unlikely and growth will even reaccelerate after a soft patch in the second half of this year.
“So we don’t expect risk sentiment to deteriorate much further,” she said. “The upshot is that we doubt the economy will stand much in the way of the AI-fueled bubble picking up steam again soon.”
Indeed, recent earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta and Google indicate they spent a combined $40.5 billion on the infrastructure, land, and chips that power their AI services during the second quarter. And each company indicated that those numbers will only get bigger next year.
Such spending will likely end up at AI chip suppliers like Nvidia, which has seen astronomical increases in revenue and its stock price in the last few years.
Others on Wall Street have called for investors not to overreact to the sudden weakening in jobs. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist who developed the “Sahm Rule” recession indicator, told Fortune on Friday that she’s not concerned right now that the U.S. is in a recession, pointing out that household income is still growing while consumer spending and business investment remain resilient.
Still, recent trends in the labor market have looked weak at best, said Sahm, who is now chief economist at investment firm New Century Advisors.
“It’s been very accurate over time, so that shouldn’t be dismissed,” she added, noting that “recessions can build slowly, and then come quickly.”
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