
在波音公司的太空計(jì)劃遭遇嚴(yán)重挫折后,,波音公司面臨著一種兩難境地,,一方面要解決資金捉襟見(jiàn)肘的困境,一方面還要履行美國(guó)的國(guó)家任務(wù),。
美國(guó)國(guó)家航空航天局(NASA)上周六宣布,,由于波音公司生產(chǎn)的宇宙飛船存在故障,NASA將不會(huì)讓宇航員搭乘這艘飛船從空間站返回地球,?!靶请H線”飛船項(xiàng)目未來(lái)將何去何從,將成為擺在波音新任CEO凱利·奧特伯格面前的一個(gè)難題,。經(jīng)過(guò)連續(xù)數(shù)周的測(cè)試和激烈爭(zhēng)論,,NASA還是決定,使用馬斯克的SpaceX飛船更安全,。
今年對(duì)于波音公司來(lái)說(shuō),,是特別流年不利的一年。波音今年迎來(lái)了許多尷尬的時(shí)刻,,NASA宇航員被困在空間站回不了地球,,只是其中之一。除此之外,,波音737 Max客機(jī)今年再次發(fā)生了空難,,聯(lián)邦政府也對(duì)波音公司展開(kāi)了調(diào)查,波音管理層也發(fā)生了人事變動(dòng),。
奧特伯格本月初才剛剛接任了波音CEO,。面臨這種復(fù)雜局面,,公司的載人航天項(xiàng)目,特別是“星際線”飛船項(xiàng)目還要不要搞下去,,成了擺在他以及波音領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層面前一個(gè)棘手問(wèn)題,。
在奧特伯格加入波音公司之前,波音高管曾豪言,,絕不辜負(fù)NASA信任,,一定能造出美國(guó)的國(guó)產(chǎn)飛船,將宇航員送上國(guó)際空間站,。NASA負(fù)責(zé)人比爾·納爾遜稱(chēng),,奧特伯格最近表示,待“星際線”飛船返回地球后,,他將支持波音公司繼續(xù)推進(jìn)該項(xiàng)目,。
納爾遜上周六對(duì)記者表示:“他向我表示,一旦星際線飛船安全返回,,他們將繼續(xù)解決這些問(wèn)題,。我們還是有充足備份的,我們宇航員也是能夠往返空間站的,?!?/p>
作為新任掌門(mén)人,人們對(duì)奧特伯格寄予厚望,,都希望他能帶領(lǐng)歷經(jīng)多年動(dòng)蕩的波音重返正軌,。他也有權(quán)力進(jìn)行一些徹底的改革,包括發(fā)出一些不容易被外界接受的聲音——比如取消公司的載人航天計(jì)劃,。
Melius研究公司的分析師羅伯特·斯賓加恩認(rèn)為:“他們會(huì)不會(huì)覺(jué)得這個(gè)項(xiàng)目太復(fù)雜了,,而且反正有其他人比他們做得更好,所以干脆砍掉它,?這種可能性是存在的,?!?/p>
不過(guò)此事究竟會(huì)向哪個(gè)方向發(fā)展,,還取決于“星際線”飛船下個(gè)月空載返回地球時(shí)的表現(xiàn)。NASA并未排除繼續(xù)對(duì)波音飛船進(jìn)行論證的可能性,,但是它在下次載人飛行前,,還需要再進(jìn)行一次試飛。這樣一來(lái),,波音公司又將損失4億美元——這是根據(jù)波音早前一次試飛的成本計(jì)算的,。目前 ,NASA的專(zhuān)家仍未確定“星際線”飛船的推進(jìn)系統(tǒng)為何會(huì)突然發(fā)生故障,。
波音的載人航天項(xiàng)目由來(lái)已久,,甚至可以追溯到阿波羅登月計(jì)劃時(shí)期,。但是由于公司資金緊張,再加上它今年至少還會(huì)燒掉50億美元,,所以公司領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層感到肉痛也很正常,。但是現(xiàn)在,“星際線”項(xiàng)目已經(jīng)超支了16億美元左右,。波音差不多也無(wú)法指望從這個(gè)項(xiàng)目上賺到錢(qián)了,。
在7月份的一份文件中,波音公司披露了一筆1.25億美元的新虧損,,這是由于載人飛行測(cè)試和飛船推進(jìn)系統(tǒng)測(cè)試延期導(dǎo)致的,。美國(guó)戰(zhàn)略與國(guó)際研究中心航空航天安全項(xiàng)目副主任克萊頓·斯沃普指出:“對(duì)波音來(lái)說(shuō),這是一筆不小的損失,,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,,這會(huì)使業(yè)務(wù)的可行性受到質(zhì)疑?!?/p>
