
正如美國偉大的哲學家尤吉·貝拉所說的那樣:“世事難以預料,,尤其是預測未來,?!北M管如此,麥肯錫全球研究院(McKinsey Global Institute,,MGI)最近列出了可能在未來15年內(nèi)改變商業(yè)格局的18個“競爭領(lǐng)域”,。
競爭領(lǐng)域指收入和市值快速增長且高活力(以領(lǐng)先公司的更替率衡量)的行業(yè)。為了確定這18個領(lǐng)域,,麥肯錫評估了哪些行業(yè)正在經(jīng)歷技術(shù)和商業(yè)模式方面的突破,,這些突破在歷史上曾是競爭領(lǐng)域的特征。這個名單一部分來自2005年至2020年間出現(xiàn)的12個競爭領(lǐng)域,,但也有一些全新的領(lǐng)域,。這18個領(lǐng)域涵蓋了廣泛的行業(yè)(如網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全、核裂變),、商品(如電動汽車,、減肥藥)和活動(如視頻游戲、航空出行)等,,涉及從個人家庭(模塊化建筑)到宇宙(太空)的各個方面,。
預測未來的競爭領(lǐng)域并不是一門精確的科學,每個領(lǐng)域各自的發(fā)展軌跡更加具有不確定性,。但可以肯定的是,,這18個領(lǐng)域?qū)⒃诤艽蟪潭壬现厮芪磥淼纳虡I(yè)、社會和地球本身,。
創(chuàng)新領(lǐng)袖
為了說明這些領(lǐng)域的規(guī)模,,在2005年,現(xiàn)有的12個競爭領(lǐng)域產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟利潤,幾乎占全球市值最高的3,000家公司經(jīng)濟利潤的十分之一,。到2019年,,這一比例達到了二分之一。關(guān)鍵在于,,這不僅僅是大公司繼續(xù)壯大的故事(盡管許多確實是大公司),。到2020年,在這12個領(lǐng)域中,,曾經(jīng)在2005年還是“局外人”的公司市值占比達到三分之一,。“局外人”意味著這些公司在2005年還不存在或因規(guī)模太小而不足以被納入樣本,。這12個領(lǐng)域中的公司在創(chuàng)新和投資方面也發(fā)揮了重要作用,,其研發(fā)投入占銷售額的比例是非競爭領(lǐng)域公司的兩倍,。
在18個潛在競爭領(lǐng)域中的強勢地位可能帶來巨大的好處,。麥肯錫估計,到2040年,,這些領(lǐng)域可能占全球GDP的16%,,總收入達到29萬億至48萬億美元。此外,,幾乎每家公司都與某個競爭領(lǐng)域存在某種聯(lián)系,,例如使用半導體、開采生產(chǎn)電池的關(guān)鍵礦物,、訪問云端或通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全保護數(shù)據(jù)等,。
好消息是,美國在所有這些高增長,、高利潤和高活力行業(yè)中都處于優(yōu)勢地位,。在三分之二未來競爭領(lǐng)域中,前10大公司至少有一半是北美公司,。在電子商務(wù)和半導體領(lǐng)域,,前10大公司中有7家來自美國,在云服務(wù)領(lǐng)域則有8家,。幾項對未來競爭領(lǐng)域增長至關(guān)重要的技術(shù),,如人工智能(AI)和自動駕駛等,都起源于硅谷,。
保持這種強勢地位并非理所當然,。對于私營部門的商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖來說,他們需要回答一些困難的問題,,首先是他們是否屬于或者可能進入競爭領(lǐng)域,。如果答案是肯定的,那么他們還要回答更多問題:資本從哪里來?如何創(chuàng)造價值,?會面臨哪些風險,?應(yīng)該多快采取行動?是否擁有必要的人才,?運營模式,?企業(yè)文化?對于投資者來說,,關(guān)鍵在于確定恰當?shù)倪M場時機,,當然還有面對競爭領(lǐng)域所帶來的相關(guān)變化如何進行投資。
無論是初創(chuàng)公司還是老牌公司,,客戶和供應(yīng)商都需要解決如何增強競爭能力的問題,,無論是通過發(fā)展人力資本(招聘、教育和培訓),、進行技術(shù)投資,、進入新業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)域,還是綜合采用這些方法,。
公共部門的領(lǐng)導人也需要參與其中,。在確定競爭領(lǐng)域的增長潛力、受益者和如何管理社會風險等方面,,貿(mào)易和監(jiān)管政策將發(fā)揮重要作用,。例如,能源轉(zhuǎn)型的速度將影響電動汽車和電池等領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展軌跡,,以及清潔氫能等接近潛在競爭領(lǐng)域的行業(yè)是否會加入其中,。