波音公司的軍工與航天部門(mén)有好幾個(gè)固定價(jià)格合同都在一定程度上影響了公司利潤(rùn),,“星際線”飛船項(xiàng)目就是其中之一。2024年前6個(gè)月,,該部門(mén)的運(yùn)營(yíng)虧損達(dá)到7.62億美元,,略高于去年同期。曾幾何時(shí),,軍工航天一度是波音公司的一個(gè)可靠的利潤(rùn)制造機(jī)器,,但現(xiàn)在它的虧損已經(jīng)成為擺在波音新任CEO面前的一個(gè)棘手問(wèn)題。
伯恩斯坦公司航空分析師道格拉斯·哈內(nèi)德表示:“我認(rèn)為,,他很有必要深入研究和評(píng)估一下這個(gè)問(wèn)題,。畢竟他的背景是很清白的?!?/p>
至于公司內(nèi)部對(duì)“星際線”項(xiàng)目的命運(yùn)持何種看法,,波音公司拒絕對(duì)此發(fā)表評(píng)論。波音公司副總裁兼項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理馬克·納皮在上周六發(fā)布的一條內(nèi)部消息中表示,,有關(guān)員工將在本周一開(kāi)會(huì),,討論下一步的行動(dòng)。
納皮表示:“我知道這并非我們所期待的決定,,不過(guò)我們已經(jīng)做好準(zhǔn)備,,采取必要的行動(dòng)來(lái)支持NASA的決定。重點(diǎn)仍然是確保宇航員和航天器的安全,?!?/p>
早在上周末的故障發(fā)生前,就有跡象顯示,波音能否堅(jiān)持對(duì)“星際線”項(xiàng)目的長(zhǎng)期投入,,是有必要打一個(gè)問(wèn)號(hào)的,。去年年底,波音首席財(cái)務(wù)官布萊恩·韋斯特曾對(duì)少數(shù)投資人表示,,等到公司履行了NASA的6次載人航天任務(wù)后,,波音將對(duì)該項(xiàng)目的未來(lái)投資重新做出決定。
NASA在規(guī)劃商業(yè)載人航天項(xiàng)目的未來(lái)時(shí),,自己也要做出一定的權(quán)衡和取舍,。
NASA的如意算盤(pán)是,在載人航天領(lǐng)域不要搞一家獨(dú)大,,最好有兩個(gè)以上的載人航天項(xiàng)目齊頭并進(jìn),。雖然“星際線”項(xiàng)目已經(jīng)比原計(jì)劃落后了7年,但是SpaceX的進(jìn)展還算不錯(cuò),。自2020年以來(lái),,SpaceX已經(jīng)替NASA將9批宇航員送入了國(guó)際空間站。
斯沃普指出,,雖然“星際線”項(xiàng)目遭遇了種種挫折,,但NASA要想搞多元戰(zhàn)略,希望最大的還是波音,。如果波音退出合同,,“這對(duì)NASA來(lái)說(shuō),也并不是一個(gè)好的結(jié)果,。他們以后就只能用商業(yè)載人航天項(xiàng)目了,。”
當(dāng)然,,NASA也可以與Sierra Space公司合作,,搞一款“追夢(mèng)者”航天飛機(jī)的載人版本。在十年前最初的那次競(jìng)標(biāo)中,,“追夢(mèng)者”敗給了波音和SpaceX的項(xiàng)目,。但是考慮到“追夢(mèng)者”的貨運(yùn)版已經(jīng)跳票,要想搞出一個(gè)載人版,,這也還需要好幾年的時(shí)間,。
斯沃普認(rèn)為,考慮到這些因素,,NASA應(yīng)該想辦法讓波音繼續(xù)參與到商業(yè)載人航天計(jì)劃中來(lái),,同時(shí)也應(yīng)幫助波音解決一些財(cái)務(wù)問(wèn)題。比方說(shuō),,如果NASA需要再搞一次測(cè)試飛行,讓它在太空中測(cè)試上次出了故障的推進(jìn)系統(tǒng)問(wèn)題,那么NASA可以考慮將這次試飛與執(zhí)行一次貨運(yùn)任務(wù)相結(jié)合,。
載人航天也并非奧特伯格面臨的唯一問(wèn)題,。奧特伯格是航空航天領(lǐng)域的一位資深領(lǐng)袖,退休后又被聘到波音擔(dān)任CEO一職,。大家都希望他能盡快打造好自己的管理團(tuán)隊(duì),,然后在他手上能解決一些棘手的問(wèn)題,比如質(zhì)量問(wèn)題,,以及整個(gè)企業(yè)層面都存在的執(zhí)行乏力的問(wèn)題,。
“如果波音公司能解決商用飛機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)的問(wèn)題,那么載人航天業(yè)務(wù)的問(wèn)題甚至都顯得不那么重要了,?!盡elius研究公司的斯賓加恩表示。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:樸成奎
波音公司的 CST-100 “星際線”宇宙飛船,,今年5月攝于美國(guó)卡納維拉爾角太空基地,。Paul Hennessy—Anadolu via Getty Images
在波音公司的太空計(jì)劃遭遇嚴(yán)重挫折后,波音公司面臨著一種兩難境地,,一方面要解決資金捉襟見(jiàn)肘的困境,,一方面還要履行美國(guó)的國(guó)家任務(wù)。
美國(guó)國(guó)家航空航天局(NASA)上周六宣布,,由于波音公司生產(chǎn)的宇宙飛船存在故障,,NASA將不會(huì)讓宇航員搭乘這艘飛船從空間站返回地球?!靶请H線”飛船項(xiàng)目未來(lái)將何去何從,,將成為擺在波音新任CEO凱利·奧特伯格面前的一個(gè)難題。經(jīng)過(guò)連續(xù)數(shù)周的測(cè)試和激烈爭(zhēng)論,,NASA還是決定,,使用馬斯克的SpaceX飛船更安全。
今年對(duì)于波音公司來(lái)說(shuō),,是特別流年不利的一年,。波音今年迎來(lái)了許多尷尬的時(shí)刻,NASA宇航員被困在空間站回不了地球,,只是其中之一,。除此之外,波音737 Max客機(jī)今年再次發(fā)生了空難,,聯(lián)邦政府也對(duì)波音公司展開(kāi)了調(diào)查,,波音管理層也發(fā)生了人事變動(dòng)。
奧特伯格本月初才剛剛接任了波音CEO,。面臨這種復(fù)雜局面,,公司的載人航天項(xiàng)目,特別是“星際線”飛船項(xiàng)目還要不要搞下去,成了擺在他以及波音領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層面前一個(gè)棘手問(wèn)題,。
在奧特伯格加入波音公司之前,,波音高管曾豪言,絕不辜負(fù)NASA信任,,一定能造出美國(guó)的國(guó)產(chǎn)飛船,,將宇航員送上國(guó)際空間站。NASA負(fù)責(zé)人比爾·納爾遜稱(chēng),,奧特伯格最近表示,,待“星際線”飛船返回地球后,他將支持波音公司繼續(xù)推進(jìn)該項(xiàng)目,。
納爾遜上周六對(duì)記者表示:“他向我表示,,一旦星際線飛船安全返回,他們將繼續(xù)解決這些問(wèn)題,。我們還是有充足備份的,,我們宇航員也是能夠往返空間站的?!?/p>
作為新任掌門(mén)人,,人們對(duì)奧特伯格寄予厚望,都希望他能帶領(lǐng)歷經(jīng)多年動(dòng)蕩的波音重返正軌,。他也有權(quán)力進(jìn)行一些徹底的改革,,包括發(fā)出一些不容易被外界接受的聲音——比如取消公司的載人航天計(jì)劃。
Melius研究公司的分析師羅伯特·斯賓加恩認(rèn)為:“他們會(huì)不會(huì)覺(jué)得這個(gè)項(xiàng)目太復(fù)雜了,,而且反正有其他人比他們做得更好,,所以干脆砍掉它?這種可能性是存在的,?!?/p>
不過(guò)此事究竟會(huì)向哪個(gè)方向發(fā)展,還取決于“星際線”飛船下個(gè)月空載返回地球時(shí)的表現(xiàn),。NASA并未排除繼續(xù)對(duì)波音飛船進(jìn)行論證的可能性,,但是它在下次載人飛行前,還需要再進(jìn)行一次試飛,。這樣一來(lái),,波音公司又將損失4億美元——這是根據(jù)波音早前一次試飛的成本計(jì)算的。目前 ,,NASA的專(zhuān)家仍未確定“星際線”飛船的推進(jìn)系統(tǒng)為何會(huì)突然發(fā)生故障,。
波音的載人航天項(xiàng)目由來(lái)已久,甚至可以追溯到阿波羅登月計(jì)劃時(shí)期,。但是由于公司資金緊張,,再加上它今年至少還會(huì)燒掉50億美元,,所以公司領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層感到肉痛也很正常。但是現(xiàn)在,,“星際線”項(xiàng)目已經(jīng)超支了16億美元左右,。波音差不多也無(wú)法指望從這個(gè)項(xiàng)目上賺到錢(qián)了,。