在基礎(chǔ)層面,如果競爭領(lǐng)域按照麥肯錫預測的方向發(fā)展,,它們將給日常生活帶來重大變化,,尤其是城市生活將受到影響。共享自動駕駛汽車如何改變公共空間和出行模式,?模塊化建筑能否幫助解決住房可負擔性問題,?減肥藥物可能對公共健康產(chǎn)生什么影響?這18個領(lǐng)域,,無論是單獨來看還是從整體層面看,,都對城市經(jīng)濟增長以及居民的健康、財富和生計具有重要影響,。
未來充滿不確定性
未來的發(fā)展遠未成定局,。結(jié)果將取決于公司如何投資,領(lǐng)導者如何設(shè)定優(yōu)先事項,,以及私營和公共部門如何合作,。15年后,麥肯錫的一些預測可能甚至極有可能被證明是錯誤的。現(xiàn)在不存在的行業(yè)可能會擠進名單,,現(xiàn)有的行業(yè)可能會衰退,,地緣政治可能會顛覆商業(yè)環(huán)境, 現(xiàn)在未知的技術(shù)可能會出現(xiàn),。
競爭領(lǐng)域的活力確實意味著波動性,。在2005-2020年間的12個領(lǐng)域中,如支付和工業(yè)電子等幾個領(lǐng)域并沒有進入未來的18個競爭領(lǐng)域,。同樣值得注意的是,,2005年按市值排名前20的公司中,到2024年9月只有四家仍然在榜單上,。正如尤吉·貝拉所說:“未來不再像過去那樣,。”
然而,,我們也可以這樣理解,,盡管麥肯錫可能無法完全準確地預測細節(jié),但增長和繁榮應(yīng)該給我們所有人帶來希望和感到樂觀,,而這些增長和繁榮很可能來自這18個領(lǐng)域,。它們有望解決我們今天面臨的一些最嚴峻的難題,從而改善我們的生活和生計,。
要實現(xiàn)這一目標,我們需要在勞動力發(fā)展和有效監(jiān)管等方面不斷進步,。預測未來存在風險,,但為未來做好準備卻能防范風險。(財富中文網(wǎng))
本評論文章來自《財富》全球論壇的贊助商麥肯錫,。本文作者埃里克·庫徹為美國灣區(qū)的一位高級合伙人和麥肯錫北美區(qū)董事長兼管理合伙人,。
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
正如美國偉大的哲學家尤吉·貝拉所說的那樣:“世事難以預料,尤其是預測未來,?!北M管如此,麥肯錫全球研究院(McKinsey Global Institute,,MGI)最近列出了可能在未來15年內(nèi)改變商業(yè)格局的18個“競爭領(lǐng)域”,。
競爭領(lǐng)域指收入和市值快速增長且高活力(以領(lǐng)先公司的更替率衡量)的行業(yè)。為了確定這18個領(lǐng)域,,麥肯錫評估了哪些行業(yè)正在經(jīng)歷技術(shù)和商業(yè)模式方面的突破,,這些突破在歷史上曾是競爭領(lǐng)域的特征。這個名單一部分來自2005年至2020年間出現(xiàn)的12個競爭領(lǐng)域,,但也有一些全新的領(lǐng)域,。這18個領(lǐng)域涵蓋了廣泛的行業(yè)(如網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全、核裂變)、商品(如電動汽車,、減肥藥)和活動(如視頻游戲,、航空出行)等,涉及從個人家庭(模塊化建筑)到宇宙(太空)的各個方面,。
預測未來的競爭領(lǐng)域并不是一門精確的科學,,每個領(lǐng)域各自的發(fā)展軌跡更加具有不確定性。但可以肯定的是,,這18個領(lǐng)域?qū)⒃诤艽蟪潭壬现厮芪磥淼纳虡I(yè),、社會和地球本身。
創(chuàng)新領(lǐng)袖
為了說明這些領(lǐng)域的規(guī)模,,在2005年,,現(xiàn)有的12個競爭領(lǐng)域產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟利潤,幾乎占全球市值最高的3,000家公司經(jīng)濟利潤的十分之一,。到2019年,,這一比例達到了二分之一。關(guān)鍵在于,,這不僅僅是大公司繼續(xù)壯大的故事(盡管許多確實是大公司),。到2020年,在這12個領(lǐng)域中,,曾經(jīng)在2005年還是“局外人”的公司市值占比達到三分之一,。“局外人”意味著這些公司在2005年還不存在或因規(guī)模太小而不足以被納入樣本,。這12個領(lǐng)域中的公司在創(chuàng)新和投資方面也發(fā)揮了重要作用,,其研發(fā)投入占銷售額的比例是非競爭領(lǐng)域公司的兩倍。
在18個潛在競爭領(lǐng)域中的強勢地位可能帶來巨大的好處,。麥肯錫估計,,到2040年,這些領(lǐng)域可能占全球GDP的16%,,總收入達到29萬億至48萬億美元,。此外,幾乎每家公司都與某個競爭領(lǐng)域存在某種聯(lián)系,,例如使用半導體,、開采生產(chǎn)電池的關(guān)鍵礦物、訪問云端或通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全保護數(shù)據(jù)等,。