在7月份的一份文件中,,波音公司披露了一筆1.25億美元的新虧損,這是由于載人飛行測(cè)試和飛船推進(jìn)系統(tǒng)測(cè)試延期導(dǎo)致的,。美國(guó)戰(zhàn)略與國(guó)際研究中心航空航天安全項(xiàng)目副主任克萊頓·斯沃普指出:“對(duì)波音來(lái)說(shuō),,這是一筆不小的損失,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,,這會(huì)使業(yè)務(wù)的可行性受到質(zhì)疑,。”
波音公司的軍工與航天部門(mén)有好幾個(gè)固定價(jià)格合同都在一定程度上影響了公司利潤(rùn),,“星際線”飛船項(xiàng)目就是其中之一,。2024年前6個(gè)月,該部門(mén)的運(yùn)營(yíng)虧損達(dá)到7.62億美元,,略高于去年同期,。曾幾何時(shí),軍工航天一度是波音公司的一個(gè)可靠的利潤(rùn)制造機(jī)器,,但現(xiàn)在它的虧損已經(jīng)成為擺在波音新任CEO面前的一個(gè)棘手問(wèn)題,。
伯恩斯坦公司航空分析師道格拉斯·哈內(nèi)德表示:“我認(rèn)為,他很有必要深入研究和評(píng)估一下這個(gè)問(wèn)題,。畢竟他的背景是很清白的,。”
至于公司內(nèi)部對(duì)“星際線”項(xiàng)目的命運(yùn)持何種看法,,波音公司拒絕對(duì)此發(fā)表評(píng)論,。波音公司副總裁兼項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理馬克·納皮在上周六發(fā)布的一條內(nèi)部消息中表示,有關(guān)員工將在本周一開(kāi)會(huì),,討論下一步的行動(dòng),。
納皮表示:“我知道這并非我們所期待的決定,不過(guò)我們已經(jīng)做好準(zhǔn)備,,采取必要的行動(dòng)來(lái)支持NASA的決定,。重點(diǎn)仍然是確保宇航員和航天器的安全?!?/p>
早在上周末的故障發(fā)生前,,就有跡象顯示,波音能否堅(jiān)持對(duì)“星際線”項(xiàng)目的長(zhǎng)期投入,,是有必要打一個(gè)問(wèn)號(hào)的,。去年年底,,波音首席財(cái)務(wù)官布萊恩·韋斯特曾對(duì)少數(shù)投資人表示,等到公司履行了NASA的6次載人航天任務(wù)后,,波音將對(duì)該項(xiàng)目的未來(lái)投資重新做出決定,。
NASA在規(guī)劃商業(yè)載人航天項(xiàng)目的未來(lái)時(shí),自己也要做出一定的權(quán)衡和取舍,。
NASA的如意算盤(pán)是,,在載人航天領(lǐng)域不要搞一家獨(dú)大,最好有兩個(gè)以上的載人航天項(xiàng)目齊頭并進(jìn),。雖然“星際線”項(xiàng)目已經(jīng)比原計(jì)劃落后了7年,,但是SpaceX的進(jìn)展還算不錯(cuò)。自2020年以來(lái),,SpaceX已經(jīng)替NASA將9批宇航員送入了國(guó)際空間站,。
斯沃普指出,雖然“星際線”項(xiàng)目遭遇了種種挫折,,但NASA要想搞多元戰(zhàn)略,,希望最大的還是波音。如果波音退出合同,,“這對(duì)NASA來(lái)說(shuō),,也并不是一個(gè)好的結(jié)果。他們以后就只能用商業(yè)載人航天項(xiàng)目了,?!?/p>
當(dāng)然,NASA也可以與Sierra Space公司合作,,搞一款“追夢(mèng)者”航天飛機(jī)的載人版本,。在十年前最初的那次競(jìng)標(biāo)中,“追夢(mèng)者”敗給了波音和SpaceX的項(xiàng)目,。但是考慮到“追夢(mèng)者”的貨運(yùn)版已經(jīng)跳票,,要想搞出一個(gè)載人版,這也還需要好幾年的時(shí)間,。
斯沃普認(rèn)為,,考慮到這些因素,NASA應(yīng)該想辦法讓波音繼續(xù)參與到商業(yè)載人航天計(jì)劃中來(lái),,同時(shí)也應(yīng)幫助波音解決一些財(cái)務(wù)問(wèn)題,。比方說(shuō),如果NASA需要再搞一次測(cè)試飛行,,讓它在太空中測(cè)試上次出了故障的推進(jìn)系統(tǒng)問(wèn)題,,那么NASA可以考慮將這次試飛與執(zhí)行一次貨運(yùn)任務(wù)相結(jié)合。
載人航天也并非奧特伯格面臨的唯一問(wèn)題,。奧特伯格是航空航天領(lǐng)域的一位資深領(lǐng)袖,,退休后又被聘到波音擔(dān)任CEO一職,。大家都希望他能盡快打造好自己的管理團(tuán)隊(duì),然后在他手上能解決一些棘手的問(wèn)題,,比如質(zhì)量問(wèn)題,,以及整個(gè)企業(yè)層面都存在的執(zhí)行乏力的問(wèn)題。
“如果波音公司能解決商用飛機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)的問(wèn)題,,那么載人航天業(yè)務(wù)的問(wèn)題甚至都顯得不那么重要了,。”Melius研究公司的斯賓加恩表示,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:樸成奎
After a humiliating setback to its space ambitions, Boeing Co. faces a dilemma that pits its national duty against strained cash reserves.
The decision about the future of the struggling Starliner program now rests with Boeing’s newly installed chief executive officer, Kelly Ortberg, after NASA announced Saturday that it wouldn’t send astronauts home from the space station on the faulty spacecraft. Following weeks of testing and heated debate, the space agency decided it was safer to use Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
The specter of NASA astronauts being stuck in space is just one embarrassing moment of many for Boeing during an epically bad year that’s included a near-catastrophic blowout of an airborne 737 Max jetliner, federal investigations and an executive suite shake-up.
That leaves Ortberg, who took over the top job earlier this month, and the senior leadership council known internally as “exco,” to face thorny questions about the company’s commitment to human spaceflight and Starliner.
Before Ortberg joined Boeing, executives had vowed to honor the company’s contract to ferry astronauts to the International Space Station for NASA. Bill Nelson, the agency’s top leader, said Ortberg recently voiced support for continuing the Starliner program after the craft is sent back from the space station without people on board.