好消息是,,美國在所有這些高增長、高利潤和高活力行業(yè)中都處于優(yōu)勢地位,。在三分之二未來競爭領(lǐng)域中,,前10大公司至少有一半是北美公司,。在電子商務(wù)和半導體領(lǐng)域,前10大公司中有7家來自美國,,在云服務(wù)領(lǐng)域則有8家,。幾項對未來競爭領(lǐng)域增長至關(guān)重要的技術(shù),如人工智能(AI)和自動駕駛等,,都起源于硅谷,。
保持這種強勢地位并非理所當然。對于私營部門的商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖來說,,他們需要回答一些困難的問題,,首先是他們是否屬于或者可能進入競爭領(lǐng)域。如果答案是肯定的,,那么他們還要回答更多問題:資本從哪里來,?如何創(chuàng)造價值?會面臨哪些風險,?應(yīng)該多快采取行動,?是否擁有必要的人才?運營模式,?企業(yè)文化,?對于投資者來說,關(guān)鍵在于確定恰當?shù)倪M場時機,,當然還有面對競爭領(lǐng)域所帶來的相關(guān)變化如何進行投資,。
無論是初創(chuàng)公司還是老牌公司,客戶和供應(yīng)商都需要解決如何增強競爭能力的問題,,無論是通過發(fā)展人力資本(招聘,、教育和培訓)、進行技術(shù)投資,、進入新業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)域,還是綜合采用這些方法,。
公共部門的領(lǐng)導人也需要參與其中,。在確定競爭領(lǐng)域的增長潛力、受益者和如何管理社會風險等方面,,貿(mào)易和監(jiān)管政策將發(fā)揮重要作用,。例如,能源轉(zhuǎn)型的速度將影響電動汽車和電池等領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展軌跡,,以及清潔氫能等接近潛在競爭領(lǐng)域的行業(yè)是否會加入其中,。
在基礎(chǔ)層面,如果競爭領(lǐng)域按照麥肯錫預測的方向發(fā)展,,它們將給日常生活帶來重大變化,,尤其是城市生活將受到影響,。共享自動駕駛汽車如何改變公共空間和出行模式?模塊化建筑能否幫助解決住房可負擔性問題,?減肥藥物可能對公共健康產(chǎn)生什么影響,?這18個領(lǐng)域,無論是單獨來看還是從整體層面看,,都對城市經(jīng)濟增長以及居民的健康,、財富和生計具有重要影響。
未來充滿不確定性
未來的發(fā)展遠未成定局,。結(jié)果將取決于公司如何投資,,領(lǐng)導者如何設(shè)定優(yōu)先事項,以及私營和公共部門如何合作,。15年后,,麥肯錫的一些預測可能甚至極有可能被證明是錯誤的。現(xiàn)在不存在的行業(yè)可能會擠進名單,,現(xiàn)有的行業(yè)可能會衰退,,地緣政治可能會顛覆商業(yè)環(huán)境, 現(xiàn)在未知的技術(shù)可能會出現(xiàn),。
競爭領(lǐng)域的活力確實意味著波動性,。在2005-2020年間的12個領(lǐng)域中,如支付和工業(yè)電子等幾個領(lǐng)域并沒有進入未來的18個競爭領(lǐng)域,。同樣值得注意的是,,2005年按市值排名前20的公司中,到2024年9月只有四家仍然在榜單上,。正如尤吉·貝拉所說:“未來不再像過去那樣,。”
然而,,我們也可以這樣理解,,盡管麥肯錫可能無法完全準確地預測細節(jié),但增長和繁榮應(yīng)該給我們所有人帶來希望和感到樂觀,,而這些增長和繁榮很可能來自這18個領(lǐng)域,。它們有望解決我們今天面臨的一些最嚴峻的難題,從而改善我們的生活和生計,。
要實現(xiàn)這一目標,,我們需要在勞動力發(fā)展和有效監(jiān)管等方面不斷進步。預測未來存在風險,,但為未來做好準備卻能防范風險,。(財富中文網(wǎng))
本評論文章來自《財富》全球論壇的贊助商麥肯錫。本文作者埃里克·庫徹為美國灣區(qū)的一位高級合伙人和麥肯錫北美區(qū)董事長兼管理合伙人,。
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
As that great American philosopher Yogi Berra once mused, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Nonetheless, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) recently named 18 “arenas of competition” that could transform the business landscape over the next 15 years.