“He expressed to me an intention that they will continue to work the problems once Starliner is back safely and that we will have our redundancy and our crewed access to the space station,” the NASA administrator told reporters on Saturday.
But as a new leader brought in to get Boeing back on track after years of turmoil, Ortberg has free reign to make sweeping changes and unpopular calls, including potentially scuttling the human spaceflight initiative.
“Do they ultimately exit the program because it’s too complicated,” Boeing can’t recover its investment, “and because the other guy can do it better?” said Robert Spingarn, an analyst with Melius Research. “It can happen.”
Much will depend on how Starliner performs during its return flight to Earth without astronauts on board next month. NASA hasn’t ruled out certifying the Boeing craft, although it could require another test flight before the capsule is allowed to carry astronauts again. That could cost Boeing about $400 million, based on charges the company booked to redo an earlier test flight. The agency’s experts still aren’t certain why the thrusters suddenly stopped working.
Boeing’s strained balance sheet and an expected cash burn of at least $5 billion this year are considerations the company has to weigh against its legacy in space, which dates back to the Apollo moon-landing program. After recording some $1.6 billion in cost overruns, the struggling aerospace giant seems unlikely to ever make money on Starliner.
In a July filing, the company disclosed $125 million in new losses stemming from delays to the crewed flight test and testing of Starliner’s glitchy propulsion systems. “For Boeing, the losses are significant and would call into question the viability of a business like this if you look at it in a long-term way,” said Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Starliner is one of several fixed-price contracts dragging on the profits in Boeing’s defense and space division, which posted a $762 million operating loss during the first six months of 2024, slightly worse than a year earlier. The stumbles at a business that was once reliably profitable is likely a pressing concern for Boeing’s new CEO.
“I think it’s really important for him to go in and have an assessment of this,” said Douglas Harned, an aerospace analyst with Bernstein. “He’s coming in with a clean slate.”
Boeing declined to comment on its internal deliberations over Starliner’s fate. In an internal message shared by the company on Saturday, Mark Nappi, a Boeing vice president and program manager, said staff would gather on Monday to ponder their next steps.
“I know this is not the decision we had hoped for, but we stand ready to carry out the actions necessary to support NASA’s decision. The focus remains first and foremost on ensuring the safety of the crew and spacecraft,” Nappi said.
Even before this weekend’s setback, there were signs Boeing’s long-term commitment to Starliner was in question. Late last year, Chief Financial Officer Brian West told a small gathering of investors that the company had a decision to make about future investment in the program after it fulfills its obligations to NASA for a half-dozen flights to the ISS.
NASA faces critical trade offs of its own as it maps out the future of the commercial crew program.
The agency designed the program from the outset to have more than one US spacecraft to take its astronauts and cargo to orbit. While Starliner has fallen seven years behind schedule, SpaceX has launched nine separate crews to the space station for NASA since 2020.
For all its setbacks, Boeing remains the agency’s best hope for pursuing a multiplayer strategy, Swope said. If Boeing were to back out of its contract, “That’s not a good outcome for NASA either. They’d have to start over with commercial crew,” Swope said.
The agency could work with Sierra Space to escalate plans for a crewed version of its Dream Chaser vehicle, which lost out to Boeing and SpaceX in the original bidding a decade ago. But that’s years away given delays to a cargo version of the craft.
Given the stakes, Swope thinks NASA will try to work out a way forward that keeps Boeing in the commercial crew program while addressing some of its financial pain. If the aerospace giant needs to send Starliner into space autonomously to test its glitch-prone thrusters, perhaps the agency could convert that into a cargo mission, he said.
Space is far from the only problem facing Ortberg, a veteran aerospace leader who came out of retirement to take the CEO role at Boeing. He’s expected to get his executive team in place and then tackle tougher issues like the quality lapses and poor execution across Boeing’s enterprise.
“If Boeing can fix its commercial airplanes business, what happens in space is a lot less relevant,” said Spingarn of Melius Research.