Arenas of competition are defined as industries with fast-growing revenues and market cap and high dynamism (as measured by the turnover of companies at the top). To identify the list of 18, MGI assessed which industries are seeing the kind of technology and business model breakthroughs that have characterized arenas historically. The list includes some of the 12 arenas that emerged between 2005 and 2020, but many are new. The 18 cover a wide range of sectors (cybersecurity, nuclear fission); of goods (electric vehicles, obesity drugs) and of activity (video games, air mobility). They touch on everything from individual homes (modular construction) to the universe (space).
Predicting the arenas of the future is not an exact science, and their individual trajectories are even more uncertain. But it is likely that these 18 will go a long way to shape the future not only of business, but of society and the planet itself.
Leaders in innovation
To give an idea of the scale, in 2005, the 12 existing arenas generated almost a tenth of economic profit of the top 3,000 global companies by market capitalization. In 2019, it was half. Crucially, this was not only a matter of the big getting bigger (although many did). In 2020, a third of the market cap of those in the 12 arenas was held by companies that had been “outsiders” in 2005, meaning that they didn’t exist or were too small to be part of the sample. Companies in the 12 arenas also played an outsized role in innovation and investment, with twice the R&D per sales of companies that were not in arena industries.
The benefits of strength in the 18 potential arenas could be huge. McKinsey estimates that they could account for 16% of global GDP by 2040, with total revenues reaching $29 trillion to $48 trillion. Moreover, almost every company has some connection to an arena, such as using semiconductors, mining critical minerals for batteries, accessing the cloud, or protecting their data through cybersecurity.
The good news is that the U.S. is well positioned in all these high-growth, high-profit, and dynamic industries. North American companies account for at least half of the top 10 companies in two-thirds of the future arenas. In e-commerce and semiconductors, the U.S. is home to seven of the top 10 companies, and in cloud services eight of the top 10. Several of the technologies that are key to the growth of future arenas, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous vehicles, originated in Silicon Valley.
Maintaining this position of strength is not a given. For private-sector business leaders, it will require facing difficult questions, starting with whether they are, or could be, in an arena. If they are, the questions proliferate: Where will the capital come from? How can we create value? What are the risks? How fast should we move? Do we have the necessary talent? Operating model? Culture? For investors, it’s about determining the right time to get in, and of course how you invest given the change associated with the arenas.
Across the board startups and incumbents, customers and suppliers will want to address how to develop the capabilities to compete, whether that is through human capital development (recruitment, education, and training), investing in technology, entering new businesses, or some combination.
Public sector leaders also need to engage. Trade and regulatory policies will play an important role in determining to what extent the arenas will grow, who will benefit, and how to manage the social risks. For example, the pace of the energy transition will be influential in determining the trajectory of arenas like electric vehicles and batteries, and also whether close-to-potential-arena sectors like clean hydrogen join the club.
At the grassroots level, if the arenas progress along the lines predicted by MGI, they will bring substantial changes to daily life, especially in cities. How could shared autonomous vehicles change public spaces and travel patterns? Could modular construction help address housing affordability? What kind of effect could obesity drugs have on public health? The 18 arenas, individually and collectively, have implications not only for urban economic growth, but for the health, wealth, and livelihoods of their residents.
The future is uncertain
How the future plays out is far from written in stone. Outcomes will be determined by how businesses invest, how leaders set priorities, and how the private and public sectors work together. It is certainly possible, and even likely, that 15 years from now, it will be apparent that MGI got some of these wrong. Industries that do not exist now could muscle their way onto the list. Incumbents could falter. Geopolitics could up-end the business environment. Now-unknown technologies could emerge.
Indeed, the dynamism that characterizes the arenas implies volatility. Some of the 12 sectors in the 2005-20 arenas, such as payments and industrial electronics, are not included in the 18 future ones. It bears remembering, too, that of the top 20 companies by market cap in 2005, only four remained as of September 2024. As Yogi Berra wisely said, “The future ain’t what it used to be.”
What can also be said, though, is that while MGI might not get the details precisely right, the growth and prosperity should give us all hope and optimism, most likely sits in these 18 arenas. They hold the promise of solving some of the biggest problems we experience today and thus improving both lives and livelihoods.
For that to happen, we will need to evolve, for example in the form of workforce development and effective regulation. Predicting the future is a risky business; preparing for it is not.
This commentary is from McKinsey, a Fortune Global Forum sponsor. Eric Kutcher is a senior partner in the Bay Area and McKinsey & Company’s chair and managing partner, North America.